Last quote by Richard Cochinos
Richard Cochinos quotes
There are expectations for tax cuts next year – which were part of the Trump campaign's promises – and then there's also the idea of what type of fiscal boost are you going to have. That's what's driving asset prices – it's people's expectations for the fiscal impulse next year.
If Trump wins I think what you end up with is that there are two different dollars. It is very likely it can weaken against the other majors but it is very likely it will gain against emerging market currencies like the peso, the rand and so on.
I think sterling is very exposed, but it is also going to need a trigger for it to go lower.
The market broadly sees that the ECB is going to be somewhat more positive on the outlook for Europe this week. They still will need to announce more accommodative policy next year, but it does seem that they may also believe the need for ever greater accommodation is decreasing. That is leaving the euro positive on the (non-dollar) crosses.
From the FOMC members, we're getting a consistent message that some probability should be applied to June-July in terms of a rate hike, and that does help to keep both pressure on the dollar to strengthen as well as the front-end of Treasuries to sell off.