Shane Oliver

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Last quote by Shane Oliver

If this were happening a year ago, share markets would have gone into a tailspin. But because the U.S. economy is stronger now, the Fed's confidence in the outlook actually seems to be supporting the share market.feedback
Mar 03 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Shane Oliver is associated, including U.S., Donald Trump, and growth. Most recently, Shane Oliver has been quoted saying: “If this were happening a year ago, share markets would have gone into a tailspin. But because the U.S. economy is stronger now, the Fed's confidence in the outlook actually seems to be supporting the share market. After the strong gains since the U.S. election, the likelihood of a short-term share market correction remains high.” in the article Global shares lower as investors await Fed chair's speech.
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Shane Oliver quotes

There is a high risk that we will see a negative GDP outcome. I think the Reserve Bank might end up having to cut rates again.feedback

Total approvals are still relatively high but the speed at which they are rolling over is a real surprise. It already looks like the economy lost momentum in the third quarter and now residential investment could turn into a drag on growth next year.feedback

All talk of a hike is out the window after these building numbers.feedback

In the upside-down world logic that applies to much of investing, there are ... mistakes investors often make which make it harder for them to reach their financial goals.feedback

When everyone is bullish and has bought into an asset with general euphoria about it, there is no one left to buy in the face of more positive supporting news but lots of people who can sell if the news turns sour.feedback

Without a tried and tested asset allocation process, trying to … sell before falls and buy ahead of gains is very difficult.feedback

Australia will be particularly vulnerable if Trump were to set off a global trade war.feedback

The RBA is expected to leave interest rates on hold for the second month in a row at 1.5 percent. Not enough has changed since the last rate cut in August, most recent commentary from the RBA including from Governor Lowe has expressed a broadly neutral tone regarding rates.feedback

The RBA is likely waiting for the release of the September quarter inflation data in late October as a guide to whether it will cut in November.feedback

Not enough has changed since the last rate cut in August, most recent commentary from the RBA including from Governor Lowe has expressed a broadly neutral tone regarding rates.feedback

While the period for seasonal share market weakness (August to October) so far has passed without a major mishap, we remain cautious on shares in the short term as event risk remains high for the months ahead.feedback

Global monetary policy is set to remain easy for some time yet. Which means the broad environment (i.e. beyond short term event risks) remains positive for shares and growth assets.feedback

Seasonal September quarter weakness along with risks around Italian banks, the Fed and global growth generally could still see more volatility in shares in the short term.feedback

The Reserve Bank is clearly on a mission to avoid the near zero inflation rates that many similar countries have.feedback

Abstracting from monthly noise, jobs growth averaged a solid 147,000 a month over the last three months, telling us that the US economy is doing well.feedback

The end result will be poor prospects for getting government spending and the budget deficit under control over the next three years and for the Coalition implementing its policy to cut corporate taxes, let alone undertaking serious productivity enhancing economic reforms.feedback

But given the threat to confidence and growth from Brexit, it won't be enough to signal an imminent Fed rate hike in July.feedback

We will see shares trending higher this year helped by relatively attractive valuations, very easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate global economic growth.feedback

The week ahead will no doubt see bouts of Brexit-related nervousness but it may continue to settle down in the absence of any new developments in Europe.feedback

All of the growth in the economy is coming from trade as the third phase of the mining boom kicks in as projects start exporting.feedback

While this is not a problem for short periods, the risk is that thanks to a combination of deflationary pressures globally, soft demand domestically and very weak wages growth inflation could remain well below target for an extended period.feedback

Doubtful that the latest bout of financial and commodity market turmoil has been enough to move the RBA out of its 'chilled out' state. We remain of the view that the RBA will cut the cash rate again the months ahead.feedback

In terms of the Fed overnight: It's clear that global central banks are now starting to be concerned about the impact of global growth worries and the latest plunge in oil prices in terms of meeting their inflation targets and as a result are now starting to sound more dovish.feedback

The poor start to the year clearly warns that global growth concerns remain, that commodity prices are still under downwards pressure and that volatility in investment markets will likely remain high.feedback

I think they have done the right thing. The global economy is looking a bit shaky.feedback

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