Michael Feroli

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Last quote by Michael Feroli

It feels like we are at a transition to somewhat more regular increases. I think for now the coast looks clear.
Mar 15 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Michael Feroli is associated, including Fed, September, and datum. Most recently, Michael Feroli has been quoted saying: “They are going to take al ot of comfort that market pricing for the March meeting moved from something in the 30s [percent odds] to high in the 80s…We didn't get a rip in the dollar. We didn't get a step back in equities. It is a harder to get the median to increase to four hikes, but given the recent rhetoric that can't be ruled out.” in the article Three reasons the Fed wants to hike rates in March.
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Michael Feroli quotes

These changes were modest but in an optimistic direction, and the improved risk assessment could begin to lay the groundwork for a hike in a few meetings' time, provided the data cooperate. We continue to look for a second rate hike in December, and we still believe we'd need to see some blockbuster employment and inflation data to make September a realistic possibility.

On the heels of the Brexit developments we are pushing back our Fed call from September to December; there is exceptionally low visibility on the monetary policy outlook right now.

For the Fed, it seems safe to say that a June hike is off the table. For now we are sticking with our July call but recognize the likelihood has gone down quite a bit and that we'll need to see a sharp turnaround in the activity data for that to play out.

The simplest explanation is that job growth tends to respond with a lag to GDP growth, and GDP growth was rather weak around the turn of the year. This would suggest job growth should recover along with overall growth in economic activity.

Today's report raised some eyebrows given the string of negative commentary from retailers, but that juxtaposition is a useful reminder that publicly traded corporations account for a minority of economic activity in the U.S.

It's widely understood that it would be politically treacherous for the Fed to hike just before a very heated election.

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