Timothy Ash

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Last quote by Timothy Ash

This looks like a really serious situation.feedback
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Oct 08 2017 Turkey
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Timothy Ash is associated, including Ukraine, Turkey, and re-escalation. Most recently, Timothy Ash has been quoted saying: “Danylyuk is a key anchor in terms of reforms. He's likely trodden on a few people's toes.” in the article Corruption Battle Roils Ukraine.
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Timothy Ash quotes

Mar 29 2017 - South Africa

Fair to say that if Zuma manages to successfully remove Gordhan it would produce a seismic and very negative move in South African markets, ratings et al. It would suggest ... a more aggressive and confiscatory black empowerment agenda.feedback

Mar 02 2017

Consensus is Erdogan wins (the referendum) and ... markets stabilise thereafter as the regime looks to get back to business as usual.feedback

Feb 16 2017 - Sanctions

More likely the Trump administration will have to bow to the established Russia view in Washington, which will more likely mean accepting more hawkish (on Russia) members into the administration, to assure Congress and likely forestalling likely damaging investigations into the administrations' Russia links. The administration can chose to fight all this, but its broader policy reform agenda will surely suffer as a result if it so chooses. Trump will need to be clever in picking his fights, and this is unlikely to be one he should wish to get pulled into.feedback

Jan 31 2017

(It's) kind of the problem, creates a lack of transparency and the market is left trying to figure out whether policy is tight or loose, and how long that is likely to last.feedback

Sep 26 2016 - South Africa

This seems perverse given the political/policy setting in South Africa, (and) worse ratios over Turkey.feedback

Sep 26 2016

Now it is out of the way, one risk factor has been removed. Proves there is life in junk bond status - as Russia, Hungary, Croatia, et al will tell.feedback

Sep 22 2016 - Russia

Moscow will be eager through this tap to send a message that it can still finance itself in the market – circumventing or eroding the impact of Western sanctions.feedback

Sep 22 2016 - US, Russia relations

The lack of Euroclearability was the key factor last time around which kept foreign bidders on the sidelines and that seems to have been significantly underpinned by Russia-related entities.feedback

Aug 15 2016 - Ukraine Crisis

The question is what more info the Ukrainian authorities have on Manafort's time in Ukraine, and how damaging any of this is for the Trump campaign.feedback

Aug 12 2016 - Crimea

Putin never likes to take chances with domestic politics, and will want to impress on the Russian electorate his own strength, and how lucky they are to be Russians citizens, as perhaps compared to their Ukrainian counterparts.feedback

Aug 12 2016 - Ukraine Crisis

How better to provide a distraction therein than through a re-escalation on the ground in Crimea/Donbas, allowing Russians and Ukrainians to question what has been gained from independence by Ukraine.feedback

Aug 12 2016 - Ukraine Crisis

So perhaps this latest re-escalation is a warning to the Poroshenko administration not to cross red lines. In the past, military re-escalation in the East has worked to destabilize the macro economy in Ukraine...There may thus be a desire to go back to past proven policies and to try and weaken the comparative Ukrainian economic performance.feedback

Aug 11 2016 - Russia

While polls show United Russia doing okay (60 percent support), Putin never likes to take chances with domestic politics. (He) will want to impress on the Russian electorate his own strength and how lucky they are to be Russian citizens as perhaps compared to their Ukrainian counterparts.feedback

Aug 05 2016

The move to junk would be a subjective decision, based on assumptions on institutional strength, post coup, not really on objective criteria.feedback

Jun 27 2016

Net-net, if Russia responds by lifting the ban on Russian tourists visiting Turkey, this will be positive for Turkey. It kind of also shows Erdogan to be pragmatic.feedback

Jun 27 2016

This might be a Turkish reaction to Brexit, and the assumption that the EU, and the EU accession anchor will now weaken, and that Turkey needs to make up with its neighbors.feedback

May 19 2016 - Ukraine Crisis

In a way there is a window for reform at present in Ukraine, which I guess the IMF is eager to push along while it still has leverage.feedback

Mar 31 2016

Given the huge opaqueness and quality of data issues is a mega problem. Indeed, from that perspective, quality of data,' the rating likely should be lower in any event.feedback

Jul 25 2014

This has nothing to do with inflation – with the economy failing to fire, the central bank should be cutting rates.feedback

Jun 03 2013

I would expect the Turkish authorities, particularly the central bank, to be active in re-assuring investors. For the central bank, the problem is that the lira was weak last week on global market concerns.feedback

Jan 28 2013

Ukraine's room for negotiation has suddenly shrunk quite considerably.feedback

Aug 04 2011

The danger with this totally out-of-the-box move is that investors will seriously begin to question the credibility of the central bank as an institution, given that foreign investors' prime concern at present on Turkey are fears of overheating as reflected in the current account deficit.feedback

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