Last quote by Richard Benson
Richard Benson quotes
Emerging markets to the sword is the chatter. The question is whether the bond rout that we've seen lasts next week. It is pretty hard for U.S. stocks to keep rising when emerging is getting whacked, or for the dollar to perform against the yen if risk assets come under proper pressure.
The only FX consensus position that hasn't been challenged this month is short sterling. If you got a Trump victory next Tuesday it would be majorly challenged. If we were to wake up to sterling at $1.2650 or higher, watch out, we could go anywhere.
The polls are now roughly 50-50, but the probabilities are still hugely in favour of Clinton, given how the votes are spread out (per state). The question is whether people decide to reduce risk ahead of the election.
Really the euro should have gained yesterday but this announcement of a Brainard speech right at the last moment before the blackout period for the Fed has made people nervous.
I would say there's a lot of uncertainty on the yen, but on the euro yes there is doubt about the ECB's ability to do enough.
Janet Yellen could not bring herself to raise rates when the conditions were perfect for it. She is not going to do it now.
It's an extraordinary move for financial markets and also for democracy. The market is pricing interest rate cuts from the big central banks and we assume there will be a global liquidity add from them in the next few hours.
The ECB are going to do nothing tomorrow. (ECB chief Mario) Draghi might try to play up how big their package of easing was a month ago, but I don't think he's really going to rattle the currency.
Sterling does not normally react strongly to UK politics so this is probably due to Brexit.
Clearly, the grown-ups all wanted to say 'let's calm down' and moves on currencies have been relatively muted.