Paul Christopher - Wells Fargo

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Last quote by Paul Christopher

I don't think the market gives him a pass. I think when he gets back, the media focus returns to the press digging out more on the Russian connection, and for the markets it's going to be, OK, we get that's going on, and what does it mean for your ability to get through tax reform legislation?feedback
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May 26 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Paul Christopher is associated, including September and Fed. Most recently, Paul Christopher has been quoted saying: “The prospect you're not going to get reflation in the U.S. and China might slow further, that's something where people would have to evaluate the magnitudes. Maybe, it's just that we can't get used to the fact that someone's president whose going to act in ways we're not comfortable with, and is not easy to predict. Even if you like Trump, sometimes his tweets get you off guard. Maybe if you like Trump, you're surprised by his slapping of a 20 percent tariff on Canadian lumber.” in the article US rises to the top of the list of markets with big political risk.
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Paul Christopher quotes

It's that unknown and then the very important fact that there's populism. We wanted to close our eyes and pretend it's going to go away. For it to continue from Brexit, to the U.S. and back to France again, it's a sign that Western democracies have a big problem – inequality in income and noninclusive economic growth. You have to sort out the uncertainty. If one of the extremists is going to be president, what is the national assembly going to be like?feedback

We think people may have overestimated the economy's pace and trajectory for this year; first quarter we think will be on the weak side. The movements in the market since the election suggest that investors are expecting more growth and more inflation this year than we think is actually in the cards. Many international equity markets still have attractive valuations. Bond yields have fallen lately, but yields could rise again if the economy continues to grow and inflation recovers toward long-term historical average rates.feedback

There's some questions now in the market if Trump's going to change his policy and work for the ouster of Assad and there's tensions with the Russians, not to mention North Korea.feedback

It's going to be an important signal that he comes out of these negotiations or talks [looking like] he's open minded. If he's getting ready for a 30 or 40 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, then look out. Then he's already made up his mind.feedback

The markets want to see that the president's efforts to prepare for tariffs are just mainly a negotiating ploy, and not a serious pre-commitment. If President Trump's already made up his mind that he's going to hit China with big tariffs, the market wants to know that now. We might get that sort of thing next week or we might not. Trade has not been a part of the market's rally since November. So far, they've only been talking about growth positives.feedback

The market's been reversing itself on Mexico and on NAFTA for some time. The initial reaction was the bludgeoning of Mexico and the peso. I think the market's anticipating a renegotiated NAFTA that's not so bad as people were fearing.feedback

If it's a really strong report, plus 200,000 again, the market may start to decide to rethink whether it has priced in enough economic improvement for the year.feedback

If it's a really strong report, plus 200 [thousand] again, the market may start to decide to rethink whether its priced in enough economic improvement for the year.feedback

People want to put money into that because they want to believe that growth will be stronger, that inflation will be more of an issue - a more normal economy, in other words. If they wanted to raise rates a third time and they wanted to start priming the pump or preparing the markets, especially the equity markets, now would be the time to do it.feedback

I think Trump is serious about getting things done, but he does have to reckon with the fact that even as the most powerful person in the world he does have to work with others.feedback

For the yen, there's a bit of consolidation after its recent weakening.feedback

We're very ahead of ourselves … We're not calling the top by the end of this year. It could easily run into January. [With] these anticipatory rallies, eventually people do get in, but then you only grind higher. Then it takes only a little bit of bad news, and then everyone wants to take profits at the same time.feedback

We've probably had most of the move that we're going to see between now and the end of the year. Probably in January, people will start to reassess how soon we will get growth from stimulative policy.feedback

There's a lot of window dressing that goes on, and portfolio managers that have to make up for the fact that they underestimated the rally since basically Brexit. Window dressing, Santa Claus rally. Call it what you will. This reflation move is real.feedback

There's not really the bad news hanging over our head like there was a year ago. It's not that sort of global risk that we were worried about last year.feedback

There's still a lot of political bad feeling and it's still possible you could see (politicians) brought up on charges that are murky or gray. That could continue for a while.feedback

For right now, it's not directly a China problem. It's more a trade problem for the rest of the world.feedback

We do think the earnings recession is ending. We're still early in the reporting season, but we see so far the trends that we're looking for.feedback

It would take a big increase in retail sales, increase in inflation to get the Fed to even think twice (about September).feedback

Markets have become increasingly sensitive to the polls as the gap has closed. We still think the odds are strongest in favor of staying. What that does is it set up a binary outcome where it sets up the potential for a big surprise if they vote to leave.feedback

We think the market has already discounted the weak first quarter and possibly even some negative earnings in the second quarter. If the second quarter were as disappointing as the first quarter, you'd see another downturn.feedback

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