Ward McCarthy - Jefferies


Last quote by Ward McCarthy

I think you should look at the two [months] combined which gives you a pretty solid, steady state. Both the September and October numbers were too storm damaged to put a whole lot of weight on them. From a big picture standpoint, these numbers largely met what I expected. I think we'll see them revert back to trend with the release of the November report next month.feedback
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Nov 03 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ward McCarthy is associated, including Fed, September, and market. Most recently, Ward McCarthy has been quoted saying: “We just had a lot of people drop out of the labor force. The size of the labor force fell 765,000...It looks to me like a lot of seasonal workers probably fell out this month, and that explains the participation rate.” in the article Hurricane-damaged jobs number won't sway the Fed from rate hike.
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Ward McCarthy quotes

Sep 15 2017 - Amazon

One possible, at least logical, explanation is that the 1.8 percent rise in July non-store retail sales was boosted by the July 11 Amazon Prime Day, so the apparent ensuing weakness is a return to a more normal sales activity post the Prime Day sales.feedback

Aug 28 2017

That would cause a brief spurt of activity, but it's the beginning of a long weekend and people will be closing up shop early.feedback

Aug 15 2017

The bottom line on this data release is that consumer spending has perked up.feedback

Aug 15 2017

Over the past year, retail sales have been boosted most by auto-related sales as well as sales of furniture, nonstore retailers and building materials, but there have also been solid increases in food and beverage sales, health and personal care, products and gasoline station sales. Clothing sales have been close to flat, while electronics and department store sales have declined in nominal terms.feedback

Aug 10 2017

It's been awhile since we had an upside surprise in inflation.feedback

Aug 10 2017

I think when the dust settles we'll see CPI stabilize in a 1.5 to 2 percent range and start creeping higher. On the goods side, inflation tend to run with import prices and import prices tend to move with commodity prices. Now we have a period of weak dollar and commodity prices moved higher. Import prices should pick up and flip into CPI.feedback

Jul 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think this has caused some consternation not just with Janet Yellen but with other people at the Fed, as well. It does look like it's going to slow down the normalization process.feedback

Jul 14 2017

This has been a bewildering week as far as the message from the Fed is concerned. I think these inflation numbers have rattled their case somewhat. Janet Yellen's description of inflation changed from idiosyncratic to unusual. I think she had a handle on what this CPI number was going to be.feedback

Jul 07 2017 - Federal Reserve

The Fed has made it very clear their focus is not that narrow. Yes, the Fed would like to see wage growth accelerate…the average hourly earnings is not going to change their view on inflation. [Janet] Yellen and Bill Dudley and the minutes made it clear they have dismissed the transitory factors that are subduing inflation.feedback

Jun 14 2017

It means nothing for today, but if we don't see both the economy and inflation numbers firm up over the course of the summer, it will make it more difficult for them to pursue what seems to be their quest for a third rate hike this year.feedback

May 31 2017

The market is starting to focus on Friday and the employment numbers, which should look pretty good once again, but then move onto the CPI which should look like another sluggish number. You'd have to get near catastrophic numbers for employment and the CPI to get the Fed to hold off raising rates at that meeting.feedback

May 24 2017

They're not going to explicitly say we think we're going to raise in June. They were somewhat dismissive of the inflation picture which would be the primary impediment to a June rate hike.feedback

May 05 2017

Just as February strength was weather-related, March weakness was weather-related, and the solid April number was a return to normal. Q1 has tended to be the weak quarter, not only this cycle but going tack to 1990. How does this figure for the Fed? I think it just keeps them on track which seems to be their preferred 2017 timetable with rate hikes in June and September.feedback

May 03 2017 - Trump Presidency

There's two ways of looking at Treasury financing, and it all has to start with what the Treasury needs. The Treasury needs money so a 50-year zero coupon would make no sense for them. If they're going to offer a 50-year, it's going to be a full bond.feedback

May 03 2017 - Trump Presidency

Treasury is already issuing the securities they find to be most appealing. The reason they are considering other options is they have no choice. They need to do this in order to address a tidal wave of increased financing from budget deficits, the Fed shrinking its balance sheet and maybe from Trump tax cuts and infrastructure spending.feedback

May 02 2017 - Easter

This has been ongoing since Q4 of last year, where the upward momentum just petered out. It does seem like credit has tightened up somewhat, and of course you had both Easter and Passover in April, which is unusual. That could have been a factor. The bottom line is the upward trend in light vehicle sales peaked. Going forward light vehicle sales are not likely to contribute to trend growth. They'll be a factor in month-to-month changes in retail sales.feedback

Apr 28 2017

The Q1 conundrum strikes again. It's not a good number. The swing factor tends to be net exports, and inventories once again were mixed, but detracted from growth overall. Consumer spending was a lot weaker.feedback

Apr 28 2017

The inflation numbers accelerated, but they still remain moderate. It supports the contention that the Fed is attaining its objective on the inflation side.feedback

Apr 28 2017

We've been here before on Q1. Looking at the detail of consumer spending, it's not going to be repeated in Q2. It's primarily durables. ... You had fourth quarter consumer durable spending up 11.4 percent. In Q1, it was down 2.5 percent.feedback

Apr 12 2017 - Federal Reserve

His position on Yellen has changed a lot since he was candidate Trump. Now that he's President Trump, a low interest rate policy is not so bad because he wants the economy to grow well. A big focus of President Trump's objectives is trade and consequently he just doesn't want a dollar that's too strong. It's going to hurt the U.S. trade position.feedback

Apr 07 2017

The March data is screwy. Yes it is showing a Trump bump and one of the most interesting things to me is since the election one of the striking pieces of information in the household survey has been the participation rate for low skilled workers, people with less than a high school degree. That's part of the whole story related to increased optimism.feedback

Apr 07 2017

It's a pretty favorable picture that we're doing this well without showing any significant signs of generating wage cost inflation.feedback

Apr 04 2017

The ADP will give us some sense of whether that's likely to happen on Friday.feedback

Mar 20 2017

Right now, it's hard to say what's going to capture the market's attention. The market has put last week's hike in the Fed funds rate in a positive light. I think part of the reason the market response has been positive was [the Fed is] not going to four rate hikes.feedback

Mar 20 2017

This market's just waiting to get through all this drivel, all that has to happen before they start negotiating tax cuts, and frankly health care is obviously the first item on the list., but the only reason health care matters from the market's standpoint is it's an obstacle to tax cuts.feedback

Mar 10 2017

We have a date with a rate hike. This is pure muscle across the board. The bond market was fearing the worst and didn't get it.feedback

Mar 09 2017

Higher inflation has not been a good thing in the past for equity markets, as performance generally weakens as inflation rises. A faster pace of rising inflation could bring about more rate hikes, which also weakens returns. As inflation ticks higher, small, mid, and large [cap companies] tend to weaken and vice versa. Inflation heading higher means that interest rates should also rise, and thus valuations for equities falls.feedback

Feb 15 2017

Up to this point, inflation had been creeping higher, but the pace is clearly accelerating. The acceleration in the inflation picture along with the continued strong performance of the consumer sector opens the door and increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates as soon as March.feedback

Feb 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

She's being more balanced rather than overwhelmingly dovish and consequentially means it's broadly hawkish.feedback

Feb 03 2017

Part of the wage story was this was a bad bonus year.feedback

Feb 03 2017

The good news was payrolls were muscular, but the bad news was average hourly earnings only grew 0.1 percent. From the Fed's standpoint, this reduces the urgency to push the button.feedback

Feb 02 2017

The [jobs] whisper number is probably above 170,000. That seems to be above consensus call because of ADP, but I think there's a realization that the economic data is taking a back seat to what's going on in Washington. This is usually the honeymoon period, but it's been more like a divorce. What puzzles me is [Trump's] doing everything in reverse order than I thought he would. I thought the warm and fuzzy stuff would come first, get the tax cuts and let everyone submit their list on what infrastructure is wanted.feedback

Feb 02 2017

I'm looking at 190,000 based on the magnitude of the increase in ADP, combined with the rebound in small firm hiring. I think there's some upside risk to that. Now they're back in the show me mode.feedback

Feb 02 2017

The weather wasn't that bad, so the things that would be most likely to make this month weak should not be factors. Since December's number was kind of mediocre, that should limit the downside.feedback

Jan 25 2017

At this point, the Trump trade had a good run. The people who had it on took some profits and now they're kind of waiting in the wings to see if they should jump back in again.feedback

Jan 25 2017

I think we're in a seesaw pattern. A lot of people played the Trump trade well into December or even early January and then took profits on it, and in many cases they see this as a potential opportunity. If stocks did have a break out, it would put more pressure on bonds. I think both markets are going to be in range mode until something signals them to break one way or the other.feedback

Jan 25 2017

Quite frankly, some of the stuff I don't understand. It doesn't help his credibility but it's going to take a while before we figure out his MO. You also haven't made a lot of money if you sold Donald Trump short. It's like when I was a hockey coach. I'm watching the other team warm up, trying to learn from that how they are … I think we can get the big picture by just looking at his appointees. Mostly CEOs. We are now USA LLC with Donald Trump as the CEO and chief negotiator.feedback

Jan 06 2017

Inflation is already on the way. We've seen inflation go from zero to 1.4 percent in 16 months.feedback

Jan 06 2017

We'll be looking at 2.5 percent in the third quarter. You're going to go above the Fed's target in 2017 by half a percentage point.feedback

Dec 14 2016

The new president elect and the congress have to execute on the stimulus proposals, and as that happens, it will start to have ripple effects on growth and inflation forecasts.feedback

Dec 14 2016

There's no mention of fiscal stimulus, so today's rate hike and the expectation for three next year – which is an increase of one hike – all reflects cumulative progress and expected progress against the dual mandate.feedback

Dec 02 2016 - Unemployment

Average hourly earnings is disappointing. The drop in the unemployment rate – this is the best of the cycle. You had a huge drop in the level of unemployment and an increase in employment. They're saying things are improving.feedback

Nov 29 2016

It seems the bond market has settled in with rates, at least for the time being. The market is comfortable with it. The stock market still has stars in its eyes.feedback

Nov 09 2016

Frankly, you don't know what he's going to do. He's an unpredictable character, and politicians say a lot of things in elections that never come to fruition. The tone of his campaign initially was very negative with his focus on immigration and trade, and became more positive with the focus on infrastructure and tax cuts. Trump is coming in defining his legacy it. He literally wants to build it.feedback

Nov 09 2016

When you look at Trump's fiscal package – he's Reagan plus infrastructure spending. He's basically faster growth, bigger budget deficits and this probably will give us inflation.feedback

Nov 04 2016

It's good data, the fastest wage growth we've seen this entire cycle. The Fed should have gone this week ... they are well on their way to their objective, and this data is just the latest in a number of data releases that should compel them to get on with it.feedback

Nov 02 2016 - Federal Reserve

It would have been bad for (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen if you had two consecutive meetings with three dissents. It looks like there was probably some kind of agreement on the language and he backed away.feedback

Nov 02 2016

I think they expect to go. I think they want to go, but they're still very skittish. We could see another employment pothole like we did in May, but I don't think that's going to happen. They may be concerned about the reaction to the election.feedback

Oct 25 2016

It could create a little volatility. The market is ho-hum ... so what if the Fed raises 25 basis points. What the market is more interested in is this mixed and muddled message that you're getting from all central banks that maybe they don't want the yield curve as flat as it is.feedback

Oct 25 2016

I think the market would react somewhat, but at the same time, prior history suggests even with that type of pledge, some skepticism is warranted.feedback

Sep 15 2016

There's no muscle in it ... expect for activity at drinking and eating establishments.feedback

Sep 15 2016

Consumers are over two-thirds of the economy. Relevant to next week, there's nothing here that would make the Fed raise rates.feedback

Sep 15 2016

The weakness in retail sales was scattered across a lot of things. It was driven mostly by motor vehicles but furniture sales were weak, building materials were weak.feedback

Sep 13 2016

My take on it is it's post Draghi redux. There's anxiety that the day will come when QE ends. That's why you had such a correlation between stocks and bonds. The reaction would be very different if it really was Fed anxiety.feedback

Sep 02 2016

Today's data supports the case for an increase in the fed funds rate in the foreseeable future as the labor market meanders toward full employment, but is not sufficiently compelling to support a rate hike on September 21.feedback

Aug 26 2016 - Federal Reserve

All she said was the case for a rate hike has strengthened in recent months. The lack of specificity on a timetable looks like it's going to happen later rather than sooner.feedback

Aug 22 2016 - Federal Reserve

It's just not going to happen in September, in my opinion. If anything else, the Fed does not want to throw itself in the crosshairs of this potentially ugly presidential campaign one week before the first debate.feedback

Aug 17 2016

It seems to me like it's still sufficiently noncommittal, that September does not look likely. I do think December is becoming more likely, but I also do not think they will make a commitment to that or start laying the groundwork until at least the November FOMC meeting. They've been burned by trying to set the stage too soon.feedback

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