Michael Hewson - CMC Markets

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Last quote by Michael Hewson

Markets are surmising that Emmanuel Macron is a dead certainty to be French President in two weeks' time, and while this is probably the most benign outcome at a time of rising populism it completely overlooks the challenges facing the new French President when he or she takes office on May 8.feedback
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Apr 25 2017 Populism
This page is completely dedicated to what Michael Hewson has to say. All of Michael Hewson’s quotes are organized here by date and topic. The most recent quote attributed to Michael Hewson came from an article called Live World stocks hit all-time high for second straight session and euro steadies below $1.09 as Macron rally continues: “Today's UK public finance data for March is expected to show an increase from the £1.1bn in February to about £2bn keeping the government on course to reducing its overall borrowing on an annualised basis, with the OBR forecasting that the deficit this year would come in around £51.7bn.”.
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Michael Hewson quotes

It's also been a good week for oil and gas producers ... on the back of further gains for oil prices this week, while the weakness of sterling in the last couple of days is also helping.feedback

Last year the Fed guided the markets to expect at least four rate rises this year, guidance that proved to be woefully wide of the mark, and it is likely that they won't want to make the same mistake again. That suggests that Fed chief Janet Yellen can expect some serious cross-examination of how the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) view not only the economy, but also President elect Donald Trump's plans for it.feedback

The biggest future problem facing the bank isn't so much the restructuring program, but the future growth prospects of the Italian economy, which are pretty poor.feedback

I certainly think there's scope for further sterling weakness particularly against the dollar because there's an awful lot of speculation the Federal Reserve may well raise interest rates in December. So from that point of view the Federal Reserve is potentially on a hiking cycle so that could pressure the pound.feedback

It still seems unlikely that the Fed would move in June, firstly because there may not be enough positive data available to act with confidence, and secondly because to do so would suggest that the U.S. central bank doesn't really consider the U.K. referendum a significant enough tail risk, despite all the siren calls to the contrary, from bodies like the IMF, OECD, World Bank, not to mention President Obama.feedback

Confused? Markets certainly are, up one minute and down the next as speculation about the U.S. economy continues to divide opinion, along with speculation about the number of possible rate rises the Fed might decide upon over the course of the remainder of this year.feedback

The change of tone undermines the credibility and consistency of the FOMC's message to the markets at a time when sentiment still remains fragile and emerging markets remain vulnerable to the strength of the greenback.feedback

Coming up to the Easter holiday, people are going to be very reluctant to put more money into these (stock) markets. If anything, they will be more likely to take money out.feedback

Given that stocks have been trading near multi-week highs, more prudent players in the markets pared back some of their recent exposure ahead of the conclusion to today's Federal Reserve rate meeting.feedback

While this would appear to suggest that oil prices may well have found their base for now, thus prompting another sharp short covering rebound, this still stops well short of a commitment by Iran to follow suit in capping their production levels, as they look to finesse their return to the oil market, after an absence of many years.feedback

While we get the latest Fed minutes next week, Yellen's comments today could give a huge steer on how the FOMC views the current market turmoil and whether she acknowledges that financial conditions have tightened.feedback

This morning's results from BP have added to the gloom surrounding the sector.feedback

Shale production and increasing capacity from countries like Russia who need to protect revenue combined with expectations of further Iranian supply mean actual production as well as expectations of future production are rising.feedback

There are rising stockpiles and the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia make any deal on production unlikely.feedback

Unfortunately their industrial relations are mired in the 19th century and not the 21st century. Someone has to give here. Management are looking to impose a solution, essentially, I think, because they don't see any other way.feedback

What we have seen here is a classic case of jaw-boning. It does appear to have worked but I think the barriers to consensus for OPEC and non-OPEC countries still remain as high as ever.feedback

We're in a bit of a price war at the moment, we've got more supply then we've got demand, and I think this is in part a ploy by Saudi Arabia to I think squeeze the shale oil revolution and US producers more than anything else, but at some point I think we could well hit a floor and that floor is probably around the $80 a barrel mark.feedback

Given how long it took them to actually ask for a banking bailout, I certainly wouldn't put it past them to actually have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table to actually get a sovereign bailout. But I think the measure for that would be if Spanish bond yields hit 7.5 percent.feedback

There's a lot of uncertainty with how a new French president would change the political dynamic between Germany and France. I mean, Mr Hollande has already said he wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact, Angela Merkel has implicitly ruled that out. He's also gone on record as saying that he wants to raise the minimum wage and reduce the retirement age, well that's really going to grate with Germany.feedback

This uncertainty is like a cancer in the market. We're really seeing that reflected in asset values. Yes I do think they'll receive the money but given that (Finance Minister Evangelos) Venizelos said the money was more or less guaranteed, why are they delaying it, this just fosters the uncertainty within the market.feedback

Until the situation in the Middle East settles down, you are going to have very wild price swings.feedback

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