Richard Curtin

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Last quote by Richard Curtin

Consumer sentiment remained on the high plateau established following Trump's election, with the early May figure nearly identical with the December to May average of 97.4. The Trump bump was relatively small given that the Sentiment Index averaged 91.8 in the comparable six month period a year ago and 94.5 in the same period two years ago.feedback
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May 12 2017 Trump Presidency
Richard Curtin has most recently been quoted in an article called US consumer sentiment beats estimates, hits 98. Richard Curtin said, “Much more progress on shrinking the partisan gap is needed to bring economic expectations in line with reality. A slow pace of convergence will make it more difficult to disentangle political fervor from what appears to be a growing sense among consumers that the economy will experience fundamental changes in the years ahead.”. Richard Curtin has been quoted a grand total of 28 times in 21 articles.
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Richard Curtin quotes

To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons, however, can quickly end if they are unaccompanied by prospects that economic conditions will actually improve in the future.feedback

The upsurge in favorable economic prospects is not surprising given Trump's populist policy views, and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended.feedback

The most striking finding in early November was that both near and long-term inflation expectations jumped to 2.7 percent from last month's record matching lows of 2.4 percent.feedback

Overall, real personal consumption expenditures can be expected to increase by 2.5 percent through mid 2017.feedback

Prospects for renewed gains, other than a relief rally following the election results, would require somewhat larger wage increases and continued job growth as well as the maintenance of low inflation. Overall, real personal consumption can be expected to increase by 2.5% through mid 2017.feedback

It is likely that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election had a negative impact, especially among lower income consumers, and without that added uncertainty, the confidence measures may not have weakened.feedback

While no recession is anticipated, consumers increasingly expect a slower pace of economic growth in the year ahead.feedback

The stability in the overall sentiment index reflects a gradual improvement in assessments of current conditions being offset by a downward drift in the economic prospects.feedback

Consumer sentiment continued its slow decline in late April due to weakening expectations for future growth, although their views of current economic conditions remained positive.feedback

This stability reflected more positive personal finances being offset by less favorable prospects for the economy. Indeed, consumers were more optimistic about their inflation-adjusted income expectations than any time since 2007.feedback

Most of the decline from last year's peak has been in how consumers view year-ahead prospects for the economy, while the outlook for their personal financial situation has improved to its best level in ten years. Rather modest wage gains as well as very low inflation have meant that consumers expect increases in their real incomes during the year ahead.feedback

Consumer confidence nearly recovered the entire small loss it recorded at mid month.feedback

A less favorable outlook for the economy during the year ahead was balanced by steady longer term prospects.feedback

No one would have guessed forty years ago, when high inflation was the chief cause of pessimism, that consumers would someday base their optimism on ultra-low inflation transforming meager wages into real income gains.feedback

Consumers anticipate that the growth slowdown will be accompanied by smaller wage gains and slight increases in unemployment by the end of 2016. Importantly, favorable financial prospects have become dependent on very low inflation. .... Consumers will actively demonstrate their resistance by moderating their purchases in the face of price hikes, thus acting to offset the [Federal Reserve's] rationale for higher rates.feedback

Consumer confidence has remained largely unchanged, as the January reading was just 0.6 percent below last month's level. The small downward revisions were due to stock market declines that were reflected in the erosion of household wealth, as well as weakened prospects for the national economy.feedback

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