Matthew Graham - Mortgage News Daily

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Bond markets (which drive mortgage rates) benefited from investors seeking safe haven after headlines broke regarding North Korea's nuclear threats against South Korea and the U.S. Other geopolitical considerations regarding Russia's potential involvement with Syrian gas attacks and the French election added to the bond market gains.feedback
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Apr 12 2017 South Korea
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Matthew Graham is associated, including Fed and December. Most recently, Matthew Graham has been quoted saying: “Although the minutes are merely a more detailed account of the Fed meeting from mid-March, they can nonetheless cause significant volatility for rates.” in the article Mortgage applications fall 1.6%, but average loan size hits record high. An other article where Matthew Graham has been quoted is Mortgage applications rise 3.1% as borrowers rush to lock in rates.
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Matthew Graham quotes

Banks adjust jumbo rates more slowly, because they're not directly tied to actively traded securities.feedback

The situation on the ground is panicked. Damage control. People were trying to lock loans quickly last week and are now facing a tough choice to lock today or hope for a bounce. Many hoped for a bounce last week heading into the long weekend and we obviously didn't get it.feedback

Sometimes a simple momentum analogy is that of swimming. It's easier to swim with the current versus against it.feedback

Even I was surprised to see how quickly lenders pulled back today. Different lenders have moved by different amounts, but on average, the 2 day total is 0.25 percent!feedback

The average lender is quoting conventional 30-year-fixed rates of 3.625 percent on top tier scenarios, though several remain at 3.5 percent.feedback

But that would be a premature conclusion until we see how markets react to Thursday's announcement from the European Central Bank. Bottom line, the past few days have been helpful, but everything could still change.feedback

Floating is risky here. Even though today's rates are closer to the highest levels of the past two months, they're still historically close to all-time lows.feedback

We were left to wonder if this was the first step in a move up and out of the recent sideways range.feedback

This gives investors a chance to examine the Fed's discussion leading up to the late July policy announcement in greater detail. At the moment, everyone is looking for clues about the Fed's thoughts on hiking rates at the September or December meeting. If the minutes make it seem like September is more likely, rates could easily continue higher.feedback

With 10yr yields ending the day near 1.55 percent, rates are essentially threatening to move higher. The next three days bring a series of important economic reports that could act as motivation for such a move, if they turn out to be stronger than expected.feedback

Everyone with a potential loan in process wants to know if rates will drop further or if they should lock to avoid the risk of rates snapping back.feedback

That could change though. One of the reasons rates haven't been more volatile is the fact that the Brexit vote is seen as being fairly even. As soon as a clear victor emerges, rates could move swiftly. A 'remain' vote could cause a much quicker move higher in rates on Friday morning.feedback

If we'd lost ground, it would have confirmed a negative signal about momentum in the short to medium term. Now we have a fighting chance to see if momentum can build in a friendlier direction.feedback

I'm getting a lot of reports from lenders about their clients who missed opportunities to lock in mid to late February, and who finally saw rates move low enough to pull the trigger. The current week is still up in the air, but rates had been holding their ground through Tuesday, despite some ominous weakness in underlying bond markets.feedback

Someone might see the average closing time go from 46 to 49 days and assume that's not significant, but when you look at the amount of homes that close in a three-day time span on average (not to mention some additional unmeasured delays occurring before the loan application is taken), we can almost fully account for the massive drop in existing home sales in November.feedback

Bond markets continue defying the odds so far in 2016.feedback

Given the Fed rate hike and strong ADP data yesterday – among other reasonably decent economic anecdotes – we would be more justified in expecting bonds to be under pressure at the start of the year.feedback

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