Last quote by Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh quotes
At the time they raised rates, it seemed like a reasonable decision, and it certainly has been supported by the strong employment numbers we have seen. But starting at the beginning of the year, it seems all hell broke loose. The rather inept handling by Chinese authorities of the stock market troubles in that country has really bothered global markets.
China's poor policy response to its financial troubles is probably a big near-term risk [for the global economy]. I don't think it will lead to a global recession – but it creates a lot of investor anxiety and has been creating these ripple effects across the financial world.
In the US, for example, in contrast, you (they) had austerity – there is no question, you (the US) had austerity – but there you had very loose monetary policy. So the US was able to avoid the fate of Europe. So, you cannot have tight monetary policy and tight fiscal policy at the same time. That is the lesson, in the end, from Europe.
I think the worst of the housing crunch is behind us, but I would not interpret this as somehow or other the beginning of some kind of sustained rally in housing. Thing are getting better, but at a much slower rate than the home sales numbers and the surge in home sales would suggest.