Michael Pachter - Wedbush Securities


Last quote by Michael Pachter

Just seeing the words Zelda and Mario in the same breath, in the same year - I can't remember that ever happening. That's really good, but what are the odds that Nintendo keeps that going with two of the big IPs in the same year. There's no way. They just haven't done that in the past. ... If they don't have three games that everybody wants, it's going to be hard for people to justify buying one.feedback
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Apr 26 2017 Nintendo
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Michael Pachter is associated, including Netflix and Amazon Video. Most recently, Michael Pachter has been quoted saying: “I think [Tatsumi Kimishima] has no idea what he's talking about. The Wii sold 100 million units – and sold 14 million the first year. I would really be surprised if this thing sells 14 million this year. But then the Wii sold 19 million the next year. And that's not going to happen [with Switch] unless grandma starts playing [with it]. ... I don't think there's anything about this device that is so novel that grandmas are going to start playing 'Zelda' on it.” in the article Nintendo has made a huge bet on the Switch console, and tomorrow we'll see how well it's selling.
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Michael Pachter quotes

While we expect the Switch to be successful, we believe that the hardware will require significant third-party software support to remain a hot seller. We won't know too much about third-party support until E3 in June, so we think that it is too early to jump on the Nintendo bandwagon.feedback

There isn't a growth story here. They have to convince advertisers that they will reach an expanding audience. The shocking part is that the Trump effect was zero. Their growth actually slowed during the quarter.feedback

I think the rate of growth will decline, but it will remain very high. They grew 57 percent in 2016, and our current model has 'only' 38 percent revenue growth in 2017. That's still pretty impressive.feedback

We believe that Netflix's current valuation is unwarranted given the potential for sustained decelerating domestic growth coupled with consistently elusive international profitability, in addition to increased competition.feedback

I'm in my fifth year [of doubting Netflix], so clearly my one-year price targets are not to be relied upon.feedback

It is likely that we will be wrong for a while longer, as there is more quality content than ever before and Netflix has certainly had its share of hits.feedback

As they consolidate those warehouses, the turnaround time is going to be slower. Then, it's not going to take two days for the next DVD to arrive, it's going to be more like six days. Then people will be upset and quit.feedback

Management plans reduced ad load growth rates ahead in order to preserve the user experience, but we expect user growth and advertiser demand around new ad products to offset the impact to revenues, while margins will likely continue to expand.feedback

But management appears unfocused and complacent, while the narrative has shifted to buyout rumors.feedback

If [Switch's components are] similar to PS4 and Xbox One, porting should be relatively easy and cost-efficient, which will mean that there should be high-profile third-party games available early on, increasing the system's popularity.feedback

Props to them. They're buying subscribers at a clip of negative $2 billion a year? Good for them, but if they don't make money, I don't understand the share price at all.feedback

Amazon can outlast them forever. Bezos is a tough guy. Bezos is Dr. Evil, he intends to take over the world, and he's going to succeed.feedback

They're making a big bet that they are better than Hulu – and Amazon and FX and USA Network and AMC – at developing this stuff. And yet I think they completely lack the internal expertise to compete.feedback

Investors appear laser focused on subscriber growth, and so long as Netflix delivers on that metric, investors will bid its shares up.feedback

Overwatch is a phenomenon that demonstrate's Blizzard's creativity and the audience it has built over the last two decades.feedback

It's fair to presume demand for games will grow by at least 10 percent for the next several years including mobile, desktop free-to-play and console games. There should be a high correlation between job demand and product demand, so if sales grow by 10 percent or more, it is logical that demand for the people who make games will grow by 10 percent or more.feedback

We are confident that once it announced a standalone service, Amazon declared war on Netflix, and intends to back up its new offering with a branding strategy of its own.feedback

The shares are down because their domestic subscriber growth slowed to a crawl … and domestic profits fuel their international losses.feedback

We are not concerned about the decidedly more negative response to the trailer for the latest Call of Duty. Despite this negativity year after year, Call of Duty still sells 25 million units or more on an annual basis, meaning gamer sentiment does not match gamer spending.feedback

I don't see 50 million Prime users making a huge dent in the 2 billion YouTube user ecosystem.feedback

The biggest surprise is that they delayed Karma. They said they wanted to work on the features... they did not explain the delay and why they did not notice it three months ago.feedback

I honestly don't think anyone cares if he has more power, since he's done everything right since they went public.feedback

The company consistently 'warns' about higher spending, but they consistently manage their spending to deliver earnings upside. They're an impressive company, and they leave very little room for criticism.feedback

Amazon Video will up the ante for acquiring new content. This creates a double-whammy for Netflix–higher content spend and slowing subscriber growth.feedback

I think that people who relied on unbridled international growth are beginning to have second thoughts, and the company now faces domestic competition that may limit its ability to grow domestic profitability.feedback

I think the company is really valuable ... I don't think they (Pandora) will give a deal if they are below $20 a share.feedback

Since Facebook killed it yesterday, the others are enjoying a rally. Facebook use is completely independent of Amazon use, but investors blindly bid up all of them when one does well.feedback

The stock is getting killed because the Street is too high on next year.feedback

Take a cue from the deals that aren't being done with Netflix. It is a sign that the content providers are willing to walk away and go elsewhere.feedback

The rollout in 130 countries in early January ensures that they will have no problem hitting their international target.feedback

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