Last quote by Quincy Krosby
Quincy Krosby quotes
When he said the words 'phenomenal tax plan, that gave hope to the market that we were going to get a tax plan sooner. He basically spurred the market, saying he hasn't forgotten about tax reform. That issue was at the core of the market's embrace of Trump's agenda, along with deregulation. But who was in the market yesterday? Trading volume was low, and it was algorithms that were triggered immediately, lifting the market.
When you have an economy that is so dependent on consumer, wages are very important. Had wages moved [further] higher, the 10-year yield have moved above 2.5 percent.
The market is going to question whether or not he is going to be able to stay on the very pro-growth, pro-business agenda that the market embraced. If there is deviation from that, yes, the market will have difficulties.
The market looks ahead. But if it looks ahead and sees trouble brewing to get things done, the market is going to perhaps stall until it gets what it wants.
In and of itself, it is just a number. But what it does is it lifts market expectations, in essence, to continue moving higher.
The market is still embracing the Trump agenda, based on the market's reaction to the speech. Now the question the market has is, specifically, what does all of that mean in terms of trade?
One could say that perhaps central banks have actually underpinned the performance of passive funds. But if you have the European Central Bank, if you have the Bank of Japan beginning an exit from easy money, tightening liquidity, that also introduces more volatility.
And anything that deviates from that is going to account for a pullback.
If the pattern is something we've seen before, the market is going to look right through it.
As we go deeper into the week, the volume will continue to fall off. That's important because any strong headline can skew the market in one direction or another.
Going into this, there were so many questions about what could the Fed say that could be a road block to Dow 20,000. I guess the Fed was more hawkish than the market had wanted even though Janet Yellen at the press conference basically said we're data dependent, and we don't know what the future holds in terms of stimulus and tax cuts.
She said the economy was resilient and she was much more positive than she has been. She used the word gradual a couple of times. The market was hoping she'd use that word more. This was one where the market in a sense was already moving toward a pullback.
It's clear the market is willing to give President-elect Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt right now.
If they believe that inflation is going to march higher and more rapidly ... That would give the market reason to pause.
These are tools that are being incorporated by candidates. Whether they're young or old, they're getting their message out. The market's job is to look through these things and get used to it, and the market gets bored with the same thing, so unless the tweets are really specific, and the tweets have major policy implications embedded in them, the markets will move on.
If you have an economy that's being reflated but productivity hasn't picked up, then all of the stimulus that comes from the fiscal side is negated by rates moving higher. What you want to see is real growth. You want to see productivity picking up, because that's the basis of growth.
You are going to see profit-taking. We are watching whether or not there is going to be buying on the dip, particularly in financials and industrials, that then would suggest a secular move as opposed to a post-election one-off.
The rally may be abating a bit. When you move up that quickly, you tend to slow down a bit.
It's basically he believes in stronger preparation. It's strength equals preparedness.
You have to wonder. Despite the fact that the economic data has been decidedly mixed, she has been telegraphing a rate hike. You have to ask whether she wants a rate hike for a different reason.
What assets are they going to buy? Remember, it's a much more shallow market for QE there than it is here.
I think the market needs to get assurance from Corporate America. They want to know that things are getting better. This is still a market that's trying to figure out whether it wants to break higher or lower.
You have a market that is trying to decipher where the economy is headed, what companies are telling us and what the Fed is poised to do come December.
We remain where we were: a market still betting Chair (Janet) Yellen wants a hike in December.
Still, the dovish case was made forcefully in the minutes, as was the hawkish case. We remain where we were: a market still betting Chair Yellen wants a hike in December. Mark your calendar for December 13-14 to see if Yellen sticks to the message she's been telegraphing since Jackson Hole.
But with the Fed inching toward a rate hike in December, for the market to keep moving higher you really do have to have earnings that are commensurate with valuation, and you need to see growth.
Specifically, tomorrow I want to see how Deutsche Bank performs.
There's a premium on data at this time because the data recently has been slipping.
I think the market was expecting a more hawkish hold and instead it got a mildly hawkish hold. And you could argue the (stock) market was satisfied that you didn't see a Fed anxious to raise rates dramatically.
Janet Yellen doesn't want to say anything that'at would derail the housing recovery.
There's more expectation that the Fed will hold, but it will be a more hawkish hold.
If we hear a hawkish tone, in essence getting the market ready for December, the market can absorb that as long as you have the (strong economic) data underpinning.
She resurrected some of the concerns for why the Fed shouldn't raise rates.
Lockhart helped assuage fears that a rate hike in September was imminent.
When a market is quiet, it's susceptible to rumors, whether we're talking about a path to freeze oil production or whether the Fed is going to raise rates in September. This may be a market that has too much time on its hands right now.
She did put the market on notice that she'd like to raise rates, which means the payrolls data out on Friday is very important. The wage component, length of the workweek and types of jobs, all are crucial in order to extrapolate to inflation.
Financials are enjoying the prospect of a rate hike in the coming months, but so are utilities moving on the prospect that rates won't be lifted at the September Fed meeting. Gold is moving higher as well, again signaling that while rates may be lifted it's not a September story.
Low volume is fairly standard at this time of the year and August tends to be a very choppy month. If you have low volumes, it could skew the market in any direction, and that's what you have today.
The market today has more breadth … and now the market again is stronger in terms of the internals.
We've moved into the new frontier of monetary policy. Thus far it doesn't look successful, because they have to keep pushing. It has the air of desperation.
Given the role of the Fed and its global positioning with regard to the dollar, can it be the one central bank that starts to raise rates? It's highly unlikely, given their focus on keeping the U.S. dollar in a range.
I think it really is that the market has done well. It pulled back and there's more and more talk of a potential Fed rate hike.
Once they mentioned Europe, that was a positive. So many investors and strategists still see Europe as without any demand whatsoever. That was a positive that there is a pickup in demand, not only in the U.S. but in Europe. That's the kind of thing the market wants to hear.
We always like to say the market needs to digest its gains, and we've been due for a bit of a pullback. I think the market is on hold waiting to see what that Fed statement is going to say.
What this report does is it assuages fears about the economy losing momentum. That's been weighing on the minds of investors.
The question for the market right now is how much of that is a flight to safety, a flight to safety just to gain yield or just worries about economic growth.
Brexit is going to dominate the market if it looks as if they are going to leave. If it looks like they're going to stay, Yellen will dominate the market.
It reinforced a notion that they're not more prescient than the average person looking at the economy, looking at jobs, and although they may use more erudite language than the rest of us, at the end of the day they still have to see what the data releases tell us.
The market is on its own now. It will make its own assessments, as it has been doing. The market will do its job, whether or not the Fed does its. Invariably, that's how it works.
I think the leave vote is surprising people that it's gaining momentum.
There is concern (about Brexit) but to me it's more manifested in the cash on the sidelines.
This is more normalization as opposed to hiking. It's getting rates commensurate with where they believe growth is. This is just getting it at a level that is not warning of impending recession or an economy that's contracting.
The market wants to hear from Janet Yellen. It's one thing to hear from surrogates. ... The market is a bit confused as to whether this represents what Janet Yellen really wants if this is the message she wants to telegraph to markets.
You heard one after another during the earnings season talk about the difficulties - they're cutting, they're closing stores. The fact of the matter is there have been questions about retail spending, and valuations overall in consumer discretionary were rich.
By June they will have a broad clutch of data and that could help them, and even some of the doves the Federal Open Market Committee, to come to a solid conclusion (on the desirability of a rate hike) and a conclusion, by the way, that the market agrees with.
Certainly the data today did not help either the bulls or the bears in terms of where the economy is going. For those who want to go into the market they're waiting for more confirmation (of economic growth). They need to be shown. will help, especially if we see wage growth moving higher.
The Fed is telegraphing to the market, we understand the process of normalization is going to cause uncertainty to markets. , we're watching it from a global perspective. But the Fed is not running a hedge fund. At the end of the day, the Fed has two mandates. They could not continue to keep rates low with the labor market improving.
We've been watching what the Treasury market has been saying about the rate hike from the get-go. They're telling you this could be a policy mistake.
If the Fed is not going to be underpinning the market, the valuations have to fall into line with fundamentals.