Last quote by Michael Cohen
Michael Cohen quotes
At the end of the day, what Saudi Arabia is worried about is they wanted to get the engine started on investment. They don't see it starting when oil is at $35 to $45.
Three things have changed since Algiers. One is Trump was elected. Two, the earnings season showed U.S. oil producers were more resilient, and the third is the return of output from Libya and Nigeria.
Everything is posturing before Nov. 30, every minister is going to be there talking their own book. There's nothing else; everything else is speculation until all those ministers are in a room on Nov. 30, and they have their options laid out before them.
Something's got to give here, and the recipe for Saudi Arabia and Iran to come to the table and put something together is getting more difficult. We should all prepare for big oil price gyrations in the next few days.
Remember these are politicians. They want to protect the downside; if they can find a way to save face and kick the can to February or March, they're going to do it.
If you get a big price reaction to the upside, it's not going to be overnight, but shale production stands to make a bigger impact next year.
I still am of the view there will be a face-saving measure. They'll put together a cut that (makes official) what they were going to do anyway.
The likely scenario is a face-saving measure that doesn't change the balance.
It's going to be placed into a blind trust. The children – Don, Ivanka, Eric, they're really intelligent. They're really qualified. … He's very comfortable with them at the helm and the people who will surround them.
I'm a little bit concerned with the way market structure has been moving the past couple of days.
It's not abnormal for them to reduce output after the summer months.
There's a significant chance that next year we'll have a global oil market balance that is in deficit for the first time in two years, so there's a natural rebalancing taking place irrespective of what happens with this plan.
They're in a period of economic contraction, so when you do the calculation, the short-term gains of a $5 to $10 higher oil price may be better in a one- to two-year time frame than capturing additional market share.
The best we can expect from Russian output next year is a freeze or a stable output at end of year levels, and that's not different from what they would otherwise do.
Some of the exports have returned in Nigeria and I do think we'll see Libyan production come in, in fits and starts.
Our base case is we don't expect anything to come out of that meeting and these comments from Zanganeh support the fact that the Iranians are not going to be hemmed in by any restraints on their output at this point.
We don't think they can stay here during this quarter, because we're in the midst of a shoulder season and the fundamentals are that inventories are still high and supply is not adjusting fast enough. For Q4, we think a $50 price by then is justified. We could see mid $50s or even $60 by the end of the year.
I think the OPEC rumors are a side show to what's really going on within OPEC, between Saudi Arabia and Iran. I think tensions remain extremely high. Iran has not reached its peak production level. I think it's still about 200,000 barrels away.
This man performed a ridiculous and dangerous stunt. I'm 100 percent certain the NYPD had better things to do.
We've already basically gone through, for the most part, half of the summer, and so now with inventories at these very high levels, we have to see the market adjust.
There's got to be a reckoning that we only have a few weeks left of peak gasoline demand, and then we hit a shoulder season.
For the last 6 quarters there's been this discrepancy between global supply and global demand.
I think (the hedging) gives producers more security to lock in a capex plan.
There's a potential for this to cause further unrest, and I think that's the real issue. The thing to understand is while the threat may be higher, the ways in which Saudi Arabia has mitigated that threat has improved over the last decade.