Samuel Tombs - Capital Economics

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Last quote by Samuel Tombs

The decline in the PMI in June robustly challenges hopes that manufacturing and exports will pick up and offset the consumer spending slowdown. Today's manufacturing report weakens the case for raising interest rates soon.feedback
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Jul 03 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Samuel Tombs is associated, including UK, European Union, and growth. Most recently, Samuel Tombs has been quoted saying: “It is no longer impossible that we could get a couple of quarters of negative growth in consumer spending, if households start to get a bit more cautious on greater political uncertainty. It is not my central forecast, but it is a clear risk.” in the article Revival over… is the next recession due?.
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Samuel Tombs quotes

May 20 2017

The deficit now is under 3pc of GDP and they have made significant progress in getting it down, so it is no longer looking so implausible [to eliminate the deficit by 2025].feedback

May 11 2017 - Brexit

The risks to the Monetary Policy Committee's growth projections, therefore, lie overwhelmingly to the downside, given the real possibility that Brexit negotiations turn acrimonious.feedback

May 04 2017

The MPC likely will place much more weight at next week's meeting on the weak official data for the first quarter than on April's better PMIs, and we expect Kristin Forbes to remain alone in voting to raise interest rates.feedback

May 04 2017

Private car registrations plunged in April because vehicle excise duty (VED) rose sharply for cars purchased after April 1.feedback

Apr 07 2017

It's now incontrovertible that the housing market has slowed sharply this year, indicating that the monetary policy committee's interest rate cut in August provided only a temporary stimulus to demand.feedback

Mar 31 2017 - Brexit

The stock of overseas' investors assets in the UK equates to a massive 547% of annual GDP. Sterling would depreciate further if only a small proportion of these investors took flight. Signs that the UK is heading for a hard Brexit could be a trigger for such a fire sale.feedback

Mar 22 2017

CPI inflation still looks set to rise to 3pc by the summer and peak at about 3.5pc in the fourth quarter.feedback

Feb 07 2017

The strength of retail sales in the autumn – which prevented GDP growth from slowing after the referendum – appears to have reflected consumers bringing forward expenditure from 2017, due to anticipated price rises.feedback

Feb 02 2017

These concerns, however, clearly are not severe enough for any member to think higher rates are warranted immediately. The core view at the Bank remains that domestically-generated inflation, especially wage growth, will remain too weak to justify raising rates over the next year, a view we share.feedback

Feb 01 2017

The decline in consumer confidence and slowdown in income growth towards the end of last year is weighing on price momentum.feedback

Jan 05 2017

We expect growth in activity to be far too weak and uncertainty about the economic outlook to be too pressing for the (BoE) to hike rates this year.feedback

Jan 05 2017

The stagnation of households' real incomes this year, mainly due to a burst of inflation, likely will weigh further on car purchases. The latest car registrations data illustrate that consumers have become less willing to make big financial commitments since the Brexit vote.feedback

Jan 04 2017

Such rapid growth in unsecured credit is unsustainable over the medium-term, and the recent fall back in consumer confidence suggests that households will borrow more cautiously in 2017, subduing growth in consumption.feedback

Nov 08 2016

Many retailers will have to increase prices in the first half of next year to respond to a falling sterling.feedback

Aug 15 2016

It is increasingly difficult … to see how gilt yields could fall much further from here.feedback

Aug 04 2016 - Volkswagen scandal

Uncertainty about the economic outlook is making consumers cautious to purchase big-ticket discretionary items.feedback

Jul 08 2016

I think exports will disappoint. Growth will pick up because of the weaker pound but if you are an exporter you are facing the most uncertainty of anyone at the moment.feedback

Jul 01 2016

Easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline.feedback

Jun 24 2016

This will be an act of economic self-harm with global ramifications.feedback

May 11 2016

Lending standards are slowly loosening … encouraging borrowers to take on even bigger loans. The stronger growth in credit is one thing that is going to be concerning the MPC … Banks are taking increasing risks now with their lending.feedback

May 11 2016

We would see a very soft patch for the U.K. economy. [A Brexit] could push it into a recession for a short period. … If we were to go down that [Brexit] path there would be very sharp falls in business investment and outflows that would be quite painful.feedback

May 11 2016

I think they won't cut rates – they would be more likely to provide the banks with more liquidity if they need it, just to prevent any banks from toppling over. Beyond that I don't think we would see any actual stimulus.feedback

May 11 2016

I don't think we are in bubble territory yet, but I think if the Bank of England keeps rates on hold … financial stability risks are going to grow.feedback

Feb 25 2016

The chances that investment or exports rebound and offset the consumer slowdown remain slim, given the recent Brexit-related declines in business confidence and the continued uncompetitiveness of UK exports in European markets.feedback

Jan 22 2016 - Christmas

The recovery in spending will lose some momentum as job growth fades from recent stellar rates, inflation strengthens and the fiscal squeeze intensifies.feedback

Sep 12 2012

Delving below the surface reveals a less impressive picture.feedback

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