Paul Ashworth - Capital Economics


Last quote by Paul Ashworth

Nevertheless, that still means employment increased by a relatively modest 140,000 per month over the past two months, which is a significant slowdown on the pace of employment growth in the first half of this
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Nov 03 2017
Paul Ashworth has been quoted 59 times. The one recent article where Paul Ashworth has been quoted is US smashes growth forecasts with hurricane-defying expansion. Most recently, Paul Ashworth was quoted as having said, “With domestic consumers unusually confident and global economic growth accelerating, US producers should be ramping up inventories, particularly after the pace of inventory accumulation slowed markedly over the past two years. GDP growth for 2017 as a whole is currently tracking at around 2.1pc and, assuming we see a modest fiscal stimulus in early 2018, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.5pc next year, even after allowing for a more aggressive pace of monetary tightening.”.
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Paul Ashworth quotes

May 03 2017

We still think that the Fed will hike again in June, although that assumes employment and growth rebounds in April and

May 01 2017

We don't expect that will prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates again at the June ... meeting, at least not as long as employment growth rebounds in April and

Apr 14 2017

Some Fed officials will be disturbed by the unexpected drop back in core CPI inflation in March, but this won't prevent a June rate hike, particularly as the fall was partly due to one-off changes and weather

Apr 07 2017 - Unemployment

Payroll gains should now settle down to a steady 150,000 to 170,000 per month, which would be enough to keep the unemployment rate on a gradual downward

Apr 04 2017

In general, the economy appears to be doing well. There's some optimism surrounding President Trump's election and the possibility that will bring deregulation and lower taxes (and) that's fed into a fairly good rally in the stock market. A lot of this activity is just stemming from

Apr 04 2017

As things stand now, the monthly data point to a 3 percent annualized gain in real exports in the first quarter and a more modest 2 percent increase in real imports. As a result, we expect net external demand to make a modest positive contribution to overall GDP

Feb 22 2017

We still think the Fed will delay until June. Furthermore, while many 'participants', which is Fed code for all officials, (in the minutes) might be leaning toward an earlier rate hike, the actual voting members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) come across as slightly more

Feb 01 2017

We still expect the fiscal stimulus to be passed by

Jan 31 2017

At the moment there's incredible uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and the potential for stimulus and the composition of that. The Fed can't react until it knows what to react

Jan 27 2017

With real personal disposable income rising by 3.7 percent and labor market conditions still improving, consumption growth should remain solid in the first few months of next year and will, at some point, receive a big boost from the proposed income tax

Jan 23 2017 - Protectionism

It is possible that those two countries [Canada and Mexico] will offer concessions, not unlike Japan's pragmatic response to the U.S. protectionist push in the 1980s. But if not, protectionism could trigger a stronger dollar, retaliation from other countries and higher domestic

Jan 06 2017

With wage growth climbing again and price inflation set to rise well above 2 percent, the modest drop-off in employment growth won't stop the Fed from tightening monetary policy more aggressively this

Jan 04 2017

This is a slightly hawkish set of

Dec 13 2016

If he remains silent after the announcement to raise interest rates next Wednesday, then we can begin to assume that it will be business as usual for the

Dec 13 2016

There is a real risk that he could be openly critical of the decision to raise rates next

Nov 10 2016

We expect some fiscal plan that will pursue the Republican agenda, but it's likely to be much smaller in scale than the one originally envisaged by

Nov 09 2016

It is hard to believe that the tea party fiscal conservatives in Congress would be willing to blow out the budget deficit like that. It would put the federal debt burden on course to exceed 100 percent of GDP within a few

Nov 09 2016

We simply can't know what type of President Trump will

Nov 09 2016 - Federal Reserve

Given the adverse market reaction we have already seen, the Fed's planned December rate hike is now off the

Nov 04 2016

The election could still derail the Fed's plans, particularly if a very close result led to one or both candidates contesting it via the

Oct 28 2016

It is still a welcome sign that the dollar appreciation in 2014 and 2015 is no longer weighing on exporters. Nevertheless, while overall exports added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth, without the spike in soybean exports it would have added only 0.3 percentage

Oct 28 2016

Accordingly, a reasonable case could be made that this is actually a disappointing GDP

Oct 28 2016

A rate hike is on the

Oct 05 2016

Exports are beginning to show signs of life as the drag from the dollar's surge in 2014 and 2015 begins to

Sep 30 2016

It's one weakness replacing

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

If Trump wins, we now think Yellen would resign fairly quickly as a matter of principle. The main reason for believing that Yellen would resign almost immediately is that falling on her sword would take some of the political heat off the rest of the

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

If Donald Trump wins November's presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. It is hard to see how she could continue in her position until her current term expires in early

Sep 21 2016

This seems to have been one of the most divisive FOMC meetings in recent

Sep 21 2016

The Fed appears to be firmly on track for a December

Sep 06 2016

This makes us very nervous for the third

Sep 06 2016

The mistake we made in the second quarter was trusting the incoming monthly activity data we had that, right up until the last minute, pointed to a strong showing from second-quarter GDP growth. In contrast, the surveys were pretty weak and suggested that growth wouldn't be much above 1 percent

Sep 02 2016

The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still

Aug 12 2016

Given that employment has rebounded, consumer confidence is holding up, I'm not overly

Aug 05 2016

As well as being a long way above the consensus forecast of a 180,000 gain, the strength of July's employment report was unusually

Jul 29 2016

The GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate

Jul 29 2016 - Unemployment

What is really worrying is that pace has still been enough to reduce the unemployment rate further, suggesting that the economy's potential growth rate could conceivably be close to

Jun 24 2016

Leave or remain, this probably isn't going to affect Fed

Jun 03 2016 - Federal Reserve

That sound you hear is Fed Chair Janet Yellen furiously rewriting her speech that she is scheduled to give (in Philadelphia) on

Jun 02 2016

Labor market conditions are stable, which is all the reassurance the Fed will need to act

Mar 04 2016

The lack of a more marked pickup in wage growth is the only missing element. But as far as the Fed is concerned, it is already seeing a clear acceleration in core price inflation. A June rate hike is

Feb 26 2016

The weaker drag from inventories in the fourth quarter means that any rebound in the first quarter could be slightly more modest than we previously

Feb 04 2016

The biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is the chronic lack of productivity

Jan 08 2016

Before we get too carried away, however, it's worth stressing that the record warm temperatures in the fourth quarter, and December in particular, probably paid a role. It's notable that construction employment increased by a massive 45,000 last month and more than 120,000 in the fourth

Jun 05 2015

Employment was never going to continue rising at more than 200,000 a month indefinitely. Those monthly gains are simply

Feb 06 2015

While it's important not to over-react to one data point, there are exceptions and this is one of them. Employment growth is clearly on fire and its beginning to put upward pressure on wage growth. The Fed can't wait much longer in that environment, particularly not when interest rates are starting at

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