Michael Feroli


Last quote by Michael Feroli

I think this suggests that's not the right tree to be barking up.feedback
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Apr 13 2017 Trump Presidency
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Michael Feroli is associated, including Fed, September, and datum. Most recently, Michael Feroli has been quoted saying: “Giving lip service to strong dollar policy had been accepted for 20 years or more. On interest-rate policy, I think it's tricky, because arguably the third mandate of the Fed is low long-term interest rates. So I don't think just being a low-interest rate person is a problem. I don't think this is per se a threat to Fed independence, but it's definitely a little bit different than what we've become used to.” in the article Trump just broke with two more presidential norms.
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Michael Feroli quotes

There could be a retail profitability margin story that's not being appreciated by economists.feedback

For the Fed, barring a very adverse ... development, a hike at the Dec. 14 meeting appears to be a done deal.feedback

Yellen's testimony before Congress ... further cemented in place expectations that the Fed will hike rates next month.feedback

If electoral uncertainty were restraining activity prior to last Tuesday, it is nowhere apparent in the consumer spending data.feedback

For the record, last year there were eight requests at the September meeting, nine in October and 10 in December. Even after today's news, we feel comfortable thinking a September hike remains a long shot. But the discount rate requests also signal that endless delay could strain the cohesiveness of the Committee.feedback

These changes were modest but in an optimistic direction, and the improved risk assessment could begin to lay the groundwork for a hike in a few meetings' time, provided the data cooperate. We continue to look for a second rate hike in December, and we still believe we'd need to see some blockbuster employment and inflation data to make September a realistic possibility.feedback

On the heels of the Brexit developments we are pushing back our Fed call from September to December; there is exceptionally low visibility on the monetary policy outlook right now.feedback

The risk of data dependency is that it becomes data jumpiness.feedback

For the Fed, it seems safe to say that a June hike is off the table. For now we are sticking with our July call but recognize the likelihood has gone down quite a bit and that we'll need to see a sharp turnaround in the activity data for that to play out.feedback

The simplest explanation is that job growth tends to respond with a lag to GDP growth, and GDP growth was rather weak around the turn of the year. This would suggest job growth should recover along with overall growth in economic activity.feedback

Today's report raised some eyebrows given the string of negative commentary from retailers, but that juxtaposition is a useful reminder that publicly traded corporations account for a minority of economic activity in the U.S.feedback

It's widely understood that it would be politically treacherous for the Fed to hike just before a very heated election.feedback

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