Michael Feroli


Last quote by Michael Feroli

I think Powell might be the safer pick insofar as we know what we're getting. He's a guy who obviously knows the Fed culture, how the (policy-setting) committee operates, so for some of those soft skills we know he would be effective.feedback
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Oct 20 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Michael Feroli is associated, including Fed, September, and datum. Most recently, Michael Feroli has been quoted saying: “For much of the past five years the standard Taylor rule has prescribed a policy rate higher than the one set by the Fed, and the current prescription is for a policy rate of 3.5 percent, or 2.25 [percentage] points higher than its actual setting.” in the article Trump's apparent favorite to run the Fed is a safe bet unlikely to rock markets.
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Michael Feroli quotes

Apr 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

Giving lip service to strong dollar policy had been accepted for 20 years or more. On interest-rate policy, I think it's tricky, because arguably the third mandate of the Fed is low long-term interest rates. So I don't think just being a low-interest rate person is a problem. I don't think this is per se a threat to Fed independence, but it's definitely a little bit different than what we've become used to.feedback

Mar 31 2017

Some of that weakness may be transitory: warm weather depressed utility spending in January and February to its weakest two month stretch in over 25 years. The slow payout of tax refunds may have also hindered spending growth in the first two months of the year.feedback

Mar 30 2017

In our baseline projection, the Fed slowly phases out MBS reinvestments beginning in the spring of next year, never halts reinvestments of Treasuries, never sells MBS, and reaches its new optimal size of the balance sheet in early 2024, with excess reserves in the banking system of $500 billion.feedback

Mar 15 2017

It feels like we are at a transition to somewhat more regular increases. I think for now the coast looks clear.feedback

Mar 10 2017

It's hard to find much to dislike in the February jobs report.feedback

Mar 02 2017

They are going to take al ot of comfort that market pricing for the March meeting moved from something in the 30s [percent odds] to high in the 80s…We didn't get a rip in the dollar. We didn't get a step back in equities. It is a harder to get the median to increase to four hikes, but given the recent rhetoric that can't be ruled out.feedback

Mar 02 2017

Of course, the Fed hiking in March will increase expectations that the Fed will deliver quarterly rate hikes.feedback

Mar 02 2017

Recently, Fed speakers have been rhetorically asking whether the FOMC is behind the curve. While they consistently answer in the negative, the very fact they are asking the question may belie the doubts in their own heads. Even the most jerry-rigged policy rules have a hard time justifying rates where they are. What has changed is equity markets. Financial conditions have eased considerably over the last little while. The increase in the equity market hasn't been associated with an appreciation in the dollar.feedback

Feb 15 2017

We are pulling forward our expectations for the next Fed rate hike from June to May; we continue to look for two hikes this year, in May and September.feedback

Dec 20 2016

Theoretical evidence suggests the currency appreciation evens the cost out.feedback

Dec 20 2016

There could be a retail profitability margin story that's not being appreciated by economists.feedback

Dec 02 2016

For the Fed, barring a very adverse ... development, a hike at the Dec. 14 meeting appears to be a done deal.feedback

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

Yellen's testimony before Congress ... further cemented in place expectations that the Fed will hike rates next month.feedback

Nov 15 2016

If electoral uncertainty were restraining activity prior to last Tuesday, it is nowhere apparent in the consumer spending data.feedback

Aug 24 2016

For the record, last year there were eight requests at the September meeting, nine in October and 10 in December. Even after today's news, we feel comfortable thinking a September hike remains a long shot. But the discount rate requests also signal that endless delay could strain the cohesiveness of the Committee.feedback

Jul 28 2016

These changes were modest but in an optimistic direction, and the improved risk assessment could begin to lay the groundwork for a hike in a few meetings' time, provided the data cooperate. We continue to look for a second rate hike in December, and we still believe we'd need to see some blockbuster employment and inflation data to make September a realistic possibility.feedback

Jun 24 2016

On the heels of the Brexit developments we are pushing back our Fed call from September to December; there is exceptionally low visibility on the monetary policy outlook right now.feedback

Jun 21 2016

The risk of data dependency is that it becomes data jumpiness.feedback

Jun 03 2016

For the Fed, it seems safe to say that a June hike is off the table. For now we are sticking with our July call but recognize the likelihood has gone down quite a bit and that we'll need to see a sharp turnaround in the activity data for that to play out.feedback

Jun 02 2016

The simplest explanation is that job growth tends to respond with a lag to GDP growth, and GDP growth was rather weak around the turn of the year. This would suggest job growth should recover along with overall growth in economic activity.feedback

May 13 2016

Today's report raised some eyebrows given the string of negative commentary from retailers, but that juxtaposition is a useful reminder that publicly traded corporations account for a minority of economic activity in the U.S.feedback

Jan 11 2016

It's widely understood that it would be politically treacherous for the Fed to hike just before a very heated election.feedback

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