Stacey Gilbert - Susquehanna

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Last quote by Stacey Gilbert

Unless we have shifts there, there's no reason to unwind any of the gold positions here.feedback
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Apr 18 2017
Stacey Gilbert has been quoted 36 times. The one recent article where Stacey Gilbert has been quoted is The record run for tech stocks is far from over, analysts and traders say. Most recently, Stacey Gilbert was quoted as having said, “I think it's fair to say that there are a lot of positive indicators out here in large, broad-cap tech right now.”.
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Stacey Gilbert quotes

We would make the argument that the market has shifted to be a more neutral sentiment here. We've seen a number of over-riders; this is investors basically saying, they've enjoyed the stock run here, but we see upside limited in the near-term here, and we could argue that from a valuation side, as well.feedback

That I don't think is necessarily a bad thing, and it's $6 billion [out] of gold over just about two months. That's not going to bring gold down substantially; it's those smaller outflows that have come out relative to what went into it, which is why I think you can have the price rising while the money is coming out.feedback

I don't think it's that investors are wrong; I think investors said, I only have so much capital, I thought that this was a monetary stimulus type of environment.' That has shifted. Nobody has dumped it completely from their portfolio.feedback

For example, if we look at the S&P 500, that 5 percent out of the money put is your typical put that somebody would buy for protection. It's on the 45th percentile over the last five years, and that to me is just expensive for the situation that we're in right now.feedback

As much as the volatility has come in, they are still expensive on a historic level.feedback

But a lot of that was heading into the 'Trump trade' here, if you will. The thought was, he could be very inflationary. We could have some concerns that the real rates are actually going to go negative, that everything is going to get crazier.feedback

Yes, the market hasn't really moved a lot. But when we peel back that onion, a lot has been moving. If you look at, let's say, technology, for example, that's up almost 14 percent since Brexit. So what you'd seen post-Brexit really was a move to a risk-on type of trade.feedback

You pick the sectors you like, you pick the stocks you like. And it becomes a market where you can add value when you're doing a little bit of research, not just saying, I'm going to buy the index, this is it and we're going to move up from here.feedback

So net-net, you add them up together, and you're going to get that the S&P 500 feels range-bound, but when you pull it back, there are sectors that are certainly moving and outperforming ones over the others.feedback

There is no real directional sentiment and investors seem to be less interested in the former big movers like Twitter, Tesla and Apple.feedback

If you look at how the biotech sector has been under pressure for, let's say, the past month, you've also seen the probability that the Dems could sweep, increase during this period.feedback

The big event, clearly, for the biotech space right now is the election.feedback

Over the last eight quarters, it's moved around 18 percent and over the last 4 quarters around 26 percent. It's a known mover around earnings, and I would say the options market is suggesting that it could continue to be a big mover, even this quarter.feedback

This is not a market to just buy the S&P 500 and expect it to be up on the year. In a lot of ways, those days are over. Now you have to be a lot more sophisticated in terms of picking your sectors, picking your stocks.feedback

I know we're excited about this recent rally here, the recent outperformance of the financials, and part of that is because they are so hated.feedback

I don't think these volatilities are pricing in these outlier Fed surprises.feedback

I think where options are best utilized is around an event where you disagree with what the market is saying.feedback

Any way you look at that, sentiment says that Apple could go higher.feedback

This is real volatility in Apple again, which we should all be excited about, especially because it's to the upside.feedback

I think what we've seen over the last six weeks isn't this change in the Fed – it went from a probability of 30 percent to be raising 25 basis points to somewhere around 50 percent; now, that's not a huge move.feedback

We don't see any evidence that investors are moving to the ETFs or moving to the options, looking for anything that's going to rebound quickly.feedback

Investors are more interested in protecting their gains so far.feedback

Right now, the options market is really suggesting that we're going to likely take a breather here.feedback

What we had happen with the British referendum last night was a known event, so it's come out of the market, this unknown that was being priced.feedback

If it's a stay vote it's probably 5 to 6 percent on the upside just based on where those options are being priced.feedback

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