Timothy Ash


Last quote by Timothy Ash

Consensus is Erdogan wins (the referendum) and ... markets stabilise thereafter as the regime looks to get back to business as usual.
Mar 02 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Timothy Ash is associated, including Ukraine, Turkey, and re-escalation. Most recently, Timothy Ash has been quoted saying: “Consensus is Erdogan wins (the referendum) and ... markets stabilise thereafter as the regime looks to get back to business as usual.” in the article EMERGING MARKETS-Dollar, politics, push Turkish lira 1 percent lower.
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Timothy Ash quotes

While polls show United Russia doing okay (60 percent support), Putin never likes to take chances with domestic politics. (He) will want to impress on the Russian electorate his own strength and how lucky they are to be Russian citizens as perhaps compared to their Ukrainian counterparts.

The move to junk would be a subjective decision, based on assumptions on institutional strength, post coup, not really on objective criteria.

Net-net, if Russia responds by lifting the ban on Russian tourists visiting Turkey, this will be positive for Turkey. It kind of also shows Erdogan to be pragmatic.

This might be a Turkish reaction to Brexit, and the assumption that the EU, and the EU accession anchor will now weaken, and that Turkey needs to make up with its neighbors.

In a way there is a window for reform at present in Ukraine, which I guess the IMF is eager to push along while it still has leverage.

Given the huge opaqueness and quality of data issues is a mega problem. Indeed, from that perspective, quality of data,' the rating likely should be lower in any event.

This has nothing to do with inflation – with the economy failing to fire, the central bank should be cutting rates.

I would expect the Turkish authorities, particularly the central bank, to be active in re-assuring investors. For the central bank, the problem is that the lira was weak last week on global market concerns.

Ukraine's room for negotiation has suddenly shrunk quite considerably.

The danger with this totally out-of-the-box move is that investors will seriously begin to question the credibility of the central bank as an institution, given that foreign investors' prime concern at present on Turkey are fears of overheating as reflected in the current account deficit.

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