Michael McCarthy


Last quote by Michael McCarthy

The U.S. president's re-iteration of a commitment to a massive infrastructure spend and tax reform inspired gains.
Mar 01 2017
Michael McCarthy has been quoted 48 times. The two most recent articles where Michael McCarthy has been quoted are U.S. oil holds near seven-week high; OPEC upbeat on output curbs and Venezuela's VP shrugs off drug sanctions as US weighs policy. Most recently, Michael McCarthy was quoted as having said, “We are nearing the top of the trading range for West Texas and Brent and so the next couple of sessions will be crucial from a technical point of view, at least in determining which way we break. The DoE data tomorrow will be where we get our next impetus.”.
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Michael McCarthy quotes

Another factor is a little bit of nervousness that share markets, particularly in the U.S. and around the globe, have run ahead of what is still an uncertain situation around U.S. policy.

What is driving (Australian market) is a much more benign view of what a Trump presidency might mean for the U.S. economy.

Anything that stimulates the U.S. economy is likely to affect industrial commodities and given the still historically low level of prices in industrial metals like copper and energy markets, the potential is for increased economic growth to flow through to industrial commodities.

In one of the most extraordinary trading sessions ever, Dow futures went from more than 800 points deficit to close 247 points higher.

The stunning turn in sentiment suggests there is now a consensus building that much of the policy announced during the campaign was a sales pitch rather than a commitment to act. Investors ignored the potential for damage to international trade and growth prospects and focused on Republican control of both houses of Congress as well as the White House. This offers the prospect of reform that could stimulate the U.S. economy.

Asia-Pacific markets were the first to adjust to the political shift, and may trade more modestly today after roaring back to life yesterday.

There have been a number of analysts questioning whether it's as good as it gets for Wesfarmers and these results point to the idea that a peak has been passed. I expect that we'll see continuing pressure on the share price as investors adjust to this new outlook.

Commodity prices are higher this morning for producers outside the U.S., despite little change in the dollar price of metals and oil.

There is some profit-taking in the market ahead of some major events, such as (Australia's) CPI data due this week.

The markets are concerned about potential for economic vandalism if Trump is elected, so if there is a perception that he is closing the gap with Clinton, then markets could sell down.

The USD is firmer after FOMC minutes were confirmed hawkish, and GBP is bouncing as markets recoil from a 'hard Brexit'. Weakness in oil and metals markets could further sour sentiment.

Clearly the industrial metals group has been tracking oil reasonably closely over the last few months and that fall in oil prices overnight has also weighed on the base metals.

Major factor weighing on the market at the moment is that strong (U.S.) dollar and the impact that it is having on commodity prices.

The consequent rally in crude pushed the energy sector to compete with financials as best performers, and both outstripped the broader market with gains of more than 1.4 percent.

So, I suspect that if that helps move the market more towards the idea that there is a rate rise coming in December, that will more closely reflect actual Fed rhetoric.

The Fed is actually being much clearer about what it sees is the need to lift interest rates in December, than market pricing.

While markets had a bit of panic overnight I suspect that they will stabilize in trading tonight. By the end of today's session we might even see some support for regional banks because they are relatively more attractive than their European counterparts.

There are concerns about the European banking system overall. The real reason to be concerned here is the Italian situation and the plight of Monte dei Paschi and the Deutsche Bank exposure to it.

More cynical traders have pointed out the complete lack of detail, including the potentially problematic question of which nations will curtail production. A 6-percent jump in crude prices makes a nice headline, but is within normal bounds for the currently highly volatile energy markets. Although this rally may quickly fade, energy stocks are likely to receive a boost at this morning's opening.

Any ramping up of populist rhetoric would likely rattle investors. Any perception that the outsider candidate won the debate could bring a market rout.

The paring of losses I think is largely attributable to two factors: first of all we did not get any lunatic new policies and secondly it appeared that Clinton beat him on both the policy and the emotional component and that is seen as a positive or a less negative for the (Australian) markets.

The rise started in the Asia Pacific so it was a bit of a slow burn.

The dominant news for investors is U.S. inventory data unless we see something surprising out of Algiers.

Looking at volumes, we are seeing weak trading volumes here and across the Asia Pacific region.

What we're seeing at the moment is a little bit of caution that the RBA's rate cutting on table might be deferred if the U.S. raises rates.

Volumes are low so it indicates that the largest players are sitting on their hands until they've had a chance to look across the full company landscape.

Asia Pacific markets are set to finish the week on a high following strong leads from European and U.S. investors.

Clearly some possibility of stimulus is reflected in recent market action, and a failure to move could see disappointment selling across the Asia Pacific region.

The fundamentals haven't shifted. The market remains in surplus and while that's the case, it is very difficult for prices to sustain any gains.

Once again we have got a weaker U.S. dollar and I suspect that that's where the bulk of the support is coming from.

While it's quite clear that one of the drivers here is a weaker U.S. dollar, it does appear that risk appetites are diminishing and that of course means more demand for gold.

It seems unlikely that any particular group would put a floor under the gold price at this stage.

With oil markets producing 1 million barrels a day in excess (of demand) and very little sign of any rational response from the supply side, it's little wonder we're seeing pressure again.

The Chinese economy actually contracted in December and that's adding fire to fears of a more rapid slowdown in the world's second biggest economy.

The U.S. inventory numbers showed a 16 million increase in distillates and other products, so it's clear they're still producing at rates that are unsustainable.

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