Ric Spooner - CMC Markets


Last quote by Ric Spooner

The problem is BHP management has a dissenting view. They don't agree that they would be better off by selling the oil assets. BHP believes that the advantage of oil is that it allows diversification and that it does well when other commodities do badly.feedback
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May 19 2017 Oil
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ric Spooner is associated, including U.S., Donald Trump, and risk. Most recently, Ric Spooner has been quoted saying: “The commodity optimism of earlier this year looks to be in the process of being completely unwound. Last night's sharp drop in the oil price and further weakness in metals prices will deliver another negative start for [resource stocks] today.” in the article Oil plunges to lowest level for five months amid global growth fears.
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Ric Spooner quotes

We do have support from mining stocks. The second thing supporting the mining sector is further upgrades for Fortescue Metals.feedback

Newcrest Mining had a solid production report this morning, which leave it on track to achieve production guidance for the current financial year.feedback

U.S. stock markets tend to be a sentiment leader for world markets and in what's become a familiar pattern over recent years, the quarterly profit reporting season is supporting that sentiment. Around a third of companies in the S&P 500 index have now reported and overall earnings are ahead of consensus forecasts.feedback

Unwinding free trade agreements and imposing border taxes is seen by markets as a negative for the dollar, which is not being helped by statements from the U.S. Treasury Secretary about it being overvalued.feedback

Market reaction is also likely to be muted with traders in risk averse mode prior to the Trump (inauguration) speech.feedback

We saw good profit results from big U.S. banks on Friday, which helped the Australian bank stocks.feedback

The most likely scenario is OPEC and non-OPEC member countries will be committed to the deal, especially in early stages.feedback

We're pretty close to the closing level - it'll be interesting to see if the upward momentum is maintained as the Europe and U.S. sessions open up. It is a safe assumption particularly in the early stages that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will abide by the agreement to curb output.feedback

It (the Fitch rating affirmation) is probably going to give a minor confidence boost to the markets. I guess they (investors) would be looking out for what Moody's and S&P have to say.feedback

World markets continue to adjust to an outlook for higher U.S. interest rates and increased inflation risk boosted by major U.S. tax cuts.feedback

Investors who have been overweight cash and fixed interest are continuing to push stocks higher as confidence builds.feedback

The question of whether the production agreements are adhered to is one for the future. At this stage the safe assumption is that they will be, especially in the first few months.feedback

The bottom line for markets is that (the stimulus) will continue at a substantial rate for another 12 months with the possibility of being increased if conditions deteriorate.feedback

The Chinese government has been very consistent about this and continues to do things aimed at limiting the problems of corruption, and that suggests that the lower levels of demand seen in Macau are fairly permanent.feedback

I believe we are in a situation where we appear to be developing a bit of year-end optimism, wherein markets sort of react to anything positive.feedback

A weak lead from U.S. markets, Italy's referendum and tonight's release of U.S. jobs data all provide reasons for the stock market to close the week in cautious, wait-and-see mode.feedback

Support for energy stocks may carry through today as oil prices continue to rise in response to OPEC's production agreement.feedback

WTI has arrived at the peaks from the middle of last year and again in October.feedback

This is positive news that will make a sustainable difference to the oil market over the coming months.feedback

The oil market is unlikely to be impressed by any token, face saving agreement from OPEC largely based on production freezes.feedback

The "substantial increase in OPEC production over recent months will leave the market in a surplus position for some time unless it can agree on significant and sustainable production cuts.feedback

We may be just seeing profit taking, even though we saw gains in iron ore, copper prices on Friday. Some of the investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude to whether the recent gains are really going to sustain.feedback

Brent oil is parked just below $50 as traders wait on the outcome of the OPEC meeting. This sets oil up for a significant move next week depending on whether or not OPEC achieves an agreement on meaningful production cuts.feedback

The question for traders today will be whether buyers are prepared to act independently of a lead from U.S. markets.feedback

An issue for markets this week will be whether the sell-off in bonds is going to continue after another lift in U.S. yields on Friday.feedback

Donald Trump's economic policies remain the number one consideration for world markets. Investors are trying to strike the right balance between positioning for a major dose of US fiscal stimulus and not getting too far committed, given the uncertainty surrounding what policies the new Trump Administration will actually implement.feedback

Rising long term interest rates will provide share markets with another reason for caution.feedback

Like Brexit, the rally over the last two days increases the downside potential if Donald Trump does win the election.feedback

The markets see greater chances of Clinton winning the election but there is no certainty, and if Trump wins there would be a big risk- off move.feedback

Markets are likely to remove some of the risk premium taken as a precaution against a (Donald) Trump victory now that Hilary Clinton will not be charged over her use of a private email server. However, an element of uncertainty remains over this election. It seems unlikely that markets will make a full 'risk on' move until Clinton is declared the winner.feedback

Markets are likely to remove some of the risk premium taken as a precaution against a Trump victory now that Hilary Clinton will not be charged over her use of a private email server.feedback

There remains scope for a significant sell-off if Trump wins.feedback

Markets are currently attempting to strike the right balance between the greater probability of a Clinton win and the possibility of a significant sell-off on a Trump victory.feedback

The U.S. election will again be the main driver of where the stock market opens this morning.feedback

The market is always a little sensitive to (news about supply disruptions).feedback

It was always likely that investors were going to be cautious in the lead up to next week's U.S. election. However, with polls suggesting that Donald Trump's prospects are improving that caution is translating into nervousness.feedback

Even if the Fed does signal an inclination to lift rates in December, markets will take the view that this is unlikely if a Trump victory leads to uncertainty and a surge in financial market volatility. This view was played out in markets last night with the US dollar falling sharply and gold rallying.feedback

I don't think markets are assuming that Donald Trump will win the election but the news about the emails just got the market a bit nervous.feedback

There seems little doubt that a Trump victory would trigger selling in stock markets from current levels.feedback

The European Central Bank removed a source of immediate risk for traders by revealing that it did not discuss tapering its QE program at this month's meeting. Decisions are being deferred until December pending the outcome of research - meaning that meeting will be a key focus for markets.feedback

Stock markets are becoming nervous about the prospect of rising interest rates against a background of moderate profit growth and relatively high valuations, particularly in the U.S.feedback

If your view is that this is a good enough scenario to allow the Fed to lift rates again this year, there was nothing in Friday's data to change that position.feedback

This is reflected by bond yields rising and gold crashing.feedback

Trading ranges on international markets have narrowed over the past couple of sessions. Markets appear to have arrived at a level that reflects the consensus view of the balance between risk and reward.feedback

It (the climb in Australian markets) provides pretty clear evidence, if that was needed, that next week's central bank meetings, particularly the Fed meeting, are dominating the short-term market thinking.feedback

Markets have long contemplated the day when the global bond sell-off begins and creates a knock-on impact on share and property valuations.feedback

People are seeing that rally we had on a very big decline in (U.S.) inventories last week is a bit of a selling opportunity.feedback

Downward momentum is a feature of the oil market.feedback

The potential for the Fed to gradually lead international central banks out of the current stimulus phase is making investors wary about pushing stocks up to higher valuations.feedback

My view is that oil prices will find a low between $39 and $42 per barrel over the coming weeks. After that, however, we are coming closer to seeing a balanced market again. $50-$60 a barrel would represent such supply and demand balance.feedback

We seem to be possibly seeing a little bit of a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-fact reaction to the inflation data.feedback

My view is that oil prices will find a low between $39 and $42 per barrel over the coming weeks due to headwinds. After that, however, we are coming closer to seeing a balanced market again. $50-60 per barrel would represent such a supply and demand balance.feedback

The market has put two and two together after release of the more detailed (Reserve Bank of Australia) minutes and concluded that the probability of an August rate cut has increased.feedback

The market is looking past the coup. There is no disruption to shipping. There is nothing in terms of short-term risk (to oil supply).feedback

There was another set of strong retail sales data (on Friday) - U.S. GDP numbers have done pretty well in the second quarter.feedback

We do see a bit of counter-cyclical trade going on in the Asia time zone. Gold is a little higher, equity markets are strong, but not as strong previously, the dollar is up.feedback

The market is concerned about the momentum in oil prices and whether that will be maintained or not.feedback

Yesterday's API data might be making traders a bit nervous ahead of official U.S. stocks data today.feedback

The market is beginning to focus on the wider euro zone risk.feedback

Stock markets may find it difficult to return immediately to the levels seen before last week's vote with buyers being wary about being too aggressive in what may yet be just another volatile swing.feedback

Despite the likelihood of a good session this morning, it's likely that markets will leave a Brexit risk factor in pricing for a while yet.feedback

The broad picture at the moment is that oil is being swept up in a broad risk off move associated with Brexit primarily.feedback

Markets will be focused on the Fed's dot plot (summary of economic projections) and what Janet Yellen has to say about the timing of the next rate hike. However, this may become irrelevant if Britain does vote for Brexit and markets react negatively into July.feedback

The market has a number of potential risk events before it. Chief among these is the Brexit vote on 23 June. Now only two weeks away, the Brexit vote is likely to impact trader behavior in the broader risk markets like equities and commodities.feedback

Certainly ($50) is a psychological barrier. There is a momentum, people will try and push it up over that.feedback

China's comments are a timely reminder that the Chinese and Asian economies are still growing strongly. Even though China's target growth rates are down for this year, it's still growing and that means more energy needs overall.feedback

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