Thomas Lee

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Last quote by Thomas Lee

The outperformance of technology is logical, reflecting the need to replace workers with automation. The losers, in our view, are those companies/sectors which are heavily reliant on labor for value-added.feedback
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Aug 11 2017
Find all of Thomas Lee’s quotes that have been published in 48 different articles on this page. Thomas Lee’s quotes are organized by date and topic, making it easy for you to compare, for example, what Thomas Lee has said both recently, and in the past, on a variety of topics. Some of the topics Thomas Lee likes to comment on include S&P and U.S.. Most recently, Thomas Lee said, “The labor market is set to tighten more dramatically than consensus realizes, a function of a demographics. Profit margins for most corporations will see a squeeze as tight labor markets lead to wage inflation ... This squeeze will create winners and losers.”.
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Thomas Lee quotes

Apr 28 2017 - Netflix

The S&P 500 has been performing considerably above our base case so far in 2017 … The reason we have been more cautious is that these expectations are diverging from fixed income and credit markets where flattening curve (10Y vs 30Y and even 10Y vs 2Y) and widening HY [high yield] spreads … signal a more cautious growth outlook.feedback

Apr 25 2017

I think my biggest concern is that the stock market is betting on an acceleration in growth this year, even at a time when corporations might take a break until they figure out what tax reform looks like, and it's coming at a time when margin debt is so high. In the past, the bond market has been much better at ferreting out problems and smelling slowdowns; that's the message from the yield curve. So I think the bond market is really taking the position that growth is going to disappoint, and the gap between the hard data and the soft data is still pretty big.feedback

Mar 31 2017

In our recent commentary, we have alluded to the growing divergences between equities and other markets – for instance, the flattening long-term yield curve, the record high distribution of PE [private equity] … the reversal of Trump rally leaders, and the weakening of high-yield prices and liquidity. In other words, relationships which reliably move in tandem with equities are diverging, but one of the key lessons (for us) in the past decade, is one can never 'tell the market' what to do.feedback

Mar 17 2017 - Wall Street

Our recommendation would be to start buying stocks that are the least liked on Wall Street right now – what we might call contrarian ideas.feedback

Mar 03 2017

Our 1H caution was predicated on a flattening yield curve and typical 'payback' seen in post-Presidential election years. But we underestimated the positive impact that a surge in 'animal spirits' to drive equity ETF inflows (4X pace of 2016) and therefore equity upside. We have 'egg on our face' but still wait for a better entry point.feedback

Mar 02 2017

The yield curve tells us what you can expect for making long-term investments. When it flattens, it's telling us that incremental returns for businesses is declining. You don't want to pay too much, even for quality. I think you can actually make some good bets on deregulation. It's really explained most of the outperformance of some of the sectors year to date.feedback

Feb 21 2017

This year we're flipping, and we actually think FANG is going to outperform the market [by] as much as 31 percent.feedback

Feb 17 2017

We are recommending investors overweight FANG in 2017, reversing our 'avoid call' made in late-2015. FANG is essentially the 'Blue chip' of internet/cloud names. Because of the sheer market value impact of these 4 stocks, FANG makes sense to look as a stand-alone sector.feedback

Feb 15 2017

I think we're entering a period where it's a policy put over a Fed put, and that's why we kind of [expect] choppier markets.feedback

Feb 15 2017

It's the cyclical stocks, and really it's been led by tech and financials, which [are] really the groups we like.feedback

Feb 08 2017

There's some policy gridlock developing. The bond market is confused. That explains what happens after an election year.feedback

Feb 07 2017

I think it's easier for investors to bet on things that you don't require acts of Congress to change. Things that can happen by executive orders are the things that are investable. That's a lot of deregulation plays. … Where's earnings growth? It's coming from the banks, energy, materials, technology, even telecoms. I think that's the easier way to make money this year.feedback

Feb 05 2017

We're going to see 10 percent plus comps later this year.feedback

Feb 05 2017

I think it's possible that we're going to have a bumpy first half. It won't be a straight shot upward for stocks. The first half, we're going to have a draw-down by 5 percent. We essential have a policy 'put' in place. It's setting the stage for earnings to be the primary driver [of markets]. That's how you're going to pick stocks and sectors. This is pretty amazing. Two quarters ago, people were talking about peak earnings and peak margins. Now, all of a sudden, people think it's mid-cycle and we have the best earnings we've seen in over two years.feedback

Feb 03 2017

We see tail winds building for the sector – higher interest rates/inflation, deregulation, pro-growth policy – all add upside to EPS and multiples.feedback

Jan 27 2017

Since election day, one of the more obvious (and appropriate) shifts in investor frameworks is the shift from the Fed put ... to the policy put (Trump is pro-growth). And with this shift, sector and style implications are notably different – favoring groups levered to higher nominal GDP, higher inflation and de-regulation. As we discussed in our 2017 outlook, we see this favoring CRAP [computers, resources, American banks, phone carriers] as well as value stocks.feedback

Jan 17 2017

We looked at close to 80 years of the performance of 164 industries. When a group severely lags, by at least 2,500 basis points or more, you almost always make money buying these things.feedback

Jan 17 2017

Since 1977, a flattening of the long-term yield curve sees equities weak over the next six months.feedback

Dec 16 2016 - Net neutrality

Moreover, as many investors are aware, telecoms and cable have suffered from 'liberal' expansion and definitions of net neutrality – hence, could benefit from a Trump administration.feedback

Dec 16 2016 - Christmas

We continue to expect the market to finish the year higher [due to] Santa Claus rally, positive inflows and improving investor optimism. In 2016, portfolio strategy' mattered more than 'market calls.' We would add to telecom exposure.feedback

Dec 16 2016

We believe telecom services may be particularly positive levered to rising inflation given it is such [a] capital intensive business with significant invested assets – hence, rising inflation raises the ROE of the embedded assets.feedback

Dec 09 2016

Recalling why 1991 shows after 8 years of a bull, you need to embrace the rotation. At end of 1991, pundits and investors were skeptical of equities – noting high P/E, lack of benefit from 11 rate cuts, IPOs – perhaps not surprising given the stagflation that marked the previous decade. But that sure sounds like today … doesn't it?feedback

Dec 08 2016

I think that the first half of 2017 could end up being pretty treacherous. It's just a fact. If you look at the first half of (the first year for) a new president, you usually see a pretty big drawdown. Three-quarters of the time it's usually almost 10 percent.feedback

Nov 25 2016

And that means – don't do consensus trades. Focus on groups that have lagged in the last seven years; that means energy, basic materials, mining, steels, [communication] equipment, industrials, tech.feedback

Nov 23 2016

Investors need to focus on laggards ... small-caps ... value – strategies we have argued all year.feedback

Nov 23 2016

Trump looks to be both an 'inflation' and 'de-regulation' president–In our view, Trump is likely a bit of both Eisenhower and Reagan. Notably, the two longest bull markets in history 1953-1974 and 1982-1999 were preceded by a Republican 'revolution'–Eisenhower (1952) brought infrastructure spend. Reagan (1980) saw tax cuts and de-regulation.feedback

Nov 23 2016

Things like corporate tax reform – investors just historically don't pay for that. So even though we think that's going to help corporate profits, it's not something that actually is going to help the stock market on a [private equity] basis.feedback

Nov 23 2016

Political events are important, but they've proven to just be buying opportunities, and I think the mistake everyone makes is they try to be positioned into the event and then they're chasing the market.feedback

Nov 23 2016

That's the 'short-termism' that really bothers me about investing. I think investors need to be thinking about the bigger stories like inflation, earnings trends.feedback

Nov 18 2016

We still see the S&P 500 rallying into YE ... rising inflation is good for stocks.feedback

Nov 18 2016 - UBS

That's the thing we have to imagine: In a normalized rate world, equity is a great business [and] stock selection makes a ton of sense.feedback

Nov 18 2016 - UBS

We've almost created a generation of people who've compensated for low interest rates by doing things like buying dividend, going into private equity, seeking leverage in order to juice up returns. It's made equity management a terrible business.feedback

Nov 18 2016 - UBS

The bigger move has been this huge rotation … into the value names, small caps, the laggards. The irony is these were all trades that were working into Election Day, so they just all got turbo-charged.feedback

Nov 09 2016

Trump victory [is] a surprise but path forward not all negative... Clinton had been the favored 'horse' in this election cycle for investors, so it is natural for markets to see Trump's win as a 'shock. We see 'negative' shock, weakness as short-lived ... a sustained and deeper sell-off can only be justified if Trump's victory leads to a U.S. recession.feedback

Nov 07 2016

I would say it's actually bullish if we end up seeing a relief rally and it really engages investors and we see capital put back to work.feedback

Oct 28 2016 - British Petroleum

Wage inflation sensitivity [is] beginning to impact stocks. Stocks with low wage sensitivity outperformed 1,590 bp [basis points] since May.feedback

Oct 26 2016

This market has gotten a little dull, shrugging off earnings. Overall, it's been actually one of the better earnings seasons. Now we finally have positive earnings growth.feedback

Oct 26 2016

The S&P, any time the high-yield market has been up 10 percent, has averaged a 22 percent gain. The stock market is only up 4 [percent].feedback

Oct 26 2016

I wonder if it's the [stronger] dollar or the election.feedback

Oct 19 2016

Poor relative performance remains a big issue for institutional investors, setting up the likelihood of a performance chase. So we are still buyers of the dip.feedback

Oct 14 2016

We see 3Q16 as a positive catalyst, marking the end of the earnings recession. The bottom line, in our view, is that we are seeing the positive turn in sales. Central to our positive stance on equities in 2016, is the view that 3Q16 would mark the turning point for earnings (oil fade, USD fade, etc.) and indeed, 3Q16 is shaping up to be a key inflection point.feedback

Oct 14 2016

With revenue growth accelerating higher, oil stabilizing, USD headwinds fading, we believe US corporates will surprise on EPS.feedback

Sep 30 2016

Investors need to buy technology stocks ... whenever sentiment [is] this negative.feedback

Sep 30 2016

Sentiment is so negative, it is at an extreme for sell-side strategists (target price) and for individual investors (AAII % bulls less bears). Strategists [are] so bearish, their S&P 500 target has zero upside.feedback

Sep 30 2016 - Deutsche Bank

If Deutsche Bank leads to a true ceasing of credit markets and credit access and liquidity then that itself, because of the effect it would have on the underlying economy, it could drive us into a recession and that would be bearish.feedback

Sep 27 2016

I don't think it's created a bubble. I think it's very scary to hear a presidential candidate, though, say … that he's going to inherit a huge bubble.feedback

Sep 23 2016

The global search for yield has driven outperformance of most dividend payers. However, we have identified several laggards with materially better dividend yields, positive fundamental outlooks, strong balance sheets, and reasonable payout ratios.feedback

Sep 19 2016

They had such leadership for the last seven years, and it's rare for stocks to continue to lead like that.feedback

Sep 19 2016

You have to remember, because people have anticipated this, I think exposure is low, and that's why there's a chance for people to do some panic buying.feedback

Sep 01 2016

Since the start of 2016, NYSE margin debt and the S&P 500 have diverged.feedback

Aug 12 2016

The equity has yet to reflect this and as we noted in the past, we believe credit leads equities.feedback

Aug 12 2016

The economic background remains supportive of growth-oriented trades, as the July payrolls, along with solid ISM readings and also recent chatter on fiscal stimulus are positive for risky assets. We are upgrading consumer discretionary to OW [overweight] from N [neutral], as we see an opportunity for this group to outperform the S&P 500 between now and year-end.feedback

Aug 11 2016 - Bull market

In 1990, bond yields stabilized ? after huge declines from '82 to '90, and there were a lot of investors who thought the bull market would run out of steam in 1990, and they missed really the 10 years of the biggest returns in the stock market.feedback

Jul 29 2016

We see 2016 as ripe for a regime shift and as such, given telecom's 4-years of consecutive underperformance, is the turn for Telcos. Between telecom stocks and utilities, as the P/E and dividend differentials have reached extremes...Telecom [is] the most logical convergence trade to utes [utilities] in 2H16.feedback

Jul 22 2016

We are scared about the month of August. A few recent developments suggest August is likely to be a down month. We are not changing our views and we remain buyers of weakness – however, for our tactically minded clients, it may make sense to fade strength and be prepared to add to weakness in August.feedback

Jul 06 2016

There's very limited supply of U.S. bonds this year. That's actually helping dividend stocks. So we like the idea of consistent dividend payers, but also value stocks.feedback

Jul 06 2016

Gold is an alternate currency. It makes a lot of sense for investors to have some exposure because there're concerns with negative rates and regime changes and Brexit and central bank uncertainty. It makes other currencies less attractive than gold.feedback

Jul 06 2016

It's hard to ignore that U.S. yields are a lot higher on an absolute basis than a lot of other countries which have less credit worthiness than the U.S. It's an argument for yields to continue to inch downwards.feedback

Jul 06 2016

There's always negative bubbles created when people get too worried.feedback

Jun 10 2016

We would be buyers of an upside breakout – in other words, we do not think this breakout attempt will fail like it did in 2015. Upside breakout will be led by small caps due to ISM export recovery.feedback

Jun 06 2016

These are all setting the stage for growth to pick up, and I don't think that's what investors are expecting. I think everyone's worried about 'Brexit' and the Fed.feedback

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