Robert Tipp

We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Robert Tipp is associated, including Fed and September. Most recently, Robert Tipp has been quoted saying: “We are seeing the uncertainty premium coming in. We are seeing stocks tanking and bonds rallying. If the Fed sees tighter financial conditions which could have a knock-on effect on the economy, it may reconsider raising rates next month.” in the article TREASURIES-U.S. bonds rally as stock futures plunge.

Robert Tipp quotes

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There's way too much uncertainty about the content and timing on fiscal stimulus.

We are seeing the uncertainty premium coming in. We are seeing stocks tanking and bonds rallying. If the Fed sees tighter financial conditions which could have a knock-on effect on the economy, it may reconsider raising rates next month.

The Fed clearly wants more growth than inflation.

Yields have spent the month of October moving upward [on] fears of payrolls, the Fed, the European Central Bank. One by one, the various concerns are getting aired.

But there were three dissenters; that's a lot. That's a statement that there's a lot of pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.

I don't think they have too many more big options left.

I think the confluence out there suggests that there must be a consensus across the Fed that they will get a rate hike done this year, if they can. I think she will aim for the dovish hike. The problem with the dovish hike is I don't think you can do that in September. If you want to do so, a dovish hike is much easier in December. If you do it in September, you're going to have a lot of participants pricing in another hike in December.

The market has shut them out. The market is only pricing a 50/50 chance of a hike this year. If they want to get this done, and they don't want to shock the market and create a whole repeat of last year's market volatility from not going [last September] … they have to inject the expectations of another rate hike. The best defense is a good offense.

If they get a clear signal from the market and the economy they need to move, they'll do that without a clear indication from the election cycle. A lot of things have to come together that probably won't happen by September. The Fed wants to keep that window open … keep people optimistic about the backdrop.

December is much more likely than September. I think by just leaving the door cracked open to hiking interest rates, they'll be trying to keep their options open. In all likelihood, they're probably expecting European data led by the U.K. to tip over in the next couple of months. I think optimistically they would see U.S. growth powering right through and Europe getting less worse than feared.

I think they're going to want to try to open the door for rate hikes later in the year. It's a delicate balancing act. They don't want to sound so grim about the outlook that would lead people to believe the Fed knows something the rest of us don't. At the same time, they need to exude enough optimism to make the case that a hike is something they could get away with, but in the best interest of everyone.

People may think this may end with the vote, but this may just be the beginning of this whole process.

I think that should be very helpful. I think the central banks obviously have a vested interest in keeping liquidity in markets.

It's a rehash. The underlying message is a continuation of the trend that the Fed is moving toward a more cautious stance to support this economic expansion with the fragility of the economic backdrop.

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