Robert Halver

We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Robert Halver is associated, including Greece, France, and government. Most recently, Robert Halver has been quoted saying: “The markets are relaxed for two reasons: first, the Dutch voted in favour of Europe which definitely helps the European atmosphere. I am convinced the French will also vote the same. The other issue is that the US rate increase happened as expected. The rate hike is being interpreted as the US economy doing better than expected. So, a rate hike is acceptable. But much more important is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear we shouldn't worry about more rate increases any time soon.” in the article European shares jump on Dutch election result and dovish Fed. An other article where Robert Halver has been quoted is Financial markets braced for US interest rate hike.

Robert Halver quotes

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Selling so many shares for a capital increase is obviously not pleasant but there's no other way, Deutsche Bank has to raise money in order to move on from its problems. They have to have a clean up and that's what they are doing. It's also important for Deutsche Bank, which is very big, to look to the future and make its capital operations functional. So I welcome this capital increase. It has to be done.

The markets are relaxed for two reasons: first, the Dutch voted in favour of Europe which definitely helps the European atmosphere. I am convinced the French will also vote the same. The other issue is that the US rate increase happened as expected. The rate hike is being interpreted as the US economy doing better than expected. So, a rate hike is acceptable. But much more important is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear we shouldn't worry about more rate increases any time soon.

With the economy improving a rate increase is doable, but what's much more important is what comes next. I believe Janet Yellen will continue to play her rate game, but you musn't be scared that there are going to be further radical rate increases. Her rate changes will be gradual. No one will get hurt because she knows full well that with the world's debt as it is, a sharp rate increase is not manageable.

The country is not getting anywhere in the eurozone and everybody knows it. They should be able to leave and be granted a debt relief. However, debt relief in an election year in Germany will never work politically and should the Greeks leave the eurozone, in a Europe that has already been weakened, Grexit would be the first domino to fall.

Share prices will be more volatile, on the basis of daily 140-letter tweets with significant content. What's interesting is the possibility of new trade agreements, for example with Britain, as Theresa May will be in the US in the next days and she'll be the first leader to see Mr Trump personally.

Italy is systemically important, the Eurozone cannot survive without Italy, there's no speculation about that.

There is the famous danger of contagion. Should Italy be in trouble, for example because elections are required, there is a virus that could also affect other countries: Greece, Portugal, Spain and even France. Yields for government stocks are going up and bank risks are increasing again. There will be a renewed call on one institution to save everything: the ECB.

With Trump nobody knows what he will do. During his election campaign he said he wanted to limit free trade, protectionism in favour of America. Is that only an election campaign position or is it actually the coming policy that will apply in 2017? This uncertainty, which is negative especially for exports, weighs heavy on the German stock exchange.

We don't think there's going to be an interest rate hike, but there is great tension as one thing is clear: whenever interest rates are going to be raised, it will have a negative effect on stock markets.

Mrs Clinton won over Donald Trump in the first TV debate. We have known Mrs Clinton for 20 years. She was secretary of state, she was the wife of a US president. That means that if she were to become president, there is a certain amount that we already know.

With Donald Trump, we don't know what to expect. He has put forward a lot of bizarre suggestions. He most likely also has a different idea of the global economy, of free trade which would unsettle the rest of the world. So the markets will be calmer if Clinton gets it. But still even if it is Donald Trump, and there would, of course, be certain shock waves and numbness, the markets would revive. Because even a Donald Trump can't completely ignore the global order.

Deutsche Bank can't pay $14 billion. It only has 5.5 billion set aside. But I'm sure in the end it won't be that high. Because comparable criminal settlements with other banks have been significantly lower. I reckon about five billion, which is bad enough. But the problem is it's facing other criminal trials, and they will also cost money.

There's an affectionate relationship between Frankfurt and London. They want to come together. But there are legal uncertainties. It makes no sense for the headquarters to be in London now, so they could say: 'We'll merge and Frankfurt will have the top chair, but, in case Britain remains in the EU, there'll be a second chair so there could be a reasonable outcome'. Anyway, the main thing is, Frankfurt remains the senior partner.

China is important for the world economy, definitely and once right now we see that China is losing momentum. That's especially negative for Germany, exports and imports to China.

I do not think that there will be long-term repercussions (on the market). Politically-influenced stock exchanges don't last long. We always see that, it was the same with September 11, though they took a while to recover then. Unfortunately, we are somewhat used to terrorist attacks. But I am convinced there will only be a short-term effect.

I think the stock market would have wanted a different result, a coalition in Turkey. If they now try to fundamentally change the constitution, that won't be to the stock market's taste. We also know that Turkey is incredibly important in tackling the refugee crisis. Most would have preferred to see a coalition government.

But they are still growing, they are still a big player on the world stage. Then the markets will improve. In Europe there is a need to catch up as well. For example in France and Spain few people bought new cars for the past two or three years. So as long as the world economy as a whole is stabilising there is no reason to worry.

Either a Grexit or staying in, either way we need a decision. The uncertainty is wearing us all down. But of course we know that if the Greeks do stay in, that will only a pyrrhic victory. In the long term it will achieve nothing. Give the Greeks a chance – let them leave.

I think both sides are playing cat and mouse. Greece's government has a mandate to ease austerity, while its lenders equally have one not to give any more money without reforms. How can those positions be reconciled when we know Greece is bankrupt?

All tax evasion, even old ones, will one day be uncovered. That's the way it is, truth will always prevail. To me, this shows very clearly that the topic of tax evasion, no matter where, is being addressed. There will be more revelations but it's clear that time is up.

The markets know exactly that the Greeks of course will receive help. They will not quit because it would threaten the very existence of the euro zone, and we all know about EU financial diplomacy. A dodgy kind of compromise will be found in Greece, with no overt haircut, but a stealth one.

The economic situation remains very difficult, also in Germany as far as industrial orders go. That's not great. In the eurozone overall there is massive restraint because their economies are not doing well.

It hurts, especially since Russia will go into recession if things continue this way. Russia has the problem of three negatives: [because of the sanctions] it can't get capital, or high-tech or weapons systems or anything that can be used as a weapons system. The country will go into recession. And we will suffer as well, especially the German businesses which are more invested in the Russian economy.

The economic cold war with Russia is slowly getting hotter.

What the Turks are doing here, through their central bank is very dangerous. To more than double the one-week repo rate from 4.5 percent to 10 percent, could damage the economy massively, it stops the currency falling initially, but there will be higher credit costs and Turkey's solid economic growth is very much in danger.

The future looks brighter, meaning the forecasts for the world economy are better than expected. And that's great for German companies' shares which do have that export potential.

So we finally know what the Fed is going to do, which means investors don't have to worry any more. We are now dealing with facts rather than speculation. The tapering is coming in small doses. It is dovish [rather than hawkish] tapering. Buying 10 billion dollars less of bonds each month, it's not really that bad.

We need jobs, jobs, jobs…we can't allow labour costs to rise too much.

As the United States has always saved the world with new debt, most people were confident they would succeed this time around, even if it was at the last moment. The Americans haven't let us down but this time they really pushed the boundaries.

It's been a difficult birth but the ESM is finally here. Now Spain could ask for aid. The banks definitely need money because without the support of banks, the real estate market can not be reformed. Prices have to fall, which means write-offs for banks. To achieve that, they need new capital and that's coming from the ESM.

You have to smile: Spain will ask for a bailout. It's just that right now they're in the process of negotiating the conditions. Spain doesn't want to cut as much as other countries. They would like to have the money without too much reform. I am sure, Spain will get the money but the reforms will not be such that Spain suffers so much.

Mr Monti has to be careful. One cannot just switch off democracy so the parliaments have no say in the matter anymore, in order to change the eurozone into a bureaucratic monster. That is not democratic at all. The problem of the eurozone is not that the parliaments interfere but that many countries like Italy did not do their homework. If you are sloppy you'd better be quiet.

We have crises everywhere: in Spain the banking crisis, in Greece the fear of an exit from the euro zone, and in Germany, the rescue mechanism, the fiscal compact which is still not approved. We slowly but surely need results.

We have the Greeks who are not able to form a government, there is the question of what Mr. Hollande and Mrs. Merkel will discuss this week, austerity or more debts. All of this is quite sad because the world economy is booming.

The markets are afraid of two things. First, the return to the old debt policy after the French and Greek elections, and secondly the typical complaints that arose last year over the disappointment that not all problems can be solved at once. I am sure though that by now politics has a sense of reality and the axis – Paris, Frankfurt and Berlin – will manage to get together and solve the problems.

Having two problems, economic and political, will not be manageable. They have to go out.

With so many downgrades, they aren't being taken seriously any more. The pattern is always the same: something positive happens in the eurozone, like parliamentary decisions on austerity measures, and it's followed by downgrades. We really don't take them seriously anymore.

Even a 100 percent haircut of the Greek debt would not be a sustainable solution for Greece. Because Greece has no chance to survive the eurozone with the euro currency. The best way would be for the Greeks to go out of the eurozone, do their homework (for) about 10 years and come back.

It makes no sense to have only in one country a financial transaction tax, because the investors will go to other countries, into England, to Germany, to do their business in those countries. So it makes no sense. We have to have a financial transaction fee in all countries of the euro zone, that would make sense, not in just one country.

We are still in the midst of the crisis of European debts, definitely. We have the same problems we had in 2011 and I guess this year policy should do its homework and the ECB is still the master of creating solutions.

The downgrades by Fitch are a clear consequence of the lack of ability in Europe to do the right things. We have to solve the debt crisis and until now, I see no clear instruments for that. I am hopeful that at least in the next couple of weeks, we have this solution, and this solution should include the ECB.

If politicians reach a convincing debt solution, investors should start buying government bonds on their own. Right now liquidity is missing and that can only come from the European Central Bank.

We have a big EU summit next weekend and I guess it was a wake up call of Standard & Poor's to say: 'Please policy (sic) do the right thing.

Italy is one of the most important dominos of the euro zone and my impression is that the American rating agencies are about to let these dominos fall which would have tremendous consequences for the euro zone. My impression is that America is about to distract from its own problems, pointing the finger at Italy and the euro zone. That's not fair.

The Fed did not do the right thing. The markets had expected even more to stimulate the US economy. We have a political crisis, a financial crisis, a banking crisis and is very bad for the markets, for the mood.

The decision of German Supreme Court did not come in as a big surprise.The markets had already expected this and I guess in the future, we will have more rescue packages for the euro zone.

The markets were well aware that the Constitutional Court could not make a different decision. Had the court ruled that the European bailout programme was unconstitutional, we would have witnessed the sudden death of the euro zone today.

We still have a political crisis, in the US as well as Europe. More and more voices in Europe and within the German government are saying that Greece shouldn't be a member of the euro zone any longer. So, we can expect some major political mud-slinging over this issue and not many positive things this week – no clarity at all.

Irene is a bad thing, no doubt about, but I guess it's not a big issue that we should have a focus on that. I guess business life will go on.

In the long run European financial governance would be desirable, but the road to get there is incredibly long. Remember that the European constitution took two years to create, and this process would take even longer. It is not a short-term solution. The markets want to know now how Italy, Spain and other unstable countries can be stabilised.

We still live in difficult times. Roller coaster times, that's the stock exchanges. And this kind of cacophony coming up from politicians is absolute madness. It is naive to hear these assumptions and suggestions from politicians to say what can we do to get rid of the problems. It is no solution to say: Italy, please sell your gold, it's no solution.

For two days, everybody was happy Greece is getting help. But that's short-lived. Next week, we'll find out what that pledge to bail out Greece is actually worth. The moment of truth comes, when the (Greek) parliament votes (on the austerity programme).

I guess there will be no situation right now to calm the markets. We need a solution right now to give the markets security in which way we can help the Greek government and the Greek people.

We can't just keep pumping money into Greece. Its high debts mean Greece can't stand on its own feet. That's why a debt restructuring is proposed now, and I hope that Mr. Schäuble's view will be accepted.

We have just 'time gaining' measures now. We need a business plan for Greece in the next couple of years and I guess agriculture, tourism, solar energy and an export hub for the Middle East could be the best business case for Greece in the next couple of years. To pump even more money into Greece is no solution.

One could argue and indeed say: what about the Bundesbank's independence if a close aide is given this job? But I believe that the current difficult times we are facing – such as the euro crisis and the stability crisis and how the ECB and the Bundesbank deal with them – demands unconventional solutions.

There can only be a far-reaching solution to the crisis: that is the United States of euroland. That's the solution, otherwise, the markets won't be satisfied. If we carry on like this is headless chicken town with 16 crazy chickens not being able to mount a common defence, and if people are happy with a minimum compromise that could have been reached just with a telephone conference call, then you shouldn't be surprised that we're the laughing stock of the financial markets.

There's no alternative to this rescue package. The other States, the other governments of Germany or France and so on, are forced to help Ireland because Ireland could be the first step to a big crisis in Euroland and nobody is interested in this.

Today is judgement day. Many people and investors are thinking about the future of the common currency and I guess we are losing stability criteria. That's not good for the euro currency in the short term.

I don't think the Euro is heading for a big fall, but I don't think it is in a fit state to rise either. The question is, will Greece make it? This is a quantum leap for Greece, and everyone is wondering if they will manage it.

There's a big worry that Arab investors may sell their automobile shares, that there will be a slump in construction, that promoters will stop paying creditors, or that banks have agreed too many loans. But we survived the financial crisis, and we'll survive this problem as well.

We will have a more market-friendly government. That's good for the equities but with regard to the high level of debt we've got in Germany, any reform policy is constrained.

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