Paul Hickey

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Last quote by Paul Hickey

If Obamacare has been bad for the managed care stocks, why have they performed so well under it? And do they really need to be rescued by Congress?feedback
Mar 18 2017 Obamacare
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Paul Hickey is associated, including U.S., S&P, and market. Most recently, Paul Hickey has been quoted saying: “This has been a flat-line market the last two months here.” in the article I’m still a buyer here, ’ market strategist says.
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Paul Hickey quotes

But as far as closing all-time highs are concerned, we've only seen about seven postelection. And, outside of the period right after Brexit where [we] saw 10, we've seen 17 so far this year. Looking back historically, there hasn't been an exceptionally large number of new closing highs in a given year. We tend to focus on what's happened recently, but already people are forgetting that for about a year and a half the S&P did nothing.feedback

Even after these new highs we've seen postelection, individual investor sentiment as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors still hasn't even gotten above 50 percent. So, individual investors not only have been sitting out this recent rally, but most of the bull market.feedback

The top five stocks account for 700 of the just under 1,300 gain.feedback

Price doesn't lie, but internals tell you if the market is having second thoughts. When you're having this much participation, it's a broad-based rally and it's supportive of the rally.feedback

The average performance of Dow stocks is 5.5 percent but the Dow is up over 7 percent because you have the big move in Goldman.feedback

If you start to see the continued strength in the dollar, you'll see these internationally focused companies start to see some underperformance. Different sectors will be impacted differently.feedback

In the near term, that might mean a continuation of the rally as money flows into equities, but as a contrarian indicator, euphoria is not what you want to see.feedback

There is talk about the 'grudge'. Maybe for some people, that's why they're selling, but what I would think is its more towards money reallocation – funds out of tech, which has done so well.feedback

I think lower taxes helps out the prospects of the retailers. I don't think it's a function that nobody's going to ship via the internet anymore. The [performance] gap has been enormous.feedback

Even in the close elections 2000 and 2004, the market went up the week before the election.feedback

There's a lot of variables. Is it going to be a really close election, where we have a rehash of 2000? Or is it going to be a clear-cut winner, and if it's a clear-cut winner, who is it going to be? It's hard to extrapolate.feedback

The polls were close between Kerry and Bush, and on Election Day, the market started rallying. History shows the opposite. If we stay in this funk until Tuesday, you could see the market get a little bit of a lift no matter who wins.feedback

On both sides, even if they came close to half their rhetoric, it wouldn't be a very business friendly environment.feedback

I think the overall tone people are taking is you have the election, you have the Fed coming up in December and you have the earnings season kicking off. The attitude is: 'Why am I going to take a stand on going long here? There are too many unknowns. Why should I be overly aggressive.' Our view is we're going to have a more positive market performance this earnings season as analysts' tone this earnings season was so negative.feedback

If Trump really has a similar performance to his last two debates, that's not going to surprise anybody. The polls are well in Clinton's favor.feedback

If he has a sterling performance in the debate tonight, maybe that will benefit some of the biotech and health care stocks that are getting hit. That's the worry now, that it's going to be such a runaway at the top of the ticket that Republicans are going to lose the Senate and it seems unlikely – but there's fear – that the House could be under threat.feedback

I think it's an overall function of improved tone in credit markets … the high-yield market specifically. They usually trade close with each other. The time you really want to focus on it is when you see divergence in the data and that's what we've basically seen. When you see a divergence like that, you see it resolve itself and our view is that you'll see the equity markets catch up.feedback

You always see some high-profile names giving an earnings warning because there's 500 companies in the S&P 500. So some of those are going to warn every year and they make the headlines.feedback

We have all the problems outside of the U.S., we have slow, steady growth in the U.S., and that's causing a premium on U.S. assets.feedback

When you have a Fed rate hiking cycle where the Fed's behind the ball, the market runs into trouble. When you have these slow, gradual periods where they're hiking rates, the market tends to weather it better.feedback

But it is what it is, and it's nice to enjoy it while it lasts.feedback

One of the periods that was closest to this narrow [in terms of the market range] was in the mid-1960s; the market did very well in the '60s, and that was a good period of calm.feedback

It's been one of the deadest summers ever, and that's what the numbers are showing.feedback

You're not going to be able to buy (the outperformers) cheap. They tend to have much more volatility. You have to have a pretty strong stomach to ride the wave.feedback

You have increased competition. Under Armour is a public company out there now competing for more sponsorships. It's more expensive for the companies involved.feedback

It's a trend you tend to see in earnings. The sector where the bar was set lowest tends to do best.feedback

When you have something like that, that is something that can give companies an easy excuse to lower the bar. That's as good an excuse as any. It was mentioned in less than half the conference calls of companies that reported, and mostly it was mentioned that it wasn't having any noticeable impact yet.feedback

So far, it's been pretty good. What we saw through the end of last week, it was the best beat rate for U.S. companies since the early quarters of the bull market, and even revenue beat rates have shown improvement. Companies have been meeting the numbers. Guidance has been split pretty evenly down the middle, where most quarters in the recent past have been much more negative guidance than positive.feedback

The fact that Amazon has gone up so much has been surprising to us. The underperformance of bricks and mortar has not surprised us.feedback

When you have one of the largest economies in the world see their currency drop like an emerging market currency, people are going to shift capital out of those areas.feedback

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