Todd Gordon

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Last quote by Todd Gordon

The problem is [oil has] spent a lot of time consolidating around this $52 to $55 area now. You can see how the rally back in this stock has been less significant than that of the crude oil market. Further, we've already broken uptrend support, so the oil services are actually outperforming the underlying crude futures on the downside.feedback
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Apr 28 2017 Oil
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Todd Gordon is associated, including Fed and November. Most recently, Todd Gordon has been quoted saying: “The problem is [oil has] spent a lot of time consolidating around this $52 to $55 area now. You can see how the rally back in this stock has been less significant than that of the crude oil market. Further, we've already broken uptrend support, so the oil services are actually outperforming the underlying crude futures on the downside.” in the article Crude is very close to doing something bad, says technical analyst.
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Todd Gordon quotes

We look to be breaking a range in Tesla, and it looks like with this next leg up in the bull market, Tesla can get us done. Options markets are pricing a 68 percent chance that Tesla will be between $317 and $240 at the expiration of the [May options] we're looking at.feedback

We're going to put a $9.60 stop-loss on the premium we just paid on those 10-call options, so if we break below $9.60 [on the USO], let's cut the trade. Otherwise, we should be able to go up and re-test those mid-$50s in crude oil.feedback

We are looking for continued higher gold prices on the back of a pretty dovish Fed.feedback

It doesn't matter how low gold might fall – if we're wrong in this trade, max loss would be $91 per options spread.feedback

We're in a period of consolidation here, and it looks like we have formed resistance on the top side that we can lean against to establish those shorts.feedback

As you expected, gold and bonds were sold off because those are generally safe-haven markets.feedback

The gold market has rallied up into resistance, and I think offering a nice opportunity to establish shorts. We've sat here at a little pullback, but it looks like the dollar has found support and is ready to continue higher, which is going to help that gold market push lower.feedback

It's either going to be a Fed that's going to be much more accommodative for much longer than we thought, and that's why we're seeing the dollar sell off with gold and bonds rallying.feedback

The market has already broken the recent range [and] has settled in what we call kind of a bull flag, which is a short-term move against the established trend before we eventually resume [moving higher].feedback

Markets are taking this as a sign that this protectionism is quite real; markets are selling off.feedback

You can see we have a really nice sort of bull flag that's formed following the gap up in earnings.feedback

Being that implied volatility is so expensive here, we'll receive fairly decent premium for the sale of the 100-puts.feedback

We're starting to see the bond market and the gold market rally up into Inauguration Day as the stock market is acting a little weak up here.feedback

It looks like we're going to try to pierce up through this resistance level just at about $123, and we're focusing in on this little gap up here just around the $130 mark.feedback

I don't know if we're going to get up that high into inauguration, but let's play a move up through this resistance on an approach of that gap close.feedback

If it gets down to 30 cents, in terms of premium remaining, the trade goes against us, let's cut the trade and move on.feedback

We've seen [Alphabet] as well as the other tech stocks start to re-emerge as the market leaders in here. It looks like with the tech strength that we have, we should be able to poke through and make new highs.feedback

We've seen a bit of a snapback here in the market and I think this little pullback is an opportunity to sell near term for a continued push lower.feedback

The dollar's had an amazing run to the top side on the back of the Fed beginning to normalize interest rates.feedback

We just saw some existing home sales data that was the best since February 2007, just before the stock market collapse based on the housing market. So a company like Home Depot should certainly benefit from this housing market.feedback

We have interest rates that are continuing to press higher. [This] will help [banks'] net interest margins, which will help increase their profitability.feedback

I like the bottoming formation in crude, but I think better opportunity rests in trading in the actual energy stocks.feedback

If the Fed hikes, and they most likely will, and don't deliver any sort of concrete information as to when they're going to hike again, you could see the dollar sell off and the gold market rally.feedback

Statistically speaking, since 1990, December will finish positive 74 percent of the time.feedback

We've seen really strong moves in the financials and industrials, which are all very well-represented inside of the small caps.feedback

Why would you risk $60 to make $40? Because we're selling puts that are 80 cents below the market… so we have a higher probability of success.feedback

I like the setup, so I'm going to take it through the OPEC meeting.feedback

We're shorting puts that are below the market, so we're already in a position that is in a profitable situation. And if volatility drops off, that volatility will continue to come into account.feedback

We're seeing a pretty good area of support that's been in play for the last two years, and it looks like it's a good idea to take the other side of this trade.feedback

The for-ex flows like to come in where there are higher rates of return available, which right now, that is in the U.S. strengthening the dollar.feedback

If the premium, the value of the options spread drops by half, under 25 cents, let's go ahead and cut the trade and contain the risk.feedback

Fundamentals and inter-market analysis of the banks look solid.feedback

Couple that with oil prices that are struggling around the $50 region and a stock market that I believe is very overbought, all those forces could press EWW lower.feedback

We're selling a call spread that is several dollars above the current price, so we have a high probability of success. That is what we pick up in exchange for the skewed reward to risk ratio.feedback

You don't want to buy calls, which is also a bullish bet, because those calls based on the implied volatility are overvalued, so it's better to be selling the expensive puts.feedback

It looks like we could continue to press higher following the report on Nov. 2.feedback

Into an uncertain event like earnings, implied volatility will increase because the expected movement is very high.feedback

The dollar is threatening to break the range that's been in place since March 2015 as we're moving into a series of potential interest rate increases, which makes that U.S. dollar more attractive overseas.feedback

We can see that the euro is in quite a nice downtrend already, so we expect to see this trend bringing us down to about the 103 mark.feedback

It's a stock that's just been underperforming for months and heading into earnings on November 3. I think Starbucks is finally ready to punch through pretty critical support levels.feedback

Health care has been an underperforming sector SPDR, and today it seems like they want to punch through.feedback

We have a couple factors suggesting that emerging markets, along with domestic markets, can continue to press higher.feedback

If the market were to go back above $124, the recent range of the last two days, I'm going to [get out of the trade].feedback

We have an attractive risk-to-reward ratio.feedback

While we're above the $124 mark here in the GLD, I think it's a buy and we could move out of the range in the gold market.feedback

What we want to do is buy some in-the-money calls and have basically a long stock position but use the options market's leverage.feedback

It looks like we want to go back up and retest the pre-credit crisis highs right around mid-2007.feedback

We've broken from the 2010 [high] to the 2016 [high] right at about the $30 mark.feedback

I believe the Fed's mission is to keep volatility as low as possible heading into that November election. I think it spells flat interest rates, a lower dollar and a higher gold market.feedback

If GLD were to simply break below this low, about $124.50, we're going to get out of the trade and protect premium that we've outlaid.feedback

In this kind of market, which is low volatility, I don't think it's a good idea to wait to get to the breakout point and then try to play the push through. I think it's a good idea to trade up to the decision point, and if the market continues to break out, maybe we can take profits and hold onto a piece for the ride.feedback

We have technical support from two different trend lines right at about the $210 region. So if you like the fundamental story with Tesla, this technical setup offers a pretty good opportunity to be in on the long side.feedback

You could potentially risk $10 to $12 on this trade to make possibly a break out towards the range. As we scale back, that ultimate range breakout should be able to take you up towards that $300 mark.feedback

If XLP moves back above the $55 mark, I want to cut the trade, protect any premium that's remaining, and move on to the next trade. But otherwise, we should be able to go down to the $53 in the face of a potentially increasing interest rate once this Fed ping-pong match is over.feedback

The sectors that are responding the most are those interest rate sensitive sectors.feedback

Right now, it looks like the markets are starting to price in a Fed rate hike. If interest rates move up, that means the interest rate-sensitive sectors like XLP should move to the downside.feedback

You're seeing that inverse relationship between the bond market kick in, and I think bonds are right on the edge of a drop, indicating we might have an increase in interest rates here.feedback

We're trying to get from point A to point B. We're not trying to hit a home run here and call the end of a 35-year uptrend in the bond market; we're just trying to go to [the] next zone of technical support.feedback

They say don't sell a quiet market, but I'm very much on guard for a reversal out of this uptrend channel in the Russell.feedback

We've broken recent resistance that will now act as support around the $290 mark in IBB. I'm going to be looking at trades on the long side in these two ETFs to break the broader S&P 500 out of the consolidation.feedback

As a hedge, if you are long markets and you want to get a safety trade on, I want to go ahead and put on a long FXY trade.feedback

The Japanese yen is a very important market to indicate global risk appetite. The relationship we need to focus on as a U.S. investor or a global investor is a weakening yen is good for global stock markets.feedback

I think it's time now to hedge [our portfolio] as we become very overbought in the stock market. I see the bond market, specifically TLT, which is the ETF that tracks 20-year U.S. Treasurys and longer, pulling back into support.feedback

Basically what we're doing is selling puts below support, which is a net long position in the bond market, which will serve as a hedge to your long stock portfolio.feedback

We'd expect to see a little bit of a move down. Then if the stock market becomes overbought, we begin to pull back because we're heading into a huge earnings week. We could see the TLT begin to push higher.feedback

If the trade moves too much below that short strike around $27, let's get out of the trade and salvage any premium that we can.feedback

If this stock market break is for real, we should be able to get down and test lower levels in the bond market.feedback

The Nasdaq daily chart has been in a long-term consolidation, and I'll define that consolidation coming from late 2015 if we draw a trend line through all major significant highs. We're looking at implied volatility to the QQQ, and you can see implied volatility down at about 13 or 14. Options are very cheap because volatility is very low, so let's use this opportunity of cheap options pricing to get some upside exposure.feedback

The greater the expected price movement over some kind of event, the more expensive puts and calls become because the greater the chance that strikes will become in the money.feedback

This is the week of potential Brexit, and markets are pricing in high degrees of volatility, specifically in the macro markets like bonds and commodities and currencies.feedback

We can take advantage of this implied volatility that is very expensive.feedback

All the higher beta names you'd like to see leading in a global market are not.feedback

We would like to sell this expensive implied volatility. We can see that the UUP as we [look longer term] has made a higher low looking to break out of downtrend resistance.feedback

Falling bond yields and interest rates will hurt the earnings capability of the financials due to their net interest margins, which is basically borrowing in the short term, lending in the long term.feedback

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