William Jackson - Capital Economics


Last quote by William Jackson

This is a repeat of an earlier test so perhaps markets don't see this as something increasingly provocative.feedback
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Sep 15 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which William Jackson is associated, including Erdogan, U.S. Fed, and lira. Most recently, William Jackson has been quoted saying: “We've seen strong gains in EM over the past few months as the backdrop of a gradual slowdown in China and cautious stance from the Fed is rather benign.” in the article EMERGING MARKETS-Roaring factory growth helps emerging stocks to fresh 3-yr high.
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William Jackson quotes

May 23 2017 - China

One thing we are keeping an eye on is what's happening in China where the recovery seems to have peaked. We expect the slower data to continue in coming quarters and that could have repercussions on emerging markets as a whole.feedback

May 15 2017 - OPEC

The news that there's been a consensus on extending the OPEC cuts has provided some support to oil prices and some of the oil currencies such as the rouble. Maybe that has spread through to a more general improvement in sentiment towards emerging markets.feedback

Apr 10 2017 - Turkey

Certain parts of the government talk about 'things will improve after the vote and foreign investors will return to the country and structural reforms will start'. But we've seen these arguments made before. We've never really seen it happen, at least over the past six or seven years. I'm not very optimistic on that front.feedback

Mar 21 2017

The inflation rate ... is very near the central bank's target, and it doesn't seem justified having the policy rate at 10 percent when inflation is at 4.5 pct and going down. So the easing cycle could be quite significant from here on. Our sense is that any rate hikes are more likely to come in 2018. But when you have that slight shift coupled with continued very loose monetary policy by the ECB that could provide some support for the zloty.feedback

Mar 16 2017 - Turkey

The Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed's rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some cover from political pressure.feedback

Mar 16 2017 - Turkey

The complexity of Turkey's monetary policy setup can make it difficult to interpret decisions, but today's move was clearly aimed at tightening monetary conditions.feedback

Mar 07 2017

Perhaps the selloff was exacerbated by concerns about political interference at the central bank and now they have tightened maybe those fears have eased somewhat.feedback

Mar 07 2017 - Protectionism

Also, the economic data are improving and perhaps the concerns of a sharp lurch towards protectionism in the U.S. have eased off a bit. Markets may be a bit more confident that if the lira comes under further pressure with the Fed tightening, then the central bank will respond in time.feedback

Feb 21 2017 - Nigeria

The markets will be looking to see what fiscal tightening will be undertaken to reduce the budget deficit, stabilise debt ratios and maintain the investment grade rating.feedback

Feb 21 2017 - Nigeria

The story of a possible devaluation has come back as the latest moves seem to show a small entry towards to a weaker exchange rate. My worry is that they are not moving to a fully floating rate but to a more complex system of parallel rates, which will add to the confusion but won't help exporters. What people also want to see is a realistic growth forecast as the consensus is increasingly bearish.feedback

Jan 24 2017

We therefore don't expect policy to be tightened in the near term and expect talk to turn to loosening by the end of this year.feedback

Jan 16 2017

These tools potentially make what is already a convoluted monetary policy set up more complicated.feedback

Jan 16 2017

There are fundamental reasons why the Turkish lira should weaken with U.S. policy set to tighten and domestic political concerns...Also, it's an economy with an entrenched high wage growth, high inflation problem.feedback

Jan 10 2017 - UBS

An outright rate hike is the only way the central bank can take action and assure markets it will not let the lira plunge. The longer they go without doing it, the more aggressive action will be needed.feedback

Dec 07 2016

There seems to be a bit of turnaround since yesterday in the lira and one aspect is some of the measures such as selling foreign currencies.feedback

Dec 07 2016

Some people have also interpreted the central bank's comments yesterday as relatively hawkish.feedback

Oct 31 2016

This is a currency that has an economy with large vulnerabilities.feedback

Oct 31 2016

There's a general fear that a Trump presidency would be bad for emerging markets and lead to a flight to safety.feedback

Oct 24 2016

That suggests there might be a slight shift towards a more prudent approach to monetary policy.feedback

Oct 20 2016

It has been driven to a degree by opinion polls in the U.S. and it strengthens when there's a higher likelihood of Hillary Clinton winning.feedback

Oct 20 2016

The inflation outlook is still pretty poor, the current account deficit is widening, they may be cautious because of upcoming hikes by the U.S. Fed and the currency has already weakened quite a bit over the past few weeks. So they could stay on hold after this meeting.feedback

Oct 13 2016

Chinese trade data is a big factor - it suggests domestic demand isn't as strong ... which has a knock-on effect on other emerging markets.feedback

Sep 28 2016 - Deutsche Bank

The European markets may have reassessed and maybe some of the fears about Deutsche Bank have faded. More generally, there is a bit of stabilisation after a volatile few days.feedback

Sep 28 2016 - Iran

The Saudis are quite happy to keep oil prices low to squeeze out high cost producers and it doesn't want to do anything that will benefit Iran. It's unlikely we will see something that will fundamentally alter the outlook for oil prices.feedback

Sep 18 2016

The coup attempt in July seems to have a very marked negative impact on economic activity.feedback

Aug 11 2016

It's always difficult to know quite what to make of these comments, although there are reports already of banks trying to lower their lending rates in response. There are two more general points that can be made though. First, in so far as banks do lower lending rates in response, that will damage their profitability which could in time make them less willing to lend.feedback

Aug 10 2016 - Japan

There seems to be quite a benign environment for emerging markets at the moment with the Fed not hiking in the immediate future and the prospect of looser policy in both the euro zone and Japan.feedback

Jul 21 2016 - Turkey

The political moves point in the direction that things are likely to get worse rather than better from here on. So the lira is more likely to fall than to rise. This is about Turkish politics - I don't think there are other countries where politicians will take their cue from developments in Turkey.feedback

Jul 18 2016

The near-term economic impact of Friday night's attempted coup will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of slower growth, and the lira will remain under pressure.feedback

May 05 2016

If we do get a stronger President Erdogan, the macroeconomic consequences might take longer to become visible, but it would probably result in a scenario of more volatile, and slower, growth.feedback

Apr 11 2016

We think Mr. Cetinkaya will struggle to resist increasingly vocal demands from Mr. Erdogan and his allies for looser monetary policy.feedback

Jan 29 2016

Our sense is that, so long as inflation continues edges down and oil prices and the ruble stabilize, there may still be some room for rate cuts. But in so far as these do happen, they will come much later in the year, and be relatively small.feedback

Jan 29 2016

It's clearly difficult to predict interest rates in an environment where oil price movements make a significant contribution to the inflation outlook. Given the weakness of the economy it would probably take quite a lot to actually force the MPC (monetary policy committee) to raise rates.feedback

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