Last quote by Rick Rieder
Rick Rieder quotes
Some of the banks and financials in broader Europe have traded at cheaper levels because of the 'risk'. We have definitely added some banks and financials because we think they've gotten reasonable.
The thing to watch will be capital flows, as a good amount of money has shifted into EMD [emerging market debt]. It will be important to see if investors have the patience and wherewithal to stick out any near-term headline risks.
This may well aid in accelerating the pickup in inflation levels that already appeared underway, and it likely also results in steepening in the yield curve over time. Of course there are several ways in which this infrastructure could be financed, and if done properly it could benefit from the extraordinary financing conditions we have today.
Some of the correlations between rates and equities are changing. I think it's a big deal if the Fed can start to move. You lose some of that benefits of rates being your ballast against risk assets.
I don't think they're going to go, particularly given the recent data that's been softer. I think they're going to wait until December.
I think the Bank of Japan is very important. They could change the amount [they purchase] to a range. I think people could view that as tapering, which I don't think they're going to do.
I think the Bank of Japan is very comfortable with the yield curve steepening. The steepening helps their banking system, helps their insurance companies. I think they're covered with the yield curve because it looks like their policies are working.
I think what makes it difficult for everybody is if you go through the speeches, and see who has come out among the voters and said they're ready to raise rates, the majority of the voters have articulated that they are comfortable with rates going higher, but I still think the committee will not do that.
You are still getting paid substantially positive real rates in places like Brazil or Argentina or Mexico or Indonesia. As long as the dollar stays reasonably contained, as long as growth is moderate but growing, I think emerging markets will do well.
My guess is you'll see a rate cut but you will probably not see the perimeters of a quantitative easing.
I'm going to hold to the case that this Fed is going to have a hard time moving this year. That being said, I think the Fed would like to get a rate hike in and the question is are you going to get the opportunity to do it, but I think the dynamics made it significantly more difficult.
Fifty-five to 60 percent of growth is coming from emerging markets. If the dollar was going to rise significantly, it could impact that growth.
I think people are buying them, A: because they've shorted them against other assets, B: because they are a flight to quality and I'm going to hold them and C: because the ECB has so many of them and there are not that many of them around.
The U.S. economy is in good shape on a global basis. I don't think we're going into recession this year, but it's definitely declining.
I don't think the economy we've talked about is going into recession, but that you've got a decent economy that's just slowing a bit.