Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group


Last quote by Peter Boockvar

It's a weird time. I'm of the belief the stock market is not the same discounting mechanism it was. Unless the worry is smack in the middle of their face they don't care. They are thinking about tax reform and everything else pales in comparison… Even if it's a 2018 passage…they're staring at that 20 percent corporate tax rate and they're
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Nov 20 2017
Peter Boockvar has been quoted 262 times. The one recent article where Peter Boockvar has been quoted is Thanksgiving week is usually good for stocks. Most recently, Peter Boockvar was quoted as having said, “We're all very focused on the U.S. market, but the European stock market has not been trading well at all. Each day that goes by we get closer to quantitative easing in Europe getting cut in half....We have another rate hike next month. This is not just about tax reform. Because of the internet and stores changing their hours, Monday is more relevant now because everybody goes back to work and gets online. That's when the deals really kick in.”.
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Peter Boockvar quotes

Oct 18 2017

Typically you eventually get to a much flatter yield that could lead to a recession. Right now it's hard to get to inversion because of how actually low short-term interest rates are. You don't need to get to the inversion this

Oct 18 2017

I think it's the expectation that further Fed tightening, whether it's on the short end or it's the quantitative tightening, is eventually going to slow the U.S. economy, and that's what the yield curve is saying, while the stock market is drunk on hopes for tax

Oct 18 2017

We need the supply, there is no question, but whether it's the rising cost of labor, lots, raw materials (lumber prices at a 13-year high) and permitting, the builders just can't deliver

Oct 18 2017

It's clear what stocks have celebrated this year, and that is the global growth rebound and hopes for US tax cuts, along with a year of still massive QE from the ECB and BoJ. Fed rate hikes, QT and the end of ECB QE I guess will matter more next

Oct 12 2017 - Brexit

This maybe eases the tensions in the negotiations and gives people more time to adjust. At the same time, some people just want this thing to be over with, and this does not help

Oct 09 2017 - Netflix

I think this is a continuation of what we've seen recently. The path of least resistance remains higher until proven

Sep 26 2017

The recent home sales data has reflected a slower pace and I continue to believe it's due to more a push back on

Sep 20 2017

Here we are almost 10 years in to something called temporary, and that's one of the reasons why they're going to shrink their balance sheet, because monetization of the debt is the last place the Fed wants to be

Sep 18 2017

This tightening cycle is about to ramp up with liquidity being drawn each and every month and by another higher increment after 3-month intervals until at some point $50 billion per month of liquidity will suddenly

Sep 11 2017 - IPhone

It's Apple-specific. It will only have an influence because of the size of its market cap, nothing more than

Sep 11 2017 - IPhone

We've seen many times when the Apple stock rallies into the unveiling of a new phone, and after that it sells off or consolidates. Apple is up almost 40 percent this year. If history is any guide, it sells off on the news. …The bar is very high here for Apple to deliver. To get a market cap stock up this big, up 40 percent this year, takes a lot. Now it has to

Aug 23 2017

There is still no pickup in sales for homes priced below $300,000, and this is where most of the first time households would be shopping in. I repeat that the housing industry needs a moderation in home price gains in order to better compete with renting where rents increases are now

Aug 22 2017

The only reason people are talking about tax reform is because that's where the focus is naturally shifting. I think this [Politico] article just made people think maybe there's a chance, but I think if people understood the political situation, they would understand it doesn't have a

Aug 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

For the first time, people are now questioning if he can get anything done policy-wise. His agenda is under threat. I think it's Trump-related. People are worried about the unraveling of his team, his administration's authority and what this means for tax reform. Every day, he makes a new enemy in Congress. Today's he's picked a fight with [South Carolina Sen.] Lindsey

Aug 17 2017

The Fed is still raising interest rates, tightening in this moderate economy. We need an offset. The odds are

Aug 17 2017

In order to continue this expansion, you need some tax relief and some stimulus kick. Do you put it into extra innings because of tax reform?

Aug 17 2017

The market and the economy do not care about Trump's personality. They will only start to care if it starts to influence the policies that they are hoping for. Until they know whether tax reform is going to be kicked to next year because of his political issues now, they're not going to

Aug 15 2017

Evidence has grown that buyers are becoming much more sensitive to these persistent 5-6 percent price gains that have put the median home price at a record high. It's great for sellers but more challenging for buyers who have to come up with a down payment on ever-rising prices. Low mortgage rates and 3 percent down payment deals help, but pricing issues helps to explain the historically low homeownership

Aug 15 2017

Bottom line, after the slowest [year over year] core sales gain since March 2016 in June of 2.5 percent, they rose by 3.6 percent [year over year] in July which is about in line with the 5-year average of 3.3 percent. This pace though still remains well below the 5 percent plus growth rates in the two prior

Aug 11 2017 - Bull market

That was the first shaking of the tree. When you see these types of reversals it's a sign that investors are beginning to question valuations and fundamentals, and we all know the FANGs were the most overcrowded trade in this entire bull market, and that reached a pinnacle this

Aug 11 2017

Specifically since February, 2016, every time we got to major moving averages, we bounced. We'll try this time, but does it hold?feedback

Aug 11 2017

This goes back to June 9 when you had the first real outside day in the big cap names. They rallied back, but June 9 was the first shot across the bow. Now the FANG stocks are splintered. Amazon and Google [Alphabet] dropped out of the 'group think' with those

Aug 09 2017

Even if you get a hotter-than-expected PPI, it's not going to move the

Aug 09 2017

I'm paying more attention to what they say about the general health of spending rather than the online [shopping] impact on bricks and mortars, and hopefully we get some color on

Aug 09 2017

To me, the fall and late August is all about what the Fed does and what the [European Central Bank] ECB does. You have the potential for two major central banks that are pulling back. I think that is the biggest deal for markets. That is quantifiable in terms of psychology. Trying to game the North Korean situation is

Aug 08 2017

I think (liquefied natural gas) will be a major import for India and a potential big customer for the

Jul 26 2017

I don't think the debt ceiling is relevant to the Fed. The debt ceiling is getting raised. If the government gets shutdown, it will reopen. We've been down this road so many times. I don't hink this is going to matter. They're teeing you up for

Jul 26 2017

The FOMC statement is basically setting the stage for a September beginning to QT. While we've seen a slower rate of increase in the recent inflation stats, the Fed wasn't that bothered. After acknowledging that headline and core inflation are currently running below 2%, they said 'Inflation on a 12 month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2% in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2% objective over the medium

Jul 24 2017

There's no free lunch to have rates at zero for as long as they did and quintupling of of their balance sheet. Reversing that is not without a

Jul 24 2017

They've left themselves with very little flexibility to respond to any negativity. It's so easy to cut rates and print money. That's great, everyone has a party during that. Trying to determine when to take that away is always the most difficult

Jul 20 2017

Draghi is not really committing to anything but it seems that they are headed to a September announcement which they have to be because the current QE is expected to expire in December. We know that it will get extended but they need to at least tell the markets what their plan is with that into

Jul 19 2017

I think Draghi is aware of the sensitivity the markets have to whatever he says or does. I think the most we'll get from him is they'll no longer say, If we need to do more QE, we'll do more QE.' At the prior meeting, they took out, If we need to cut rates, we'll cut rates

Jul 19 2017

All the ECB officials are afraid of upsetting the market. They're going to to do their best to treat the markets with kid

Jul 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

The Goldilocks interpretation of today's Fed statement I think was a bit overdone. I don't know what the market interpreted as new. She said nothing new. It just shows you that the market is still obsessed with an easy Fed. As much as it has shrugged off the rate hike at the end of the year, they still like an an easy Fed. But she is still tightening the balance sheet. I think it's a much bigger

Jul 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

CPI core was above 2 percent for like 15 months in a row and the irony is the Fed never tightened through that. I think food prices all of a sudden could replace energy prices as an influence on headline

Jul 12 2017

Bottom line, it's clear that the rise in business confidence whether from small, medium or large businesses post-election has just not translated into a pick up in business activity as seen in the actual

Jul 05 2017

I think the Fed minutes make clear that assuming the data is around in line, they're intent on shrinking their balance sheet. We're going to get a form of tightening no matter what in September, whether it's a rate hike or quantitative

Jul 05 2017

There is no good time to reverse extreme

Jun 28 2017

This just proves how trapped they are that after just one speech and the market reaction that followed has the ECB already in a tizzy. What do they think will happen when further tapering actually takes place which we still expect to happen in September?feedback

Jun 22 2017

Now, if the economy remains steady and/or gets better, the Fed will keep on tightening and if the economy rolls over, then there is not much room between 1.5 percent growth and no growth and/or a

Jun 13 2017 - Trump administration

The bottom line continues to be that small businesses remain hopeful for positive policy changes out of the [Trump] Administration. Companies are still hiring but not really increasing investments in their business. On the former, a growing issue is the dearth of supply for qualified workers which we keep talking

Jun 09 2017 - UBS

We went parabolic. This is what happens when you go parabolic. The real test is what happens after the bounce. You know there will be dip buyers. If we fail and have a lower high, from a technical perspective, that tells you it could be something deeper than

Jun 09 2017 - Labour Party

What is possibly most distressing about the vote outcome is not just the difficulty Theresa May now has in governing, both Brexit and the country itself, it was the belief in the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and their party who might as well be Bernie Sanders' twin brother in his

Jun 07 2017

The so-called tinder is there to change things. Obviously, it's important if Comey says anything groundbreaking, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Of course, the U.K. is relevant depending on what happens with parliament. We think May will win. That's a wild card and it matters. Maybe more important to markets will be what Draghi

Jun 06 2017

If one is looking for a job, it's out there. It just may not be exactly what is wanted. Bottom line, the story remains the same in that the supply of labor is not meeting the

Jun 01 2017

It's the belief the Fed is going to raise rates, and it's a clear difference of opinion. The bond market knows more often than not the Fed tightening cycle leads to recession. That's what history shows. I'm not saying it's going there but people in the bond market know that's where it could

May 24 2017

If the House has to go back to the drawing board, some service providers may rally because they're afraid of losing

May 23 2017

There was a big drop in the number of sales for [newly built] homes priced above $500,000 to the lowest since November. There was no change month over month in the number of homes sold priced below $300,000, which is the area of the market that most needs more

May 09 2017 - Trump Presidency

The Vix we know tells us nothing about where markets go in the short term as it's just another short term indicator on the scoreboard. But at the same time it's easy to say that from this level the next 5 to 10-plus points are up, not down with just the question being when and how much the stock market falls in that move (assuming it does).feedback

May 07 2017 - French Election Results

We've been pricing in this thing for about two weeks now. Just look at Friday's trading action; we surged into the

May 03 2017

They're looking past the first quarter weakness. They are laying the ground work for a June rate hike in my

May 01 2017 - Trump Presidency

The Atlanta Fed estimate is just one of many but you at least have an idea of where they stand

Apr 28 2017

This brings the [year-over-year] gain to 2.4 percent which is the best in two years. Specifically, private sector wages and salaries were up by 2.6 percent [year over year] which matches a two-year high. Bottom line, the ever elusive evidence of rising wages might finally be peaking its head above

Apr 26 2017

This is just a starting point. We can assume it doesn't go to 15 percent. There's so many other crosscurrents to it. If they get a rate that's very low, what does it mean for interest rates? If it facilitates growth, rates go higher. The bond market is going to be a daily measure on this issue. I think they're certainly questioning that he's going to get anywhere close to what he wants. If he did, [the 10-year yield] would be close to 2.60 on the upper end of the range, not 2.30 on the bottom end of the

Apr 26 2017 - Trump Presidency

You can offset the benefits fo the tax gain through the higher cost of capital. So much debt has been accumulated in the corporate sector in the last 10 years, people can't look at the tax cut in a vacuum. The bond market is going to be the tell on what they are thinking Trump will be able to actually pass and what the growth influence is and the deficit it's going to

Apr 26 2017 - Trumpcare

If you have something permanent, you have to have it revenue neutral. This was just a starting point that Congress wanted the administration to lay out. Where health care is being debated within Congress, I think on the tax side people wanted Trump to create a starting

Apr 26 2017

I'll leave it to others to figure out if and how we get there (will obviously be tough) but the implications will have to also be measured by any change in interest rates in response in gauging the impact on corporate earnings and for other

Apr 20 2017 - French election 2017

We can actually celebrate a Fillon or a Macron victory because it would be a real change in complexion in terms of the business attitude in French

Apr 20 2017 - French election 2017

A couple weeks ago I would say she had no chance. It's a big deal. My guess is that over a multi-year period they'll have almost a parallel currency, and tell everybody over the next five years we're going to shift back to the French Franc. It's not something you can just rip a band-aid off because that would just be a

Apr 20 2017 - French election 2017

I'm still having my fingers crossed that it's Macron that will end up winning and cooler heads will

Apr 18 2017

The fundamental basis of banking, of taking deposits and lending them out, is slowing down, and I think that's going to be the bottom-line driver for the banking sector at least for the next couple of quarters. It's clear that the economy remains extremely mediocre, and now we're seeing signs of parts of the economy rolling over, particularly the auto sector, at the same time the Fed is raising interest

Apr 18 2017 - Front National

Marine Le Pen is certainly the real problem because she believes in fundamentally altering the state of the euro. Jean-Luc Melenchon would be a socialist/communist disaster for the French economy but what else is new? He is just a bit more economically extreme than

Apr 17 2017

That's exactly why the [stock] market rallied. People hate the border-adjustment tax, . At this point, it's either tax reform or

Apr 17 2017

It just adds to the hope and intrigue that something will happen, but that's what the market has been betting

Apr 13 2017

We want to hear from companies to what extent confidence is articulated or how much is being translated to real

Apr 13 2017

One of the reasons rates jumped [after the election] was optimism on faster growth driven by tax policy. We're taking away some of that excitement. We can't separate the Fed raising rates in a very slow economy. We have growth of less than 1 percent and the Fed is on a rate hiking

Apr 13 2017 - French economy

While people are shifting some risk, there's a general belief [former French Economy Minister Emmanuel] Macron is going to be the winner. The most important thing people should be focused on is are we going to get tax reform, and what the formulation is going to be. It's apparently not what people entered the year hoping for, and they should also pay attention to the fact that central banks around the world are taking away the punch

Apr 13 2017 - Japan

I'm a proponent of neither a strong nor weak currency but a stable one and believe that we should be careful here in hoping for a weak currency (or just not a strong one which I get) Mr. President. Just look at the experience of Japan where consumer spending remains punk and the weak currency hasn't led to any noticeable impact on export

Apr 12 2017

The market has known this for a while. He didn't say anything new. The question is how far along health care is, because depending on what they get done there, they'll know what kind of tax reform they can

Apr 10 2017 - Oil

At least right now, what I'm most interested in this week is hearing from the bank CEO's who report earnings on Thursday. Are companies tapping the capital markets instead of utilizing bank loans? Are companies just lessening their demand for credit because of already high leverage ratios?feedback

Apr 07 2017

As for stocks, that tax reform better come sooner rather than later, because anything that gets shifted into 2018 will just halt activity in

Apr 07 2017 - Unemployment

I want to make something very clear, we are late cycle in this economic expansion and with the unemployment rate now down to 8.9 percent all in and 4.5 percent in the widely followed U3, it is tougher and tougher to find good employees and thus it is the supply side of the equation that is the likely reason for this jobs miss relative to expectations. That said, economic growth is likely to be only about 1 percent this quarter and with weak productivity as almost 180,000 jobs per month is not adding much in terms of

Apr 06 2017 - Bear market

I have a bridge to sell you if you think a rate hike cycle combined with a shrinking balance sheet will go smoothly. If the exit process ends up turning messy – defined as a recession and bear market in stocks – was all this easing worth it? Be bullish if you think both news stories will turn out just fine. Be very worried if they don'

Apr 06 2017

Nothing new was revealed in the minutes, especially after hearing from a slew of Fed members over the past few weeks but maybe market participants need to get slapped a few times before they pay attention. I'll say again, I have a bridge to sell you if you think a rate hike cycle combined with a shrinking balance sheet will go

Apr 06 2017

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, but just wanted you not to get too carried

Apr 04 2017

I do expect some moderation in that

Apr 03 2017

Ideally, that's how you gain wages. Earnings are only growing around 2

Mar 30 2017

Even at 1.7 percent (core), they can check off some of that [inflation] box. They're pretty much there when you reach your mandate of 2 percent inflation, which is a made up number. The Fed is essentially meeting their internal mandate. They should be at a 3 percent [fed funds rate] today. It just tells you they dragged their feet … They find themselves way behind where they should

Mar 30 2017

It's surely a game of semantics. Core CPI has been above 2 percent for 15 straight months, and you'll have people like [Chicago Fed President Charles] Evans saying they're not at their

Mar 30 2017 - Oil

Bottom line, this is old news as we are two days away from finishing Q1 but at least we see from what base we are moving

Mar 29 2017

This will be the first year in this cycle that all four major central banks are pulling back in some form with their

Mar 27 2017 - Affordable Care Act

I am really disappointed that the ACA is not going to change for the better (for now) and am really [mad] that tax reform now may get all chopped up with potentially only modest

Mar 22 2017

It's just a matter of

Mar 21 2017 - UBS

But if they pass it, the market could

Mar 21 2017

Now people are beginning to realize there's potentially other

Mar 21 2017

That's in the context of a market that was priced for the ultimate

Mar 17 2017

Washington has been such an important driver of the rally since the election, so every week is important in terms of what is new on health care and what's new on tax reform. We're sort of in this information vacuum where the quarter is ending and you're a few weeks away from getting corporate earnings. The Fed is out of the way, the inflation data is out of the way. It's information no man's

Mar 17 2017

The interesting thing is a month ago nobody expected them to raise in March. The market's still in that everything is good

Mar 17 2017

It's expiration so there's a lot of noise related to

Mar 15 2017 - Japan

Even though the dot plot is not relevant because so much can change, the Fed reminded us all of the gradual nature of their expected behavior on this rate hike

Mar 14 2017

Bond yields could move in the morning if the CPI is hotter than expected like PPI

Mar 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

If you let the balance sheet start to run off, you'd see a rise in long-term interest rates. You'd have gotten an immediate steepening of the yield curve. The Fed did it somewhat

Mar 14 2017 - Obamacare

The CBO review of the Obamacare repeal and replace [is] just adding to uncertainty about the timing of any legislation. If that gets delayed, then tax reform gets

Mar 08 2017

As for the Fed, one of their biggest fears was waiting too long to hike rates which would then force them to quicken the pace in order to play catch up. Unfortunately their biggest fear is now coming to

Mar 03 2017

She is defending the turf of the FOMC. …Assuming they hike in March, gradual will likely be defined as three times per year. Not surprisingly I think they are so far behind the curve that none of them would make my son's little league

Mar 01 2017

I disagree with those who think the Fed doesn't matter anymore in terms of their influence in the context of a debt to GDP ratio that has never been higher and market valuations that are historically very rich. Changes in fiscal policy are welcome for the economy but I lean towards monetary policy in being more impactful on markets in the shorter term time

Feb 27 2017

I think the market is set up for disappointment. I don't think we're going to get details. It doesn't mean we won't get them in a few weeks. We've had this extraordinarily high bar for tax cuts that the market wants to hear about. The only reason we rallied 10 percent is hopes on tax cuts, and we'll get them. It's just a matter of … what degree. You reach a point where it's 'let's see the

Feb 27 2017

This is what the Fed wanted. Now, the Fed may not raise, but they wanted at least the flexibility to do it. I've been describing this year as an unfolding tug of war between the tail wind of hoped-for tax and regulatory relief against the headwind of a tightening Fed and ECB and BOJ. Global central banks, in my opinion, have reached peak easing, and this year we are going to see a pullback from that. I think that really

Feb 17 2017 - Walmart

It'll be all about Washington and this tax reform, and that's what's been driving things for awhile. They have to come up with a plan B or this market is going to

Feb 17 2017

The Senate is going to be a lot more resistant to it. I think bottom line is the market is making it seem like there are only winners from tax reform. But with the border adjusted tax, there are going to be winners and losers. They have to come up with a plan B or this market is going to

Feb 17 2017

We still don't know because Trump hasn't said what he wants. [Steve] Bannon is for it and Gary Cohn is against it. I think the administration is probably trying to come up with a plan A and a plan

Feb 17 2017

This is not a pullback. This is just a rest. I think that people want to hear what [Trump's] going to say about taxes. The rubber is meeting the road now on tax reform. Either it's happening or not. Paul Ryan today reported he's fully behind his tax plan, which includes the border-adjustment tax. The pushback is getting intense, and the lobbying is getting intense. I think people are realizing that without border-adjusted tax, there's no tax

Feb 16 2017

The ebullience speaks for itself as manufacturers will be a main beneficiary of any corporate tax changes. This joins a slew of euphoric sentiment indicators that we've seen for months but the actual rate of economic growth right now for Q1 is still estimated to be around the same 2% we've been stuck

Feb 16 2017

They've trained the markets not to believe when they're going to raise rates. If the total tax package happens, ... earnings [go] up like 6, 7 percent. The stock market's rallied about 9 percent, so we pretty much priced in the expected earnings growth rate. What I don't think we've priced in is the offset of what happens with interest rates. It's this tug of war between fiscal stimulus and monetary

Feb 16 2017

This index has now given back 4 of the 6 pt post election jump over the past two months but still remains well above the breakeven of

Feb 14 2017

Whether the Ryan plan passes with the border adjusted tax is highly controversial. ... The Senate is going to be a lot more resistant to

Feb 13 2017 - Federal Reserve

We're increasing the probability of rate hikes. The ECB is cutting [quantitative easing] QE this year, the Bank of England is going to end QE this year and possibly raise rates. You have the Bank of Japan getting tested every night in their yield curve control experiment. I think that central banks don't matter is

Feb 13 2017 - Federal Reserve

The market's thinking central banks aren't going to matter this year. I don't see that as

Feb 10 2017

The rally yesterday in stocks after Trump said he will unveil a 'phenomenal' tax plan made sense because we wanted to see him focus on what was most important and not get distracted by other noise and tweets. There remains though the issue of what will be

Feb 09 2017

It's been a Trump Kool-Aid rally since Nov. 8 on the hopes of tax cuts. Now we'll see what he's going to do. If all he's going to do is back the Ryan plan, he's been behind that already. We're going to see a cut in the corporate tax rate. It's just a matter at what level and to what extent we've priced it in. Earnings should go up 5 to 10 percent if there's tax reform. We sort of priced in the expected improvement in earnings from that tax

Feb 09 2017

The extreme sentiment is more of a headwind to further gains, rather than we could head

Feb 09 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think ideally, [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen, in her models, wants to raise three times for the next three years and get to her magic 3 percent. They said they're not even going to raise once until June. I think she is going to be a little more hawkish next week. I think she wants to give herself flexibility that March is a real possibility. [And] I think the market is not set up for

Feb 07 2017

I think there are general concerns with what's going on with Europe. We're seeing weakness just generally in European bonds. Now there's questions about when we're going to get the full effect of (U.S.) tax reform. While they wanted it in 2017, we might not get it until 2018. The problem with the delay in tax reform is it will have a direct impact on the economy. Decisions on spending will be put off. The strength of Treasurys of late coincides with the strength in

Feb 07 2017 - Federal Reserve

Regardless of what Harker thinks we know that it really only matters what Yellen, Fischer and Dudley think. As its clear that the Fed only likes to raise rates on days where there is a press conference and they are scheduled for 4 this year at the same time they want to hike 3 times, they better get moving then. We still are calling for a March hike but the fed funds futures market barely blinked after

Feb 03 2017

The Fed funds rate should not be where it is. It is way too low relative to the state of the economy. It is way too low relative to the potential fiscal stimulus we're going to get. The Fed is just playing this fearful game that somehow they are going to muck everything up if they happen to raise more than three times this

Feb 03 2017

I'm as excited as anybody in having lower taxes and in easing regulatory burden. But I think the tax reform is a lot more complicated and I think we need to see how this unfolds over the next few months. So we'll have this tug of war between tightening of monetary policy and higher interest rates on one side and the optimism about fiscal relief on the other

Feb 02 2017

They've not changed their official response at all since the election, acting almost like it never happened. They believe that .625 percent is the right rate for an economy that has essentially met their stated mandates, eight years into a

Feb 01 2017

I don't recall ever seeing such a discrepancy between print and estimate in this survey but ADP is saying there was seasonal issues with retail and moderate weather helped too. They believe the pace should still remain at about 175k per

Jan 31 2017

Wage growth in the aggregate remains only decent. We continue to wait for the wage/salary acceleration and the hope is that it comes when friendlier fiscal policy kicks in, and a pick up in economic growth

Jan 30 2017

The weekend's news is important, but is very difficult to quantify its economic

Jan 30 2017 - Protectionism

If this becomes embedded, this has economic implications. Will technology companies get the best people? Will overseas countries respond in kind? Will it affect business? It's all part of the same U.S.-centric protectionism. I get the security issues, but it is still part of the mentality: 'Everyone is stealing our business. Every one is out to kill us, and we're going to close our

Jan 27 2017

The year ends on a mediocre fashion but policy is about to change. Positively on the fiscal side and a drag on the monetary side (so we can consider Q4 data old news but it does set the stage and baseline for 2017).feedback

Jan 25 2017

People should be deepening their analysis of what's to come rather than just chase price. The market is still in its honeymoon phase. I don't know. I still think the market is going to end the year more determined by interest rates rather than Trump fiscal policy. I think if the stock market is right in their optimism on U.S. growth, there's no way interest rates aren't going

Jan 24 2017

I continuously say that the industry and the first-time buyer need more homes priced below $250,000, but the high costs of lots, labor and regulations puts tight margins on this price point. In coming months we'll watch to see what influence the rise in rates

Jan 20 2017

The only reason we were up before was the optimism ahead of the

Jan 20 2017

I think we're back in this chop-fest that we've been in since December. Now that he's president, people want to see details. They want to see details of tax policies. The rhetoric now has to turn into realty. It all begins now. This is the same market we've had for six weeks now. The trump rally essentially ended in the middle of

Jan 20 2017

But he did emphasize America first, American jobs, and that's not a free trade mentality, and it sounds protectionist. We knew that was his

Jan 20 2017

He sounded protectionist and 'America first' … Everybody knows that's part of this … This is not a state of the union where people are going to get policy-type discussions. A speech like this is supposed to sound broad. I don't think there should have been any expectation of

Jan 20 2017

I keep wondering what the multiple should be. Should we still trade 17-18 times earnings now that we have a potentially protectionist president, and we have rising rates? The Fed is raising rates. This is a different moment now, and we're not sure what we're going to get. We had a powerful rally that priced in a lot of

Jan 19 2017 - Federal Reserve

As seen in the US treasury market response to a still dovish Janet Yellen and the rise in rates after her speech, the same thing is happening in longer term bonds in Europe after the very dovish commentary from Mario

Jan 17 2017

The reality is that Trump is where people are now going to start deepening their analysis, and they're realizing there's no free tax cuts. This now impacts what he can potentially

Jan 17 2017

There's no question but the inflation numbers are very important because you're seeing a global rise. You saw UK CPI coming in higher than expected. This is a global phenomenon of rising inflation. It does hamstring central

Jan 17 2017

This stuff may not lead to actual tariffs, but just verbalizing it, you could freeze decisionmaking. It may not be an actual tariff, but if it starts influencing business decision, it may work to a similar extent. The reality is people were looking at this with rose-colored

Jan 12 2017

Bullishness [in the dollar] got way too

Jan 06 2017

Treasuries sold off after the number because I think they are honing in on the better private sector upward revision to October and November which offset the December

Jan 05 2017

Bottom line, as stated, job growth continues to slow as is typical in an aged recovery. While there are still plenty of able bodied workers on the sidelines, for those realistically looking for work, it's getting tougher and tougher to find the right, qualified (and motivated person).feedback

Dec 21 2016

Spanish banks have made provisions for what they would have to pay in the event of a negative outcome but with the stocks lower anyway, apparently by not enough. Spanish banks tried to protect themselves from [negative interest rate policy] and now will get penalized for

Dec 16 2016

Let's add this figure to the list of [surveys] asking businesses whether things are better, the same or worse that are embracing the possibilities of Trumponomics. Thus, they measure the direction of change, not the degree. I'm optimistic too, but reality now needs to meet the very high

Dec 15 2016 - Federal Reserve

I'm waiting for the Trump tweet complaining about the strong

Dec 15 2016

Unfortunately, the Fed is in a no-win situation, because if they continue to go gradually in raising interest rates, even if they raise three times, if that's not enough relative to where inflation and growth is going, then the bond market's going to do it for

Dec 15 2016

I'm happy that hopefully growth can be driven more by the private sector and not monetary policy and

Dec 15 2016

And if they get too aggressive in raising interest rates, which we need to get ... over with anyway, well, then they risk putting us into recession and tweets from Donald

Dec 14 2016

This is out of control, as this is happening at the same time their growth rate is in secular

Dec 14 2016

It is quite amazing how the stock market went from loving slow growth, QE and no rate hikes over the past 7 years and has now transitioned that love to the hopes for quicker growth, no QE and rising interest rates. The $64k question in coming years is when higher rates will matter for equity valuations that have only been seen in 1929 and 2000 in many

Dec 13 2016

A new political regime took hold on November 8th and tomorrow we'll see if there is any acknowledgement of that from the FOMC and whether we're about to embark on a new monetary regime. I would define 'new monetary regime' as anything more aggressive than the pace of one rate hike per

Dec 09 2016

The Trump enthusiasm continues as the UoM consumer confidence index rose to 98 from 93.8 in November. With the rise in optimism, we'll soon see to what extent this translates into a change in economic

Dec 08 2016

Bottom line, the story remains the same in that the pace of firing's remains

Dec 07 2016

It's one gigantic Trump-inspired performance chase right

Dec 07 2016

Bonds are consolidating a recent sell-off. If [the 10-year Treasury] yields renew their recent rise, 2.5, 2.75, people have to wonder what that means for

Dec 02 2016

WTF are so many of them doing?feedback

Dec 02 2016

No one wants to say, I want to get fired and sit on my butt.' But when people do lose their jobs, they're not being incentivized enough to go back to work compared to the benefits they get by not being at

Nov 29 2016

Certainly a lot of this rally is hopes and wishes, and you came very far, very fast. I continue to argue this dramatic rise in interest rates that happened coincidentally with the rise in stocks should not be

Nov 29 2016

We'll see. If there's no deal and oil is pressured, it could make this controlled pull back a bit more

Nov 25 2016

This also comes coincident with extreme overbought

Nov 25 2016 - Bull market

As long as the overall economic picture continues to improve, this seven-year bull market can make it into year

Nov 15 2016

You can argue it's already affected the FANG stocks from a valuation standpoint. It's a process more than an

Nov 15 2016

If you look at small companies, the high-yield market right now and the sell-off that it's experienced over the past week, obviously coincident with selling in investment grade and U.S. Treasurys is the rise in the cost of

Nov 15 2016

And either yields are going to calm down, and bonds will bounce back, or this 11 percent rally in six trading days in the Russell is going to reverse

Nov 15 2016

And while I understand the enthusiasm for small cap stocks, because they're less sensitive to dollar strength, the index is populated with a lot of biotech and financials that have participated a lot over the past

Nov 15 2016 - Starbucks

There was little sign in this data of consumer hesitancy ahead of the election that some retailers have blamed (Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts in particular but restaurant/bar sales did fall) for soft October

Nov 11 2016

I'm optimistic that the regulatory noose around the economy is going to loosen up. It'll be bullish with lower taxes. The problem that Trump faces is that we have an unwinding of a tremendous bubble. This is the biggest bubble we've ever had that is now

Nov 11 2016

The July lows in global interest rates we may never see again in our lifetime. We have to deal with the consequences of that shift higher in interest rates because the Fed and other central banks have created an economic construct and an asset-priced construct based on very low interest rates, so there has to be an

Nov 10 2016 - Netflix

These are expensive stocks that don't like higher interest rates. These have been the leaders and the leaders are getting whacked…the FANG (Facebook,, Netflix, Alphabet) are expensive stocks that don't like higher interest rates because higher interest rates expose things that are

Nov 10 2016

I've been arguing for a while now not to ignore the supply cuts that have been going on for the past

Nov 09 2016

The question is how do equity prices respond to the rise in interest rates when the last five years they've been medicated on low interest rates?feedback

Nov 09 2016

Then you throw on potentially a big fiscal package, rising debts and

Nov 09 2016

This brings a problem. If in 2017 she starts raising rates because the market is forcing her, that's much different than her raising rates on her own volition, and that's a different outcome in terms of their

Nov 08 2016

The big picture with gold is not who the next president is. It's where the dollar goes, and it's monetary policy, not just here but

Nov 07 2016

Hillary wins, good for stocks. Trump wins, bad for stocks. But, anyone who thinks deeper than this knows that the response is going to be much more nuanced. Ask any owner of a healthcare, financial or defense

Nov 04 2016

What happens Monday and Tuesday, who knows? There's this general feeling that on Wednesday, people think it's binary. Trump wins, the market goes down. Hillary wins, the market goes up. It's more nuanced than that. If Hillary wins, and Democrats take the Senate, if you own health care or financial stocks, you're not going to be happy that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are running the

Nov 04 2016

We should all hope the winner, no matter who it is, is clear cut. We don't want to hear about whining losers. We want to elect the person and move

Nov 01 2016 - Bull market

Putting aside their personalities and policy proposals, it will likely not matter who the next president is when it comes to where markets go. As we are in the second-longest bull market of all time, and as we approach the eighth year of this economic expansion, odds are high that whoever the next president is, they will preside over a recession, a bear market and rising debts and

Oct 28 2016

The 4 quarter average growth run rate is now exactly at 1.5% and Q3 was saved by a big boost in exports and agricultural exports within that. Personal spending is at a 2.5% average run rate over the past 4 quarters while capital spending remains

Oct 26 2016

We can continue to analyze earnings and the economic fundamentals every which way to try to figure out where stocks go but let's be honest, it's all about where rates go in the monetary world we live

Oct 25 2016

Bottom line, a [two-year] note yield approaching a 4-month high didn't bring out the buyers. Yes, the Fed seems very intent on raising rates in December as they seem to be looking for every reason to do so and maybe that explains some of the

Oct 24 2016 - British Petroleum

On the better than expected print as people believe this will spill over into the ISM report in a few weeks, the 10 yr yield is back at 1.75% after trading at 1.73% prior to the release. The 2 yr yield is up by 1 bp to

Oct 14 2016

Core sales grew by just 2.5% y/o/y, the slowest pace of gain since November 2015. We know the consumer is the only thing keeping the US economy out of recession and we will likely get a trimming to Q3 GDP estimates today on the core retail sales

Oct 14 2016

He "would love deflation. It would raise the purchasing power of my money [and] it would lower my cost of

Oct 14 2016 - Federal Reserve

The minutes told us nothing. We came out of the last meeting and, in the press conference, Yellen said the case for a rate hike had strengthened. Nothing seems to have changed that based on a lot of the speeches. We know it was a close call based on three dissenters, and the minutes basically confirmed

Oct 14 2016

We have a Fed president, albeit nonvoting, who is saying essentially, Let's wait to see who the next president will be before we hike, because they may have certain economic policies initiated that we may need to respond to or maybe not, but let's wait

Oct 14 2016

Economic growth is falling to 1.5 percent. The Atlanta Fed, two months ago, was predicting 3.8 percent growth. Now, they're predicting 2.1 percent growth. Under those scenarios, the Fed should actually be cutting interest rates. They're really stuck

Oct 14 2016 - Unemployment

The unemployment rate is at 5 percent and inflation is now rising, so based on that, they should be raising interest

Oct 13 2016

China macro has taken a back seat of late but data such as this should highlight again the mediocre state of global economic

Oct 11 2016

Today's the first day where people said, Wow, what happens if the Republicans lose Congress? I think it's still a far-fetched possibility. There's no question if Hillary wins that Paul Ryan will get all the support he needs from Republicans. As long as they can keep the House, they can block anything Hillary wants to

Oct 11 2016

I really think this rise in rates, because it's happening not because the data has gotten better, has really thrown a wrench into things. If rates were rising because the economy is getting better, I would say that's

Oct 11 2016

If they raise in November or December, the market's going to have another hissy

Oct 11 2016

Yellen's in a tough spot. She's probably glad she's got a month to think about it. If they don't raise in November, that could be considered political. What are they waiting for if they are so convinced it's time to raise?feedback

Sep 30 2016

Wage growth is still mediocre, spending is as well as healthcare takes up a larger portion of a households budget (along with rent for those that do). As for inflation, expect headline prints to continue to rise in coming quarters with the stabilization in oil prices on top of sticky services

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

The Fed's running the economy. How can you not discuss the Fed? … It's a tough situation, but the Fed has immersed themselves so deeply in the economy so that any honest discussion of it has to include the Fed. They threatened their own independence by going as far overboard as they have. These institutions were never built to take on these

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

The problem is if he wins, he's opened up this Pandora's box. At every single Fed meeting, he's going to be asked, What do you think about what the Fed did? What do you think about Yellen's job?' I don't think that's where you want to

Sep 26 2016

I think it gets to the larger picture of the destruction of the profitability and economics of banking in this modern-day regulatory and central bank world we're

Sep 26 2016

It is a tax on capital. Every day, [negative rates] are bleeding the European

Sep 21 2016 - Federal Reserve

I believe Lael Brainard's dovish speech a week ago Monday clinched no rate hike today as one has to go back to Wayne Angell's tenure in the early 1990's to have a rate hike with a Federal Reserve Governor dissenting. If Lael agrees to a rate hike today after what she said last Monday would be quite an about face and an embarrassing one. We'll get an updated dot plot today but that has been rendered worthless

Sep 20 2016

Whatever the BoJ chooses to do all eyes are on the reaction of the bank stocks in what will be most likely an attempt to steepen the yield curve. It took a 50% decline in the Topix bank stock index from the June 2015 high to the July 2016 low that alarmed many that as much as a central banker wants 2% inflation, destroying your banking system in order to get there is a really stupid

Sep 19 2016 - Japan

Our largest holder, China, was a net seller of $21 billion of notes and bonds after selling $28 billion worth in June. They, of course, are slowly bleeding reserves. Japan our second-largest holder was a net buyer of $3.6 billion after selling $13.2 billion in

Sep 19 2016 - Japan

In terms of the size of their economy, no one is doing it like Japan is. Their balance sheet is going to be two-thirds the size of their

Sep 19 2016

This is the fragility beginning to rise in Treasurys and global sovereign bonds. We've all been trading together. It's been one big sovereign bond trade

Sep 19 2016

This level of selling is

Sep 19 2016

Bottom line, a major crutch for the U.S. Treasury market over the past decade of foreign central bank reserve accumulation has gone away for now. Foreign flows were a big part of Treasury bond buying. Take that away and central banks take away the stimulus that was affecting long-term interest rates. Deficits are expected to head higher. This is a process that takes time to see these things play

Sep 19 2016

There's a global recognition that you need a healthy banking system to have a strong

Sep 09 2016

The only reason why we're at these (stock market) levels is because of low interest rates and central bank policy. ... When the Fed removes accommodation, things are seen for what they really are, not for what people want them to

Sep 09 2016

I find it unusual that she would put together a speech just days before they go into a quiet period before the

Sep 07 2016

The economic data certainly doesn't call for a rate hike but the fed funds rate should never have been this low in the 7th year of an economic

Sep 06 2016

Looking at the flow of the data over the past few months, it is easy to argue that a rate hike now doesn't make much sense. However, why are short-term interest rates now about where they were during the Great Depression in the early 1930s as we approach year eight of this economic expansion?feedback

Aug 25 2016 - Federal Reserve

Yellen's speech has held the markets prisoner. They can't go anywhere. They're in this little tiny space with bars around them, and they can't move until she

Aug 24 2016

The politician is only focused on the very short term. They're only focused on the next election. Whatever excess and buildup and inefficiencies that build up over time, well that's left for somebody else. There is no

Aug 24 2016

Being on constant Fed Watch has become so exhausting. We've been led in so many different directions only to be spun around again that until I see exactly what they do, I'm losing patience in listening to what they

Aug 23 2016

New home sales are still about 8 percent below the 25-year average, so everything has to be put into perspective. [Wednesday's] number is somewhat old news in that it's measuring contracts that were signed months ago. New home sales is more timely. I put more stake into [Tuesday's]

Aug 17 2016

Single family starts of 770,000 is about exactly where the year to date average is, 25 percent below the 25 year average and 58 percent below the 2006 peak. Yes, we continue to be in a housing recovery but let's put it into

Aug 05 2016

Rate hike odds by year-end shifted from 32 percent to 40 percent after the jobs number. For September it went from 18 percent to 22 percent. I believe these modest expectations notwithstanding, (Friday's) data continues to point to the quote I took from a friend in referring to the Fed as the Boy Who Cried Rate

Aug 01 2016

A few years ago, I used the word 'beer goggles' – that QE and low rates clouded investor attitudes towards asset prices and everything looked

Jul 29 2016

The U.S. consumer is the only thing keeping the U.S. economy out of a recession and we've heard just this week the worries over auto sales and weakness for restaurants. I'm not calling for a recession, but will zero to slightly negative growth feel much different than 1 percent growth?feedback

Jul 28 2016

It's always backward-looking, so we have to understand that. Let's say the Atlanta Fed is right. Then we're looking at first half growth of 1.5

Jul 28 2016 - Ford

If Ford is right and auto sales are slowing, I don't know what the catalysts are for that second half recovery. Growth is really challenged around the

Jul 11 2016

We get bombarded with Fed speak this week just as the fed funds futures market is saying the Fed won't definitively raise rates again until December 2018. The last Fed dots had the expected fed funds rate at 2.4% by the end of 2018 vs 3% seen in March. The disconnect and disbelief

Jul 08 2016

Earnings could tell a big story. I'm not exactly clear on what it's trading on right now. I'm not exactly clear with the fundamental story. … Everyone's just chasing price

Jul 05 2016

This data was pre-Brexit. We can assume if the global economy's going to slow post-vote, we can see how it was

Jun 24 2016

They're going to adjust to this. I see this for the U.K. a gigantic inconvenience. Deals will get renegotiated, life will move on. The question is obviously for the rest of the European Union, but the U.K. will deal with the EU just as we do, just as Norway does, just as Switzerland

Jun 21 2016

Honestly, all these polls are dizzying. I think the market just wants to get this vote over at this point. Stocks will probably breathe an initial sigh of relief after the vote while questions around global growth challenges

Jun 10 2016

It's going to handcuff people until that vote comes out. It's a binary event. It's in the context of a global market where everybody is worried about growth

Jun 07 2016 - Bear market

There is no smooth way out of this monetary cycle. We either get the rate adjustment out of the way now or stay on the path that is Japan. I'm for the former even though the odds of both a recession and a bear market are the likely outcomes in the short

May 17 2016

With respect to single family, the stair step recovery continues, but oh man is there still a ways to go. Starts would have to rise by 33 percent just to get back to the 30-year

Apr 08 2016

Certainly yesterday we traded with the yen strengthening and today we're doing it

Apr 07 2016

To me, this is a really dangerous game the markets are playing. I think what the Bank of Japan did backfired and I think people are realizing we reached limits with the Bank of Japan and the ECB [European Central Bank] and maybe there's nothing left for them to do if this is the response they're going to

Apr 07 2016

Certainly the dollar weakness has relieved some stress on multinationals. It's like the flavor of the day. In 2013 and 2014, the market loved the weak yen. Now all of a sudden, they love the strong yen and that's the same case with the stronger euro. The weaker dollar – all it's doing is releasing a pressure point markets were worried

Mar 21 2016

They're non-voting so the market takes (it with) a grain of salt, but maybe this is the beginning of an attempt to set up the market for an April or June rate hike. The data set them up for a March hike. The communication did

Mar 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

It is safe to say that after yesterday's FOMC statement, the Yellen press conference and what was said in them, the communication and structural strategy of 'data dependency' has been officially neutered. The Fed's goal is now a perfect world. As we of course will never get there, the rest of us are left flying blind as to what to expect from monetary

Mar 12 2016

Market multiples will go down as people lose faith in central bank influence. People should see central banks are out of bullets in terms of their influence. You put that on top of earnings growth that is slowing

Mar 12 2016 - Bear market

To me we just saw a bear market rally over the past month. Very likely the Fed and Bank of Japan next week caps the end of that bear market rally. Central banks are really the most important thing in terms of their

Mar 09 2016 - Bear market

I think what we've seen over the past month is a bear market rally and what we hear from central bankers over the next week could mark the end of

Feb 22 2016

Any time we get a stable night in China, (that) leads to calmness in Europe, and calmness in those two markets helps

Feb 18 2016 - Snapchat

The question is, can we get enough lift to push above 1,940 (on the S&P 500) and if we can, we can have a shot at that 1,970 - 2,000 level. You're going to really need buyers to come into the market. ... Short covering can only take us so

Feb 18 2016 - Snapchat

We had a nice move here. The market is now overbought for the first time in a

Feb 10 2016 - Federal Reserve

Bottom line on Yellen's testimony, of the 3 possible options I laid out in my morning note, I believe the Janet Yellen testimony fell into Door Number 2, the non committal one. I say this because she acknowledged all the risks to the downside and positives on the upside to the outlook without leaning in any one direction, thus leaving us with a 'let's play it by ear', middle of the road

Feb 01 2016

I don't read too much into it. There's a lot of data this week. What I do read into it is the Fed's going to have quite a fight in wanting to raise interest rates again this

Jan 26 2016

I think markets are maybe betting and hoping there will be dovish commentary from the Fed tomorrow. .. If they acknowledge the tightening of the financial conditions and softening in growth people will take them as acknowledging four hikes are off the

Jan 15 2016

Obviously it started with growth concerns overseas and now we're (hitting) ourselves with the same growth concerns as retail sales were weak and Empire manufacturing that

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