Last quote by Richard Aboulafia
Richard Aboulafia quotes
It isn't looking good, and we don't know what the impact is gonna be. The US is going to be the only manufacturing economy in the world without an export credit agency, and that's going to be difficult.
That's going to change fast, but there's so much we don't know because there's so much they don't know.
There might be cost overruns one day but there haven't been so far.
By reducing payload the plane could fly further. Still, it does appear to have been flying at the outer end of its range capability.
In the here and now, Iran maybe has the ability to absorb and finance at most a quarter of the aircraft.
Now it looks like 737 output will not grow as planned.
737 output is their only realistic way to increase cash flow.
This is part of a much broader problem that we've seen in the world, in which countries are turning inwards and reacting against globalization and open borders.
It further reduces the prospect of the deals going ahead.
It's a combination of a re-armament cycle coupled with something of a ramp-up based on regional tensions and fears.
In this environment, consolidation is inevitable as a cost-control move.
Are they orders or cheap options? That is what we are going to find out.
The issue is how do you as a manufacturer survive the ill winds blowing from the outside world.
It is better to cannibalize your own market than have someone do it for you.
This could well determine what happens in the next round of the great engine restructuring game.
This will mostly be a military show.
Mr. Leahy is a superb diplomat. But of course good diplomacy can sometimes take precedent over solid reality. There is no way to adjust the numbers to make Africa as important as Asia in ten years, unless somehow Asia's travel growth numbers fall drastically and Africa's numbers rise dramatically. Nobody else is expecting either of these trends to emerge.
We'll see strong orders, technical progress in key programmes, and airline optimism. In short, the industry will continue to be largely de-linked from global economic trends.
Airbus did the right thing. Engines are really the only new technology that enables new narrow body products in the next five to 10 years, and airlines are eager to get them. I strongly suspect Boeing will need to match them with a re-engined 737. Boeing should accelerate this programme. The only thing worse than doing a 'me-too' plane is being clearly forced to do one after a few high profile market losses.