Last quote about Demonetization
All quotes about Demonetization
Demonetisation itself is likely to be inflationary over the longer term if it leads to supply disruptions even as demand recovers. For example, some farmers in rural areas have reportedly been unable to purchase seeds and/or fertiliser. This could lead to smaller harvests later in the year, which in turn would boost prices.
Because of demonetization , lending rates have come down. As well, bank deposits have increased. If those lower lending rates can be translated into higher investment, then there's certainly going to be less risk from demonetization. It will also depend on the monsoon season that's coming up. Monsoon season tends to drive India's food inflation. If we see a good monsoon season, I think food prices will come down even lower than they are at the moment and therefore I think RBI will be cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.
It signals the end of the loosening cycle. Looking ahead, with inflation set to accelerate, we continue to think that rate hikes will come onto the agenda much sooner than is generally anticipated.
It's quite disappointing that RBI has come out with a strongly hawkish policy at a time when growth slowdown has become very acute in the aftermath of demonetisation.
The mere potential of voter backlash raised the prospects of a populist budget.
We are in discussions on a number of things, including retail stores, and fully intend to invest significantly in the country and believe it's a great place to be. Despite the demonetisation move in India that created lots of economic pressure there last quarter, despite that, we had all-time record revenue results, and so we were very happy about that. The demonetisation impact has not worked its way through yet. It's still definitely having some overhang. But I think in the longer term, it's a great move, and I feel really good about how we're doing there.
Indian politics is determined by intangible factors of voter perception and not necessarily just the tangible economic numbers. For the Indian voter, demonetisation signals that Modi is trying, and is perhaps the only one doing something to address corruption.
Despite the negative impact on short-term growth from demonetization, fiscal discipline will remain a priority. Signs of a populist Budget will be positive for markets but if accompanied by a larger-than-expected borrowing program, sentiments will quickly reverse. The demonetization initiative is also likely to raise one-off revenues, which along with other measures, such as tweaks to the capital gains tax regime, or a revival of the cash transaction tax, might be channeled to fund fresh spending plans.
This could provide flexibility for more public investments to offset the drag on growth from the recent demonetization move.
Results (at financial firms) have positively surprised the markets so far. The negative impact of demonetisation was probably not as bad as it was initially thought.
Local brands' target customers typically buy in cash and from independent retailers. With the short-term liquidity crunch caused by demonetization, these retailers are suffering a slowdown in consumer spending. Local vendors are losing out as retailers look to shift their stock to fast-moving, current devices.
Markets are generally getting excited about results declared by some finance companies as the numbers have not shown any major impact of demonetization.
The very fact that Prime Minister Modi had to announce (systems of procedures) for certain sections of the population, is in itself a tacit admission that the effects of demonetization have been more painful than expected.
We also see the potential revival in already anemic private investment taking far longer than we originally anticipated.
Inflation is in single digits, the twin deficits are under control and foreign exchange reserves are at comfortable levels.
India is likely to witness two big 'reforms' over the year - the play-out of the demonetization drive and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill. The hope is that both of these are followed up by necessary actions, which are critical to reaping long-term gains.
For a region highly reliant on credit growth, the resulting tightening of financial conditions is a challenge...one that may grow over the coming year.
It appears unlikely that exports will make a sustained recovery this year, or take over as a growth driver at a time when domestic demand continues to slow. Protectionist sentiment is strengthening, not just in the U.S. but elsewhere as well, raising the risk that restrictive measures may be increasingly adopted unilaterally.
We see Indian demand growth slowing ... due to the recent currency demonetisation drive by the Indian government.
The cash crunch ... is dampening growth in agricultural and other small-to-medium scale sectors, which are heavily cash-reliant. It will easily take three to six months for the dust to settle.
I am very worried about the projected growth rate. Taking demonetisation into account, the rate will drop substantially.
Mostly the impact of demonetization will be proportionally higher in micro-, smaller- and medium-scale enterprises.
The budget is expected to be fiscally disciplined, with hopes that the government may take measures to boost economic recovery post the demonetisation impact. The key driver for markets will be earnings growth. Due to the impact of demonetisation, we believe that earnings growth numbers will pare down initially.
I think it's an interesting alternative asset class, especially as a hedge towards things like demonetization or other geopolitical factors. If you do have a portfolio, I see very little harm in having a little bit of crypto-currency in that portfolio to hedge some of these different geopolitical events.
Having held its ground in November following the unexpected withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 bank notes from circulation, India's manufacturing industry slid into contraction at the end of 2016. Shortages of money in the economy steered output and new orders in the wrong direction, thereby interrupting a continuous sequence of growth that had been seen throughout 2016.
Banks could be falling due to fears that lending rate cuts may hurt their net interest margins. The market in general is expected to be rangebound in the near term while the key focus will be on the upcoming earnings season as traders wait to see the impact of demonetisation on corporates' results.
2016 was boring but Modi brought about a twister near the end. It's good for India. 2016 was good and with demonetization 2017 should be good for the Indian economy and India should move to the digital age.
The countless unpredictable consequences that will continue to show in the coming weeks and months mean that it is, in effect, a huge gamble. Inflicting such huge costs for what is an uncertain outcome is problematic. One of the major problems with the demonetization move is that success is so difficult to measure. In and of itself, it can't end black money, stop terrorism funding and the counterfeiting of notes.
Next year also, in terms of (IPO) deals it should be quite strong. Due to demonetization, in some cases valuations might have to be adjusted for certain sectors. However, the other noteworthy aspect is that demonetisation will channelise substantial savings to the financial sector.
The knock-on effect of Indian demonetisation has meant a reduction in the prices of lower quality diamonds.
Many retail consumers are not buying. They think the government might bring new law to limit how much gold people can hold. They are waiting for this demonetisation process to get over before making big purchases.
Until such a notice is received, we will not accept the new Indian notes.
We expect lower private consumption in fiscal 2017, but expect demand to revive and growth to rebound in fiscal 2018. India should shortly revert back to an 8 percent annual growth trajectory.
India should shortly revert back to an 8 percent annual growth trajectory.
We continued to see good demand for De Beers rough diamonds in our latest sales cycle. While the treade in lower value rough diamonds is experiencing a temporary slowdown as a result of the demonetisation programme in India, demand across the rest od the product mix continued to be healthy and overall sales remained in line with seasonal expectations.
Everyone is running business with limited inventory. Jewellers are waiting for correction in prices and want to see how demonetization pans out.
It's not possible to make a sensible forecast on what will happen in February. We need to take stock at the end of January to see how India is affected by the Fed's stance, the union (federal) budget and the impact of demonetisation.
If you look at the October statement, you'll see that he (Patel) had said that the focus will be on growth and not towards CPI. After demonetisation, when people are saying that there are concerns around growth, he has shifted and said that our focus is on CPI inflation and growth is not much of a concern. We really don't know what it is that he has got in his mind.
It's a very difficult time for the RBI because there are conflicting signals coming from different parts of the economy. On the one hand, the demonetization experiment does look like it might have a negative effect on growth in the short run. But at the same time all the money flooding into the banks right now as people clean out their closets of their cash holdings does pose some risks for inflationary pressures.
While we expected an improved auto industry performance on the back of the festive season and other positive parameters such as rural demand and interest rates softening, the sudden announcement of demonetisation has brought in an immediate disruption and uncertainty. This has dampened overall sentiments leading to postponed buying, thereby resulting in a major drop in volumes during November.
It (demonetisation) is unlikely to bring in some sort of demand destruction. What we are talking about is shifting of demand from one month to another one.
The new demonetisation programme will require an adjustment period to allow industries and stakeholders to adapt to the new policies... we have decided to delay our forthcoming emerald auction by approximately two months. This decision has been well received, and appreciated, by our auction participants.
The improved growth is no cause for cheer going forward, since consumption, the main growth driver of the economy, will likely be the biggest casualty in the months ahead as demonetization takes its toll on overall consumption, especially in rural areas.
Demonetization aside, the other major caveat when it comes to India GDP is accuracy... The economy is likely growing a few percentage points slower than what official data suggests.
Post-demonetisation the situation is really grim whether you look at any sector or talk to the people.
In terms of the policy implications, today's release is unlikely to have much of an impact. Attention has already turned to the impact of the government's demonetisation measures.
We think that it will attempt to cushion the blow from demonetization.
The key issue at stake here is an improvement in overall governance...But the policies required to tackle governance issues on a lasting basis are much more substantive than just demonetization, you can't rely on that alone.
From an investment perspective, the demonetisation drive is likely to have a disinflationary impact, given how dependent on cash the Indian economy is for internal trade.
We assume that growth for these components (will) halve on the back of the monetary shock.
After lagging initially, implementation is now turning a corner and officials are likely to roll out creative new means of reaching rural populations in the coming weeks. The central government recently constituted small teams of senior bureaucrats tasked with assessing the local-level impact of the note cancellation.
A lot will yet depend on the agility of the federal government to adequately and quickly respond to the pain felt by large sections of the population.
This is politically a moment fraught with great risk for the BJP. It is the first time that the people's everyday experience is in conflict with Delhi's self-assured narrative. That is not a situation any government likes to be in.
Earlier I was expecting a rate cut in February. But now I expect a rate cut in December given that the demonetisation move is fiscal and inflation positive.
The demonetisation has had a big impact on the attendance.