Peter Boockvar


Last quote by Peter Boockvar

This will be the first year in this cycle that all four major central banks are pulling back in some form with their
NEW Mar 29 2017 Trump Presidency
Peter Boockvar has been quoted 148 times. The one recent article where Peter Boockvar has been quoted is Dow falls triple digits as optimism on Trump agenda diminishes; financials lag. Most recently, Peter Boockvar was quoted as having said, “I am really disappointed that the ACA is not going to change for the better (for now) and am really [mad] that tax reform now may get all chopped up with potentially only modest changes.”.
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Peter Boockvar quotes

This is not a pullback. This is just a rest. I think that people want to hear what [Trump's] going to say about taxes. The rubber is meeting the road now on tax reform. Either it's happening or not. Paul Ryan today reported he's fully behind his tax plan, which includes the border-adjustment tax. The pushback is getting intense, and the lobbying is getting intense. I think people are realizing that without border-adjusted tax, there's no tax

The ebullience speaks for itself as manufacturers will be a main beneficiary of any corporate tax changes. This joins a slew of euphoric sentiment indicators that we've seen for months but the actual rate of economic growth right now for Q1 is still estimated to be around the same 2% we've been stuck

They've trained the markets not to believe when they're going to raise rates. If the total tax package happens, ... earnings [go] up like 6, 7 percent. The stock market's rallied about 9 percent, so we pretty much priced in the expected earnings growth rate. What I don't think we've priced in is the offset of what happens with interest rates. It's this tug of war between fiscal stimulus and monetary

This index has now given back 4 of the 6 pt post election jump over the past two months but still remains well above the breakeven of

Whether the Ryan plan passes with the border adjusted tax is highly controversial. ... The Senate is going to be a lot more resistant to

We're increasing the probability of rate hikes. The ECB is cutting [quantitative easing] QE this year, the Bank of England is going to end QE this year and possibly raise rates. You have the Bank of Japan getting tested every night in their yield curve control experiment. I think that central banks don't matter is

The market's thinking central banks aren't going to matter this year. I don't see that as

The rally yesterday in stocks after Trump said he will unveil a 'phenomenal' tax plan made sense because we wanted to see him focus on what was most important and not get distracted by other noise and tweets. There remains though the issue of what will be

It's been a Trump Kool-Aid rally since Nov. 8 on the hopes of tax cuts. Now we'll see what he's going to do. If all he's going to do is back the Ryan plan, he's been behind that already. We're going to see a cut in the corporate tax rate. It's just a matter at what level and to what extent we've priced it in. Earnings should go up 5 to 10 percent if there's tax reform. We sort of priced in the expected improvement in earnings from that tax

The extreme sentiment is more of a headwind to further gains, rather than we could head

I think ideally, [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen, in her models, wants to raise three times for the next three years and get to her magic 3 percent. They said they're not even going to raise once until June. I think she is going to be a little more hawkish next week. I think she wants to give herself flexibility that March is a real possibility. [And] I think the market is not set up for

I think there are general concerns with what's going on with Europe. We're seeing weakness just generally in European bonds. Now there's questions about when we're going to get the full effect of (U.S.) tax reform. While they wanted it in 2017, we might not get it until 2018. The problem with the delay in tax reform is it will have a direct impact on the economy. Decisions on spending will be put off. The strength of Treasurys of late coincides with the strength in

Regardless of what Harker thinks we know that it really only matters what Yellen, Fischer and Dudley think. As its clear that the Fed only likes to raise rates on days where there is a press conference and they are scheduled for 4 this year at the same time they want to hike 3 times, they better get moving then. We still are calling for a March hike but the fed funds futures market barely blinked after

The Fed funds rate should not be where it is. It is way too low relative to the state of the economy. It is way too low relative to the potential fiscal stimulus we're going to get. The Fed is just playing this fearful game that somehow they are going to muck everything up if they happen to raise more than three times this

I'm as excited as anybody in having lower taxes and in easing regulatory burden. But I think the tax reform is a lot more complicated and I think we need to see how this unfolds over the next few months. So we'll have this tug of war between tightening of monetary policy and higher interest rates on one side and the optimism about fiscal relief on the other

They've not changed their official response at all since the election, acting almost like it never happened. They believe that .625 percent is the right rate for an economy that has essentially met their stated mandates, eight years into a

I don't recall ever seeing such a discrepancy between print and estimate in this survey but ADP is saying there was seasonal issues with retail and moderate weather helped too. They believe the pace should still remain at about 175k per

Wage growth in the aggregate remains only decent. We continue to wait for the wage/salary acceleration and the hope is that it comes when friendlier fiscal policy kicks in, and a pick up in economic growth

The weekend's news is important, but is very difficult to quantify its economic

If this becomes embedded, this has economic implications. Will technology companies get the best people? Will overseas countries respond in kind? Will it affect business? It's all part of the same U.S.-centric protectionism. I get the security issues, but it is still part of the mentality: 'Everyone is stealing our business. Every one is out to kill us, and we're going to close our

The year ends on a mediocre fashion but policy is about to change. Positively on the fiscal side and a drag on the monetary side (so we can consider Q4 data old news but it does set the stage and baseline for 2017).feedback

People should be deepening their analysis of what's to come rather than just chase price. The market is still in its honeymoon phase. I don't know. I still think the market is going to end the year more determined by interest rates rather than Trump fiscal policy. I think if the stock market is right in their optimism on U.S. growth, there's no way interest rates aren't going

I continuously say that the industry and the first-time buyer need more homes priced below $250,000, but the high costs of lots, labor and regulations puts tight margins on this price point. In coming months we'll watch to see what influence the rise in rates

The only reason we were up before was the optimism ahead of the

I think we're back in this chop-fest that we've been in since December. Now that he's president, people want to see details. They want to see details of tax policies. The rhetoric now has to turn into realty. It all begins now. This is the same market we've had for six weeks now. The trump rally essentially ended in the middle of

But he did emphasize America first, American jobs, and that's not a free trade mentality, and it sounds protectionist. We knew that was his

He sounded protectionist and 'America first' … Everybody knows that's part of this … This is not a state of the union where people are going to get policy-type discussions. A speech like this is supposed to sound broad. I don't think there should have been any expectation of

I keep wondering what the multiple should be. Should we still trade 17-18 times earnings now that we have a potentially protectionist president, and we have rising rates? The Fed is raising rates. This is a different moment now, and we're not sure what we're going to get. We had a powerful rally that priced in a lot of

As seen in the US treasury market response to a still dovish Janet Yellen and the rise in rates after her speech, the same thing is happening in longer term bonds in Europe after the very dovish commentary from Mario

The reality is that Trump is where people are now going to start deepening their analysis, and they're realizing there's no free tax cuts. This now impacts what he can potentially

There's no question but the inflation numbers are very important because you're seeing a global rise. You saw UK CPI coming in higher than expected. This is a global phenomenon of rising inflation. It does hamstring central

This stuff may not lead to actual tariffs, but just verbalizing it, you could freeze decisionmaking. It may not be an actual tariff, but if it starts influencing business decision, it may work to a similar extent. The reality is people were looking at this with rose-colored

Treasuries sold off after the number because I think they are honing in on the better private sector upward revision to October and November which offset the December

Bottom line, as stated, job growth continues to slow as is typical in an aged recovery. While there are still plenty of able bodied workers on the sidelines, for those realistically looking for work, it's getting tougher and tougher to find the right, qualified (and motivated person).feedback

Spanish banks have made provisions for what they would have to pay in the event of a negative outcome but with the stocks lower anyway, apparently by not enough. Spanish banks tried to protect themselves from [negative interest rate policy] and now will get penalized for

Let's add this figure to the list of [surveys] asking businesses whether things are better, the same or worse that are embracing the possibilities of Trumponomics. Thus, they measure the direction of change, not the degree. I'm optimistic too, but reality now needs to meet the very high

Unfortunately, the Fed is in a no-win situation, because if they continue to go gradually in raising interest rates, even if they raise three times, if that's not enough relative to where inflation and growth is going, then the bond market's going to do it for

I'm happy that hopefully growth can be driven more by the private sector and not monetary policy and

And if they get too aggressive in raising interest rates, which we need to get ... over with anyway, well, then they risk putting us into recession and tweets from Donald

This is out of control, as this is happening at the same time their growth rate is in secular

It is quite amazing how the stock market went from loving slow growth, QE and no rate hikes over the past 7 years and has now transitioned that love to the hopes for quicker growth, no QE and rising interest rates. The $64k question in coming years is when higher rates will matter for equity valuations that have only been seen in 1929 and 2000 in many

A new political regime took hold on November 8th and tomorrow we'll see if there is any acknowledgement of that from the FOMC and whether we're about to embark on a new monetary regime. I would define 'new monetary regime' as anything more aggressive than the pace of one rate hike per

The Trump enthusiasm continues as the UoM consumer confidence index rose to 98 from 93.8 in November. With the rise in optimism, we'll soon see to what extent this translates into a change in economic

Bottom line, the story remains the same in that the pace of firing's remains

It's one gigantic Trump-inspired performance chase right

Bonds are consolidating a recent sell-off. If [the 10-year Treasury] yields renew their recent rise, 2.5, 2.75, people have to wonder what that means for

No one wants to say, I want to get fired and sit on my butt.' But when people do lose their jobs, they're not being incentivized enough to go back to work compared to the benefits they get by not being at

Certainly a lot of this rally is hopes and wishes, and you came very far, very fast. I continue to argue this dramatic rise in interest rates that happened coincidentally with the rise in stocks should not be

We'll see. If there's no deal and oil is pressured, it could make this controlled pull back a bit more

This also comes coincident with extreme overbought

As long as the overall economic picture continues to improve, this seven-year bull market can make it into year

You can argue it's already affected the FANG stocks from a valuation standpoint. It's a process more than an

If you look at small companies, the high-yield market right now and the sell-off that it's experienced over the past week, obviously coincident with selling in investment grade and U.S. Treasurys is the rise in the cost of

And either yields are going to calm down, and bonds will bounce back, or this 11 percent rally in six trading days in the Russell is going to reverse

And while I understand the enthusiasm for small cap stocks, because they're less sensitive to dollar strength, the index is populated with a lot of biotech and financials that have participated a lot over the past

There was little sign in this data of consumer hesitancy ahead of the election that some retailers have blamed (Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts in particular but restaurant/bar sales did fall) for soft October

I'm optimistic that the regulatory noose around the economy is going to loosen up. It'll be bullish with lower taxes. The problem that Trump faces is that we have an unwinding of a tremendous bubble. This is the biggest bubble we've ever had that is now

The July lows in global interest rates we may never see again in our lifetime. We have to deal with the consequences of that shift higher in interest rates because the Fed and other central banks have created an economic construct and an asset-priced construct based on very low interest rates, so there has to be an

These are expensive stocks that don't like higher interest rates. These have been the leaders and the leaders are getting whacked…the FANG (Facebook,, Netflix, Alphabet) are expensive stocks that don't like higher interest rates because higher interest rates expose things that are

I've been arguing for a while now not to ignore the supply cuts that have been going on for the past

The question is how do equity prices respond to the rise in interest rates when the last five years they've been medicated on low interest rates?feedback

This brings a problem. If in 2017 she starts raising rates because the market is forcing her, that's much different than her raising rates on her own volition, and that's a different outcome in terms of their

The big picture with gold is not who the next president is. It's where the dollar goes, and it's monetary policy, not just here but

Hillary wins, good for stocks. Trump wins, bad for stocks. But, anyone who thinks deeper than this knows that the response is going to be much more nuanced. Ask any owner of a healthcare, financial or defense

What happens Monday and Tuesday, who knows? There's this general feeling that on Wednesday, people think it's binary. Trump wins, the market goes down. Hillary wins, the market goes up. It's more nuanced than that. If Hillary wins, and Democrats take the Senate, if you own health care or financial stocks, you're not going to be happy that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are running the

We should all hope the winner, no matter who it is, is clear cut. We don't want to hear about whining losers. We want to elect the person and move

Putting aside their personalities and policy proposals, it will likely not matter who the next president is when it comes to where markets go. As we are in the second-longest bull market of all time, and as we approach the eighth year of this economic expansion, odds are high that whoever the next president is, they will preside over a recession, a bear market and rising debts and

The 4 quarter average growth run rate is now exactly at 1.5% and Q3 was saved by a big boost in exports and agricultural exports within that. Personal spending is at a 2.5% average run rate over the past 4 quarters while capital spending remains

We can continue to analyze earnings and the economic fundamentals every which way to try to figure out where stocks go but let's be honest, it's all about where rates go in the monetary world we live

Bottom line, a [two-year] note yield approaching a 4-month high didn't bring out the buyers. Yes, the Fed seems very intent on raising rates in December as they seem to be looking for every reason to do so and maybe that explains some of the

On the better than expected print as people believe this will spill over into the ISM report in a few weeks, the 10 yr yield is back at 1.75% after trading at 1.73% prior to the release. The 2 yr yield is up by 1 bp to

Core sales grew by just 2.5% y/o/y, the slowest pace of gain since November 2015. We know the consumer is the only thing keeping the US economy out of recession and we will likely get a trimming to Q3 GDP estimates today on the core retail sales

He "would love deflation. It would raise the purchasing power of my money [and] it would lower my cost of

The minutes told us nothing. We came out of the last meeting and, in the press conference, Yellen said the case for a rate hike had strengthened. Nothing seems to have changed that based on a lot of the speeches. We know it was a close call based on three dissenters, and the minutes basically confirmed

We have a Fed president, albeit nonvoting, who is saying essentially, Let's wait to see who the next president will be before we hike, because they may have certain economic policies initiated that we may need to respond to or maybe not, but let's wait

Economic growth is falling to 1.5 percent. The Atlanta Fed, two months ago, was predicting 3.8 percent growth. Now, they're predicting 2.1 percent growth. Under those scenarios, the Fed should actually be cutting interest rates. They're really stuck

The unemployment rate is at 5 percent and inflation is now rising, so based on that, they should be raising interest

China macro has taken a back seat of late but data such as this should highlight again the mediocre state of global economic

Today's the first day where people said, Wow, what happens if the Republicans lose Congress? I think it's still a far-fetched possibility. There's no question if Hillary wins that Paul Ryan will get all the support he needs from Republicans. As long as they can keep the House, they can block anything Hillary wants to

I really think this rise in rates, because it's happening not because the data has gotten better, has really thrown a wrench into things. If rates were rising because the economy is getting better, I would say that's

If they raise in November or December, the market's going to have another hissy

Yellen's in a tough spot. She's probably glad she's got a month to think about it. If they don't raise in November, that could be considered political. What are they waiting for if they are so convinced it's time to raise?feedback

Wage growth is still mediocre, spending is as well as healthcare takes up a larger portion of a households budget (along with rent for those that do). As for inflation, expect headline prints to continue to rise in coming quarters with the stabilization in oil prices on top of sticky services

The Fed's running the economy. How can you not discuss the Fed? … It's a tough situation, but the Fed has immersed themselves so deeply in the economy so that any honest discussion of it has to include the Fed. They threatened their own independence by going as far overboard as they have. These institutions were never built to take on these

The problem is if he wins, he's opened up this Pandora's box. At every single Fed meeting, he's going to be asked, What do you think about what the Fed did? What do you think about Yellen's job?' I don't think that's where you want to

I think it gets to the larger picture of the destruction of the profitability and economics of banking in this modern-day regulatory and central bank world we're

It is a tax on capital. Every day, [negative rates] are bleeding the European

I believe Lael Brainard's dovish speech a week ago Monday clinched no rate hike today as one has to go back to Wayne Angell's tenure in the early 1990's to have a rate hike with a Federal Reserve Governor dissenting. If Lael agrees to a rate hike today after what she said last Monday would be quite an about face and an embarrassing one. We'll get an updated dot plot today but that has been rendered worthless

Whatever the BoJ chooses to do all eyes are on the reaction of the bank stocks in what will be most likely an attempt to steepen the yield curve. It took a 50% decline in the Topix bank stock index from the June 2015 high to the July 2016 low that alarmed many that as much as a central banker wants 2% inflation, destroying your banking system in order to get there is a really stupid

Our largest holder, China, was a net seller of $21 billion of notes and bonds after selling $28 billion worth in June. They, of course, are slowly bleeding reserves. Japan our second-largest holder was a net buyer of $3.6 billion after selling $13.2 billion in

In terms of the size of their economy, no one is doing it like Japan is. Their balance sheet is going to be two-thirds the size of their

This is the fragility beginning to rise in Treasurys and global sovereign bonds. We've all been trading together. It's been one big sovereign bond trade

Bottom line, a major crutch for the U.S. Treasury market over the past decade of foreign central bank reserve accumulation has gone away for now. Foreign flows were a big part of Treasury bond buying. Take that away and central banks take away the stimulus that was affecting long-term interest rates. Deficits are expected to head higher. This is a process that takes time to see these things play

There's a global recognition that you need a healthy banking system to have a strong

The only reason why we're at these (stock market) levels is because of low interest rates and central bank policy. ... When the Fed removes accommodation, things are seen for what they really are, not for what people want them to

I find it unusual that she would put together a speech just days before they go into a quiet period before the

The economic data certainly doesn't call for a rate hike but the fed funds rate should never have been this low in the 7th year of an economic

Looking at the flow of the data over the past few months, it is easy to argue that a rate hike now doesn't make much sense. However, why are short-term interest rates now about where they were during the Great Depression in the early 1930s as we approach year eight of this economic expansion?feedback

Yellen's speech has held the markets prisoner. They can't go anywhere. They're in this little tiny space with bars around them, and they can't move until she

Being on constant Fed Watch has become so exhausting. We've been led in so many different directions only to be spun around again that until I see exactly what they do, I'm losing patience in listening to what they

New home sales are still about 8 percent below the 25-year average, so everything has to be put into perspective. [Wednesday's] number is somewhat old news in that it's measuring contracts that were signed months ago. New home sales is more timely. I put more stake into [Tuesday's]

Single family starts of 770,000 is about exactly where the year to date average is, 25 percent below the 25 year average and 58 percent below the 2006 peak. Yes, we continue to be in a housing recovery but let's put it into

Rate hike odds by year-end shifted from 32 percent to 40 percent after the jobs number. For September it went from 18 percent to 22 percent. I believe these modest expectations notwithstanding, (Friday's) data continues to point to the quote I took from a friend in referring to the Fed as the Boy Who Cried Rate

The U.S. consumer is the only thing keeping the U.S. economy out of a recession and we've heard just this week the worries over auto sales and weakness for restaurants. I'm not calling for a recession, but will zero to slightly negative growth feel much different than 1 percent growth?feedback

It's always backward-looking, so we have to understand that. Let's say the Atlanta Fed is right. Then we're looking at first half growth of 1.5

If Ford is right and auto sales are slowing, I don't know what the catalysts are for that second half recovery. Growth is really challenged around the

We get bombarded with Fed speak this week just as the fed funds futures market is saying the Fed won't definitively raise rates again until December 2018. The last Fed dots had the expected fed funds rate at 2.4% by the end of 2018 vs 3% seen in March. The disconnect and disbelief

Earnings could tell a big story. I'm not exactly clear on what it's trading on right now. I'm not exactly clear with the fundamental story. … Everyone's just chasing price

This data was pre-Brexit. We can assume if the global economy's going to slow post-vote, we can see how it was

They're going to adjust to this. I see this for the U.K. a gigantic inconvenience. Deals will get renegotiated, life will move on. The question is obviously for the rest of the European Union, but the U.K. will deal with the EU just as we do, just as Norway does, just as Switzerland

Honestly, all these polls are dizzying. I think the market just wants to get this vote over at this point. Stocks will probably breathe an initial sigh of relief after the vote while questions around global growth challenges

It's going to handcuff people until that vote comes out. It's a binary event. It's in the context of a global market where everybody is worried about growth

There is no smooth way out of this monetary cycle. We either get the rate adjustment out of the way now or stay on the path that is Japan. I'm for the former even though the odds of both a recession and a bear market are the likely outcomes in the short

With respect to single family, the stair step recovery continues, but oh man is there still a ways to go. Starts would have to rise by 33 percent just to get back to the 30-year

Certainly yesterday we traded with the yen strengthening and today we're doing it

To me, this is a really dangerous game the markets are playing. I think what the Bank of Japan did backfired and I think people are realizing we reached limits with the Bank of Japan and the ECB [European Central Bank] and maybe there's nothing left for them to do if this is the response they're going to

Certainly the dollar weakness has relieved some stress on multinationals. It's like the flavor of the day. In 2013 and 2014, the market loved the weak yen. Now all of a sudden, they love the strong yen and that's the same case with the stronger euro. The weaker dollar – all it's doing is releasing a pressure point markets were worried

They're non-voting so the market takes (it with) a grain of salt, but maybe this is the beginning of an attempt to set up the market for an April or June rate hike. The data set them up for a March hike. The communication did

It is safe to say that after yesterday's FOMC statement, the Yellen press conference and what was said in them, the communication and structural strategy of 'data dependency' has been officially neutered. The Fed's goal is now a perfect world. As we of course will never get there, the rest of us are left flying blind as to what to expect from monetary

Market multiples will go down as people lose faith in central bank influence. People should see central banks are out of bullets in terms of their influence. You put that on top of earnings growth that is slowing

To me we just saw a bear market rally over the past month. Very likely the Fed and Bank of Japan next week caps the end of that bear market rally. Central banks are really the most important thing in terms of their

I think what we've seen over the past month is a bear market rally and what we hear from central bankers over the next week could mark the end of

Any time we get a stable night in China, (that) leads to calmness in Europe, and calmness in those two markets helps

The question is, can we get enough lift to push above 1,940 (on the S&P 500) and if we can, we can have a shot at that 1,970 - 2,000 level. You're going to really need buyers to come into the market. ... Short covering can only take us so

We had a nice move here. The market is now overbought for the first time in a

Bottom line on Yellen's testimony, of the 3 possible options I laid out in my morning note, I believe the Janet Yellen testimony fell into Door Number 2, the non committal one. I say this because she acknowledged all the risks to the downside and positives on the upside to the outlook without leaning in any one direction, thus leaving us with a 'let's play it by ear', middle of the road

I don't read too much into it. There's a lot of data this week. What I do read into it is the Fed's going to have quite a fight in wanting to raise interest rates again this

I think markets are maybe betting and hoping there will be dovish commentary from the Fed tomorrow. .. If they acknowledge the tightening of the financial conditions and softening in growth people will take them as acknowledging four hikes are off the

Obviously it started with growth concerns overseas and now we're (hitting) ourselves with the same growth concerns as retail sales were weak and Empire manufacturing that

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