Oliver Roth

Oliver Roth has been quoted 36 times. The one recent article where Oliver Roth has been quoted is Rollercoaster Friday for Deutsche Bank on settlement fears and hopes. Most recently, Oliver Roth was quoted as having said, “This is not a crisis similar to Lehman [Brothers] because the authorities, the regulators and countries have learned a bank like this cannot default because of its position in the system. Which means that Deutsche Bank is not going to go bankrupt but it has to solve its problems and if the bank cannot do it by itself it must be helped.”.

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This is not a crisis similar to Lehman [Brothers] because the authorities, the regulators and countries have learned a bank like this cannot default because of its position in the system. Which means that Deutsche Bank is not going to go bankrupt but it has to solve its problems and if the bank cannot do it by itself it must be helped.

The crisis in China is certainly not over yet but we have to look very closely to see what kind of an effect it has had on the world economy. It is not exactly clear and so we will have to take a very close look and analyse it. But the financial markets have stabilised again for now.

I think the reason is that there are quite a few optimists who believe and hope that Sunday's Greek referendum will turn out positively for the eurozone.The fact that Greece is bankrupt has been known for a while. That's not the decisive issue for the markets. What's important for the markets is to know how things will proceed. Will there be a quick solution to the Greek debt crisis or will it continue to be a never-ending story?

The markets are pretty much focused on stability and security and that would be guaranteed by a reelection of Angela Merkel. If the socialists have a chance to get into the government, that would be a negative scenario.

This was the verdict that the markets were expecting. Now there has to be a limit to the ESM, which must be controlled by Germany's parliament. There will be corrections to the ESM, and I believe there will be delays to it because of those necessary corrections. But overall, the markets can live with this result.

I believe all we can expect at the end is just a marketing gimmick. I mean, they're talking about a 130 billion euro stimulus package, which can be easily passed. But it doesn't help the peripheral eurozone countries right now.

There are still doubts on the market whether the Greek government will keep their promises concerning the troika and concerning the debt cuts. So there are still concerns on the markets and that puts some pressure on the markets.

The EU meeting decisions are far (reaching) enough in the middle and long term. But in the short term, we still have the problem of refinancing of the countries in the southern part of Europe. So we need the help of the central bank.

The worst case scenario is right now, that if Greece is really rejecting the rescue package, that might blow up the whole euro system.

We are expecting more or less the same policy coming up. We are looking forward to the next ECB meeting where we are expecting also a lowering of the interest rates from actually 1.5 percent to 1.25 percent.

It is important for the market to have stability and security. At the moment, that stability is not possible because of the difficult situation in Greece. And that's why there is so much pressure on investors, after last week's recovery. But that recovery was only of technical nature.

I am expecting a slow-down of the selling market, simply because they (investors) are out of breath and they need some time to rest. We will see for this week a calming down of the markets, definitely.

Every wave of sales needs a break and I think we will see a break this week. The market is going to go sideways, and at the end of the week there will be some economic data published which we will look at very carefully as recession is an issue here.

There were already a couple of investors very much concerned about the economic situation in the world but everybody was expecting that Germany would have a very good year. So we are really deeply surprised and concerned about the German GDP figures and that is what the market shows.

The background to the plunge of Societe Generale were simply rumours about Societe Generale and their liquidity problem. That was simply a rumour, but that was enough to plunge the stock exchanges all over the world.

The markets demand a solution for the Greek problem, a sustainable solution. It's not just about throwing money into Greece in order to service interest payments. What is needed is a Marshall plan to help restructure the country, so it can, in the foreseeable future, stand on its own feet again and is not dependent on EU money anymore.

There won't be any long-term impact, because the IMF is a working institution. There will certainly be a caretaker managing director who will take over from him and, probably, will work along the very same lines.

Bailing out Portugal is a short term game for the Euro governments. They have a little time to fix the structural problems of the Euro now. If they don't do that, Spain will be next, and then the Euro will be under massive pressure again.

The financial markets welcome the decision of the Deutsche Telekom to get rid of the American branch simply because now they can concentrate on their first goal to get bigger in the multimedia-internet market and they get also a lot of money for their American branch and that is definitively a success.

Portugal and the European Union have just gained some time. Sooner or later Portugal will have to ask for a European bailout, that's for sure.

I personally welcome the idea of a growth and stability fund, simply because it shows that the European politicians are aware of the situation of the euro, that we still have structural problems and we have to solve these problems as soon as possible.

Hypo Real Estate has already been taken over by the State, and it will get the money it needs from taxpayers.

The results of these stress tests are positive but not surprisingly positive. If you look closely, you can see that this is a politically-motivated image campaign for the banks to regain investor confidence.

Obviously a spread of more than 300 basis points together with guarantees from the IMF and the EU, is enough to sell the Greek bonds. But Greece has to pay more than 300 basis points more, which means they won't be able to save the money in the national budget as quickly as they have to spend it via interest on the free market right now.

I think the European Commission is doing the right thing in forcing budgetary discipline on Greece. This austerity plan is ambitious, but it is necessary. It will be a quantum leap for Greece to implement this plan.

The traders have the same wishes at Christmas as everyone: to have a peaceful Christmas with their families. We are all looking forward to next year and we hope that it will be better – job wise -than the last one.

The decisions that were made at the G20 summit in London were good, but not really enough. The markets were moved by optimism, but the recession is probably not going to be over by the end of the year. And so more measures will be needed.

It's becoming clear that no-one is immune in this financial crisis. Deutsche Bank, which was always one of the bright spots, is now showing weakness, with big, dark storm clouds gathering in the sky over Deutsche Bank.

All signs point to a rough performance in 2009, at least during the first half of the year. We will see that businesses will earn considerably less. We will also see cases of insolvency and many other sorts of crises.

The Fed's decision to reduce interest rates to almost zero is not an alarming sign, it's a necessary step. The Fed still has room to manoeuvre, to act by buying further defaulted mortgages or investing in bonds. All these are normal steps.

I am cautiously optimistic – at least for this week – that we will be seeing stable even rising stock prices, because of the usual year end rally.

No one knows how much is still to come, there's nobody in the world can really answer that question right now. My estimate is we're in the middle of this crisis. There will be more turmoil and bankruptcies but we naturally hope that after all that the economy will be able to consolidate.

Well the crisis is already in Europe, we have to say that, we have to admit that, but it's like second impact, it's not the troubled debt security positions, it's the liquidity, and this is a problem.

In Europe and America I can see more bank crashes. In my opinion there is further necessity for write offs. Real Estate prices in the US, which are the trigger for the crisis, keep dropping and that's why I can imagine some institutions in the US and Europe for example UBS will need massive write offs and slide deeper into crisis.

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