Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

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Last quote by Naeem Aslam

The minutes show that the Fed is going to be cautious and is in no rush to adopt a hawkish tone with respect to their balance sheet. We are not going to see any massive move to the downside for the dollar, but upside is very limited unless economic data starts to pick up massively.feedback
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May 24 2017
Naeem Aslam has been quoted 83 times. The one recent article where Naeem Aslam has been quoted is Wall St. set to open slightly higher as oil prices jump. Most recently, Naeem Aslam was quoted as having said, “On one hand, this is good news because we are looking at a situation where we would not have to worry oil production and its baggage for some time. On the negative side, we think that traders are reading too much into this situation and ... the current production cut has not been able to produce any substantial results so far.”.
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Naeem Aslam quotes

Sterling has dropped like a rock. Traders have finally woken up to the reality and we highlighted this in our article on March 2. What we said was that if Theresa May triggers the article 50 as per plan, it will have negative impact on the currency. The reason is that this spells only one thing for investors that she is heading towards hard Brexit negotiations with an attitude that she has nothing to lose. The biggest fear on the street is what will her EU partners will say and how they are going to treat this matter given that Brexit is about to become a reality.feedback

The wage pressure was the key in today's data, and it has gained most significant attention among other readings. The wage number released today was not really a blowout number, but still a very decent one. Only if the number was extremely vile, then the Fed was going to stop their interest rate hike, but now it looks like that we are going to see a rate hike next week.feedback

This is the last piece of puzzle when it comes to the US interest rate hike which the Fed is going to make. So far the Fed has adopted a very hawkish tone when it comes to the interest rate hike.feedback

At the same time, the bank is going to cut its stake in asset management units by focusing more on its core business. Deutsche Bank is going to remain on traders' dashboards as they try to make sense of company's future.feedback

This shows that investors have no interest in holding French bonds and they are running towards German bonds.feedback

You can see that the picture is changing as inflation has picked up over in China and this is having a more prominent impact over in the U.S.. The US retail sales data was hot and it tells us how much investors are willing to dig deep into their pockets and how confident they are in their spending attitude.feedback

Investors are looking at French bond and equity markets closely and we think, a rating cut could stimulate a serious tumult in this space. We would expect the CAC40 to sell if there is a rating cut and investors could favour the German equity market.feedback

It is not all good news when it comes to the US jobs number because if you peel the layers, it shows that the downside surprise is in the wage report and a lot of disappointment there.feedback

It was expected that Trump's administration wouldn't be able to maintain the same relationships which were developed by Obama after years of work. These tensions could make investors a little nervous and we could see the oil market becoming volatile once again. Trump's administration has put Iran on official notice but no one really know what this really means. Nonetheless, we think this news is sufficient to bring more instability for the price of oil, and if the US puts the sanctions back on Iran, it may create more problems for its EU partners.feedback

The meeting is very important for both individuals because they are labeled as anti-free trade and driving the engine of populism and protectionism. So far, [Trump] has shown that he is good in cutting ties with other governments and firms if they do not work according to his plan. He needs to assure the world that cutting ties has the benefit of making good deals.feedback

Investors are nervous due to Trump's protectionism policies and their hope is that his tax cut policies could perhaps save the day for them.feedback

Traders are no longer going to monitor his words closely, but the actual actions. The bigger question is if he can get the Congress to wear the same hat.feedback

The precious metal is clearly the beneficiary of this risk off appetite and traders are building their hedge.feedback

The upcoming president is determined to create more jobs for Americans and also inflate the wage growth number. This surely will help the US retail sales number in the coming months, if he delivers what he has promised.feedback

The Italian banking crisis tells us that national governments are willing to fill all the holes which the system has at any cost.feedback

There is finally some good news for European banking sector. However, the holes in this sector are still far from being filled, as [Monte dei Paschi] has also asked for a rescue fund which the Italian government may have to provide as well.feedback

Traders are on the sideline even though their Christmas wish is that the Dow should touch the level of 20K.feedback

Everyone is looking at the 20K level which is very important because there could be some profit taking at that level. This is a major resistance and psychological mark and traders will not hesitate to take some profit off the table to celebrate another bull year.feedback

The People Bank of China has been trying to defend its currency, and their pain can be seen when you look the country's foreign reserve number. The dollar index has been soaring crazily, and the country had no other option (than) to sell its reserve to defend its currency.feedback

This is certainly the best present traders could have for Christmas. The cartel has shown a united front and this is what matters the most. There have been so many doubts over the year if they have the ability to deliver anything and today they have.feedback

The dollar rally has taken to another level on the back of the US durable good data which was really stunning and mind blowing. The economy is strong and the data is telling you that clearly. The question is how much attention the Fed is going to pay in relation to their future path of interest rate hike. Under the current situation, we expect the Fed to remain very hawkish during the first quarter of 2017.feedback

U.S.-centric IPOs may still come out, but international investors will not have any interest in U.S. IPOs should a trade war emerge, particularly between the U.S. and China.feedback

The December interest rate hike is very much a done deal now and what matter the most for us is to listen to the Fed statement carefully (in December) as this will provide enough clues for future interest rate hike trajectory.feedback

Markets are showing that investors continue to believe the fiscal policy plans by Mr Trump and they want to pile their bets in equities. Mr Trump has delivered many water down versions of his controversial views over the weekend. This has restored further confidence that the person in charge of the biggest economy of the world, has started to think more logically.feedback

Given that both the House and the Senate belong to the Republicans, the odds are a lot better for a possibility of further fiscal stimulating policies in the coming days.feedback

Donald Trump's victory will not only bring the knee jerk reaction for the market, but we are also concerned about the geopolitical uncertainty.feedback

This has made matters a lot easier for Hillary Clinton and it will help her to ease off some of the uncertainty and (is) good news for investors who have an appetite for risk in this environment.feedback

It is difficult to compare Mario Draghi with Janet Yellen, Carney or Kuroda because he is in charge of a lot of countries. He has to face the music from Germany, France with respect to his policies – the two countries which have made the most noise.feedback

Firstly, it is the interest rate environment which is a lot more favorable for the U.S. banks. The Fed is about to increase the interest rate for one more time this year and this is going to be positive news for them. But if you look in Europe, we do not think that interest rates are going to move higher anytime soon.feedback

The number came better than expected. But manufacturing and industrial sector have performed badly and this is what we want to emphasize.feedback

It is certainly too early to call that Brexit effects are over or they will not have an impact on the UK's growth.feedback

This is not a great message when you are talking about supply cut and your credibility is already being questioned.feedback

This stamps that the deflation period may have come to an end. Rising prices for both consumer and producers was something that the PBOC was trying to trigger for a while because it shows that the economy is fostering.feedback

The number tells you two simple things: we are fighting for demand and the situation is equally worse, whether we look at international demand or domestic number. If we get another number which confirms that economic recovery is under threat over in China, we could have a serious problem.feedback

Concerns of a hard Brexit continue to fester, causing more inflation pain for the Bank of England and for consumers. The selling pressure has easing off somewhat as Theresa May takes the foot off the gas in terms of a hard Brexit.feedback

Investors have lost their confidence further after the recent dispute over supply from OPEC, this is impacting the US markets. Negative headlines will continue to push the price of oil and energy sector will have footprints of this.feedback

Investors were shackled, with the corporate health condition in the U.S. and the Fed is thinking of increasing the interest rate.feedback

The sterling weakness is also presenting a threat for the Fed, as the dollar is becoming stronger and stronger. This makes the Fed increasing the interest rates a little bit tricky.feedback

The sell-off which we are seeing for gold is mainly due to the reason that some Fed members have created noise again that November meeting could be live when it comes to the interest rate. Although it sounds extremely bizarre because we also have the US election in that particular month, and I do not see the Fed combining the two risky events together.feedback

The economy seems to be unable to sustain without central bank support.feedback

This could become a serious problem for the Fed and they can soon start paddling backwards.feedback

Fed's William has added more color to the U.S. rate hike odds. You can say that it is pretty much a trend that after a weak or fragile data, we do get somewhat hawkish comments from various different Fed members, and they try to fade the effects of the data on the dollar.feedback

A few more Fed members may add more ingredients to this recipe in the coming days, and only one more bullish economic reading could make the current dollar dip look like a buy opportunity.feedback

When you see the ISM non-manufacturing number dropping like this, it shakes the floor on which traders are building the hopes that the Fed could increase the interest rate.feedback

Traders are not going to be that much happy that easy money is leaving town, so we may see a sell-off for the equity market and for gold as well.feedback

There are two angles here. Firstly, it is the failure of the QE policy over in Japan, and expectations are that perhaps focus will be more on fiscal stimulating policies rather than monetary policies. Finally, the fading interest rate hike expectations are taking the steam out of the dollar.feedback

If you look at the retail sales number ex auto, the number is even weaker. We always think that the retail sales data is the true reflection of the consumer spending and the number produced today tells us that consumption is very slow. The number will also an impact on the start of the Third quarter.feedback

Gold traders reduced their positions and took some profit off the table as the odds of the US increasing the interest rate have become stronger. However, it is still very vague that when that take will place as the upcoming U.S. elections do have massive elements of uncertainty.feedback

The volatility continued to shadow the equity market and consumer confidence. The Turkish Lira is drowning for now and remains under constant pressure.feedback

Most investors are in the mood to take some profits off the table and this could impact the volume in the market as we march towards the final hours of the referendum campaign.feedback

The economic data is firming up in the US and this is making the dollar stronger. Traders are of the mind-set that the Fed will increase the interest rate in June.feedback

Investors' confidence is in jeopardy after the Bank of Japan's decision, and further fuel has been added by U.S. corporate earnings.feedback

Investors are once again focused towards the scanty economic data over in China and the anxiety is if the People's Bank of China has the right tools to help the recovery.feedback

What matters for equity investors right now is the assurance from the U.S. Federal Reserve department that they are paying attention to the economic conditions, which are not only taking place domestically, but they also need to react to offshore volatility. If we get this comfort from the Fed, we could see a rally in the equity market around the globe.feedback

Gold has eased off from its $1,100 mark as the president of the ECB spurred some appetite for riskier assets.feedback

The ongoing weakness in Chinese growth could (help send) the metal above the $1,100 mark.feedback

Investors in Europe are shrugging off some of the angst around the Chinese market sell-off and showing some resilience today despite the up and down swings in Asia.feedback

Crude and Brent oil had a very rocky and wild start for this year, similar to the equity market, and the confidence in the commodity space is still far away from forming any kind of solid foundation. There is a strong possibility that we break below the 30 dollar mark and the price could be trading between $25 and $30.feedback

European markets are not getting any room to breath once again. This is despite the fact that the People Bank of China is trying its all weapons to calm the market nerves.feedback

Unless geopolitical events affect the direct supply of oil, such as by impeding a major pipeline, port or waterway, oil prices shouldn't be affected. Iran has all the interest in the world right now to actually move the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia into the domestic arena in Saudi Arabia. If that happens ... we could still see a huge implication for the oil price.feedback

The bias could be skewed towards the downside and most of the bets may also be anchored towards this direction.feedback

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