Matt Smith

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From our perspective, the crack spread – the profitability of refining crude products – has just dropped below year-ago levels and yet we're seeing refinery runs hitting an absolute high last week of over 17.3 million barrels a day, and so it is a concern.feedback
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Apr 26 2017 Oil
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Matt Smith is associated, including OPEC and U.S.. Most recently, Matt Smith has been quoted saying: “From our perspective, the crack spread – the profitability of refining crude products – has just dropped below year-ago levels and yet we're seeing refinery runs hitting an absolute high last week of over 17.3 million barrels a day, and so it is a concern.” in the article Surging gasoline stockpiles undercut bullish drop in US crude inventories. An other article where Matt Smith has been quoted is After Aung San Suu Kyi’s First Year in Power, Dismay Swirls in Myanmar.
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Matt Smith quotes

As bullish positioning by hedge funds continues to push on in unchartered territory, the risk of a swift, sharp snapback in prices continues to build. Especially given the bearish backdrop of record crude and gasoline inventories amid lower fuel demand year-on-year.feedback

China is experiencing colder-than-normal conditions, demand has kicked higher and prices have followed.feedback

We have had a triumvirate of bearish builds from today's report. Counter-seasonal strength in refinery runs have boosted product inventories, while stronger imports have bolstered crude stocks.feedback

The large crude draw can entirely be explained away by the 7.1 million-barrel draw to Gulf coast inventories, as tax mitigation strategies meant crude cargoes remained offshore, rather than being brought onshore, where they would be taxed.feedback

Really, these guys have been going hell for leather here, pedal to the metal, before screeching to a halt as they try to reach compliance. It's the most transparent way we have to see if they're adhering to the production cuts, given they depend upon these exports for revenues. They would be the last thing to be cut.feedback

I'd say this video throws a stick in the spokes.feedback

Emerging market demand, and specifically from China, has been really strong in 2016. However, they've been on these sort of bouts of bargain hunting and opportunistic purchases to essentially fill their stockpiles, their strategic reserves. And so, as prices rise, and as they've risen recently, we're likely to see less of that bargain hunting next year.feedback

Mixed fleet crew earn just over the minimum wage and below the national average.feedback

Recently, due to the OPEC decision, that has blown that spread out again and that will only further serve to incentivize higher exports.feedback

It is still in testing the phase. The export ban was lifted last last year, and since then, we're seeing this evolution of the U.S. export industry, as there's this period of exploration to figure out how best to get these exports out, how to make this work economically.feedback

That's 200,000 barrels that will be coming to market that someone else will have to cut to balance the market.feedback

The solid builds to the products, despite being a seasonal trend, are helping to usher the crude complex lower.feedback

The key to all of this is really is whether these cuts will be implemented. That is the big question.feedback

Crude inventories have yielded a modest surprise draw in this week's report, led by a big drop in crude inventories on the East coast amid lower imports - even though refinery runs also dropped off.feedback

The report is fairly neutral; mildly bullish crude, modestly bearish for the products.feedback

On the whole, the report is a welcome distraction from OPEC talk, but fairly neutral on the whole.feedback

They're clawing some of that market share from others, but they're also helping to fill that gap of increasing demand.feedback

You think that prices dictate flows, but when it comes to China, it's such a large part of the market, it's the other way around. Their demand dictates prices.feedback

The lifting of the U.S. export ban meant that WTI [crude oil] came back in line with other global benchmarks. Combine this with falling production from Bakken [shale formation], and it became more economical for U.S. East Coast refiners to import Nigerian crude rather than domestic crude by rail economics.feedback

Most of the large exporters in the world have all been increasing exports in the last month, and this crude has to go somewhere. Even though U.S. production is ticking higher again, we're still seeing strong imports.feedback

We are likely to get some sort of positive rhetoric out of the group. Saudi is trying to push for some sort of agreement, and should we get that, we should see a bit of a bump in prices.feedback

(Morgan) allows you to peak behind this royal veil that we all are aware of...and that's really engaging emotionally and interesting.feedback

Going forward, we should see refinery runs starting to increase, these refineries coming out of maintenance, and then a return to imports and a return to builds.feedback

Until we get some actual physical barrels being taken off the market or we get some actual levels put in place, then it is just words and no action.feedback

We are already seeing gasoline cargoes being redirected for the East Coast – both to avoid the storm, and to fill the supply loss after.feedback

So you see false indicators to demand when people fill up tanks due to shortage fears and that adds another layer of complexity.feedback

This decision was hasty and fails to recognize political realities on the ground.feedback

I think it puts you deeper inside a game, deeper inside a universe or a situation that you've never imagined before.feedback

It's much more stressful when we have unfair wind.feedback

OPEC members including Venezuela, Ecuador and Kuwait are said to be behind this latest reincarnation. But just like previous endeavours, it seems doomed to fail, given key OPEC members (think: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran) persist in their battle for market share, ramping up exports apace.feedback

Speculators increased their shorts by the biggest volume on record... for WTI crude..., dragging the net long position in WTI to its lowest since February. Another bearish development from the CFTC data has been gasoline positioning. Speculative positions in gasoline have moved to a record net short position as hedge funds bet on an ongoing gasoline supply glut.feedback

I see it going lower from here. We have this glut here in the U.S. not only in crude but for products, as well. We're actually at record inventories for the two of those.feedback

Ongoing fears of oversupply are encouraging hedge funds to liquidate their recent record bullish position; at the same time, we are also seeing a corresponding increase in speculative short positions.feedback

Bullish momentum from a technical perspective, in cahoots with dovish Fed rhetoric, has this market on fire again despite the crude inventories we're seeing.feedback

Distillates are the standout bullish element of the report and gasoline is the disappointment.feedback

The material loss in production from the Kuwait strike has helped the oil market forget about the farce from Doha.feedback

Who is actually going to be there to buy this stuff? If there's a legitimate party, they are going to demand a significant discount.feedback

The data poses a bit of a conundrum, in that crude stocks still increased so much despite strong refining runs and an apparent drop in imports.feedback

The comments out of Kuwait have encouraged the sell-off and it appears likely that a focus on weekly oil inventories will encourage prices lower.feedback

It still feels like this is a sucker's rally. We've pushed higher on more talk and less action on supply balancing.feedback

The IEA report was a bearish blow, followed by the EIA report, which sings from the same hymn sheet.feedback

Geopolitical tension presents the greatest upside risk to the crude market, at least through the first half of the year.feedback

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