Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets


Last quote by Mike van Dulken

Calls for another negative open come after a mixed session on Wall St and in spite of a decent performance in Asia overnight. Blame can be pinned on another drop in oil prices which will likely put another dent in the FTSE via disproportionately influential Oil Majors, with a negative read across for a commodity sector still troubled by lower metals prices and global growth uncertainty. Geopolitics is also keeping market guessing ahead of this weekend's too tough to call first round French presidential election.feedback
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Apr 20 2017 Oil
Mike van Dulken has been quoted 54 times. The one recent article where Mike van Dulken has been quoted is Live FTSE 100 erases 2017 gains and pound steadies below six-month high as investors digest implications of snap general election. Most recently, Mike van Dulken was quoted as having said, “Calls for a negative open for equities come after losses on Wall St amid mixed corporate results overnight (Yahoo! beat, IBM missed), another leg down for Crude Oil drove a poor session in Asia and additional GBP strength took FTSE futures lower. Copper may be off its worst levels, but remains in a clear downtrend, although a rebound for Iron Ore offers some respite for a commodity sector troubled by scepticism about stimulus; too much in China and nothing to show yet from Trump in the US.”.
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Mike van Dulken quotes

Calls for another flat European open come after last night's US congressional vote on repeal of Obama's Affordable Care Act (ACA) was delayed by 24hrs and US markets a shade lower. This adds to concerns that Trump lacks enough house support (even among Republicans) and that he may struggle to get approval for all the stimulus policies he pledged.feedback

Calls for a positive open come thanks to investors ignoring the Fed's rate hike to concentrate on an unchanged outlook. Forecasting just two more hikes this year, markets have digested the policy update as less hawkish than it could have been. A USD sell-off has thus helped Oil and metals extend rebounds, benefiting the likes of dual-listed Miners RIO and BLT down under overnight.feedback

Add to this a rather more palatable Dutch election result than feared and risk appetite has been restored. Markets are being allowed to ponder the potential for less populist French and German political outcomes in the months to come while further US stimulus supports both US growth and Fed policy normalisation, in turn helping global growth.feedback

Calls for another negative open come after more losses on Wall St and a mixed bag in Asia overnight. A sharp 5pc drop in oil prices following more big US inventory builds has weighed heavily on Energy which don't forget makes up over 13% of the UK's FTSE index (BP, RDSb), before we even consider the read-across to support/engineering names and the sentiment hit to the Miners.feedback

And while oil prices are off their worst levels, sentiment remains hindered even more intense head-scratching about China as overnight inflation prints (surge in producer prices, plunge in consumer prices) added to yesterday's surprise trade deficit. This could revive concern about its economic transition from exporter to consumer (and its debt mountain, stimulus efforts) especially ahead of next week's probable Fed rate hike (100pc priced in).feedback

Reckitt Benckiser makes it a brace of companies whose share prices have defied traditional M&A reaction recently, rising on news of spending big to acquire.feedback

These strong top-line numbers will make incumbent rival grocers and German discounters green with envy, especially when pre-exceptional profits before tax grew strongly, implying significant margin expansion.feedback

Wall Street looks like it has potential to try for the magic 20,000 record high that has eluded it for so long.feedback

I think the appetite is there to keep (the FTSE) pushing north. The week's earnings are going to provide a boost, I think commodity prices seem to be holding up quite nicely, which is good for the mining. The financials are still buoyed.feedback

This latest positive update from a sector major adds to yesterday's positive UK PMI Construction read and improving mortgage approvals data, while the UK mortgage market remains highly competitive and government initiatives supportive. Although house price data does remain notoriously mixed, the post-Brexit crash foreseen by many simply hasn't materialised and prices held up remarkably well.feedback

Equities are on the back foot on the last full trading session of the year, with investors taking profits and some risk off the table. Miners and financials are in a tug of war with defensives.feedback

We were in a downtrend that started end of November, so if we can call the end to that, that will be good for (the miners).feedback

(Gains for) Deutsche Bank shares suggests relief at a good result and the affair being closed. Credit Suisse shares flat implies an acceptable deal. Barclays' (fall) indicates some uncertainty about what it eventually ends up paying.feedback

Colour on cost-cutting has been scant at best and they haven't offered anything to make me think there is any recovery potential. No-one knows what Brexit means yet and their clients don't know either, so potentially it's a vicious circle.feedback

We have to very much start thinking this might be happening.feedback

This would be significant because it would be the first developed European country to see a populist party in power. On the flip side, look at how well the markets have taken [President-elect Donald] Trump and Brexit.feedback

BT shares have bounced back to positive territory on hopes that Europe, for all its red tape, will actually complicate the matter and delay the process.feedback

(With) continued production cut brinkmanship from both OPEC and Russia, scepticism is still rife about whether tomorrow's official OPEC meeting in Vienna will be a success.feedback

Fears are that an Italian dissent and resulting market turmoil would dissuade already gutsy investors from daring to participate in desperately needed recapitalisations within a very troubled 4 trillion euro banking system.feedback

There were no London property disposals ... and letter weakness still needs to be offset with growth in the highly competitive parcels arena.feedback

I think markets are perhaps already ... moving on to the other political risk we're facing.feedback

Expectations of an infrastructure spending spree, fiscal stimulus and deregulation are, however, intensifying the bond market sell-off via hopes of growth, inflation and, more importantly, interest rate rises.feedback

Less chance of a Fed rate hike also helps keep investors smiling at the prospect of cheap money and accommodative global monetary policy stance for a while longer.feedback

Helpful FX moves are helping sugar margins (already up on better global sugar prices), bringing focus back to the 'ingredients/agriculture' segment to prove that the ABF story can still be something other than discount fashion and Primark.feedback

Equity markets remain southerly oriented into the weekend. Investors remain nervous about who will prove victorious in next Tuesday's U.S. election. They are also having to deal with a more hawkish central bank outlook globally as the U.S. Fed preps us for another step towards policy normalisation via a December rate hike and its Bank of England peer shifts away from more stimulus thanks to the U.K. economy weathering the Brexit storm.feedback

Markets appear optimistic going into risk events including tonight's China GDP growth update, Wednesday's final Trump vs Clinton debate and Thursday's ECB policy decision.feedback

Failure to return excess cash ... [is] likely the real culprit for investor displeasure. It only makes matters worse for shareholders struggling in an environment of low returns.feedback

Banks remain pressured by the prospect of lower rates for longer and global growth uncertainty.feedback

This has understandably sent ripples across the sector.feedback

Markets just need a bit more evidence that they should indeed be back to the races or ... be selling off and I think the U.S. might give us a bit of a hand today.feedback

(This) ... serves to strike fear into the hearts of healthcare groups and their investors everywhere.feedback

Less London exposure than peers looks to be paying off while current trends and outlook appear in line with recent property data.feedback

Today's losses come after a raft of mixed data from across the globe. A more prominent bearish sentiment is now overpowering the hitherto bullish dominance that had ushered us to recent highs.feedback

Investors are perhaps hopeful that things are on the up from the group, with better returns on the horizon via a revamped investment banking division - the one that made it such a success in years gone by.feedback

While news of an acquisition tends to dent the acquirer's share price (spending cash/diluting shareholders by issuing shares, risk of overpaying, integration risk, etc) the fact that this addition to the SMIN stable can be merged with its existing detection business is being well-received.feedback

Markets were uninspired by what management described an 'in-line' start to 2016 and thus less bullish than shareholders had been hoping for ... (however) the fundamentals for the company are ... pretty solid as we move toward a cashless society.feedback

Still work to do on the restructuring front, but a 20 percent move off the share price lows could signal a turning point on a difficult journey.feedback

Investors are back in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday anxious for clues about the Fed's rate rise trajectory.feedback

Further support for gold comes from a slightly weaker U.S. dollar as markets price in expectations of a dovish Fed message tomorrow, given the market turmoil.feedback

We are in a new world - China's not growing (in) double digits, demand for raw materials has fallen through the floor and it's both a supply and demand side problem.feedback

The mining space remains under considerable pressure on account of sector adjustment to years of over-expansion, resulting in supply gluts with slowing global growth.feedback

Holders will be happy to receive another 60p special dividend … thanks to good cashflow, but sceptics might not like a worse net debt position and what amounts to a challenging environment in which to be a retailer.feedback

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