Michael Hewson - CMC Markets


Last quote by Michael Hewson

A lack of unanimity wouldn't be too surprising given the number of voices already arguing against such a move, however a lot of these voices are the same voices who were arguing that the bank should cut rates just over a year ago, an occasion where it can be argued that the bank erred in its hastiness to alter policy, and which has undoubtedly contributed to the current mess the bank finds itself in, with respect to high inflation.feedback
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Oct 18 2017
This page is completely dedicated to what Michael Hewson has to say. All of Michael Hewson’s quotes are organized here by date and topic. The most recent quote attributed to Michael Hewson came from an article called Sterling falls ahead of UK labour data: “The markets have already priced the rate hike in and it would probably take a significant disappointment in today's wages and unemployment data to alter that calculation.”.
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Michael Hewson quotes

Jul 27 2017

The safe haven trade for the Swiss franc is starting to unwind.feedback

Jul 27 2017

Last year's high at 93 pence remains possible; however, a break below 89 pence could well open up a move back to the support at 88.70/80 in the short term.feedback

Jul 21 2017

We can be pretty sure that when Draghi sat down for his press conference yesterday the last thing he expected to see was the euro hit its highest level in over two years and for equity markets to slide back. The strength of the euro does appear to be acting as a bit of a headwind for European stocks as they look to close the week sharply lower, in contrast to the performance of UK and US stocks this week.feedback

Jul 14 2017

Nonetheless, judging by the market reaction it appears to have gone down fairly well. The pound has had a bit of a rollercoaster week in spite of a rocky start as some positive economic data and a bit of hawkish commentary helped provide a platform to arrest some of the losses seen in the early part of the week.feedback

Jul 12 2017 - Unemployment

It is expected that this number will rise to 1.9pc, and that over the next few months the gap with inflation will then start to close again, particularly if unemployment continues to remain at 42 year lows of 4.6pc. This number is expected to stay unchanged, while the employment rate is expected to stay at or near its record levels of 74.8pc.feedback

Jul 12 2017

Today's wages data is likely to be closely scrutinised for evidence of a pickup in wage growth having seen a few months of weak and below inflation increases. Last month we saw weekly earnings for April rise 1.7pc excluding bonuses, well below the 2.9pc CPI numbers, which are due out next week.feedback

Jun 21 2017 - Oil

This morning's public sector borrowing figures for are expected to show that in May the government borrowed £7.2bn, down from £9.6bn in April.feedback

Jun 19 2017 - French election 2017

He will also face an enormous amount of resistance on the ground from the vested interests of the trade unions which still wield an enormous amount of influence, and could make life very difficult for the inexperienced new President and his party.feedback

Jun 15 2017

The last two quarters retail sales numbers have been a negative contributor to GDP and unless wages start to pick up and keep track of the rise in prices then it is unlikely that we'll get to see a recovery in spending soon, though input prices would appear to suggest that inflationary pressures may be plateauing in the short term. The sharp rise in inflation seen earlier this doesn't bode well for today's May retail sales with predictions that we could well see a sharp drop of -1pc.feedback

Jun 13 2017 - Brexit

Having started this year at 1.8pc CPI inflation hit 2.7pc in April and looks set to stay at this level in the latest May numbers which are due out later this morning. Core prices have also jumped sharply since the beginning of the year from 1.6pc to 2.4pc in April, though we are expected to see a slight moderation in the May numbers to 2.3pc.feedback

Jun 13 2017 - Brexit

Away from the politics we get to look under the bonnet of the UK economy this week, at a time when there is rising evidence that the UK consumer having enjoyed a post Brexit shopping spree is now scaling back as inflation starts to eat away at average earnings.feedback

Jun 09 2017 - Labour Party

While some have argued that a softer Brexit might ameliorate the downside, there is still the prospect of the contents of the Labour party manifesto. This could well see the pound come under further pressure as well as having consequences for the FTSE100 and FTSE250 when European markets open.feedback

Jun 08 2017 - British elections 2017

We begin with the start of polling in today's UK General election vote and the end of a fairly surprising campaign that was on the face of it a much closer race than had originally anticipated. From an uninspiring Conservative party campaign to a Labour one which went better than expected the pound has held up well, in anticipation that a Labour victory is still thought unlikely.feedback

Jun 07 2017

The ECB doesn't want a strong euro so what better way of pushing it back down against a weakening dollar and pulling the rug out from any potential hawkishness at tomorrow's meeting. They've basically lowered expectations.feedback

Jun 06 2017 - OPEC

This appears to have raised concerns that this could cause the current OPEC deal to fracture, and while Middle East tensions are never a good thing, in the grand scheme of things a fracture seems unlikely given how small Qatar's oil output per day actually is, around 730k a day.feedback

Jun 01 2017

In April, the UK manufacturing sector rebounded strongly to its best performance in three years to 57.3, helped by a strong performance from new orders and output which saw the new work rise at its fastest rate since January 2014. With the latest European indicators showing continued resilience in their latest May numbers there is a good chance that today's UK manufacturing number for May will remain robust. Export orders were particularly strong in April due to the weaker pound and this is expected to continue into May with expectations of a slight slowdown to 56.5.feedback

May 31 2017 - China

Today's economic data releases are expected to show there is increasing evidence that lending is continuing to slow with today's latest consumer credit and mortgage data expected to show a slight slowdown in April, though we have seen consumer confidence for May show some improvement, coming in at -5, from -7 in April.feedback

May 26 2017

With the pound already under pressure due to weaker than expected economic data, this surprise poll has acted as an additional catalyst in pushing the pound to a two-month low against the euro and its lowest level this month against the US dollar. Having started the campaign on a 'strong and stable' footing, recent policy mis-steps by Mrs May have seen the election campaign take on the look of an 'ugly contest' of mediocre candidates, and that appears to be being reflected in the recent performance of the pound.feedback

May 25 2017 - OPEC

There is also the prospect that even if we do get what markets expect oil prices will slide back anyway, given that we are already well over 10pc above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.feedback

May 23 2017 - Greece

Today's UK public finances for April are expected to show a deficit of £8.8bn for April, as we start a new tax year, and up from the £5.1bn seen in March. This year's numbers will be particularly important given that last year's full year deficit was £52bn, considerably better than was expected at the end of last year.feedback

May 18 2017 - Easter

While March was a surprisingly bad month, it could merely been a case of consumers holding back ahead of Easter, as all the indicators seen in recent data from food retailers suggested that shoppers recovered some of their mojo in April. The latest BRC retail sales numbers from last week showed that, and today's retail sales numbers are expected to show a rise of 1.2pc.feedback

May 17 2017 - U.S. National Security Adviser

There remains a concern however that the what is going on in Washington will prove too much of a distraction to the US administration as yet another story breaks about presidential interference, this time in the FBI investigation into Michael Flynn, the US Presidents former National Security Advisor. As a result we could well see little in the way of anything tangible in the way of reform, tax cuts or infrastructure projects away from all the firefighting by White House officials.feedback

May 16 2017

McCafferty could break ranks because he's got previous having called for rate hikes on two previous occasions, and Saunders given his recent comments to small businesses last month. RPI is expected to rise to 3.4pc from 3.1pc.feedback

May 16 2017

It is expected that we could get a jump to 2.6pc, while core prices could also jump above the 2pc level, from 1.8pc to 2.2pc. If we do indeed get a sharp jump in CPI then it is likely to increase the prospect of further splits on the Bank of England monetary policy committee, with Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty the two most likely to break ranks, and push for a rise in rates.feedback

May 08 2017 - Unemployment

Knowing all of this the new French President may well find that winning was the easy bit.feedback

May 05 2017 - US, Russia relations

The FTSE100 was held back by a collapse in crude oil prices to their lowest levels since last November, on the back of concerns about slowing demand from China, rising US output, and a reticence on the part of Russia to commit to extending the quota cap into the end of this year.feedback

May 05 2017 - OPEC

This was later clarified by the Russian energy minister who said the OPEC cuts deal should be extended, a little late in the day it has to be said, though probably nothing to do with the fact that prices closed at their worst levels in five months, maybe.feedback

May 04 2017

This week's UK data has showed evidence of a decent pickup in economic activity after a bit of a slowdown in Q1, and today's April services PMI should complete the picture of a solid April performance, after manufacturing and construction beat expectations by bouncing back strongly.feedback

May 04 2017

It is predicted that we could see a bit of a slowdown from March's 55 to 54.6, but given that these predictions have been wrong twice this week it wouldn't surprise to see an upside surprise.feedback

Apr 25 2017 - Populism

Markets are surmising that Emmanuel Macron is a dead certainty to be French President in two weeks' time, and while this is probably the most benign outcome at a time of rising populism it completely overlooks the challenges facing the new French President when he or she takes office on May 8.feedback

Apr 25 2017 - Japan

Today's UK public finance data for March is expected to show an increase from the £1.1bn in February to about £2bn keeping the government on course to reducing its overall borrowing on an annualised basis, with the OBR forecasting that the deficit this year would come in around £51.7bn.feedback

Apr 06 2017 - North Korea

It is this unpredictability that makes markets nervous, particularly since, by his own admission the US President expects the meeting to be difficult, even more so given another missile test this week by North Korea.feedback

Apr 03 2017 - Mar-a-Lago

Despite the solid gains seen so far this year, there is some evidence that the rally in U.S. markets is looking a little tired given President Trump's trials and tribulations in Congress. The reflation trade is likely to face a new test this week when President Trump entertains the Chinese leader Xi-Jinping at his Mar-a-Lago golf course in Florida, which in the words of President Trump himself could be a little 'difficult.feedback

Mar 28 2017 - Article 50

If anything the act of triggering Article 50 could be one of those 'sell the rumor, buy the fact' type of trades that has the potential to drive the pound up towards its recent highs and towards the $1.30 area where it was prior to the recent Bank of England rate cut in August.feedback

Mar 28 2017

This does seem a bit of a stretch given how partisan politicians can be on the subject of tax reform, even more than they are on health care reform. The late pullback could just simply be a case that after eight days of declines some investors decided to get back into the market again as we approach the end of the month and the quarter. Quite simply after four successive months of gains we're probably seeing the first signs of some modest profit taking, and the President's current political woes are providing the catalyst.feedback

Feb 07 2017 - British Petroleum

Ultimately despite the rebound in oil prices, revenues are struggling to keep up.feedback

Feb 07 2017 - British Petroleum

A lot of oil companies put an awful lot of capital expenditure based on oil prices around about $75, $80 dollars a barrel, we've been as low as $27 a barrel, and yes we have rebounded quite substantially off that, and they have cut back capex an awful lot, but it's a very competitive market and there's an awful lot of spare capacity still, I think, out there in the oil market and demand still remains fairly constrained.feedback

Feb 06 2017 - Front National

European markets have really struggled to make any headway today with investors once again reluctant to try their luck against a backdrop of rising political risk.feedback

Feb 02 2017

The bank is still undergoing a significant restructuring process and ... the numbers don't really shed any further light on whether the bank will need to raise extra capital, in order to meet future international bank liquidity rules.feedback

Jan 11 2017

The FTSE has not exploded higher, it has inched higher.feedback

Dec 16 2016 - UBS

It's also been a good week for oil and gas producers ... on the back of further gains for oil prices this week, while the weakness of sterling in the last couple of days is also helping.feedback

Dec 14 2016 - Federal Reserve

Last year the Fed guided the markets to expect at least four rate rises this year, guidance that proved to be woefully wide of the mark, and it is likely that they won't want to make the same mistake again. That suggests that Fed chief Janet Yellen can expect some serious cross-examination of how the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) view not only the economy, but also President elect Donald Trump's plans for it.feedback

Dec 13 2016

The biggest future problem facing the bank isn't so much the restructuring program, but the future growth prospects of the Italian economy, which are pretty poor.feedback

Nov 09 2016

There's a lot of political risk surrounding both of them, so obviously any weakness the dollar will have is mitigated by Brexit.feedback

Jul 09 2016 - Federal Reserve

I certainly think there's scope for further sterling weakness particularly against the dollar because there's an awful lot of speculation the Federal Reserve may well raise interest rates in December. So from that point of view the Federal Reserve is potentially on a hiking cycle so that could pressure the pound.feedback

May 18 2016 - World Bank

It still seems unlikely that the Fed would move in June, firstly because there may not be enough positive data available to act with confidence, and secondly because to do so would suggest that the U.S. central bank doesn't really consider the U.K. referendum a significant enough tail risk, despite all the siren calls to the contrary, from bodies like the IMF, OECD, World Bank, not to mention President Obama.feedback

May 18 2016

Confused? Markets certainly are, up one minute and down the next as speculation about the U.S. economy continues to divide opinion, along with speculation about the number of possible rate rises the Fed might decide upon over the course of the remainder of this year.feedback

Mar 24 2016

The change of tone undermines the credibility and consistency of the FOMC's message to the markets at a time when sentiment still remains fragile and emerging markets remain vulnerable to the strength of the greenback.feedback

Mar 22 2016 - Easter

Coming up to the Easter holiday, people are going to be very reluctant to put more money into these (stock) markets. If anything, they will be more likely to take money out.feedback

Mar 16 2016 - Federal Reserve

Given that stocks have been trading near multi-week highs, more prudent players in the markets pared back some of their recent exposure ahead of the conclusion to today's Federal Reserve rate meeting.feedback

Feb 18 2016 - Iran

While this would appear to suggest that oil prices may well have found their base for now, thus prompting another sharp short covering rebound, this still stops well short of a commitment by Iran to follow suit in capping their production levels, as they look to finesse their return to the oil market, after an absence of many years.feedback

Feb 10 2016

While we get the latest Fed minutes next week, Yellen's comments today could give a huge steer on how the FOMC views the current market turmoil and whether she acknowledges that financial conditions have tightened.feedback

Feb 02 2016 - British Petroleum

This morning's results from BP have added to the gloom surrounding the sector.feedback

Jan 06 2016

Shale production and increasing capacity from countries like Russia who need to protect revenue combined with expectations of further Iranian supply mean actual production as well as expectations of future production are rising.feedback

Jan 06 2016 - Saudi Arabia

There are rising stockpiles and the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia make any deal on production unlikely.feedback

Oct 06 2015

Unfortunately their industrial relations are mired in the 19th century and not the 21st century. Someone has to give here. Management are looking to impose a solution, essentially, I think, because they don't see any other way.feedback

Sep 01 2015 - OPEC

What we have seen here is a classic case of jaw-boning. It does appear to have worked but I think the barriers to consensus for OPEC and non-OPEC countries still remain as high as ever.feedback

Oct 15 2014 - Fracking

We're in a bit of a price war at the moment, we've got more supply then we've got demand, and I think this is in part a ploy by Saudi Arabia to I think squeeze the shale oil revolution and US producers more than anything else, but at some point I think we could well hit a floor and that floor is probably around the $80 a barrel mark.feedback

Jun 20 2012

Given how long it took them to actually ask for a banking bailout, I certainly wouldn't put it past them to actually have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table to actually get a sovereign bailout. But I think the measure for that would be if Spanish bond yields hit 7.5 percent.feedback

May 15 2012 - French election 2017

There's a lot of uncertainty with how a new French president would change the political dynamic between Germany and France. I mean, Mr Hollande has already said he wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact, Angela Merkel has implicitly ruled that out. He's also gone on record as saying that he wants to raise the minimum wage and reduce the retirement age, well that's really going to grate with Germany.feedback

Oct 04 2011 - Greece

This uncertainty is like a cancer in the market. We're really seeing that reflected in asset values. Yes I do think they'll receive the money but given that (Finance Minister Evangelos) Venizelos said the money was more or less guaranteed, why are they delaying it, this just fosters the uncertainty within the market.feedback

Feb 22 2011

Until the situation in the Middle East settles down, you are going to have very wild price swings.feedback

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