Last quote about Bull market
All quotes about Bull market
If everyone is cowed and so few have the courage to say 'this is a bull market and it is hard to bet against,' then you are going to have moments like today where the whole thing just explodes higher.
The S&P jumped 3.7 percent in February after rising 1.8 percent in January. In the 27 years since 1945 that the S&P rose in both January and February, the S&P recorded a positive full year return 27 out of 27 times, averaging a total return of 24 percent. In the subsequent March, the S&P gained 1.2 percent and was up 70 percent of the time. It was a nine year plus. We are now the second longest bull market since World War II. If it ended today, it would be the second most expensive. The bull market of 2000 topped out with a P/E of 30 times. This one is at 25 times trailing.
I would be more of a buyer on a pullback. The bull market lives on. The fundamentals were already there to support the market. The problem now of course … is that the expectations bar has been set high. You are going to need some stronger top line growth looking out beyond this turn from negative to positive in earnings because valuation is stretched enough that I think earnings need to do more of the heavy lifting. But I think we're in decent shape in terms of earnings and the economy. I think the fiscal stimulus would be additive to that.
I think the world has forgotten that this is a new secular bull market, and cyclical growth stocks are back in. When I look at a chart of Freeport-McMoRan here, what a great bottoming setup here. It's your classic inverted head and shoulders bottom.
I don't think there's any point in getting carried away. This is a big rally in the market – clearly a bull market or a mini bull market – but when we look out in time, and I don't pay a lot of attention to the daily things that happen along the way, I look more in 10 years intervals, and in 10 years looks like our GPD might grow 2 percent, if we are lucky.
"If that tax reform date looks like it's pushed too far in the future, the market reacts negatively to it. We don't think it kills the bull market, but it could pull the market down 3 to 4 percent near term. A trim, not a haircut,"
We're in the camp that the stocks are overbought, but they're in a multiyear bull market.
If that tax reform date looks like it's pushed too far in the future, the market reacts negatively to it. We don't think it kills the bull market, but it could pull the market down 3 to 4 percent near term. A trim, not a haircut.
The market is up 49 percent since that high, or 4.36 percent annualized. That's not a raging bull market. it's a recovering market and it's climbed a wall of worry. Now I think we're getting ready for a bull market because we're getting rid of the monetary policy stimulus. We're moving toward normalization and we're moving toward fiscal stimulus.
I think it's somewhat encouraging to see there's a healthy level of skepticism on the markets. If we can get individual investors back into the market this year, you could see the bull market trade another leg higher.
We do think bigger picture, this bull market, out into next year should continue. It took a little bit longer than I expected to get to 20,000, and the recent consolidation was nice to work off the overbought conditions coming into this year. You don't want it to make 21,000 too fast. That could be some sort of blow off equity top.
We do think bigger picture, this bull market, out into next year should continue. But the bottom line, this is a very extended near-term market. You don't want it to make 21,000 too fast. That could be some sort of blow off equity top.
Our take is that the longer-term bull market is continuing. After spending six weeks consolidating sideways, which is often the case in a strong bull market, you see more time corrections than a correction through price. Presidents can magnify and potentially dampen the equity cycle and performance in some sectors and industries. But for the most part, I don't think that's going to be the key determinant. My take is any sort of bad news in that sector is probably already priced in. It's still a group that is down 26 percent from where it peaked back in 2014.
I don't think there's much significance about these round numbers. Surely they're psychological. It's closely watched. Our take is we're going to get there whether it happens today, tomorrow or next week. It's probably not very important. Looking through 2017, I think we go well beyond it. I think the market could be up 10 percent this year. Today is possibly signaling a resumption of the longer term bull market that we think is still in play.
We're not quite at the end of the bull market in Europe.
Inspired by the aforementioned catalysts, we have entered into ... a 'political bull market.
From 2008-2015, this 'political bull market' took the form of more regulation, higher taxes and heightened industry scrutiny. Many governments also promoted fiscal austerity, multilateral trade and aggressive monetary stimulus. However, last year's U.K. Brexit vote and U.S. election of President Donald Trump likely presage a new chapter in this bull market story.
Corporate earnings are telling us that it's a bull market.
It doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon. The appetite's there; 74 percent of advisors just told us two weeks ago that they plan on adding more money into ETFs as we go into next year, fueling the bull market in stocks and bonds.
This has been a bull market that everyone has learned to hate. If one looks at the asset allocation exposure that they have in the markets, that's the critical element. The public has been buying bonds to the tune of over a trillion dollars for the last four years. And that money is what I think is going to be the strong equity money which pushes this market up next year.
It might look like a bull market, but investors will still be selective. Market performance has been mixed this year so there is some caution and valuations have to reflect that.
In a bull market, companies would not have been worried about incremental margins through marketing, but now everyone is focused on getting the maximum price and they can get a little bit of extra margin over a lot of tonnes. Small changes are important at the bottom of the cycle and it still matters, but it's not going to change the investment case.
What we've learned in the past year is that it has not paid to be with the consensus, so maybe this bull market surprises everyone in the beginning of the new year and continues moving.
Even though only one other bull market since World War II has lasted this long, the things that would end up throwing us off track, meaning indicators for a recession, are just not there.
We could be at the very beginning of a so-called great rotation that may take several years and be a tail wind for this bull market.
Finally coming into the eighth year of a bull market, we're starting to see animal spirits, we're starting to see investor confidence.
In March 2017, the U.S. bull market will be eight years old. By any standard, this is a very aging bull market. By June 2017, the economic recovery will be eight years old. By any standard, a recovery that is very mature.
Less than half of investors consider themselves bullish at this point. Even after these new highs we've seen postelection, individual investor sentiment as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors still hasn't even gotten above 50 percent. So, individual investors not only have been sitting out this recent rally, but most of the bull market.
I think above 3 percent is a problem. If the 10-year goes above 3 percent, you would also have to say unequivocally you have seen the end of the bond bull market.
The lofty valuations and the vertical ascents in the major stock indexes strongly suggest that the mania phase of this bull market may be underway. It may have further to go once overseas cash actually does get repatriated and if retail investors start to pile into the market.
All I can say is 'oops'... These guys totally missed eh fact that this market is seeing a wholesale re-rating of the financial sector, and all of the banks were ready to roar in advance of this week's Fed meeting … Turns out this market doesn't care about nitpicking when it comes to the bull market in the financials.
The big thing you have to look out for is inflation. What will ultimately land this bull market is inflation, and the Fed will be forced to act.
That day was the day that the greatest bull market ever in the bond market ended. Since then, yields have been rising. That without a doubt is the biggest event of 2016. Everyone was positioned for that to continue.
I still think the bull market is intact. If we get to the end of the year, which it looks like it will be the longest bull market in the last 50 years or so.
We're looking at 2,250 [on the S&P 500] before the end of the year. I still think the bull market is intact. If we get to the end of the year, which it looks like it will be the longest bull market in the last 50 years or so.
So long as rates move up slowly, the Fed raises rates slowly, the bull market continues on.
We've had a long-term bull market in bonds, as interest rates have gone from double digits to 1.37 percent. That's a 35-year tailwind which I think is now turning into headwind.
We think it's going to come down to the economy. As long as the overall economic picture continues to improve, this seven-year bull market can make it into year eight.
You're seeing some strength across the board. That's a healthy sign and indicates to me that we're in a bull market.
The early stage of a bull market can be accompanied by the initial rising rate cycle. It isn't until you get to about 5 percent that you start having problems.
Buyers just can't wait for this market to come down. They are stepping up each day for a host of stocks. The result? I always say there is a bull market somewhere and right now there are almost too many to count.
I think we're out of a bear market and into a bull market for copper. I turned bullish about a month ago.
The technical picture for copper had already started to improve, signalling a switch towards a bull market, driven by speculative positioning.
Everything Mr. Trump's going to do points in the direction of growth, and that will point in the direction of a higher bull market.
Putting aside their personalities and policy proposals, it will likely not matter who the next president is when it comes to where markets go. As we are in the second-longest bull market of all time, and as we approach the eighth year of this economic expansion, odds are high that whoever the next president is, they will preside over a recession, a bear market and rising debts and deficits.
Bonds are unattractive in my view. I believe we hit a double bottom in bonds in the summertime and we're in a benign bear market in bonds. The 35-year bull market in bonds is over, in my view.
I think this is a positive sign, and why we still think this structural bull market probably has more room to work as we think over the next couple of years.
It's not a bull market but it's a constructive market with a lot of liquidity which investors are keen to deploy into the right equity story and at the right price. It's not a market you can take for granted. Volatility could return and investors will monitor the trading performance of deals.
Nevertheless, this action will at least put a bottom under oil prices and the energy sector. Whether this will be the start of a new bull market will depend on the details of the deal.
I think the U.S. stock market is transitioning from an interest rate secular-driven bull market to an earnings-driven bull market. I think that's going to become quite apparent as you go over the next 12 months.
Typically, you have correlations approach 1 when you're in a bear market, and the first year of a bull market.
Most people feel the most unloved bull market in recent memory will be cut off at the knees by higher interest rates, and the Fed is certainly threatening that in the near term.
This thesis does seem to make some sense, but it works in a market that's sideways consolidating, and right now we're in a bull market, and we think there's going to be more upside ahead.
The bigger picture continues to look like a much bigger market cycle recovering from the February lows, very consistent with a new leg up in the bull market, and we think it has quite a ways to run. The bias is higher. We could see it ending the year at 2,350.
When we look at VIX under 12, and out-of-the-money call options being priced historically high, reflecting this increased risk of missing out on a rally – after we already had a rally – we think people are being too complacent about risk. We're neither calling for a sell-off or an end to the 7-1/2 year bull market. We just think you have to step back and remember that this is a higher volatility environment.
That sounds like what we do in a bull market. What that speaks to is that it's been a broad-based rally. Usually the rallies that are led by many stocks are ... the rallies that continue. We've had these indexes make new highs. We've had the advanced decline line make new highs.
In 1990, bond yields stabilized ? after huge declines from '82 to '90, and there were a lot of investors who thought the bull market would run out of steam in 1990, and they missed really the 10 years of the biggest returns in the stock market.
The ride up there is going to be bumpy, not smooth and that may trigger alarms. The Dow reaching 20,000 will depend on several factors, including earnings and monetary policy. I think the Dow is headed higher; we're still in a bull market. Whether it [hits 20,000] between now and the end of the year, I don't know.
So far, it's been pretty good. What we saw through the end of last week, it was the best beat rate for U.S. companies since the early quarters of the bull market, and even revenue beat rates have shown improvement. Companies have been meeting the numbers. Guidance has been split pretty evenly down the middle, where most quarters in the recent past have been much more negative guidance than positive.
This confirms that the cyclical bull market from March 9, 2009, has surpassed the length of the June 1949-August 1956 rally to become the second longest cyclical bull market in excess of 20 percent (without a 20 percent drop) since the December 1987-March 2000 advance. The March 2009-July 2016 rally of 215.90 percent is closing in on the 228.81 percent gain during the cyclical bull market from August 1982-August 1987.
Nobody is going to say we have a bull market, let alone a new bull market with those kinds of numbers.
I think we're going to have a pretty big cascade of change in the rest of this bull market. Up until now, across the globe, it's been led by three main themes: large cap, United States and consumer-oriented stocks. I think going forward, all three of those leaderships are in the process of changing.
I think we're set up for a long-term bull market. More sideways trading gives the bull market "a floor to stand on.
I think we are still in bull market, but I also think the headwinds are increasing.
You've seen oil rebound today, which people are viewing very much as a kind of a green flag in the short-term to take on risk again to a certain degree. To me, this continues to be a counter-trend rally in the context of an intermediate to longer-term decline in the stock market. Our view is that this is nowhere near the resumption of a bull market.
When you have the recouping of all of the losses from a prior bear market, which is what the S&P 500 did back on May 30th of this year, I think going forward it adds confirmation that this bull market is alive and well.