Timothy Ash

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Last quote by Timothy Ash

The call will be greatly appreciated by Erdogan who took great exception to the (Barack) Obama administration and its failure to do enough to support him in/around last year's coup.feedback
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Apr 18 2017 Trump Presidency
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Timothy Ash is associated, including Ukraine, Turkey, and re-escalation. Most recently, Timothy Ash has been quoted saying: “Investors at present want to be long emerging markets risk. This could support South African markets at least in the short term, and even encourage the rating agencies to give the country another get out of jail card.” in the article South Africa’s currency sinks as new finance minister eyes ‘radical economic transformation’.
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Timothy Ash quotes

Putin never likes to take chances with domestic politics, and will want to impress on the Russian electorate his own strength, and how lucky they are to be Russians citizens, as perhaps compared to their Ukrainian counterparts.feedback

How better to provide a distraction therein than through a re-escalation on the ground in Crimea/Donbas, allowing Russians and Ukrainians to question what has been gained from independence by Ukraine.feedback

So perhaps this latest re-escalation is a warning to the Poroshenko administration not to cross red lines. In the past, military re-escalation in the East has worked to destabilize the macro economy in Ukraine...There may thus be a desire to go back to past proven policies and to try and weaken the comparative Ukrainian economic performance.feedback

While polls show United Russia doing okay (60 percent support), Putin never likes to take chances with domestic politics. (He) will want to impress on the Russian electorate his own strength and how lucky they are to be Russian citizens as perhaps compared to their Ukrainian counterparts.feedback

The move to junk would be a subjective decision, based on assumptions on institutional strength, post coup, not really on objective criteria.feedback

Net-net, if Russia responds by lifting the ban on Russian tourists visiting Turkey, this will be positive for Turkey. It kind of also shows Erdogan to be pragmatic.feedback

This might be a Turkish reaction to Brexit, and the assumption that the EU, and the EU accession anchor will now weaken, and that Turkey needs to make up with its neighbors.feedback

In a way there is a window for reform at present in Ukraine, which I guess the IMF is eager to push along while it still has leverage.feedback

Given the huge opaqueness and quality of data issues is a mega problem. Indeed, from that perspective, quality of data,' the rating likely should be lower in any event.feedback

This has nothing to do with inflation – with the economy failing to fire, the central bank should be cutting rates.feedback

I would expect the Turkish authorities, particularly the central bank, to be active in re-assuring investors. For the central bank, the problem is that the lira was weak last week on global market concerns.feedback

Ukraine's room for negotiation has suddenly shrunk quite considerably.feedback

The danger with this totally out-of-the-box move is that investors will seriously begin to question the credibility of the central bank as an institution, given that foreign investors' prime concern at present on Turkey are fears of overheating as reflected in the current account deficit.feedback

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