Stephen Stanley

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Last quote by Stephen Stanley

The new administration will have an opportunity to recraft the Board in a remarkably short period of time.
Feb 10 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Stephen Stanley is associated, including Fed and November. Most recently, Stephen Stanley has been quoted saying: “The biggest thing you need is more business investment, that's the piece that's been pretty lackluster. A good tax reform program and regulatory relief done well and you could see significant improvement on the supply side.” in the article Why Donald Trump may have the recipe for a 3% economy half right. An other article where Stephen Stanley has been quoted is Wall Street awaits Trump's inauguration, but two presidents could move the markets in the week ahead.
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Stephen Stanley quotes

They're just pushing higher and higher and nobody has the conviction to stand before the freight train. At some point it will turn around, either before or after the Fed. I would argue that the level of yields we're getting into now are more consistent with where they should have been.

You don't have that countervailing force. You have Trump pounding the table that things are terrible. …that might argue for having a negative impact on people's attitudes.

There have been examples in the past where sentiment seemed to dip a bit before the election. It's not very long-lasting, and it typically it reverses after.

It's just gotten so low in the gutter as can be imagined. If other people are seeing this the way I am, it's depressing. Maybe I'm a little more bummed out than I might normally be just because of the tone of the campaign.

I don't know how much capital he would be willing to spend by trying to push her out immediately versus letting her serve out her term. He has professed a certain affinity for low rates. That would be the issue for the markets. … If not Yellen, now who is it going to be.

That makes August's clunker of a report a little hard to explain.

The underlying reality appears to be a rock solid labor market, with firms having increasing difficulty filling openings.

...The new orders and production components were both between 51 and 52, also the worst results since early 2010. The employment figure slipped by less than a point to 50.7. The text of the report notes that most comments from respondents point to a slowing in business, though none of the individual comments that were included in the report seem consistent with much more than a summer lull.

I am inclined to view it as more of a one-off than a rolling over of activity, but for those Fed officials who are having a difficult time deciding what to do at this month's meeting, all of the major August data out so far (auto sales, payrolls, both ISMs) have been noticeably weaker than expected. I'm not terribly worried about the fate of the economy, but I do feel even more comfortable today than I did a week ago calling for no Fed move in September.

Sales are not rising as much as they are capable of, but prices are rising at a faster than sustainable clip.

As I have emphasized, with the employment box checked, the key impediment to further normalization of rates is inflation, which remains well below the Fed's 2 percent target.

The worst is behind us. The outlook is significantly improved from the flat-to-down prevailing trend seen up until recently.

In any case, of the 18K increase in initial claims nationally on a not seasonally adjusted basis in the latest week, ... almost 15K comes from New York, close to doubling the number of new filers in the Empire State from one week to the next.

The story is that non-teacher school employees (bus drivers, cafeteria workers, etc.) are somehow permitted to file for unemployment when schools are closed for a week or two (your tax dollars at work). Since the timing of the breaks swings around from year to year, the seasonal adjustment process is unable to properly take this special factor into account.

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