Paul Hickey

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Last quote by Paul Hickey

You don't hear much about America First policies these days. But it's becoming clear that even if you don't get thorough tax policy reform done or a big infrastructure stimulus program done, the stock market isn't falling apart. Instead, the stocks that are leading the market now are not America First plays, they are international plays – companies geared toward international exposure that benefit from a weaker dollar and better growth overseas.feedback
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May 19 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Paul Hickey is associated, including U.S., S&P, and market. Most recently, Paul Hickey has been quoted saying: “There was a lot of optimism by people in the markets about America First policies right after the election, but in 2017 in actual terms, that has been completely flipped.” in the article In the Stock Market, International Is Actually First.
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Paul Hickey quotes

And so ultimately in this rally over the last year we've seen new highs continue to expand. So if we get an upward leg in the market here and we don't see new highs expand, well then that's going to be a red flag.feedback

Our view is that [high valuations] are never the cause of a sell-off; you need another catalyst. So sure, the market is expensive, but history shows it can become a lot more expensive. You need a catalyst to get the market to decline.feedback

If Obamacare has been bad for the managed care stocks, why have they performed so well under it? And do they really need to be rescued by Congress?feedback

Rather than the market that lifts all boats, it's more the Fed-driven market we're seeing and the economically cyclically driven market. …. We're looking at materials, we're looking at technology, financials.feedback

You need some worry in the market to keep things going, otherwise there's nothing to climb there.feedback

I don't think that it is necessarily a cause for concern, but investors should be aware that this lack of volatility is extremely uncommon, so they should expect to see volatility start to increase going forward, especially with the Fed poised to hike rates at a more consistent pace. It's interesting that with all the supposed turmoil and chaos supposedly taking place in Washington with the new administration, the market has been extraordinarily calm. Perhaps the narrative of chaos in Washington is an exaggeration.feedback

This has been a flat-line market the last two months here.feedback

I think it's somewhat encouraging to see there's a healthy level of skepticism on the markets. If we can get individual investors back into the market this year, you could see the bull market trade another leg higher.feedback

I think we've had a big run in the market; more than anything, people are looking for an excuse to sell things.feedback

The growth of 401(k) accounts and automatic deductions at payday is certainly a factor at play. And it has actually become more pronounced since the 1980s when 401(k) plans really started to become more mainstream.feedback

So for all the uncertainty and disorganization going on people are talking about with the Trump incoming administration, the market seems to like it.feedback

As for the short-term, I think you could still see some optimism for the new year. You could see some short-term upturn.feedback

Last year, we were anticipating a rough start to the year because of earnings, and then stability. This year we could see the opposite.feedback

In the short term, we may see some optimism next week and into the new year.feedback

You saw stocks were in a sideways range for most of that period. The market started breaking out of that range and sentiment followed.feedback

A small pullback could happen any time. It doesn't seem like that given the last several days. But the way we would look at a pullback here is for people who have been on the sidelines to add some exposure rather than to start panicking. We should see earnings growth really pick up going forward into Q4 and next year.feedback

But as far as closing all-time highs are concerned, we've only seen about seven postelection. And, outside of the period right after Brexit where [we] saw 10, we've seen 17 so far this year. Looking back historically, there hasn't been an exceptionally large number of new closing highs in a given year. We tend to focus on what's happened recently, but already people are forgetting that for about a year and a half the S&P did nothing.feedback

It seems as if we've been hitting new highs every day recently.feedback

Even after these new highs we've seen postelection, individual investor sentiment as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors still hasn't even gotten above 50 percent. So, individual investors not only have been sitting out this recent rally, but most of the bull market.feedback

The top five stocks account for 700 of the just under 1,300 gain.feedback

Price doesn't lie, but internals tell you if the market is having second thoughts. When you're having this much participation, it's a broad-based rally and it's supportive of the rally.feedback

The average performance of Dow stocks is 5.5 percent but the Dow is up over 7 percent because you have the big move in Goldman.feedback

If you start to see the continued strength in the dollar, you'll see these internationally focused companies start to see some underperformance. Different sectors will be impacted differently.feedback

In the near term, that might mean a continuation of the rally as money flows into equities, but as a contrarian indicator, euphoria is not what you want to see.feedback

There is talk about the 'grudge'. Maybe for some people, that's why they're selling, but what I would think is its more towards money reallocation – funds out of tech, which has done so well.feedback

I think lower taxes helps out the prospects of the retailers. I don't think it's a function that nobody's going to ship via the internet anymore. The [performance] gap has been enormous.feedback

There's still Friday, Monday and Tuesday, so you never know.feedback

Even in the close elections 2000 and 2004, the market went up the week before the election.feedback

There's a lot of variables. Is it going to be a really close election, where we have a rehash of 2000? Or is it going to be a clear-cut winner, and if it's a clear-cut winner, who is it going to be? It's hard to extrapolate.feedback

The polls were close between Kerry and Bush, and on Election Day, the market started rallying. History shows the opposite. If we stay in this funk until Tuesday, you could see the market get a little bit of a lift no matter who wins.feedback

On both sides, even if they came close to half their rhetoric, it wouldn't be a very business friendly environment.feedback

I think the overall tone people are taking is you have the election, you have the Fed coming up in December and you have the earnings season kicking off. The attitude is: 'Why am I going to take a stand on going long here? There are too many unknowns. Why should I be overly aggressive.' Our view is we're going to have a more positive market performance this earnings season as analysts' tone this earnings season was so negative.feedback

If Trump really has a similar performance to his last two debates, that's not going to surprise anybody. The polls are well in Clinton's favor.feedback

If he has a sterling performance in the debate tonight, maybe that will benefit some of the biotech and health care stocks that are getting hit. That's the worry now, that it's going to be such a runaway at the top of the ticket that Republicans are going to lose the Senate and it seems unlikely – but there's fear – that the House could be under threat.feedback

I think it's an overall function of improved tone in credit markets … the high-yield market specifically. They usually trade close with each other. The time you really want to focus on it is when you see divergence in the data and that's what we've basically seen. When you see a divergence like that, you see it resolve itself and our view is that you'll see the equity markets catch up.feedback

I think we've seen the trough in earnings.feedback

You always see some high-profile names giving an earnings warning because there's 500 companies in the S&P 500. So some of those are going to warn every year and they make the headlines.feedback

We have all the problems outside of the U.S., we have slow, steady growth in the U.S., and that's causing a premium on U.S. assets.feedback

When you have a Fed rate hiking cycle where the Fed's behind the ball, the market runs into trouble. When you have these slow, gradual periods where they're hiking rates, the market tends to weather it better.feedback

Since early summer, we've seen three different extremes.feedback

But it is what it is, and it's nice to enjoy it while it lasts.feedback

One of the periods that was closest to this narrow [in terms of the market range] was in the mid-1960s; the market did very well in the '60s, and that was a good period of calm.feedback

It's been one of the deadest summers ever, and that's what the numbers are showing.feedback

You're not going to be able to buy (the outperformers) cheap. They tend to have much more volatility. You have to have a pretty strong stomach to ride the wave.feedback

You have increased competition. Under Armour is a public company out there now competing for more sponsorships. It's more expensive for the companies involved.feedback

It's a trend you tend to see in earnings. The sector where the bar was set lowest tends to do best.feedback

When you have something like that, that is something that can give companies an easy excuse to lower the bar. That's as good an excuse as any. It was mentioned in less than half the conference calls of companies that reported, and mostly it was mentioned that it wasn't having any noticeable impact yet.feedback

So far, it's been pretty good. What we saw through the end of last week, it was the best beat rate for U.S. companies since the early quarters of the bull market, and even revenue beat rates have shown improvement. Companies have been meeting the numbers. Guidance has been split pretty evenly down the middle, where most quarters in the recent past have been much more negative guidance than positive.feedback

The fact that Amazon has gone up so much has been surprising to us. The underperformance of bricks and mortar has not surprised us.feedback

When you have one of the largest economies in the world see their currency drop like an emerging market currency, people are going to shift capital out of those areas.feedback

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