Thomas Simons - Jefferies

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Last quote by Thomas Simons

I'm not overly shaken by that Empire number. I think [industrial production is] going to be a fair-to-middling number.feedback
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May 15 2017 Oil
Thomas Simons has been quoted 47 times. The one recent article where Thomas Simons has been quoted is Economy rebounding but maybe more muted after retail sales, consumer inflation. Most recently, Thomas Simons was quoted as having said, “The thing that's really disappointing is after a bad number in March we only got a return to trend instead of a compensatory increase. The recent FOMC statement suggests the Fed is not going to be deterred by modest weakness in data. At this point, they kind of point out that it's going to be around the target, and it could be below.”.
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Thomas Simons quotes

Since that meeting, we've seen some pretty spicy CPI numbers, and we're probably going to see a pretty decent PCE deflator as well. I think there's a lot of good arguments for raising rates in March. The only argument against it is they haven't expressly told us they're going to. It seems to me the discourse among regional bank presidents at this time and the chatter about March is a little bit more cohesive than the warning shots they've given us in the past that proved to be red herrings.feedback

This week is very busy ... we have a packed data calendar. I think that may lead to a bit of a malaise to start the week here ... there isn't a lot to get going on yet.feedback

The Treasury market in the beginning of the day was moving against stocks. I suspected there would be more of a reaction when the Mexican president canceled the meeting. … If you combine going after currency manipulators with really disrespecting the Mexican president, such that he wants to cancel a meeting, to me means we are already starting the trade war and that makes sense for Treasurys to rally. … It's not even a week yet.feedback

Trump is much more important than the data. The data has really consistently been telling us the same story. It's always interesting to see the first cut of GDP. It looks like it's going to be a reasonable quarter. We have 2.5 percent, a little stronger than the consensus.feedback

After the weekend and Monday, it's going to be very interesting. What happens when we get to brass tacks will be interesting for sure.feedback

Next week we'll have 2-, 5- and 7-year auctions, a little bit of supply, and a light data week, so the focus is going to be on Trump, and for the most part, the first stuff that comes out of the gate is probably going to be (bond) market negative and it will be risk positive.feedback

I don't think we're going to see a huge surge in optimism again. We're not going to get another leg off of it, but I also don't think we're going to go back to where we were in October.feedback

…Prices are starting to go up. That's had an impact going up the chain. I think that was the message we go from that today.feedback

Janet Yellen said some members built fiscal stimulus into their forecasts. She didn't say how many there were and what it means. How do they look at 2017? How do they view the risks given the new administration and what does that mean for policy response? That was the biggest question I had coming out of the last meeting.feedback

Buyside investors were willing to shoulder the load from the dealers, who had limited available balance sheet ahead of year-end.feedback

Since the election, market sentiment has strongly favored a steeper curve. However the move is not going to progress in a straight line, and today was evidence to that effect.feedback

We've got a week's worth of data in one day. The one I'm most interested in is University of Michigan consumer sentiment. That had been pretty decent in recent months, and when they talked about the details they showed most of the improvement in the outlook was in the higher income families.feedback

You get the minutes at 2 o'clock for whoever is left. They made it pretty clear in November that we were close to a hike, and I think [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen sealed the deal when she went before the [Joint Economic Committee] saying the election didn't have an impact on the outlook.feedback

I'd like to hear a clear signal that we're going to get a rate hike in December and the outlook. But things are going to be so politically charged that it's hard to know if we're going to get any useful information out of it. I think Republicans will be galvanized by the win and the fact they are at the helm now.feedback

Meanwhile, the Democrats are going to try to be picking apart Trump's economic plan just because this is the forum to do that.feedback

At 8:30 [a.m.], you get CPI, housing starts, Philly Fed and claims. All of that is 30 minutes after we get the text of Yellen's speech too.feedback

Nothing changes until it becomes clear that (Trump's) policies are impossible to get through Congress or he backs off of those policies. But that's a story for early next year, not next week.feedback

I think there's more to go. I think we've topped out as far as the value of bonds.feedback

Tomorrow's bond auction could be even more interesting. They might face more digestion issue.feedback

Clinton has been ahead of Trump since June when they first began asking the question, but the lead increased somewhat in October. With regard to which candidate is viewed as being better for the economy, Clinton narrowly edged Trump, but the majority of consumers responded that the outcome of the election made no difference.feedback

The most likely outcome is inconclusive. Each of them have their own points they make and in the end, both of them come up damaged to some extent. I don't really see an outcome where one comes out cleaner than the other because they're both going for blood.feedback

There's a lot to process next week. We have a lot of Fed speakers too. Usually the week after the FOMC meeting, we're kind of left thinking they're going to explain themselves. But there really isn't much to explain this time. I was pretty clear they want to hike once this year and two times in each of the next two years. I feel like it's going to be a lot of headlines nobody cares about.feedback

I think personal income and spending data on Friday is probably the most important release. I think the tone for the August data was soft and we'll continue to see more soft August data release, but I don't think it's a real concerning sign for the economy. I think it was kind of an off-month. The weather was very bad. It was excessively hot in most states and there were all those floods in the south.feedback

The thing that really stinks is this week is so light on data, there's not really anything to change the tone.feedback

It is not a compelling number for the Fed and it is not going to force their hand for a hike in September.feedback

It's broadly consistent with the message we got with the (July) statement, which is that, by acknowledging that near-term risks have diminished, it was an ever-so-slight and incremental step towards signaling a rate hike at some point. But the timing of that is still indeterminate.feedback

We're loathe to be vague about our call but right now it doesn't makes sense to make a specific call because right now the Fed doesn't know how things are going to play out or what they're going to do in response.feedback

We're in an environment where yield doesn't matter. It's all about price. That's how you can rationalize the negative yield curves in Europe too. Not that I think the long-end (U.S.) yields will get anywhere near those levels.feedback

The front end of the market had been illiquid. Now it's a lot worse.feedback

Our conviction has declined significantly since this morning. We had thought that we were on track for a rate hike in June, but the employment data this morning pretty much takes a rate hike off the table. It's not impossible, but it seems very unlikely.feedback

Hawks and doves have been saying the same thing for the last two weeks and that would apply to Yellen.feedback

They've gotten to another derivative of Fed communications. Now, they're trying to anticipate market reactions and get ahead of them.feedback

It's going to be what happens overnight with the currencies…The home sales data is important but I feel like after this week, everyone's trying to get their head around what's going on with the Fed.feedback

I think that people are pretty well comfortable with the domestic data and the Brexit thing is something that's going to be hard to get any handle on until right when it's going to the polls.feedback

We got some pretty surprising GDP data, an upward revision, and not too many people had pegged that.feedback

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