Federal Reserve


Last quote about Federal Reserve

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System
We think it will be appropriate for the attainment of our goals to raise interest rates very gradually to levels that are likely to remain quite low, although there is uncertainty about this, to remain low by historical standards for a long time.feedback
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NEW Jun 27 2017
Multiple people spoke about Federal Reserve in the news. We gather all their quotes on this page, an easy way to see all views about this topic at a glance. To go deeper, all quotes are redirected to the article from which they come. Janet L. Yellen is the person who had the greatest number of quotes. The most recent one of them is: “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be.”.
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All quotes about Federal Reserve

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We want to keep the expansion on a sustainable path and avoid the risk that ... we find ourselves in a situation where we've done nothing, and then need to raise the funds rate so rapidly that we risk a recession. But we are attentive to the fact that inflation is running below our 2 percent objective.feedback

Josh Bivens - Economic Policy Institute

Today's decision seems to indicate that the Fed is on autopilot to raise rates, regardless of what the data argue. This will lead quite soon to a pronounced slowdown in economic activity and job growth, and could essentially mean that we never manage to achieve genuine full employment or give American workers a real chance at sustained, durable wage growth.feedback

Michael Becker

It's hard to imagine that economic data could have a larger impact on mortgage rates than what the Federal Reserve says and does, but that's exactly what happened. The economic data that came out continued the trend of coming out softer than expected. … This, on top of a weak jobs report for May, has markets doubting the Fed will hike another time this year and start to unwind their balance sheet this year as well.feedback

Anja Hochberg - Credit Suisse Group

There's a relative outperformance of emerging markets on the equity side rather than the rest of the world. Then there will be some reversion here as well. In addition, of course you have the Federal Reserve rate hikes, people simply want to wait and see what's going to happen. Now we have it on the table people can react to it and certainly once that's digested, the way will be more open to emerging market assets in general.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Our decision reflects the progress the economy has made and is expected to make.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

It's important not to overreact to a few readings, and data on inflation can be noisy. We continue to feel that with a strong labour market and with a labour market that's continuing to strengthen, the conditions are in place for inflation to move up.feedback

Jim Cramer

Instead, while you may have heard that [Yellen] could cool the housing market with this hike, ... then why did the housing stocks rally, with many of them hitting their highest levels since 2007, before the Great Recession? Why did Home Depot, the most housing-sensitive retail stock, soar? Because, at least for now, this rate hike a non-event.feedback

Jim Cramer

The S&P and Dow hit an all-time high yesterday, and the Dow hit another one today. That seems like a pretty good argument for why we should've been down big on today's rate hike, especially given how weak consumer spending has been and how tepid the overall growth rate is. But she's judged it correctly: a non-event that produced a little buying and a little selling is really an apt description of what happened in the wake of her actions.feedback

Jim Cramer

I didn't hear a soul come out today and mention how right Yellen's been and how wrong everyone else has been about factoring [in] the Trump effect. She's been right as rain about what was going to happen and she gets zero credit whatsoever for engineering this soft path out of the economic emergency room.feedback

Art Cashin

[Yellen] was [overly optimistic] based on the data today. I don't see them moving again this year, unless things improve dramatically.feedback

Ian Shepherdson - Pantheon Macroeconomics

One side has to blink, and given the Fed's 50-year obsession with the unemployment rate, it's unlikely to be Dr. Yellen.feedback

Greg McBride

As expected, the Federal Reserve followed through with an interest rate hike – the third in the past six months and fourth in the past 18 months. But this could be the last hike for a while. Until we see a reversal of the recent weakness in economic growth, retail sales and inflation, the Fed will be on the sidelines.feedback

Gwen Moore

President Trump's reported nominees at the Federal Reserve hold opinions radically outside the mainstream of the American public and the economic consensus. Emerging economic research indicates we can tolerate higher inflation if the trade off means higher wages and lower unemployment.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

So what I've said about my own situation is I fully intend to serve out my term as chair, which ends in early February.feedback

Stephen Gallo - BMO Capital Markets

There was a stale short of the commodity bloc and the move in the CAD has dragged them higher. We'll still see rate hikes baked in for the future. But there is a risk that they will send some sort of dovish signal. A median dot comes down, something like that. If Yellen says something about balance sheet reduction, that would be dollar positive.feedback

Boris Schlossberg

The dollar will sell off very hard, bonds will be bought and equities will likely rally if there are no more rate hikes before 2017. The Fed chairwoman, Janet Yellen, has been arguing that inflation is going to accelerate into the second half of this year. Tomorrow's data is going to be key in telling us whether that's really going to be the case or whether it's going to stay very much moribund.feedback

Boris Schlossberg

The market is going to focus on the dot plot and what Chairwoman Janet Yellen says, whether she is going to be dovish or hawkish with respect to the rest of the year.feedback

William McChesney Martin

We should be under no illusions. A decision to move now can lead to an important revamping of the Federal Reserve System, including its structure and operating methods. This is a real possibility and I have been turning it over in my mind for months.feedback

William McChesney Martin

The function of the Federal Reserve, is to take away the punch bowl just as the party is getting good.feedback

Brad DeLong

When I write the history of the 2010s, I think both Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are going to be judged quite harshly.feedback

Matt Maley

Unless Comey drops a complete bomb shell … or crude oil begins to crash … the odds are pretty good that the stock markets will remain quiet until we hear from Janet Yellen next week.feedback

Kenneth J. Heinz

As a result, the thematic drivers of performance for H2 17 have shifted to include not only the Trump and Yellen trades, but also the Volatility reversal trade and the increased risk associated with Terrorism and Cybersecurity. Managers positioned tactically long and short which are able to navigate both rising and falling volatility market cycles are likely to lead industry performance in H2 17.feedback

Craig Erlam

We have a big week or so ahead of us with the UK heading to the polls and the ECB announcing its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday and the Federal Reserve doing the same next Wednesday. Once these events pass, we may have a little more clarity and therefore see a little less caution in the markets.feedback

Christopher Whalen

Clearly, these appointees are a significant departure from the crowd that we've had on the board. Yellen is probably the most left-wing Fed chair we've ever had. I also think both Quarles and Goodfriend have much better grounding in the financial markets. That would be refreshing.feedback

Ray Attrill

In the event that the polls prove to be giving a misleading impression of a fairly slender Conservative poll lead and instead they are returned to power with a reasonably increased majority (say 15 to 20 seats or more) then GBP should enjoy at least a modest relief rally. Our current forecast for GBP/USD at $1.30 by end of June and AUD/GBP at 0.56 likely requires such an outcome. On GBP/USD this assumes that the U.S. dollar comes to no harm out of the June 13/14 FOMC (when the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss interest rates).feedback

David Lamb

This is a broadly grim jobs report, but not quite grim enough to blow the Fed off course. The momentum - and expectation - for a June interest rate hike is sufficiently strong to ensure that (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen will still pull the trigger as expected on June 14th.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

Dollar/yen has climbed on the stronger-than-expected advance by Japanese stocks today. The dollar still needs a meaningful rise by U.S. yields if it is to gain further, and right now Treasuries appear to be bound by thoughts that the Federal Reserve will limit its monetary tightening after it hikes rates in June.feedback

Mark Hamrick

While the Federal Reserve might not be dissuaded from raising interest rates at this month's meeting, the jobs numbers might make the debate at least more vigorous. The lack of more substantial inflation also argues against a future trajectory of aggressive rate hikes.feedback

Michael Becker

Mortgage rates are near their lows for 2017. This despite the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to talk about rate hikes. I believe this is because markets are starting to discount the ability of the Trump administration to pass its pro-growth agenda, and the fact that economic data is coming in softer than expected. … I expect rates to stay low longer than most expect. But given that they are near the lows of the year I don't see them dropping further.feedback

Kiran Kowshik - UniCredit Research

In emerging markets there are a lot of things that are positive. In addition to the growth, the market is pretty relaxed on (U.S. Federal Reserve) policy right now – it seems like the Fed is not going to rock the boat.feedback

Marc Chaikin - Chaikin Analytics

Based on what we heard from the [Federal Reserve] last week, I think they're due for a second wind.feedback

Thu Lan Nguyen - Commerzbank

A lot of what we are seeing is the after effects of Friday's news and data releases, . We have a little bit of dollar strength following better U.S. data and some hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. And we have a little bit of a pound recovery following the latest poll results from the UK.feedback

Lukman Otunuga

Although expectations of a rate hike in June were realized when Federal Reserve officials said it would 'soon be appropriate' to raise rates again, the longer-term hiking path remains clouded. The prospect of a third U.S rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2017 still remains under threat, especially when considering how Trump uncertainty still remains a major theme.feedback

Diane Swonk

I think there's still two rate hikes. What they want to do is set up a trajectory so there's a path to rate hikes and unwind the balance sheet in a measured and slow way before Chair Yellen leaves office.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

For all practical purposes, Hong Kong delegated the determination of its monetary policy to the Federal Reserve.feedback

Albert Edwards

I had expected it to roar like a lion, but instead it has been as gentle as a lamb. I feel especially foolish as I had written that wages were set to accelerate sharply, forcing the (Federal Reserve) to tighten aggressively and thereby driving both bond yields and the dollar higher. The bottom line is that U.S. corporate margins are suffering a savage squeeze and have been for some time. What then do I make of the heady first-quarter company reporting round? Not much.feedback

Marvin Goodfriend

The reason he was one of the greatest economists in the 20th century is because he played a leading role in persuading the Federal Reserve to end the great inflation with disciplined monetary policy.feedback

Nicholas Colas - ConvergeX

The simplest answer is that the Federal Reserve is fundamentally mistaken about the state of the U.S. economy. Its commentary [on Wednesday] shrugged off both a weak Q1 GDP print and the subpar March jobs report.feedback

Chris Weston

Certainly, the poor vehicle sales print can be added to a growing list of below par U.S. data points of late and that will almost certainly be a theme the Federal Reserve will explore. Keep in mind the interest rate markets are pricing a 60 percent chance of a hike from the Fed in June, so this probability will move depending on the tone of the statement.feedback

Neel Kashkari - Federal Reserve

For the last five or six years, the Federal Reserve keeps predicting inflation is around the corner. And those predictions end up being wrong.feedback

Manuel Oliveri - Crédit Agricole

The focus (for the dollar) should be increasingly back to the Federal Reserve (policy), but at the same time when it comes to Trump and his announcements we believe that expectations have been falling to some extent when it comes to his potential to surprise. From that point of view, we don't expect any dollar downside risks on the back of any disappointments with respect to Trump.feedback

Larry McDonald - Amazon.com

This is a credit bubble in autos that is very reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long; the easy-money gravy train has funded a colossal supply of cars.feedback

Julie L. Williams

No, we just can't do that. The banks wouldn't like it. I told her I agreed with her concerns, but when I said, We just can't do that,' I explained that was because the Comptroller's office did not have jurisdiction to adopt rules to ban the practice. I told her this was the Federal Reserve Board's purview.feedback

Tobias Adrian - International Monetary Fund

The Federal Reserve has an additional policy tool which is the size of the balance sheet and it can use that policy tool to impact longer term yields. We feel that it should use that tool in a predictable manner so that it doesn't generate surprises in the market place. At the moment the market is moving somewhat sideways as people are trying to figure out what the next policy moves are going to be… but of course, we could see big moves if there is news coming out in terms of actions.feedback

Zach Pandl - Goldman Sachs Group

The administration's currency views could affect the dollar through a variety of channels, including its appointments to the Federal Reserve Board and through aspects of trade and fiscal policy.feedback

Peter Schiff

Even [former Fed chairman] Alan Greenspan is forecasting stagflation, and he ought to know because he wrote the playbook that Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are following.feedback

Steve Moore

Look, what made Trump so attractive to so many of the Trump voters was this idea that… he wasn't just a standard politician who says one thing and does another thing, so he's got to be careful about that. It's the big promises that matter most. We, as conservatives, believe the Fed should basically have one mandate, and that is to keep the dollar stable and to keep inflation down. Janet Yellen has to go. The free-market conservatives -- I think they're universal in wanting to get rid of Yellen. I think people would be very disappointed.feedback

Jim Cramer

Right now, investors are confused about Trump. A man who ran on the idea that America comes first, that China hurt our country with its currency manipulation, that interest rates may be too low, that Fed chief Janet Yellen is toast, that NATO's no longer relevant and that the Export-Import bank is a boondoggle for big companies, suddenly repudiated every single one of those principles in a single 24-hour news cycle.feedback

Bill Gross

In terms of Yellen, I think it's interesting that he's reversed there as well. He likes Yellen now. He thinks that maybe he'll reappoint her. He's got three to five appointments going forward in terms of the Fed. You know, I would expect him to appoint dovish types of governors and presidents so expect a dovish Fed going forward and easy money policy as well.feedback

Vincent Reinhart - Standish Mellon Asset Management

It's always been the deep irony: the Federal Reserve Chair appointment that would most reliably deliver a low path for policy rates and be market friendly was Janet Yellen, and the president just admitted that. It is attractive to have been nominated by presidents of two different parties.feedback

David Wessel

I think they would realize that anyone else would have to raise rates faster and farther than Yellen to establish his or her anti-inflation backbone. You can see how it would be to their advantage to have a dovish Fed chair. On the other hand, the politics are pretty dicey. She's not very popular with Republicans, so it would take a lot of political capital to get her [confirmation] through the Senate.feedback

Joseph Gagnon

I don't see what is in his interests to appoint someone who is going to jack up interest rates.feedback

Carter Eskew

Now I know what it must be like for an alt-right devotee to have a bad acid trip. Seemingly overnight, the once solid nationalist credentials of Donald Trump have distorted into some Sgt. Pepper-like fantasy of globalism. His steadfast admiration for Russia’s strongman has kaleidoscoped into a marshmallow pie of affection for NATO. And those rotten, no-good currency manipulators in China are today as harmless as tangerine trees and marmalade skies. Even Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve - that bastion of globalist financiers - who once should have been “ashamed” of herself has now become a diamond in the sky, and the president says he may even reappoint her to another term.feedback

Donald J. Trump

Janet Yellen should have raised [interest] rates. She's not doing it because the Obama administration and the president doesn't want her to. After listening for 10 minutes, I realized it's not so easy. I felt pretty strongly that they had a tremendous power… but it's not what you would think.feedback

Diane Swonk

If any of his budgets are really realized, they're deficit-inducing and he wants to keep interest rates low. Any president that's wanted to keep interest rates low has ended up with a lot of inflation, like Truman, Johnson and Nixon. It's interesting. This also illustrates the gap between the administration and the House and Senate. The House and Senate have consistently wanted someone more hawkish at the Fed than Janet Yellen. It doesn't surprise me one bit.feedback

Diane Swonk

Without border adjustment, you're $2.3 trillion in the hole and that means you have to move to a higher corporate tax rate.feedback

Ward McCarthy - Jefferies

His position on Yellen has changed a lot since he was candidate Trump. Now that he's President Trump, a low interest rate policy is not so bad because he wants the economy to grow well. A big focus of President Trump's objectives is trade and consequently he just doesn't want a dollar that's too strong. It's going to hurt the U.S. trade position.feedback

Michael Feroli

Giving lip service to strong dollar policy had been accepted for 20 years or more. On interest-rate policy, I think it's tricky, because arguably the third mandate of the Fed is low long-term interest rates. So I don't think just being a low-interest rate person is a problem. I don't think this is per se a threat to Fed independence, but it's definitely a little bit different than what we've become used to.feedback

Greg McBride

As president, having a steady hand at the controls of monetary policy is better than switching jockeys midrace.feedback

Scott Clemons - Brown Brothers Harriman

The norm is for presidents to observe the importance of an independent central bank. The norm is for presidents to pay lip service to a stronger dollar, almost as if it's a point of national pride. But like so much else about his presidency, he says out loud what other holders of that office have been more circumspect about.feedback

Steve Moore

Trump is walking a policy tightrope. A president of course has to adapt to changing circumstances, but he also has to honor his central campaign promises. Janet Yellen and Obamacare have to go.feedback

Carl Tannenbaum - Northern Trust

Maybe he's learning on the job. It's not easy to find somebody who is going to have credibility in that job. The confirmation process is not an assured thing these days. And the markets weigh in if they were to nominate somebody who didn't share the Fed's view of itself as independent.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We think a gradual path of increases in short-term interest rates can get us to where we need to be, but we don't want to wait too long to have that happen.feedback

Richard Koo

When Trump came up with this infrastructure spending (plan), you notice that both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer came out and welcomed that as the real pillar supporting the U.S. economy.feedback

Jan Hatzius

I think it makes some sense. Personally I don't think it's really urgent for them to start reducing the balance sheet, but assuming that you want to do this at some point in the next year or two, I think it does make some sense to get started before the leadership transition at the Fed. There will likely be a new Fed chair after early 2018, when Janet Yellen's term comes to an end and having already established a bit of a baseline path for how the balance sheet is going to be adjusted probably makes sense at that point to reduce the uncertainty that you otherwise get in that period.feedback

Jim Caron - Morgan Stanley & Co. International

If they're talking about doing it this year, then Janet Yellen is saying under the Janet Yellen Fed, they are starting the balance sheet winddown. They are not kicking the can to the next person. That's kind of setting the course for the next Fed chairperson to handle it.feedback

Josh Feinman - Deutsche Asset Management

I think the operative word here is going to be gradual. They're not going to want to go cold turkey. They don't want to do anything disruptive. When the process is underway, the Fed doesn't like to shake the trees too much. That's another reason I think they would like to get this plan articulated, announced and on its way before Yellen leaves.feedback

Mark Hamrick

This draws further negative attention to the Federal Reserve at a time when members of Congress are already sharply critical.feedback

Adam Posen - Bank of England

The Fed is going back to normal in the sense that it's not scared to do the moves that it would normally do in response to the forecast. You're nearing the end of this Fed regime and it's not just Chair (Janet) Yellen, Vice-Chair (Stanley) Fischer (who get a say), President Trump gets to appoint five members of the seven member Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the next 10 months and so you want to get this policy of tightening underway before that uncertainty kicks in.feedback

David Blitzer - S&P Dow Jones Indices

Housing and home prices continue on a generally positive upward trend. The recent action by the Federal Reserve raising the target for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point is expected to add less than a quarter percentage point to mortgage rates in the near future. Given the market's current strength and the economy, the small increase in interest rates isn't expected to dampen home buying. If we see three or four additional increases this year, rising mortgage rates could become a concern.feedback

Ric Spooner - CMC Markets

Markets appear reluctant to take the Trump disappointment too much further at this stage. With U.S. economic growth showing signs of improvement and the (Federal Reserve) clearly embarked on a monetary tightening cycle, the significant correction that has already occurred in bonds and the U.S. dollar may already reflect an adequate wind-back of the market's Trump exuberance.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Young adults who regularly or sometimes worried when they were children about care, safety or having enough to eat are also less likely to be employed, less likely to have consistent income month-to-month and less likely to pay all of their current monthly bills in full, compared with those who never or rarely worried about these concerns as children.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

The market has embraced the Trump agenda through thick and thin. Anything that looks as if that may be delayed or watered-down or that he is not the great negotiator that he campaigned on has an extended, overbought market questioning whether or not valuations at this point are correct.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

There's a real policy timing mismatch here. Yellen is moving the ball down the court, while Trump still has failed to put the ball in play.feedback

David Rosenberg - AeroFarms

My recommendation is to stop wasting your time trying to explain something that is as simple as an asset class that is priced for perfection at some points realizes that the world is not a perfect place. A president can certainly fly a drone whenever and wherever he wants, but he is never bigger than the business cycle and over time has little influence over investment returns as well.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

The different perspectives of Chairwoman Yellen and President Trump further underscore the potential for a future collision, rather than productive collaboration.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

We are so used to a market that has been underpinned by accommodative monetary policy. We have gotten away from what markets are supposed to do. They are supposed to recalibrate, take time, burn out froth and wait for the next catalyst to push the market higher.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

This research underscores the value of starting young to develop basic work habits and skills. These habits and skills help prepare people for work, help them enter the labor market sooner, meet with more success over time and be in a position to develop the more specialized skills and obtain the academic credentials that are strongly correlated with higher and steadier earnings. Ensuring that all of our kids have 'strong foundations' will help build a similarly strong foundation for the U.S. economy.feedback

Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets

I think what we're going to see is lower expenses for the regulatory costs for these banks…it's going to free up more capital. There's no need for that. Because of the toughness of the Federal Reserve they haven't been able to give it [capital] back more aggressively. We need to have an ample amount of capital, they need to be regulated, but the pendulum swung too much and now it needs to come back and it will come back.feedback

Craig Erlam

U.S. equity markets are expected to open a little higher on Tuesday, tracking broad gains in Europe. Investors continue to expect two more rate hikes this year, although the odds have slipped slightly since last week. That said, I still expect the Federal Reserve tightening cycle to be much more aggressive than other central banks over the next couple of years.feedback

John Stoltzfus - Oppenheimer Holdings

The economic environment has improved to such an extent that the Federal Reserve appears to have greater confidence and commitment to its process of interest rate normalization. After eight years of a recovery bull market, many investors (institutional and retail) who had stayed on the sidelines and away or light on equity exposure appear to be coming back into the market with some adding international exposure.feedback

George Selgin

The bigger the Fed's credit footprint, the more it interferes with the efficient employment and pricing of credit. By directing a large share of savings to purchases of longer-term MBS and Treasury securities, for example, the Fed has artificially raised both the prices of those securities, and the importance of the housing market and the federal government relative to the rest of the U.S. economy. It has also dramatically increased its portfolio's duration gap and, by so doing, the risk that it will suffer losses should it sell assets before they mature.feedback

Daan Struyven - Goldman Sachs Group

This could be important for balance sheet policy because many Republican-leaning economists have criticized quantitative easing (QE) and have expressed a preference for rapid balance sheet rundown, perhaps even through asset sales. Our forecast is that the discussion around reinvestment continues for most of this year and the plan is formally announced in December 2017. At that meeting, we expect the committee to hold the funds rate steady after hiking in both June and September. We expect the quarterly hikes to resume in March 2018.feedback

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

The markets are relaxed for two reasons: first, the Dutch voted in favour of Europe which definitely helps the European atmosphere. I am convinced the French will also vote the same. The other issue is that the US rate increase happened as expected. The rate hike is being interpreted as the US economy doing better than expected. So, a rate hike is acceptable. But much more important is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear we shouldn't worry about more rate increases any time soon.feedback

Alex Edwards - European Central Bank

The euro has reacted positively to Rutte's win, or at least it's been well supported since the result. The Fed decision and statement last night got more of a reaction - Yellen was a lot less hawkish than investors were expecting. Expect EUR/USD ranges to be fairly narrow over the next month or so in the run up to the much anticipated French elections, arguably the biggest market event of the year.feedback

Lukas Daalder

Not surprisingly, sentiment in financial markets is positively impacted, with spreads in European bonds declining and the euro rising on the back of the election outcome. Having said that, we should not overstate the impact: the rate hike that the U.S. Federal Reserve administered yesterday has been the more dominant factor in financial markets, lifting both bonds and stocks.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We're operating in an environment where the U.S. economy is performing well and risks seem pretty balanced. I think people can feel pretty good about the economic outlook.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The unemployment rate has moved way down and many more people feel optimistic about their prospects in the labor market. There's job security. We're seeing more people who are feeling free to quit their jobs, getting outside offers for other opportunities. So I think the job market, which is an important focus for us, is certainly improving.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

What we'd want to have is confidence in the economy's trajectory, a sense that the economy will make progress, that we're not overly worried about downside risks with adverse shocks that could hurt the economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Our short-term interest rate target is our key active tool of policy. We think it's much easier using that tool to communicate the stance of policy. We have much more experience with it and have a better idea of its impacts on the economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

That is a great question. I appreciate your asking it. The simple message is the economy is doing well. We are seeing more people who are feeling free to quit their jobs, getting outside offers, looking for other opportunities. I think the job market which is an important focus for us is certainly improving. We know there are problems that face particularly people with less skill and education, and in certain sectors of the economy.feedback

Jared Bernstein

The story regarding the Fed right now is less about today's expected rate hike and more about the tension between Trump's ideas and the policies that would really help the economy.feedback

Lukman Otunuga

Sentiment remains firmly bullish towards the greenback with further gains expected as speculators bet on the Federal Reserve raising U.S. interest rates repeatedly this year.feedback

Christopher Whalen

They're late. What they should have done was stopped reinvestment at the end of last year, mostly as a symbolic gesture. Then you could selectively let the (trading) desk (at the New York Fed) sell MBS when there's a rally – trickle the stuff out, get 100 to 200 billion (dollars) off the books each quarter. The street is starving. These are all signals the Fed should be paying attention to.feedback

Andrew Hollenhorst - Citigroup Global Markets
Ebrahim Rahbari - Citigroup Global Markets

Chair Yellen has previously indicated that balance sheet reduction will occur once the FOMC has 'confidence the economy is on a solid course'. Any calendar or policy rate threshold guidance relative to market expectations of Q1 2018 would provoke a market reaction.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

If you let the balance sheet start to run off, you'd see a rise in long-term interest rates. You'd have gotten an immediate steepening of the yield curve. The Fed did it somewhat backwards.feedback

Christopher Whalen

The problem is, they should be adjusting the balance sheet first. By keeping all of this duration locked up at the Fed, they're actually keeping rates artificially low, so there's no response to policy. When they change the fed funds, the whole curve should move, but it doesn't.feedback

Mark Hamrick

Right now the number one question is what is the likelihood that rates could be rising more aggressively than what people and investors currently expect. The two words that Janet Yellen seems to be voicing more often lately is 'policy uncertainty.' That is as close to directly referencing the outcome of the election ... as she is going to get.feedback

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

With the economy improving a rate increase is doable, but what's much more important is what comes next. I believe Janet Yellen will continue to play her rate game, but you musn't be scared that there are going to be further radical rate increases. Her rate changes will be gradual. No one will get hurt because she knows full well that with the world's debt as it is, a sharp rate increase is not manageable.feedback

James A. Wilcox

The thing that makes it relatively easy for the Fed is that fiscal policy usually takes a long time. Financial markets don't wait for all of that to happen, of course, but the actual spending and employment effects – they usually take a while to show up.feedback

Jon Faust

The thought that by tweaking the funds rate you could send some kind of political message is crazy, and they know that, and they're not going to do it. On the other hand, this is the first first quarter in about six years that isn't looking scary, so it's not surprising they would be considering a rate increase.feedback

Craig Erlam

Traders appear to be in wait and see mode at the start of the week, with attention firmly on the central bank meetings this week, most notably the Federal Reserve on Wednesday when we'll find out if policy makers successfully guided market expectations in the right direction or went too far.feedback

Masahiro Ichikawa - Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management

The markets are focusing on when the Fed will raise rates next time or the pace of its rate hike, so the tone of Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be closely watched.feedback

Gary Cohn

The Federal Reserve is an independent agency and they operate as such. They have their economic data, which they look at and they are trying to always modulate economic growth with inflation, with the work force. I think the Federal Reserve has been doing a good job in doing that. The Fed will do what they need to do. And we respect the powers of the Fed.feedback

Dan Suzuki - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

In the near term, the commentary and the dot plot could drive a short-term movement in the market, but I wouldn't think it's going to be the spark of a long lasting sell-off in the market, given the macro backdrop is very supportive. But that doesn't mean you couldn't get a 1 percent down move on the day, if [Fed Chair Janet Yellen] sounds more hawkish or the dot plot comes in more hawkish than the market is expecting.feedback

Sam Kamin

We sort of have gotten numb to the fact that this money has come through the state and through the federal reserve system (through bank deposits) and then to other organizations.feedback

Bill Gross

In China, the ratio has more than doubled in the past decade to nearly 300 percent. Since 2007, China has added $24 trillion worth of debt to its collective balance sheet. Over the same period, the U.S. and Europe only added $12 trillion each. Keeping the cost of credit at a yield that is not too high, nor too low, but just right. (Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen is a modern day Goldilocks.feedback

Karl Schamotta - Global Payments

The Federal Reserve is a swing central bank right now. It is the one that is prone to change. [The] key question is whether we have alternate interest rate hikes scheduled throughout the year.feedback

Sean Spicer

Let me get back to you on that one. I don't have any comment on the Federal Reserve.feedback

Joel Kan

Mortgage rates increased last week as remarks by several key Federal Reserve officials strongly signaled a March rate increase. This was further supported by a few solid economic data releases, including GDP, inflation and manufacturing gauges.feedback

Zhu Guangyao

Internationally, I think the big challenge is uncertainty. So I see some uncertainty firstly is the Trump administration economic policy, that is, what will happen and what impact to the US economy and the global economy. Second uncertainty certainly is the Federal Reserve: How they will make the decision for interest rates. And the most challenging situation is anti-trade and some (cases happening) with geopolitical risk.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

At our meeting later this month, the (Federal Open Market) Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. Given how close we are to meeting our statutory goals (of maximum employment and price stability), and in the absence of new developments that might materially worsen the economic outlook, the process of scaling back accommodation (raising interest rates) likely will not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016.feedback

Scott Redler

The market does have a bit of an exhaustive feel. I think the bears would love to think with two major events like the Trump address to Congress and the Snap IPO, with heavy valuations, and now Yellen pretty much signaling three rate hikes will happen, it would be the kind of week they sell the news and we finally get a corrective phase. Traders are trying to stay with the rally but the higher we go, the harder it is.feedback

Mark Cabana - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

This is quite unusual in relation to recent history. It does make one wonder if there was some kind of coordination, intentionally, to talk up the market. The last time we heard from Yellen and [Fed Vice Chair Stanley] Fischer, they were discussing a gradual approach. Just the drum beat of Fed speakers this week shows they at least wanted to have the option of going at this meeting. The fact the market is handling it means it would be disappointed and quite surprised if it didn't hike. That makes you think the Fed will follow through.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I really liked the form of reasoning. [Economics] has a way of analyzing issues that is systematic and it appealed to the math side of me.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

It came together that my concern about people and jobs, and my love of math, found a happy marriage in economics.feedback

Ian Shepherdson - Pantheon Macroeconomics

The Fed will hike unless next week's payroll report is calamitous. That's unlikely, so we expect rates to rise.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Fiscal and regulatory policies – which are of course the responsibility of the administration and the Congress – are best suited to address such adverse structural trends.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy has essentially met the employment portion of our mandate and inflation is moving closer to our 2 percent objective. [We] realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.feedback

Zoltan Varga

If the good mood returns next week, OTP could rise again.feedback

Roberto Perli - Cornerstone Macro

I think Yellen probably still would prefer to be cautious, but it is becoming hard for her to corral the growing number of FOMC members who prefer to move when, like now, there is a clear opportunity.feedback

Patrick McHenry

Despite the clear message delivered by President Donald Trump in prioritizing America's interest in international negotiations, it appears that the Federal Reserve continues negotiating international regulatory standards for financial institutions among global bureaucrats in foreign lands without transparency, accountability, or the authority to do so. This is unacceptable.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

All are on the same page, including hawks and doves, and especially Dudley. Hopefully, we'll see some consistency in the commentary of Brainard tomorrow, and if we see something neutral to slightly hawkish from Yellen Friday, you'll have to lock it in. The fact you had Harker, Williams, and Dudley all basically speaking at the same time and trying to make it clear a rate hike is coming is interesting four days before the blackout begins.feedback

Andrew Liveris

All the CEOs that were here today and in the last meeting are very encouraged by the pro-business policies of President Trumpand his cabinet.feedback

Richard Clarida - Pimco

March would make a lot of sense to me but if the Yellen Fed wants to get that priced in, they've got some work to do. This is a Fed that expects that if the data play out, they're going to be hiking three times this year. The only question for them is do they want to tee up the March meeting so that it's not a surprise or do they want to be really bold, not tee up the market and then hike in March.feedback

Gina Sanchez

I think the trend is still going to be for dollar strength, but I think that this dollar weakness is interesting and telling, because Yellen was really out talking the dollar up. I mean, she was making fairly hawkish comments, and that should lead to a stronger dollar.feedback

Boris Schlossberg

The market is not buying what Janet Yellen is saying. And that is actually a very, very telling sign. When the Fed chief says, pretty much unabashedly, that she's going to go to three rate hikes, and she sort of talks up the economy, and yet the market remains skeptical, that's telling me something. That tells me that both markets remain skeptical about the continuity of this potential growth as we go forward.feedback

Loretta Mester - Federal Reserve

The return to primarily Treasuries will take some time, but it will be welcome because ... it may help guard against future calls for the Federal Reserve to enter into the realm of fiscal policy.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

[Yellen] made it very clear that the economic data matters, and the trajectory of monetary policy is predicated on better economic data, along with inflation moving higher. We're going to be watching the data releases that come out tomorrow.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Nothing going on in these international discussions binds us to carry out things in our rule making process.feedback

Andy Barr

Maybe we shouldn't be expecting so much from unconventional policies.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I think central banks all over the world have recognized that an independent central bank that can focus on the long-term health of the economy . . . gives rise to a better economic environment.feedback

Neil Massa - Manulife Asset Management

She (Yellen) has made it clear that she wants to raise rates. Before she spoke yesterday, the March meeting wasn't in play, but now that is definitely on the table and I think the numbers today bode well for her to do that.feedback

Jeb Hensarling

After eight years, there is zero evidence that zero interest rates and a bloated Fed balance sheet lead to a healthy economy. Clearly, Americans have a newfound expectation that our economy will grow healthier with different policies coming out of Washington.feedback

Jeb Hensarling

We must be vigilant to ensure that our central bankers do not one day become our central planners. There is zero evidence that zero interest rates and a bloated Fed balance sheet lead to a healthy economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy has recovered more quickly, for example, than ... European Union economies have in the aftermath of the crisis. The Federal Reserve has put in place highly accommodative monetary policies meant to spur spending in the economy and restore low unemployment or to achieve the goal of maximizing employment and price stability as assigned to us by Congress. I believe we're coming very close to achieving those objectives, and monetary policy remains accommodative. Economic growth has been quite disappointing.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy is recovering from a very severe crisis. We've put in place stronger financial regulation that has forced our banks to build up their capital buffers to deal with problem loans and to strengthen themselves to the point where they have been to support economic growth and recovery in our economy. The Federal Reserve has put in place highly accommodative monetary policies meant to spur spending in the economy and restore low unemployment or to achieve the goal of maximizing employment and price stability as assigned to us by Congress.feedback

Takuya Takahashi - Daiwa Securities Group

The market took heart from Yellen's comments and such positive sentiment will likely last throughout the day.feedback

Ayako Sera - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust

There are no big factors preventing the Fed from raising rates in March. Unless the emerging markets become volatile or the U.S. economic data shows weakness, the March rate hike is highly plausible.feedback

Rodrigo Catril - National Australia Bank

Triggered a sell-off in U.S. Treasury yields and a broad dollar rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March.feedback

Avery Shenfeld

There's a nod to further tightening ahead and the risks of waiting too long, and there is a reference to the need at upcoming meetings to evaluate if the economy is evolving in a way that makes further hikes appropriate. Note the use of the plural on 'meetings,' so there was no specific allusion to a March hike in the statement, and Yellen also emphasized that any hikes will be 'gradual.feedback

Paul Christopher

People want to put money into that because they want to believe that growth will be stronger, that inflation will be more of an issue - a more normal economy, in other words. If they wanted to raise rates a third time and they wanted to start priming the pump or preparing the markets, especially the equity markets, now would be the time to do it.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Consumer spending has continued to rise at a healthy pace, supported by steady income gains, increases in the value of households' financial assets and homes, favorable levels of consumer sentiment, and low interest rates. Of course, it is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity.feedback

James Angel

Often politicians will want central banks to do things that are short term expedient, but long term dangerous for the economy. So, for example, politicians often want central banks to print lots of money, because in the short run printing money is like taking a drink, it feels really good, but if you print too much, you'll have an awful hangover later.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We will continue to coordinate with the Treasury Department, which is itself a member of several international forums related to financial services, such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, as well as with the other U.S. supervisory agencies that participate in various international forums.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

In exercising our longstanding authorities and responsibilities for consulting with our foreign counterparts, we share the objective that the whole U.S. government must work constructively to ensure a strong, stable U.S. economy and financial system. Strong regulatory standards enhance the stability of the U.S. financial system. By participating in the development of international regulatory standards, the Federal Reserve can influence the standards in ways that promote the financial stability of the United States and the competitiveness of U.S. firms.feedback

Omer Esiner - Commonwealth Foreign Exchange

The tone is overall more hawkish than what the market had expected. The market seems to be under-pricing an upcoming rate hike. This doesn't mean they will move in March, but the Fed wants to have the option to move.feedback

John Briggs - NatWest

She's less cautious, that's for sure. Normally, Yellen talks about downside risks. She just talked about the upside risk.feedback

Ward McCarthy - Jefferies

She's being more balanced rather than overwhelmingly dovish and consequentially means it's broadly hawkish.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise. At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. I can't tell you which meeting it would be. Changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. It is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold.feedback

Kathleen Brooks - GAIN Capital

The euro is being propped up by real weakness in the pound which is allowing it to maintain its gains against the U.S. dollar. While the weaker pound is helping to lift the euro, we also saw weak data out of the euro zone today which might show that the European recovery story has hit the skids.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We don't want to base current policy on speculation about what may come down the line. We will wait to gain greater clarity on policy changes. We want to wait to start this process until the process of normalization is well underway. I can say emphatically, that partisan politics plays no role in our decisions about the appropriate stance of monetary policy. I believe we would have a much weaker economy if … we had followed the dictates of that rule.feedback

Simon Derrick - Bank of New York

We're still early into the new administration so we're yet to get details of fiscal strategy and that's going to have an important impact on how the Fed guides policy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

That's right. It's too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold.feedback

Martin van Vliet - ING Group

If Yellen wants March to be a live meeting as other Fed officials have suggested it is, she will have to adopt a more hawkish tone beyond the usual reference to data dependency, . Currently we calculate a market implied probability of around 17 percent for a March rate hike.feedback

Jakob Christensen - Danske Bank

This (inflation data) is important in that it continues a trend we have seen and fits in with this global reflation theme. 2.5 percent is still short of the 3 percent target that the central bank has but if this trend continues, the central bank will have to consider tightening monetary policy. There are some structural factors we should keep in mind - one is the impact of the fear of terrorism on tourism, and trade with Russia is also slow to pick up.feedback

Chris Weston

Fundamentally, the U.S. banks are simply being used as a vehicle to express reflation and 'Trumponomics'. Although last night really belonged to Janet Yellen whose prepared comments that waiting too long to tighten would be 'unwise' and a further review its policy stance will take place at its upcoming meetings.feedback

Peter Tuz - Chase

It's actually a very wise move to try to get the rate hikes going sooner rather than later to cut off the potential for inflation, although I really don't see inflation picking up all that much over the next year or so.feedback

Alan Gayle - RidgeWorth Investments

Yellen seemed to have her dancing shoes on this morning and was able to steer clear of any comments that might upset the market. In so doing, the stock market has been able to hold onto its gains.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Precisely when we take an action -- March, May or June -- I can't tell you. I would say every meeting is live. I would also hope that fiscal policy changes will be consistent with putting U.S. fiscal accounts on a sustainable trajectory. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity.feedback

Andre Bakhos - Janlyn Capital

The market is pricing in good times ahead but the question is whether the administration is going to be able to deliver on the promises made. The world listens to what Yellen has to say and her speech does have a potential to create an interesting reality check.feedback

Henry Croft - Accendo Markets

It's mostly those sectors that are more FX influenced, importing and exporting to the United States, that will be impacted (by Yellen's speech). A weaker dollar so far today has seen them fall off.feedback

Kaneo Ogino

People are just waiting for Yellen's testimony, and depending on what she says, the dollar could test the upside again.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

Yellen does not need to say anything in detail. I think she'll be very cautious, so currencies might not move so much. She might suggest some possibility of the Fed hiking rates in March, but I think that risk is very small.feedback

Jon Faust

There are just a lot of ways this could go wrong, like spinning off toward a trade war.feedback

Kumiko Ishikawa

The news weighed on the dollar against the yen because it's a hard situation to understand, and also to understand what kind of broader fallout it will have.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

We're increasing the probability of rate hikes. The ECB is cutting [quantitative easing] QE this year, the Bank of England is going to end QE this year and possibly raise rates. You have the Bank of Japan getting tested every night in their yield curve control experiment. I think that central banks don't matter is unrealistic.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

The market's thinking central banks aren't going to matter this year. I don't see that as realistic.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

I do think the market underestimates that a bit. For 10 years, global central banks have been easing. I think she's going to want to demonstrate the need for the Fed's independence, so I expect comments on that, particularly given it's been called into question by some Republicans and even the president himself. She'll continue to talk up three rate hikes this year, and she'll continue to suggest the Fed remains on track to raise rates gradually.feedback

John Stoltzfus - Oppenheimer Holdings

I don't think Janet Yellen will provide anything of shock value. I think if she's perceived in any way of being more hawkish, it's probably because the market has had an awfully good run here. When she senses animal spirits in the market, she'll step up to the plate and indicate the Fed can raise rates as well as lower rates, and just cool the animal spirits a little.feedback

John Stoltzfus - Oppenheimer Holdings

The market is up 49 percent since that high, or 4.36 percent annualized. That's not a raging bull market. it's a recovering market and it's climbed a wall of worry. Now I think we're getting ready for a bull market because we're getting rid of the monetary policy stimulus. We're moving toward normalization and we're moving toward fiscal stimulus.feedback

Ian Lyngen

There's been a lot of chatter about how she's going to put March back on the table. Of course, she's going to say every meeting is live. I think it's a matter of nuance; how much jawboning does she attempt to do; how adamantly does she stress that a March rate hike is a possibility, how emphatically is she going to tell us each meeting is in play?feedback

Mark Grant - Hilltop

I think what the Fed says at this point is, for all practical purposes, irrelevant, because Mr. Trump is going to be able to appoint three members of the Fed. I think they're going to be business people and the days of an academic, economist Fed are going to be over. I also believe that Trump and company, as I call them, know as they put in the infrastructure or the military expansion that there's going to be a balance to the balance sheet, and … that the new people on the Fed are going to keep interest rates low.feedback

Christopher Whalen

The Republicans are feeling their oats in terms of pushing their agenda, which goes very much contrary to what the board's been doing for the last few years. She'll defend the Fed's position in what they have done to date. But ultimately, it's not her job to tell them what to do. The institutional memory of the Fed during that battle of Dodd-Frank is when they came very close to having all their regulatory powers stripped away. They're going to have to be very aware of the political winds, because they've clearly changed.feedback

Dick Bove

The elimination of Daniel Tarullo as a force within the Fed and American banking is a very positive step toward real deregulation in core banking. It suggests that the banks will be able to operate more freely in the financial markets in obtaining funds and manufacturing products. This is a big, big plus.feedback

Dick Bove

The opportunity to rein in the Fed will exist. More importantly, the Tarullo regulations can be eased. The ability of banks to acquire raw material and make loans based on free market considerations will be enhanced. The Fed's stranglehold on the banking industry and its ability to function freely will be eased.feedback

William Lee

The new supervisory emphasis will likely reshape the way in which the Fed implements Dodd-Frank requirements to relieve smaller banks of some of the associated compliance burdens and costs. The riskiness of bank activities may play a growing role in setting capital levels, rather than stress test results.feedback

Hussein Sayed

The Fed's statement on February 1 didn't provide any additional clues on monetary policy direction, and as of last week, markets were only pricing in 13.3 percent chance for a rate hike in March and 23.7 percent in May. ... it's going to be interesting on which side will Yellen move the needle.feedback

Mark Grant - Hilltop

So all this talk of a three interest rate or four interest rate hike, in my opinion, is baloney.feedback

Danielle DiMartino Booth

It is a culture where you're not allowed to raise your hand and say, You know what? There's something wrong with this picture.feedback

Koji Fukaya - FPG Securities

Trump has just taken a positive approach to tax reforms and infrastructure spending. It remains to be seen if this has any impact on Yellen, as the Trump administration's lack of policy clarity seemed like a factor that made the Fed hesitant to raise rates.feedback

David Woo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

A growing number of investors are worried that potential trade wars with Mexico and China could lead to tariffs and higher prices. With many investors having loaded up on Trump trades after the elections, their willingness to continue to give the benefit of doubt to the new administration appears to be wearing thin.feedback

Tom Porcelli - RBC Capital Markets

Given the uncertainty of timing on the fiscal agenda and the relatively modest uptick in inflation thus far this year, we think it will be difficult for the committee to get enough members onboard for a hike in March. But Yellen could certainly move the 'perception' needle on this.feedback

Mark Zandi - Moody's Analytics

A lot of what the Federal Reserve will do this year will depend on what President Trump and Congress do, and at the moment we have no idea what will emerge from Congress. Until there is some clarity about what President Trump and Congress have in mind, I think the Fed is going to be cautious.feedback

Diane Swonk

The Fed has been pretty consistent that it wants the rate hikes to come at a gradual pace, but that could change if Fed officials believe the budget-and-tax package that Trump is pushing is too big and coming too late in the economic cycle, with the economy already at full employment. She is going to want to fly under the radar as much as possible this week.feedback

Jack Ablin

I actually think Trump and Yellen are on the same page. I think they want the same thing. Let the economy run hot and drag your feet raising rates.' I don't see a lot of controversy. The controversy could be around the independence of the Fed and [Sen.] Rand Paul wanting to audit the Fed.feedback

Daniel Tarullo - Federal Reserve

On or around April 5. It has been a great privilege to work with former Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen during such a challenging period.feedback

Justin Lederer - Cantor Fitzgerald

You have Yellen, and we have to wait two or three weeks to see what the tax announcement looks like.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

I think ideally, [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen, in her models, wants to raise three times for the next three years and get to her magic 3 percent. They said they're not even going to raise once until June. I think she is going to be a little more hawkish next week. I think she wants to give herself flexibility that March is a real possibility. [And] I think the market is not set up for that.feedback

John Briggs - NatWest

Yellen is next week. So what's going to entice you to put capital to work right now, and we're in fiscal limbo and any large decisions you make can get turned around.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

Regardless of what Harker thinks we know that it really only matters what Yellen, Fischer and Dudley think. As its clear that the Fed only likes to raise rates on days where there is a press conference and they are scheduled for 4 this year at the same time they want to hike 3 times, they better get moving then. We still are calling for a March hike but the fed funds futures market barely blinked after Harker.feedback

Patrick Bennett

Quite clearly the U.S. economy is doing ok. The Federal Reserve will be raising rates further this year. We think the market probably underprices what the Fed is going to do.feedback

James Woods - Rivkin Securities

A strong reading in the payrolls data above 200,000 coupled with a rise in wage growth could put the March 15th (Federal Reserve) meeting in serious contention for a hike despite uncertainty around the potential flow on effects from Trump's stated economic policies.feedback

Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

No one anticipates that Janet Yellen will add restrictive measure at 2 p.m.. However, analysts will search for clues for whether the Committee has an inclination to do so in six weeks. The limitations of the text give the FOMC little opportunity this afternoon to convey a discernible shift of sentiment within its ivory tower. Using the futures market as a guide, investors currently estimate the probability of adding restrictive measures at the next gathering at 36 percent. As a reminder, the 'dot plots' extrapolate to three separate rounds of tightening for 2017.feedback

Craig Erlam

In the absence of a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen following today's announcement, investors will be left to pour over the statement that it released alongside the decision to see whether views have changed on the path of interest rates this year since the last meeting. Given that the Fed is none-the-wiser when it comes to President Donald Trump's spending and tax plans, I would imagine the views of policy makers will be unchanged since the middle of December and they will reiterate an intention to hike three times.feedback

David Bahnsen

Yellen kind of had control of where things were going all by herself, and now we see President Trump and the postelection kind of movement and this anticipation, that's really running the show. What happens when we get these two forces going against each other, is perhaps some movement forward in fiscal stimulus and then some tightening in monetary. That's our big thesis that we think 2017 has. We don't know is what that tug of war between the two persons will look like.feedback

Peter Schiff

The debt bomb is going to explode. I think the [Federal Reserve] is going to try to inflate its way out of this problem, but it's going to inflate its way into a bigger one. You don't help the economy by spending money. To the extent that we need to repair our infrastructure, that's a cost that we have to bear. The fact that it creates jobs, that's not a good thing because we're diverting resources that we might otherwise have been able to use more productively to make necessary repairs to our infrastructure.feedback

Larry McDonald - Amazon.com

There's disconnect between [Fed Chair] Janet Yellen and the Fed and Trump. This past week we saw something very interesting. Yellen was talking the dollar up and Trump was talking the dollar down. That's highly unusual, so the market's going to be looking if there's a continuation of that disconnect.feedback

David Roche - Hotels.com

A lot of [Trump's policies], such as border tax and spending more money in a full employment economy, while the act of an economic ignoramus, are nevertheless going to boost inflation, which means, Mrs. Yellen, who is not the world's most exciting person but is certainly not an economic ignoramus, will be increasing interest rates, which pushes up the dollar.feedback

Bill Stone

The Federal Reserve is likely going to hike we think twice, but you know they talk about three times. All the better frankly for the financials anyway. And, valuations are not aligned despite that big run and I think you see the same thing about energy.feedback

Larry Fink - BlackRock

I do believe there will be a great deal of tension between the President-elect and the Federal Reserve on these issues. We should all be aware we are going to live in a world right now of a stronger dollar.feedback

Wang Chunying - State Administration of Foreign Exchange

The process of U.S. Fed rate rises as well as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar needs more observation. As everyone remembers, the Fed was widely expected to raise rates three or four times in 2016 after the rate increase at the end of 2015, but it only raised it once.feedback

Koji Fukaya - FPG Securities

Yellen did not particularly talk about speeding up the pace of rate hikes, which may have sounded as less hawkish for some.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

As seen in the US treasury market response to a still dovish Janet Yellen and the rise in rates after her speech, the same thing is happening in longer term bonds in Europe after the very dovish commentary from Mario Draghi.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

It's fair to say, the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal. As the economy approaches our objectives, it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

After the weekend and Monday, it's going to be very interesting. What happens when we get to brass tacks will be interesting for sure.feedback

Aaron Kohli - BMO Capital Markets

She certainly gave the market a big push. Just looking at March probabilities, they went form an 18 percent chance (of a rate hike) to 25. The market went from pricing slightly less than two hikes to slightly more than two hikes in 2017.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

Next week we'll have 2-, 5- and 7-year auctions, a little bit of supply, and a light data week, so the focus is going to be on Trump, and for the most part, the first stuff that comes out of the gate is probably going to be (bond) market negative and it will be risk positive.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

I don't think we're going to see a huge surge in optimism again. We're not going to get another leg off of it, but I also don't think we're going to go back to where we were in October.feedback

Aaron Kohli - BMO Capital Markets

There's a short base that will get even bolder if rates get to that level. I think it's very possible you get that kind of spike up. What I would suggest is as soon as that happens you might go the other way.feedback

Simon Quijano-Evans - Commerzbank

Essentially the big part is how much they will actually hike this year - instead of two (rate rises) it could be three now. It does indicate that U.S. dollar strength seems to be staying in place, whether that is being driven by the reflation story in the U.S. or resulting from a more hawkish Fed, does not really matter.feedback

Jeremy Stretch - CIBC World Markets

It will be interesting to see whether (ECB President Mario) Draghi is pressed in the briefing on any degree of dissent within the council.feedback

Jeremy Stretch - CIBC World Markets

We have washed out a few positions this week and we're back to thinking about the underlying fundamentals, . Yellen's comments are interesting and constructive overall ... but the market does not want to be caught long ahead of the president-elect speaking (on Friday). For now it is cautious dollar buying rather than anything stronger.feedback

Masahiro Ayukai - Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities

Yellen spelled out fairly clearly that the Fed is going to raise rates a few times a year to three percent.feedback

Kit Juckes

Of all the speakers we're getting, either from Davos or from less ostentatious spots, the one I'm going to listen to most for now will probably still be Janet Yellen. As the U.S. economy approaches full employment, as wages rise but inflation rises nearly as quickly, how hawkish the Fed dares to be will determine how much the dollar rises.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Figuring out what the neutral interest rate is and setting the right path toward it is not like setting the thermostat in a house: You can't just set the temperature at 68 degrees and walk away.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy is vast and vastly complex, and its path can take surprisingly twists and turns.feedback

Junya Tanase - JPMorgan Chase Bank

If the US government officials further talk down the US dollar, the greenback could weaken and the correlation to the interest rate differentials may end.feedback