Paul Ashworth - Capital Economics

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Paul Ashworth has been quoted 44 times. The one recent article where Paul Ashworth has been quoted is Falling US retail sales cast doubt on further Fed interest rate rise | Business | The Guardian. Most recently, Paul Ashworth was quoted as having said, “Some Fed officials will be disturbed by the unexpected drop back in core CPI inflation in March, but this won't prevent a June rate hike, particularly as the fall was partly due to one-off changes and weather effects.”.
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Paul Ashworth quotes

If he remains silent after the announcement to raise interest rates next Wednesday, then we can begin to assume that it will be business as usual for the Fed.feedback

There is a real risk that he could be openly critical of the decision to raise rates next week.feedback

We expect some fiscal plan that will pursue the Republican agenda, but it's likely to be much smaller in scale than the one originally envisaged by Trump.feedback

It is hard to believe that the tea party fiscal conservatives in Congress would be willing to blow out the budget deficit like that. It would put the federal debt burden on course to exceed 100 percent of GDP within a few years.feedback

We simply can't know what type of President Trump will be.feedback

Given the adverse market reaction we have already seen, the Fed's planned December rate hike is now off the table.feedback

The election could still derail the Fed's plans, particularly if a very close result led to one or both candidates contesting it via the courts.feedback

It is still a welcome sign that the dollar appreciation in 2014 and 2015 is no longer weighing on exporters. Nevertheless, while overall exports added 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth, without the spike in soybean exports it would have added only 0.3 percentage points.feedback

Accordingly, a reasonable case could be made that this is actually a disappointing GDP report.feedback

Exports are beginning to show signs of life as the drag from the dollar's surge in 2014 and 2015 begins to fade.feedback

If Trump wins, we now think Yellen would resign fairly quickly as a matter of principle. The main reason for believing that Yellen would resign almost immediately is that falling on her sword would take some of the political heat off the rest of the FOMC.feedback

If Donald Trump wins November's presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. It is hard to see how she could continue in her position until her current term expires in early 2018.feedback

This seems to have been one of the most divisive FOMC meetings in recent memory.feedback

The Fed appears to be firmly on track for a December hike.feedback

The mistake we made in the second quarter was trusting the incoming monthly activity data we had that, right up until the last minute, pointed to a strong showing from second-quarter GDP growth. In contrast, the surveys were pretty weak and suggested that growth wouldn't be much above 1 percent annualized.feedback

The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely.feedback

Given that employment has rebounded, consumer confidence is holding up, I'm not overly concerned.feedback

As well as being a long way above the consensus forecast of a 180,000 gain, the strength of July's employment report was unusually broad-based.feedback

The GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike.feedback

What is really worrying is that pace has still been enough to reduce the unemployment rate further, suggesting that the economy's potential growth rate could conceivably be close to zero.feedback

Leave or remain, this probably isn't going to affect Fed policy.feedback

That sound you hear is Fed Chair Janet Yellen furiously rewriting her speech that she is scheduled to give (in Philadelphia) on Monday.feedback

Labor market conditions are stable, which is all the reassurance the Fed will need to act soon.feedback

The lack of a more marked pickup in wage growth is the only missing element. But as far as the Fed is concerned, it is already seeing a clear acceleration in core price inflation. A June rate hike is coming.feedback

The weaker drag from inventories in the fourth quarter means that any rebound in the first quarter could be slightly more modest than we previously expected.feedback

The biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is the chronic lack of productivity growth.feedback

Before we get too carried away, however, it's worth stressing that the record warm temperatures in the fourth quarter, and December in particular, probably paid a role. It's notable that construction employment increased by a massive 45,000 last month and more than 120,000 in the fourth quarter.feedback

Employment was never going to continue rising at more than 200,000 a month indefinitely. Those monthly gains are simply unsustainable.feedback

While it's important not to over-react to one data point, there are exceptions and this is one of them. Employment growth is clearly on fire and its beginning to put upward pressure on wage growth. The Fed can't wait much longer in that environment, particularly not when interest rates are starting at near-zero.feedback

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