Last quote by William Jackson
William Jackson quotes
Some people have also interpreted the central bank's comments yesterday as relatively hawkish.
This is a currency that has an economy with large vulnerabilities.
There's a general fear that a Trump presidency would be bad for emerging markets and lead to a flight to safety.
That suggests there might be a slight shift towards a more prudent approach to monetary policy.
It has been driven to a degree by opinion polls in the U.S. and it strengthens when there's a higher likelihood of Hillary Clinton winning.
The inflation outlook is still pretty poor, the current account deficit is widening, they may be cautious because of upcoming hikes by the U.S. Fed and the currency has already weakened quite a bit over the past few weeks. So they could stay on hold after this meeting.
Chinese trade data is a big factor - it suggests domestic demand isn't as strong ... which has a knock-on effect on other emerging markets.
The European markets may have reassessed and maybe some of the fears about Deutsche Bank have faded. More generally, there is a bit of stabilisation after a volatile few days.
The Saudis are quite happy to keep oil prices low to squeeze out high cost producers and it doesn't want to do anything that will benefit Iran. It's unlikely we will see something that will fundamentally alter the outlook for oil prices.
The coup attempt in July seems to have a very marked negative impact on economic activity.
It's always difficult to know quite what to make of these comments, although there are reports already of banks trying to lower their lending rates in response. There are two more general points that can be made though. First, in so far as banks do lower lending rates in response, that will damage their profitability which could in time make them less willing to lend.
There seems to be quite a benign environment for emerging markets at the moment with the Fed not hiking in the immediate future and the prospect of looser policy in both the euro zone and Japan.
The political moves point in the direction that things are likely to get worse rather than better from here on. So the lira is more likely to fall than to rise. This is about Turkish politics - I don't think there are other countries where politicians will take their cue from developments in Turkey.
The near-term economic impact of Friday night's attempted coup will depend on the length and severity of market dislocation, but at the very least the economy is likely to suffer a period of slower growth, and the lira will remain under pressure.
If we do get a stronger President Erdogan, the macroeconomic consequences might take longer to become visible, but it would probably result in a scenario of more volatile, and slower, growth.
We think Mr. Cetinkaya will struggle to resist increasingly vocal demands from Mr. Erdogan and his allies for looser monetary policy.
Our sense is that, so long as inflation continues edges down and oil prices and the ruble stabilize, there may still be some room for rate cuts. But in so far as these do happen, they will come much later in the year, and be relatively small.
It's clearly difficult to predict interest rates in an environment where oil price movements make a significant contribution to the inflation outlook. Given the weakness of the economy it would probably take quite a lot to actually force the MPC (monetary policy committee) to raise rates.