Samuel Tombs - Capital Economics

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Last quote by Samuel Tombs

We expect growth to slow to around 0.2pc per quarter from the start of 2018, with a long and potentially messy EU negotiation damaging business confidence for the whole period. International businesses will not switch off investment in the UK overnight, but over five, 10 , 15 years it may hurt, with deep long-term effects on foreign direct investment and on GDP. But a lot will depend upon Brexit and whether we need to make large, sustained transfers to the EU's budget as part of any future arrangement.feedback
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May 20 2017 Brexit
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Samuel Tombs is associated, including UK, European Union, and growth. Most recently, Samuel Tombs has been quoted saying: “It think that the deficit has bottomed out and that it will rise from now on. It is already not as low as the government would like even after a lot of austerity, and by 2021 we forecast that it will rise to 4.3pc of GDP. Philip Hammond has pushed through a profound relaxation of the fiscal rules without any negative market reaction (the deficit projection was raised by a total of £122bn over five years in the Autumn Statement), and we anticipate a significant deterioration in the public finances.” in the article Budget deficit to rise as economists predict failure in battle to balance books.
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Samuel Tombs quotes

The decline in consumer confidence and slowdown in income growth towards the end of last year is weighing on price momentum.feedback

We expect growth in activity to be far too weak and uncertainty about the economic outlook to be too pressing for the (BoE) to hike rates this year.feedback

The stagnation of households' real incomes this year, mainly due to a burst of inflation, likely will weigh further on car purchases. The latest car registrations data illustrate that consumers have become less willing to make big financial commitments since the Brexit vote.feedback

Such rapid growth in unsecured credit is unsustainable over the medium-term, and the recent fall back in consumer confidence suggests that households will borrow more cautiously in 2017, subduing growth in consumption.feedback

Many retailers will have to increase prices in the first half of next year to respond to a falling sterling.feedback

It is increasingly difficult … to see how gilt yields could fall much further from here.feedback

Uncertainty about the economic outlook is making consumers cautious to purchase big-ticket discretionary items.feedback

I think exports will disappoint. Growth will pick up because of the weaker pound but if you are an exporter you are facing the most uncertainty of anyone at the moment.feedback

Easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.feedback

This will be an act of economic self-harm with global ramifications.feedback

Lending standards are slowly loosening … encouraging borrowers to take on even bigger loans. The stronger growth in credit is one thing that is going to be concerning the MPC … Banks are taking increasing risks now with their lending.feedback

We would see a very soft patch for the U.K. economy. [A Brexit] could push it into a recession for a short period. … If we were to go down that [Brexit] path there would be very sharp falls in business investment and outflows that would be quite painful.feedback

I think they won't cut rates – they would be more likely to provide the banks with more liquidity if they need it, just to prevent any banks from toppling over. Beyond that I don't think we would see any actual stimulus.feedback

I don't think we are in bubble territory yet, but I think if the Bank of England keeps rates on hold … financial stability risks are going to grow.feedback

The chances that investment or exports rebound and offset the consumer slowdown remain slim, given the recent Brexit-related declines in business confidence and the continued uncompetitiveness of UK exports in European markets.feedback

The recovery in spending will lose some momentum as job growth fades from recent stellar rates, inflation strengthens and the fiscal squeeze intensifies.feedback

Delving below the surface reveals a less impressive picture.feedback

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