Paul Hollingsworth - Capital Economics

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Last quote by Paul Hollingsworth

Our expectation that inflation will peak at about 3.2pc in October means that Governor Carney will have to get out his letter-writing pen next month. However, we don't anticipate he will be writing letters for long. Indeed, we think inflation will be back below 3pc by the end of this year.feedback
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Oct 17 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Paul Hollingsworth is associated, including Monetary Policy Committee, market, and rate. Most recently, Paul Hollingsworth has been quoted saying: “If overall industrial production held steady in September, then the sector would expand by 0.8pc over the third quarter as a whole, more than reversing the second quarter's 0.3pc contraction.” in the article Britain’s builders try to dodge recession as orders bounce back.
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Paul Hollingsworth quotes

May 17 2017 - Unemployment

We continue to think that this tightening will deliver a modest rise in nominal wage growth over the course of this year. It might not be enough to keep up with inflation, which we expect to peak at just over 3pc in the fourth quarter. However, as inflation begins to fall back next year as the upward pressures from the drop in the pound start to fade, we think real wages will begin to rise again. As a result, the forthcoming squeeze on real wage growth should be nowhere near as severe or prolonged as that seen after the financial crisis.feedback

May 08 2017

If we are right in thinking that the economy will hold up fairly well this year … and that growth remains solid next year, rather than slows as the consensus expects, then the MPC should be in a position to begin normalising rates in 2018, much sooner than most expect.feedback

Apr 24 2017

We remain optimistic that the manufacturing sector should perform well this year, and should help to offset some of the slowdown in consumer spending.feedback

Apr 18 2017 - British elections 2017

This election is probably going to be fairly certain compared with previous general elections - it is just a case of by what margin the Conservative government increases its majority rather than whether it is going to be a hung parliament. It is pretty clear cut. If it does then allow Theresa May to have a stronger mandate, it will allow her to push ahead with the Brexit agenda a bit more easily. So that might reduce a little bit of uncertainty over the next couple of years as there is more chance of that getting past unimpeded.feedback

Apr 12 2017 - Unemployment

We doubt that a repeat of the erosion of households' spending power seen after sterling's last major depreciation in 2008 is on the cards, when the rise in inflation was exacerbated by a pick-up in commodity prices and a series of VAT hikes.feedback

Apr 12 2017 - Unemployment

Moreover, we remain optimistic that the decline in labour market slack will feed through into at least some pick-up in nominal wage growth. In any case, consumer spending should be supported by strong confidence, jobs growth, and supportive credit conditions.feedback

Mar 31 2017

While the drop in the pound is clearly boosting inflation, it is also having some offsetting positive impacts through bringing about a long-awaited rebalancing of the economy towards the external sector.feedback

Mar 23 2017

What's more, it would take a very large monthly rise of over 3 percent in March to prevent sales volumes from actually falling on a quarterly basis in Q1, after a strong 1.2 percent quarterly rise in Q4. Indeed, with annual growth in the retail sales deflator picking up from 1.9 percent in January to 2.8 percent in February, it is unlikely that we will return to the strong rates of sales volumes growth seen in the second half of last year any time soon.feedback

Mar 18 2017 - Article 50

The risks to the MPC's near-term forecast for output are probably skewed slightly to the downside, and there is a risk that uncertainty will build as article 50 is triggered and the EU negotiations get under way. As a result, we continue to think that the MPC will hold off until around the end of next year before raising interest rates.feedback

Feb 02 2017

Despite calls in some quarters for the MPC (monetary policy committee) to consider raising rates now, the latest inflation report did not suggest that interest rate rises are imminent.feedback

Nov 17 2016

This rate of spending growth looks unsustainable, and there are a number of headwinds on the horizon.feedback

May 09 2016

The governor will be extremely wary of being seen as wading in on the Brexit debate.feedback

Jan 14 2016

While the chances of a later hike are clearly building, we continue to think that the Monetary Policy Committee will hike rates this year, much sooner than the market expects.feedback

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