Last quote by Richard Curtin
Richard Curtin quotes
It is likely that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election had a negative impact, especially among lower income consumers, and without that added uncertainty, the confidence measures may not have weakened.
While no recession is anticipated, consumers increasingly expect a slower pace of economic growth in the year ahead.
The stability in the overall sentiment index reflects a gradual improvement in assessments of current conditions being offset by a downward drift in the economic prospects.
Consumer sentiment continued its slow decline in late April due to weakening expectations for future growth, although their views of current economic conditions remained positive.
This stability reflected more positive personal finances being offset by less favorable prospects for the economy. Indeed, consumers were more optimistic about their inflation-adjusted income expectations than any time since 2007.
Most of the decline from last year's peak has been in how consumers view year-ahead prospects for the economy, while the outlook for their personal financial situation has improved to its best level in ten years. Rather modest wage gains as well as very low inflation have meant that consumers expect increases in their real incomes during the year ahead.
Consumer confidence nearly recovered the entire small loss it recorded at mid month.
A less favorable outlook for the economy during the year ahead was balanced by steady longer term prospects.
No one would have guessed forty years ago, when high inflation was the chief cause of pessimism, that consumers would someday base their optimism on ultra-low inflation transforming meager wages into real income gains.
Consumers anticipate that the growth slowdown will be accompanied by smaller wage gains and slight increases in unemployment by the end of 2016. Importantly, favorable financial prospects have become dependent on very low inflation. .... Consumers will actively demonstrate their resistance by moderating their purchases in the face of price hikes, thus acting to offset the [Federal Reserve's] rationale for higher rates.
Consumer confidence has remained largely unchanged, as the January reading was just 0.6 percent below last month's level. The small downward revisions were due to stock market declines that were reflected in the erosion of household wealth, as well as weakened prospects for the national economy.