Richard Aboulafia - Teal Group

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Last quote by Richard Aboulafia

Lockheed has an edge because it doesn't have development costs, but Boeing has a nice design, and if they aggressively bid they could take this.feedback
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Apr 20 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Richard Aboulafia is associated, including Iran, Ex-Im, and aircraft. Most recently, Richard Aboulafia has been quoted saying: “In terms of economics, much depends on fuel prices. If they stay at $50 (£30) a barrel or less, it should be possible to keep costs reasonable. But as fuel goes up, the disadvantages of flying a very heavy plane begin to make ultra-long haul problematic.” in the article London to Sydney non-stop flights 'real possibility' within five years, says Qantas.
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Richard Aboulafia quotes

The Trump administration is absolutely determined to ratchet up tensions and the Iranians will of course, being hardliners there, want to do the same.feedback

The F-35 was displacing all other players. But fourth generation production models, especially Boeing F-15s, are going to have a longer life than predicted.feedback

If this thing is going to be rescued, it's going to have to be rescued by the President. And he's implied that he won't go to bat for it.feedback

The Ex-Im bank is probably one of the few forms of government intervention that is both harmless and can make a difference.feedback

It isn't looking good, and we don't know what the impact is gonna be. The US is going to be the only manufacturing economy in the world without an export credit agency, and that's going to be difficult.feedback

That's going to change fast, but there's so much we don't know because there's so much they don't know.feedback

There might be cost overruns one day but there haven't been so far.feedback

By reducing payload the plane could fly further. Still, it does appear to have been flying at the outer end of its range capability.feedback

In the here and now, Iran maybe has the ability to absorb and finance at most a quarter of the aircraft.feedback

Now it looks like 737 output will not grow as planned.feedback

737 output is their only realistic way to increase cash flow.feedback

This is part of a much broader problem that we've seen in the world, in which countries are turning inwards and reacting against globalization and open borders.feedback

It further reduces the prospect of the deals going ahead.feedback

It's a combination of a re-armament cycle coupled with something of a ramp-up based on regional tensions and fears.feedback

In this environment, consolidation is inevitable as a cost-control move.feedback

Are they orders or cheap options? That is what we are going to find out.feedback

The issue is how do you as a manufacturer survive the ill winds blowing from the outside world.feedback

It is better to cannibalize your own market than have someone do it for you.feedback

This could well determine what happens in the next round of the great engine restructuring game.feedback

This will mostly be a military show.feedback

Mr. Leahy is a superb diplomat. But of course good diplomacy can sometimes take precedent over solid reality. There is no way to adjust the numbers to make Africa as important as Asia in ten years, unless somehow Asia's travel growth numbers fall drastically and Africa's numbers rise dramatically. Nobody else is expecting either of these trends to emerge.feedback

We'll see strong orders, technical progress in key programmes, and airline optimism. In short, the industry will continue to be largely de-linked from global economic trends.feedback

Airbus did the right thing. Engines are really the only new technology that enables new narrow body products in the next five to 10 years, and airlines are eager to get them. I strongly suspect Boeing will need to match them with a re-engined 737. Boeing should accelerate this programme. The only thing worse than doing a 'me-too' plane is being clearly forced to do one after a few high profile market losses.feedback

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