William Jackson

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Last quote by William Jackson

The inflation rate ... is very near the central bank's target, and it doesn't seem justified having the policy rate at 10 percent when inflation is at 4.5 pct and going down. So the easing cycle could be quite significant from here on. Our sense is that any rate hikes are more likely to come in 2018. But when you have that slight shift coupled with continued very loose monetary policy by the ECB that could provide some support for the zloty.
Mar 21 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which William Jackson is associated, including Erdogan, U.S. Fed, and lira. Most recently, William Jackson has been quoted saying: β€œThe Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed's rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some cover from political pressure.” in the article Turkish central bank carefully tightens policy as political heat rises.
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William Jackson quotes

Some people have also interpreted the central bank's comments yesterday as relatively hawkish.

There's a general fear that a Trump presidency would be bad for emerging markets and lead to a flight to safety.

That suggests there might be a slight shift towards a more prudent approach to monetary policy.

It has been driven to a degree by opinion polls in the U.S. and it strengthens when there's a higher likelihood of Hillary Clinton winning.

The inflation outlook is still pretty poor, the current account deficit is widening, they may be cautious because of upcoming hikes by the U.S. Fed and the currency has already weakened quite a bit over the past few weeks. So they could stay on hold after this meeting.

Chinese trade data is a big factor - it suggests domestic demand isn't as strong ... which has a knock-on effect on other emerging markets.

The European markets may have reassessed and maybe some of the fears about Deutsche Bank have faded. More generally, there is a bit of stabilisation after a volatile few days.

The Saudis are quite happy to keep oil prices low to squeeze out high cost producers and it doesn't want to do anything that will benefit Iran. It's unlikely we will see something that will fundamentally alter the outlook for oil prices.

The coup attempt in July seems to have a very marked negative impact on economic activity.

It's always difficult to know quite what to make of these comments, although there are reports already of banks trying to lower their lending rates in response. There are two more general points that can be made though. First, in so far as banks do lower lending rates in response, that will damage their profitability which could in time make them less willing to lend.

There seems to be quite a benign environment for emerging markets at the moment with the Fed not hiking in the immediate future and the prospect of looser policy in both the euro zone and Japan.

The political moves point in the direction that things are likely to get worse rather than better from here on. So the lira is more likely to fall than to rise. This is about Turkish politics - I don't think there are other countries where politicians will take their cue from developments in Turkey.

The near-term economic impact of Friday night's attempted coup will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of slower growth, and the lira will remain under pressure.

If we do get a stronger President Erdogan, the macroeconomic consequences might take longer to become visible, but it would probably result in a scenario of more volatile, and slower, growth.

We think Mr. Cetinkaya will struggle to resist increasingly vocal demands from Mr. Erdogan and his allies for looser monetary policy.

Our sense is that, so long as inflation continues edges down and oil prices and the ruble stabilize, there may still be some room for rate cuts. But in so far as these do happen, they will come much later in the year, and be relatively small.

It's clearly difficult to predict interest rates in an environment where oil price movements make a significant contribution to the inflation outlook. Given the weakness of the economy it would probably take quite a lot to actually force the MPC (monetary policy committee) to raise rates.

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