Front National


Last quote about Front National

Benoît Dillet
The first is very much on this idea of whether the Front National will remain a far-right party or not. The second is whether the FN should ask to leave the European Union, or at least have a
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Sep 21 2017
Front National has been commented on by 248 key people in the news. You can find all of them on this page with their statements. People who have been most quoted about Front National are: Emmanuel Macron, Natalie Nougayrède, Marine Le Pen and Diego Iscaro. For instance, the most recent quote from Emmanuel Macron is: “To those who have voted for me to bar the National Front, I know it's not a blank cheque. I am aware of our disagreements. To those who voted for Le Pen, they have expressed anger and disarray. I will do everything so that they no longer have any reasons to vote for the extremes.”.
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All quotes about Front National

Nick Clegg

Populism has not been defeated in mainland Europe, but it does appears to have been contained. We were told a few months ago that [Geert] Wilders would win in the Netherlands, that Le Pen would take the [French] presidency and pull France out of the euro, and that Angela Merkel's position was in doubt. None of those things have happened. Yet in Britain, a revolution overturned four decades of EU membership, and in the US a completely unsuitable candidate was elected

Laurent Berger - Confédération Française Démocratique du Travail

There's a mentality in France that says we should cut off the heads of those at the top. And there's also a French tendency to focus on things that could go wrong. I have no desire to be among those who keep saying, None of this will work.' It has to work. Because if it doesn't, we'll wind up with Le Pen in another five years. And things will be much, much

Jerome Sainte-Marie

From the first round of the presidential election, we entered an implacable, inevitable mechanism which would lead to the triumph of the one who was chosen to defeat Marine Le

Pascal Gannat

We've got to redefine populism. We have to define for ourselves. Marine Le Pen was afraid of defining herself as of the

Naomi Klein

It is more Le Pen equals David Duke [former leader of the Ku Klux Klan]. If David Duke got the percentage of the vote that Le Pen got, we would be terrified, as well we should be. The UK election really showed the power of leading with substance and ideas, rather than slick packaging and fear. The more May tried to exploit people's fear and shock – telling them they might need to give up their privacy and human rights to fight terror, that they should delegate their rights to her – the more [Corbyn's] message of hope, that positive 'yes' looked like the better option to many

Kirk Hawkins

If we had a right[-wing] populist–if this were [former Peruvian President] Alberto Fujimori or even a … Donald Trump or a Marine Le Pen, the [Venezuelan] economy wouldn't look like it does right now. Populism interacts with other features of the political environment to give you certain kinds of

Vladimir Putin

No hackers can influence election campaigns in any country of Europe, Asia or America. We are ready to receive any person, always. If Madame Le Pen asked to meet us, why would we want to refuse her? The more so since she always publicly spoke out for developing relations with our country. It would be strange for us to refuse

Jeremy Gilbert

The party’s loss of support in post-industrial areas dates back to Blair and can no longer be ignored. A fourth way is needed, and Corbyn might have cracked it. It’s only now we are beginning to realise how much the world changed in 2016. The UK voted for Brexit, the US elected Trump, Marine Le Pen emerged as a serious contender for the Elysée. Less obvious at the time was that a swath of former Labour voters in the north and Midlands, who had voted for Ukip in recent elections, began an unexpected journey into the Tory

Florian Hense - Berenberg

Macron and Merkel seemed more aligned than I expected, with Merkel even saying she wouldn't exclude treaty changes, which the market welcomed. The axis between Germany and France is even more crucial over the next couple of years because if the two don't sit together and reform the euro zone, we are probably going to have Le Pen in five years' time

Jocelyn Evans

With internet polling, the expectation is that the social desirability bias should drop off. There are simply a lot more people happy to click 'Le Pen' rather than say

Bruno Jeanbart - Opinionway

Before 2007 it was very difficult to find them in the polls–they didn't want to say it. After 2007 and the fact that Jean-Marie Le Pen retired and let Marine Le Pen be the candidate, it was easier. It was not perfect, but

Emmanuel Macron

To those who have voted for me to bar the National Front, I know it's not a blank cheque. I am aware of our disagreements. To those who voted for Le Pen, they have expressed anger and disarray. I will do everything so that they no longer have any reasons to vote for the

Ernie Cecilia

With the French election, I think it's not so much about Macron winning, but rather Le Pen

Stephen Roach

It would have been a horrific, one-off bloodbath that probably would have lasted more than a few days. It takes a disaster scenario out of the equation which of course would have been a Le Pen victory and a dismantling of the euro zone as we know it. This still doesn't change the fundamental, difficult problems that Europe has and figuring out how to grow again, how to be competitive and be an active participant in a global economy which has left Europe

Marta Lorimer

There are a huge number of people who don't feel represented by either of the two candidates. This is not the story of rise and decline of populism, as so many people say it is. What we're looking at here is the complete fragmentation of France. More than just expressing the fact that the alternative to Le Pen is not very likeable, voting blank or spoiling the ballot undermines the future president from the

Sylvain Brouard

Clearly the context has changed. There was a large strong, mobilization against Jean-Marie Le Pen, no one was making a case for abstention or spoiled

Emily Mansfield

Marine Le Pen has been very clear about her desire to detoxify the National Front, to move it a bit closer to the mainstream and to become more electable. And I think she's proved today that she hasn't succeeded in this so this might well lead to more calls from people on the right side of the party to take a harder line on social issues and other

Mathieu Brichard

I'm pissed, for two reasons: First, we had to vote for a president that we do not want, and second because Marine Le Pen scored twice as much as her father in 2002. There are people who need more protection than I do and who would have been impacted in a very bad way if Le Pen had become

Michael Roth

It mustn't become normal that right-wing extremists and populists achieve such strong results. If Macron fails, then the next president will be Marine Le Pen and we need to prevent this at all

James Shields

The Front National set itself a project to win the battle of

Emmanuel Macron

I'm sorry, Madame Le Pen; France deserves better than you. What class!feedback

Olivier Peguy

This presidential election has marked a turnaround in the French political landscape. Marine Le Pen speaks of a restructuring of political life, but it remains to be seen how this will manifest itself at the ballot box during the legislative elections in

Joël Gombin

It seems improbable. The Front National is a family party, and very legitimist. But the strategy she has adopted and its principal architect, Florian Philippot, could well be

Sigmar Gabriel

If [Mr Macron] should fail, Ms Le Pen will assume the presidency five years from now and the European project will be thrown to the

Valerie Pecresse

If Marine Le Pen is elected 30 London-based companies ready to relocate to the Paris region have told us they would give up their

Mathieu Laine

By defeating Marine Le Pen and winning the French presidency, the centrist can help bring an end to the age of anger that has fuelled European extremism. French election 2017: latest news and

Jean-Paul Duclos

I'm here tonight because I was determined that Le Pen had to be defeated. But I don't want him to be able to do everything he wants. I want him kept in check by parliament. His reforms would uberise the

Dean Turner - UBS

The headlines will focus on the result, but it is important to recognise Ms Le Pen looks to have picked up around 35pc of the vote. Macron is about to assume the presidency of a nation that is still very divided. Attention will now turn to June's parliamentary elections; a fair degree of success is needed here for the new president, if his economic reforms are going to see the light of

Edouard Lecerf

Macron's strength is that even if he isn't the first choice for the 50 per cent of the first-round voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round, he is still seen as acceptable by many of them, whereas Marine Le Pen isn'

Martine Nurit

There was no choice. I couldn't vote for Le Pen. You're not going to vote for the

Jean-Marie Le Pen

It is the problems of the euro, of Europe, of pensions which have dragged down the campaign of Madame Le Pen, I

Jean-Philippe Sacquepey

The Le Pen family is descended from Joan of Arc. I voted for Marine - the heart of Joan of Arc still

Karine Bartier

There are too many immigrants. France is already in such a difficult position - how are we supposed to welcome more people with such misery? At least with Le Pen, we have a chance at change. Things can't get any worse

James Shields

Many left-wing voters have difficulty in endorsing a Macron program they see as too right-leaning. Even when confronted with the prospect of a Trump or a Le Pen win, parts of the American and French left have shown themselves too irreconcilable to come

Rogers Brubaker

I don't get involved with what the pope should say to his followers. I don't think religions should tell the French people how to vote. This is a Christianism–not a substantive Christianity. It's a secularized Christianity as culture … It's a matter of belonging rather than believing. That reflects what's happened in the intervening time: This very successful move of Marine Le Pen to so-called 'de-demonize' her party. Survey data show that over the last decade or so, she's been able to increase her Catholic vote, probably because the party has changed its

Alexis Massart

Even if he wins 60 percent of the vote, that does not mean that 60 percent of the French have voted for Emmanuel Macron. A part of that 60 percent voted against Marine Le

Simon Pastor

I will vomit after I cast the vote, but it is my responsibility to vote for Macron. … Macron is an adversary, but Le Pen is the

Géraldine John

I don't think Macron has what it takes to be a good president. But better him than Le Pen. We have to choose between different diseases. Hope it won't be the

Monique Guckert

We didn't vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen because he scared us. His ideas were too fascist, too racist. It was too

Marc Etienne Lansade

He drove her crazy. Women understand Marine Le Pen, she's divorced, she has three children, she works – she's a modern

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

The opinion polls definitely have not reflected reality in recent times and last year. But in the case of France, the belief among stock exchange traders here is very clear – Mr Macron will win the election. We can't exclude the risk that Madam Le Pen will make it, but the likelihood clearly is that it will be Macron, and the stock exchange is happy about that!feedback

Mitch Goldberg

The rally we had following the first round of the French election on April 23 sets investors up for major disappointment if far-right leader Le Pen

Neena Mishra

Macron's first-round victory sparked a 'risk-on' rally in the markets around the world. Investors are already betting that political risks have disappeared and have been pouring money into European ETFs. The European Union can survive without Britain, but not without France. France is a core member of the union. If Le Pen wins, markets around the world would start pricing in Frexit

Mitch Goldberg

Once the event passes and investors see that the lights are still on, those assets will probably just sell off on a Macron victory, or have a quick pop up on a Le Pen win and then sell

Jean-Francois Julliard - Greenpeace

Marine Le Pen doesn't respect liberty, doesn't push for equality for all and she doesn't show any fraternity for those who need it. So this is our way of reminding everybody they all need to mobilize against the National Front, to defend these values and to go and vote on

Emmanuel Macron

Madame Le Pen speaks for no one. Madame Le Pen exploits anger and hatred. I'm not going to lament our democracy. In the second round, you choose the candidate who perhaps was not your first

Mathieu Kassovitz

The risk is abstention, which can easily push the majority toward Le

Craig Erlam

While Le Pen was widely seen as being better suited to the event, it is Macron that is believed to have fared better in the scathing encounter, helping to protect his substantial lead in the process and ease concerns about a late surge by the National Front

Natalie Nougayrède

Imitating Trump’s tactics may have backfired for Le Pen, with polls showing Macron coming out on top – but rational debate took a hiding in the process. Marine Le Pen tried to imitate some of Donald Trump’s antics during Wednesday night’s TV debates. She managed to channel his aggressiveness, contempt for facts, provocations, rabid boastfulness and bouts of unleashed absurdity. But, unlike Trump, Le Pen won’t be elected president this

Emmanuel Macron

I've never had an account in any tax haven. Le Pen is behind this. She has an internet army

Jessica Reed

I’m voting for Emmanuel Macron to keep Marine Le Pen out of the Elysée Palace. My cousin, a socialist, is abstaining. Can she convince me she’s justified?• Lisez cet article en français

Philippe Peninque

Le Pen is a man of the 19th century. And Marine is a woman thoroughly of her time. She's got the French national heritage stapled to her being, but

Emmanuel Macron

I want to get down to hand to hand combat, to get to the bottom of issues to show that her ideas are false solutions. I will not go for insults or shortcuts…I listened to Ms Le Pen yesterday; that's all she

Jean-Yves Camus

What Menard does in Béziers–particularly on immigration, the French identity, and how he behaves with his opponents–shows what the obsessions of the National Front are. Béziers is like a testing ground for what the policies of the National Front would be if Marine Le Pen were

Emmanuel Macron

You know the friends and allies of Mrs. Le Pen. These are the regimes of Orban, Kaczynski and Putin. They are not open and free democracies. Every day, freedoms and rules are violated there along with our

Yanis Varoufakis

The National Front cannot be allowed to stumble into the Élysée due to our misguided tactical indifference. I refuse to be part of a generation of European progressives who could have stopped Marine Le Pen from winning France's presidency but didn't. It is nothing less than scandalous for any progressive to keep an equal distance from Le Pen and

Nicolas Bay

It shows that Marine Le Pen is not sectarian, and that when one of her opponents, in this case from the first round, speaks well about France, she can borrow his

Paul-Marie Coûteaux

It is good (and significant) that Marine Le Pen and François Fillon, expressing themselves on France's universal calling, do so with the same terms. These terms, of a Gaullist inspiration, are those of my work 'Europe's Road to

Jean-Claude Mailly - Force Ouvrière

I think that a clear instruction of who to vote for in the second round is necessary because we have to block Marine Le Pen, we all agree about that. We must also prevent a further increase in the vote going to Le Pen, that would prove costly in

Benjamin Stora

Marine Le Pen uses the vocabulary of the Republic, but in a colonial

Olivier Belem

Although we don't support the politics of Macron, we advise our followers to vote for him, because we don't want Le Pen. The fact that the other unions don't give voters clear advice will leave open the possibility of a blank vote and will help Le Pen in her chances of

Emmanuel Macron

But at the same time we have to face the situation, to listen to our people, and to listen to the fact that they are extremely angry today, impatient and the dysfunction of the EU is no more sustainable. So I do consider that my mandate, the day after, will be at the same time to reform in depth the European Union and our European project. And I don't want to do so, because the day after, we will have a Frexit or we will have (Ms Le Pen's) Front National(FN)

Cheker Messaoudi

The second round is a catastrophe. I think with Macron we are facing a war on the economy and with Le Pen we are facing a civil war, so it is bad both

Emmanuel Macron

We have a duty today to their memory. Does she want us to no longer commemorate? Madame Le Pen and her people can complain, but I will not back

Gérard Miller

That Macron is today a temporary, very temporary alas, rampart against the Front National, I can admit because I'm going to vote for the leader of En Marche!, but only if we're going to be lucid: in terms of fighting the far right, nothing, starting with his programme and his past, goes in favour of the former economy

Harry Bernas

Thanks to Jean-Luc Mélenchon people have begun thinking there's another way out of this crisis of poverty, unemployment, despair. The real question is how to vote to keep that going. In my mind it will be easier to continue the fight under Macron than Le Pen, who is more

Joseline Frommer

It's impossible for me to vote for Le Pen, but a vote for Macron? If I do and he has a huge majority, I think it will make me physically sick. But it's true, we cannot take the risk of Le Pen

Renato Fragoli

People are so disappointed that they will go vote for Marine Le Pen out of frustration. It's truly sad. But I can understand them. The jobs have

Agnès Poirier

Many French voters are abstaining, but everyone should do their civic duty on polling day and put an X in a box on 7 May. The 15 years between 2002 and 2017 feel like an eternity. In 2002, the shock of seeing Jean-Marie Le Pen, the leader of the French extreme right, scrape through to the second round of the presidential elections pushed millions of people on to the streets for two weeks, while every politician called for a vote for Jacques Chirac, with or without pegs on their

Gerard Courtois

Contrary to 2002, the presence of Marine Le Pen in the second round has elicited no shock comparable to 15 years ago when her father beat [Socialist Prime Minister] Lionel Jospin. It's a confirmation that the strategy of entrenchment and banalization of the party of the extreme right has borne

Edouard Lecerf

If, for some reason, some of (Macron's) potential voters (those coming from other first round candidates) prefer not to go and vote (they would not cast a vote for Le Pen)… and if on the contrary, Le Pen gets the largest proportion of those who did not turn out at the first round (22 percent of potential voters) but come to join the game for the second round, the game is changing….feedback

Richard Ferrand

Marine Le Pen has had herself replaced by someone who resembles her, who has sectarian ideas, divisive

Tom Roseen

While markets had deemed a Marine Le Pen-Emmanuel Macron run-off as the most likely outcome, there was an element of uncertainty. That uncertainty is gone and investors feel more comfortable increasing their exposure to international

Emmanuel Macron

Madame Le Pen is using the situation for political ends, stirring up crowds on a parking lot. If she's elected, this company will close. Madame Le Pen does not understand how this country

Emmanuel Macron

Mrs Le Pen is using this situation to her political advantage, because what she does is stir up political activists in a parking lot. I want everyone who lives and works in this region to know: if she's elected, this factory will shut down. And I can name dozens more in this case. That's what makes us different, in our method and in

Elwin de Groot - Rabobank

There is no denying that the French election result (with the tail risk of a 2nd round between Mélenchon and Le Pen now out of the window) has given renewed impetus to speculation that the ECB might dial back quantitative easing earlier than planned, or might hike rates sooner than markets had been pricing in. Having said that, I believe it is still early days. Even assuming Macron secures his victory in the second round, it is also important that he will garner sufficient support in

Édouard Philippe

Some of my friends in the party can admit they will vote for Macron, but they are strongly advocating a position of opposition, and they hope to win the legislative election. The risk of us getting Marine Le Pen elected this year is strong in my view, and I want to avoid that. And the risk of Marine Le Pen getting elected in five years from now, if Macron fails, is strong as

Emmanuel Macron

Some have woken up with a hangover because Le Pen is there. I haven't. Nothing is won ... I have never considered one minute that it was won. My battle is to defeat Marine Le Pen. When I hear Madame Le Pen's slogans, her tones and her gestures, I see a lot more brutality on her side than mine. The brutal project, the project of hate and rejection is not on my

Éric Coquerel

You've got to look at where the criticism is coming from. It's coming from those whose policies have favored the development of the National Front, from the Socialist Party. We don't want to help Marine Le Pen, but we don't want to endorse Mr. Macron. He's the candidate of free trade. He's going to assist in the Uberization of society. Everything we are going to fight against in the coming months. There's no possible

Wallerand de Saint Just

After Marine Le Pen is elected, it is possible that personalities from other parties will want to run under the National Front banner. We will change our list of candidates accordingly. If she is elected, this will be a major disruption in French political life, and in other parties as well. We will be the most important, if not the only force of opposition to Macron. We would seek to be a pivotal force in the

Jim Reid - Deutsche Bank

It would take a numerical shock perhaps 5-10 times larger than Brexit or Trump for Le Pen to win. The pre-first round polls have been relatively accurate, so Macron should rightly be red hot favourite

Edouard Lecerf

Macron's strength is that even if he isn't the first choice for the 50 per cent of the first-round voters whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round, he is still seen as acceptable by many of them, whereas Marine Le Pen isn't. That would left a reserve of voters whom she could mobilise for the second round but it didn't happen as the first-round turnout was high, at nearly 80 per cent. Only about one-third of those who voted for Fillon will be tempted to vote for Marine Le Pen in the second round. The rest will vote for Macron or

Olivier Peguy

Marine Le Pen has made it the starting point of her national conquest, a conquest that risks once again to clash against the wall created by the other candidates who're calling for an Emmanuel Macron

Thu Lan Nguyen - Commerzbank

This (the second round) is going to be a non-event for the market. Markets have pretty much priced out the risk of a Le Pen victory, and rightly so, because the first round of the elections has shown that the polls in France were correct...and this increases the confidence in the polls for the second round...It's highly likely that (Macron) is going to

Konstantin Kosachyov

First impressions from French election is that it resembles the fight between Clinton and Trump in the US, between the desire to stick to the old policies on one side and the hope for change on the other. As expected, the losing candidates are already supporting Macron. Le Pen can count only on herself. But hope dies

Sylvain Crepon

They're preparing for afterwards, for 2022. Macron is paradoxically the best opponent for Le Pen. Not in terms of second round score, because he was the one (out of the first round contenders) seen beating her most heavily, but because, since everybody is backing him in France and in Europe, she can bill him as the establishment, globalization candidate and present herself as the best

Emmanuel Macron

Nationalism is war. I know it. I come from a region that is full of graveyards. The trap you are falling into, Madame Le Pen, with your provocations, is to divide society. It's truly barbarous and it's part of a past that we need to confront by apologising to those against whom we committed these

Martin Michelon

He worked as an investment banker, which makes him hated, openly, by a part of the population who like nothing more than to criticize banks. But it is a funny argument, because people say, He is a banker, he has no political experience, he's never been elected.' But at same time, [they] criticize people like [Francois] Fillon or Marine Le Pen who have been elected or been in politics their whole

Michael Ingram - BGC Partners

I think the market had been increasingly concerned that this four horse race might have thrown up two potentially candidates in this context, that would have been Le Pen verses Melenchon. Of course in the event that didn't happen and that's one of the reasons why you are seeing a risk rally this

Antonio Barroso

A Le Pen victory would mean a considerable shift in France's attitudes towards Putin given the National Front's strong links with Russian political and economic

Bruno Breisacher

I will vote again for Marine Le Pen in the second round, all while hoping, despite everything, to salvage what we can, that Mr Emmanuel Macron wins in the second round. It's a protest vote, because we're fed up. There are no jobs, the children don't have a

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

Euro/dollar has gapped much higher because we do not have the worst case scenario for the market. We may knock the level of USD 1.10 or possibly even USD 1.11 but this trade may fade as Le Pen is still there. This is going to keep traders on the

Masahiro Ichikawa - Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management

The equity market is breathing a sigh of relief for the moment. The worst case scenario of Le Pen heading in to the final round of voting with (far-leftist Jean-Luc) Melenchon has been avoided. That said, other geopolitical concerns are likely to limit a further rise by equities, such as tensions over North Korea which marks the 85th anniversary of its army's foundation this

Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic - BVA Opinion

Emmanuel Macron attracted in his wake France that is doing well, an optimistic France, while Marine Le Pen has attracted the France that has been left behind by

Natalie Nougayrède

Leftwingers and ultra-conservatives could yet hand the French presidency to the Front National candidate – by refusing to back Emmanuel Macron on 7 May. Many will have felt a huge sense of relief at the outcome of yesterday’s vote in the French presidential race – I certainly did. But to say the battle has been won against extremism and demagoguery, in this key test for liberal democracy in Europe, would be a daring assumption. Two weeks remain before the 7 May run-off, and that can be a long time in

Moshe Kantor

We call on all democrats to rally together to prevent Madame Le Pen from winning in the second round, which would be a prize for extremism and intolerance and a dark day for

Pierre Moscovici - European Union

She will not be the next president of France, but I fear she might get 40%. It would be a second shock. We must remain vigilant to erect a barrier against the [Front National]. Le Pen qualified for the second round. She may have scored less in percentage terms than was expected, but it is frightening that she still got 7.6 million votes. It is too early yet to heave a sigh of relief. The election is not

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

I am staying home. The game is over, Macron is president already. I have no job. Macron, Le Pen, all the

Geert Wilders

I have just sent him my sincere congratulations. Now on the way to a vigorous second round, I am hoping for a President Le

Francois Miquet-Marty - Viavoice

It's more complicated than it looks – a new campaign is starting. Marine Le Pen is going to frame this as a face-off between Emmanuel Macron, the candidate of the globalized elite, and herself as the people's candidate. She has a line of attack that can hit the bull'

Richard McGuire - Rabobank

The assumption now is that centrist voters will rally around Macron, denying Le Pen the presidency and hence this will effectively be a pro-establishment, pro-European result which will be positive for risk appetite on Monday morning. We are likely to see a notable tightening of European sovereign spreads and this would also be positive for the euro and

Dean Turner - UBS

The relief may prove to be short-lived though as markets will still be alert to the possibility of a Le Pen victory in the second round. Although at this stage it seems unlikely, this campaign has thrown up many surprises already. The stakes for the economy and markets are markedly high. In an election dominated by surprises, Macron's commanding lead in the second round polls may do little to alleviate market anxiety in its

Paul Lambert

All the polling that we are seeing would suggest that in the second round it would be very difficult for Le Pen to make major further gains, while Macron should pick up significant further votes. I think people will be fairly confident that Macron will win in the second round and the market will be relieved by that. The euro will benefit from the perceived decline in the break-up risk in the euro

Pierre Gattaz

Mélenchon is the Venezuela scenario, Le Pen is the Argentine

Diego Iscaro

Markets will be reassured that the dreaded Le Pen versus Mélenchon run-off has been avoided. As a result, we expect some recovery in French bond prices, while the euro is also likely to benefit. However, a lot can happen in two weeks and French assets are likely under some pressure until the second round is out of the

Mikael Sala

France is on the point of disappearing; in two weeks we will be able to put this country in order. The mood is euphoric. France will have the taste of the happiness of having Marine Le Pen as the head of

Daphne Atlani

Being represented by Le Pen or Mélenchon, that's scary. I'm very frightened about the

Laurence Azzéna-Gougon

We were worrying about of course the Front National, but I'm pretty confident that if François Fillon wins the first round ... he will win the

Ben Nimmo

There is very, very strong support for the Kremlin among the far right in Europe. And Farage is squarely in that bloc with the likes of the Front National in France and Jobbik in Hungary. And it's not going to be his normal 'Mr Brexit' speech. He's going to be talking about the need for closer relations with

Thierry Vedel

Marine Le Pen has made an effort for years: It's a sociological vote; it's a crisis; it's people who feel shut out of the system. Mélenchon is more complicated. Mélenchon's campaign is trying. We can't rule out that in the campaign, social media has had an effect. Today, social media doesn't always reflect opinion; that's the

James Shields

The election of either Le Pen or Melenchon would put Paris on a fast-track collision course with (EU officials in) Brussels). The election of Marine Le Pen would make Brexit look trivial by

Boris Schlossberg

Any kind of serious contention that Le Pen wins or, the worst-case scenario, if we have Melenchon and Le Pen – the far right, far left – the only choice for France, could take the euro down to parity very quickly. The key question is can they really hold it together at this point. Can the union come together and create a more viable economic society for the rest of the European Union at this point. It's not so much even that [Le Pen] may win, it's a question of how big that whole populist vote is and how much discontent there is in the euro

Paul Christopher

If the ticket ends up being Le Pen, Melenchon, that would be a nightmare scenario. It's not really a Frexit scenario either. It's just the president cycle. I doubt you're going to get a National Assembly vote in June that would give a majority to either of them. My real concern is an extremist does two things. It shows populism hasn't faded in Europe and it means that reforms that were so painfully worked through in this last government could be rolled back. Those reforms really need to gain some further momentum so the economy can grow

Lukman Otunuga

Although Macron has been labelled as the favourite to become the next French President, an unexpected Marine Le Pen victory could deal a symbolic blow to the unity of the European Union and ultimately create a tidal wave of risk

Russ Koesterich

The tone of the market is indicating a little bit more risk aversion than is evident if you look at that headline number. On the one hand the S&P 500 is not that far from its all-time high. But if you look at market action over the last month, you've seen definitely a defensive bid: Rates are down, gold is up, more defensive parts of the market have been doing better, [and] value has been struggling a bit. If we were to see a Le Pen administration, that would raise the risk ... of a French discussion about the

Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

He crushes each of them, most notably Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in a head-to-head contest. These two outsiders therefore have a much higher mountain to climb in a much shorter period than Donald Trump had when challenging Hillary

Emmanuel Macron

What our attackers want is death, symbolism, to sow panic (and) to disturb a democratic process, which is the presidential election. I think we must one and all have a spirit of responsibility at this extreme time and not give in to panic and not allow it to be exploited, which some might try to do. I've heard Madame Le Pen saying again recently that with her in charge, certain attacks would have been avoided. There's no such thing as zero risk. Anyone who pretends (otherwise) is both irresponsible and

Bernard Cazeneuve

The Front National candidate, just like every attack seeks to divide and manipulate. She is shameless trying to exploit fear and emotion to exclusively political

Vincent Juvyns - J.P. Morgan Asset Management

The official investiture of the new president will take place on the Sunday 14 May at the latest. In the case of Francois Fillon or Emmanuel Macron, they should in theory be able to form a rather stable government as they have a wide - direct or indirect - support in both houses. For Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon, it could be more challenging given there is low support in the lower and upper house and also because the legislative elections in June could oblige them to work with other political parties in their governments which would be less likely for Fillon or

Jordan Rochester

If Marine Le Pen fails to gain as many votes as expected from the first round then the market will likely reduce the event risk for the second round considerably and EUR would rally. On the flipside, if she gains more votes than expected (29 percent or so to be meaningfully different from the polls) or if even more surprisingly if Mr Macron fails to make it into the second round then we think the market will seriously reassess the

Wolfgang Schäuble

It is no secret that we will not be cheering madly should Sunday's result produce a second round between Le Pen and Melenchon. Political movements also belong to geo-political risks. I have big confidence in the republican rationality of the

Harold Blanot

This is forgotten France. The real misery is in the countryside. In Nièvre and Morvan a few decades ago, there was small industry – manufacturing, charcuterie, textiles. It has slowly shut … The Socialists have been here since after the war, but it has led to disaster... People want to turn the page and the solutions the Front National are proposing are having an

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

I think the consensus is that France in the end will choose some one other than Le Pen, somebody more moderate. But you can't say that for sure, after what happened last

Masafumi Yamamoto - Mizuho Securities

But if Le Pen were to get past the first round with a wide lead, the (market) impact could be

Diego Iscaro

If we have Melenchon and Le Pen advancing, we could see the spread widen significantly, maybe around 150 to 200 basis

Damon Embling

People are not just betting a few euros on the French election. One person, for instance, has got 35,000 euros on Marine Le Pen to take the presidency. But the far-right leader is not the bookies' favourite here in the

Beata Caranci - TD Bank Group

A win by the populist Marine Le Pen in the second round could result in a prolonged period of uncertainty as she attempts to negotiate better terms for France remaining in the EU. This outcome would undoubtedly increase volatility in global financial markets, particularly in European equities, bonds, and

Florian Hense - Berenberg

Melenchon's 'plan B' would be getting out of the EU and maybe out of the euro zone. That's more or less 'plan A' for Le Pen. Le Pen would still be the more nuclear

Lena Komileva

The politics of separation is the greatest risk for the euro. That it is no longer just a Le Pen risk is a grave

Jim Cramer

If the hard leftist wins, you probably don't want to invest in French businesses because of tax considerations or French bonds, because hardcore socialists tend not to care at all about the bond market. On the other hand, if Marine Le Pen, the hard-right candidate, makes it to the second round and then wins the election, she said she'll take France off the euro, which would mean the end of the EU as we know it. Selling because of European politics has been a mistake

Mark Grant - Hilltop

I want nothing to do with investing there at present. You have a nightmare scenario occurring in France. Melenchon wants to be able to borrow all the money he wants. ... Le Pen wants to leave the European Union altogether. Either of those two as the president of France would be a disaster for the European

Gilles Ivaldi

When people think of the Front National, it's really about the policies and extremist background. The candidate doesn't really

Vasileios Gkionakis - UniCredit Group

Once the French elections have concluded – and assuming that Ms. Le Pen does not make it to Elysee – the political risk premium currently embedded in the euro should be priced out. Based on real rate differentials, EUR-GBP is now trading around 6% lower than it should, most likely due to the election uncertainty in France. So, when the latter is priced-out we would expect a swift reversal towards the 0.88-0.90

Benjamin Haddad

A Melenchon or a Le Pen victory would clearly mean the end of the EU. The French President has much more power than the American president… there's far fewer checks and balances. So the impact on the way society is organized and how institutions function, as well on fiscal policy, immigration, the EU and foreign policy would be

Adrien Vergnaud

My grandparents are afraid of Le Pen. They say she's extreme, and that if she's elected, we might have a war. I say maybe that's a good

Olivier Tonneau

The leftwing politician is not out to destroy Europe: he is out to save it. La France Insoumise proposes a peaceful revolution towards a fair democratic society. Four days before the first round of the French presidential election, Europe is terrified by the prospect of a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Whoever wins, we are told, the wheat will grow thin, nuclear winter will fall over the continent, and frogs will rain down from the sky. Whatever differences there may be between the radical left and the far-right candidates, they mean nothing compared with their similarities: they are both Eurosceptic demagogues tapping into the base instincts of their

Richard Benson

There were probably some nerves around the prospect of Melenchon making it into the final round, potentially even along with Le Pen, but that does seem to have

Marc Chandler - Brown Brothers Harriman

I still expect Macron and Le Pen to be in the runoffs. A lot of people think the French election is about the presidential election. It's also about the parliamentary election in June. The president is a figurehead. The problem is none of the candidates have a strong parliamentary presence. The key to the outcome is going to be the parliamentary elections. Political risk is going to subside, but it can't go

Charles Lichfield

It is true that four candidates are coming all within a margin of error. It is impossible to know for sure whether the French electorate will look at these polls and decide to vote with their hearts or get excited by the underdogs. It will be negative because there's this now complacent view that Brexit wasn't so bad. Trump hasn't been so bad, so why are we worried about Le Pen? But if you look at what she wants to do, if suddenly the market slowing into what her actual policies are and realize she's right at the center of a vulnerable monetary union, then it becomes much more

Robert Sinche - Amherst

You hear people saying if Le Pen gets elected, France pulls out of the euro and the EU collapses. That's utter nonsense. For France to pull out, there has to be a vote of Parliament and they're overwhelmingly against leaving the

Charles Lichfield

Depending on how high [Le Pen] is, the market could react quite violently. If her runner-up is 6, 7 points behind her, many people would see that it's possible she

Farid Aït-Ouarab

When Marine Le Pen says that imams should be preaching in French, she's right – that's normal. This is France. Islam is about doing things together – in a circle, by consensus. We see exactly that in the National Assembly, in the Senate, where deputies gather to decide our laws in tandem, together. For a real Muslim, there is no difference between 'French' and '

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

Marine Le Pen is certainly the real problem because she believes in fundamentally altering the state of the euro. Jean-Luc Melenchon would be a socialist/communist disaster for the French economy but what else is new? He is just a bit more economically extreme than

Pascal Grimmer

Politicians are forcing me to vote Le Pen. That's why I'm doing this. Not with a happy heart but because I'm forced to. And increasing numbers of French people are starting to think this

Herve Hoff

We'll have the same phenomenon. Deepest France, rural France, will lift up Marine Le Pen and you'll see villages where she'll get crazy

Veronique Fornilli

Macron is a pure marketing product. Only Le Pen can put France back in

Thierry de Montbrial

We have seen that Trump's latest positions are so contrary to what Marine Le Pen had

Alexi Descamps

I don't like the comparison. [Le Pen] has a very aggressive politics on immigration, and he doesn't. He's extreme left, and that's what we need – he's the only one who proposes a departure from

Giles Merritt - Friends of Europe

Without the European Parliament, you wouldn't have a UKIP or a Front National as powerful and cohesive as they are now. But the fact they were able to get substantial numbers of people in parliament, and through that, funding, that has been significant in the whole populist

Jean-Robert Havet - Renault

I believe Marine Le Pen will easily score 60 to 65 percent

Fatima Amara

If Marine Le Pen won, I wonder if I should leave France for good despite the fact I grew up here and I'm French. I won't be arrested for what I'm telling you, will I?feedback

Natalie Nougayrède

Vladimir Putin has applauded far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and officials are on alert for campaign meddling. The golden domes of one of Vladimir Putin’s foreign projects, the recently built Russian Holy Trinity cathedral in the heart of Paris, rise up not far from the Elysée palace, the seat of the French

Nobuhiko Kuramochi - Mizuho Securities

The market is not too worried that more action on Syria by the U.S. is imminent and investors are not expecting Le Pen to win the French election, but the market is already tense. Investors are preparing for any possibility

Naomi Totten - Betfair

If Melenchon continues to gain ground and Macron continues losing it with Le Pen holding hers, this presidential race could potentially become a far-right versus far-left battle in the second

Jordan Rochester

If Jean-Luc Melenchon were to face Marine Le Pen, we would enter an outright short OAT (French government bond position). In contrast, if Le Pen does not make it to the second round, we think demand for OATs will pick up again as the market fades a 'euro break-up story' and re-focuses on ECB (European Central Bank)

Mark Burgess

After Britain's Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidential election surprised markets in 2016, could this event do the same? As a Le Pen presidency is perceived to increase the likelihood of France's withdrawal from the EU, the uncertainty is likely to continue about what this could mean for the euro, along with a potential wider hit to global

Carl J. Forcheski - Société Générale

While Le Pen is polling well for now, we are not anticipating her winning the second stage. Longer term, toward the second half of 2017, our econ research staff sees a good chance the euro firms, due to its massive undervaluation, structural surpluses and a market yet to price in an ECB

Christian Lenk - DZ Bank

The market is focusing a bit too much on the extreme possibilities, but I guess with the elections coming up so soon some nerves are inevitable. But at the end of the day I think (the second round) will be Macron versus Le

Emmanuel Macron

Some had forgotten that Marine Le Pen is the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen. We must not be complacent or minimise what the National Front is

Paul Joseph Watson

It's been fun lads, but the fun is over. I'll be focusing my efforts on Le Pen, who tried to warn Trump against this disaster. Guys, I can't vehemently oppose destabilizing the Syrian government for 6 years and then support it just because Trump did it.

Natalie Nougayrède

The presidential favourite has chosen a difficult time to recast France as a diverse, inclusive nation. At age 39, Emmanuel Macron is a breath of fresh air in French politics. But can he convince enough voters that he can take France into a 21st century of openness and confident, diverse modernity? With the spectre of Marine Le Pen looming, a lot seems to rest on one young face, just two weeks ahead of a presidential election set to define not just the fate of France’s democracy but also the future of much of

Valérie Igounet

Today in France, there is one out of two voters that are not ready to vote for her (FN leader Marine Le Pen) to be president of the Republic … It is still a party that scares

Daniel Vaissier

When he (Briois) arrived in 2014, it was the Socialist Party at the helm, and Hénin-Beaumont had a lot of difficulties, now Mr. Briois put things right … I say that the Front National is today able to do the same thing on a national

Philippe Poutou

And then we've got Le Pen, next to me, Le Pen, dipping into the public purse. It's not here, it's Europe, and now for somebody who is anti-European, the worst is that the National Front, which calls itself anti-system, it doesn't give a damn. It protects itself thanks to the laws of the system, thanks to parliamentary immunity, and so refuses to answer a police

Vincent Marcel

But I won't vote Le Pen. I am the grandchild of Italian immigrants - many came over here to work in the

Alexandre Wierth

People talk about how deplorable (the election of Donald Trump) was in America, but in France I don't think we'll do any better. Mélenchon is interesting on ecology but Europe won't let him do what he wants. Maybe we need the ideas of Marine Le Pen - a Frexit to get us out of there and to take back

François Fillon

As everyone knows that the vast majority of French don't want to leave the single currency (72 per cent according to the latest poll), that means in reality that Madame Le Pen will have no economic policy, as it will collapse the minute the French vote against leaving the single

Emmanuel Macron

Nationalism is war. I know it. I come from a region that is full of graveyards. Sorry to tell you this, Madame Le Pen, but you are saying the same lies that we've heard from your father for 40

Emmanuel Macron

Europe, it allows to protect. What you are proposing is the decline of the French's purchasing power. What you are proposing is an economic war. Nationalism is war. I know it. I come from a region that is full of graveyards. Sorry to tell you this, Madame Le Pen, but you are saying the same lies that we've heard from your father for forty

Emmanuel Macron

Madame Le Pen, sorry to tell you, but you are using lies we hear for 40 years and we were hearing in your father's

François Heisbourg - The International Institute for Strategic Studies

In France, even if you are of the extreme right, as Marine Le Pen is, you do not have credibility if you do not know how to align a subject, a verb and a complement. Trump truly wouldn't last 20 minutes in the French political system – not because of his ideas, but because of the way he expresses

Dominique Moisi

It's difficult for Le Pen to use Trump, when she knows that so many French disapprove of

Dorit Geva

There's the issue of terrorism but there is also the issue of the extremely violent acts that have occurred within France against police within the last few months, including the firebombing of a police car, which a lot of French citizens found extremely disturbing. It's true the acts of terrorism are extremely important but there are also internal events that are not as well known to an international audience but are still just as important, if not more so. If there was an act of terrorism between now and the election that could be enough of a tipping point to get Le Pen into the

Simon Usherwood

Le Pen still looks constrained in her ability to turn an almost-certain entry to the second round of voting into an overall victory. The surge by Macron would seem to suggest that he would mop up a lot of votes in any case, even without those voting against Marine Le Pen. If, however, Fillon limps into the second round, then bets are off, as he's very compromised and many might feel they should give Le Pen a chance to effect the change she's talked so much

Jerôme Fourquet

It's a divide between the winners and losers of globalization ... In the outskirts, the depressed former industrial bastions, rural enclaves, people feel left on the side of the road, isolated. Marine Le Pen has understood this very

Vivien Schmidt

It's the same discourse of globalization gone too far, of outrage over high unemployment – and especially youth unemployment. But it's also sociocultural. People really feel a loss of control, political and otherwise. Le Pen gives people a nostalgia for a vanished past, a past most people don't even

Stefano Stefanini

It would be an accomplishment of what the Germans tried with two wars, unsuccessfully, without any unit of blame to the Germans. Should Le Pen win against all predictions, it would be game over for the European

Christophe Guilluy

It would be chemically pure if it came down to a runoff between Macron and Le Pen. It would be perfect! It would be a battle between 'la France en-haut and la France en-bas' [high France and low France]; between the prosperous in the cities and the provincials who know that this economic model doesn't need them and feel the pain of

Marie-Solange Werner

Marion is so right to put France first, and patriotism first. I have limitless admiration for Jean-Marie Le Pen [the founder of the FN]. But the women of the family can appeal to a broader audience in this

Maria Katasonova

Putin, Trump and Le Pen all stand up for their countries' interests but they understand very well that cooperation and dialogue with each other's countries can correct the mistakes that the Obama-Merkel-Hollande axis made–really serious mistakes like allowing for terrorism, an economic crisis, and a refugee crisis. They can fix all

Ludovic de Danne

He wished her good luck for the presidential election. We felt they understood each other, they were on the same wave length. Macron-Merkel it's the declining establishment, Le Pen and Putin represent the freedom of the people, cooperation in a multi-polar

Nicolas Bay

With Donald Trump to the West, and Vladimir Putin to the East, Marine Le Pen clearly appears to be the least isolated of the presidential

Hubert Védrine

If we do not manage to correct the system, the European project will end. There are a lot of people who disagree with what Europe has become, and they are not for Marine Le Pen and the National

Omer Esiner - Commonwealth Foreign Exchange

Any news between now and the French election next month that suggests fading risk of a Le Pen victory would probably be supportive of the

Emmanuel Macron

No, no, please, play nice Mrs Le Pen, I'm not putting words into your mouth and I don't need a ventriloquist. I can assure you everything's fine and clear for me and when I have something to say, I'll say it clearly, as I always

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

I have to admire your brass neck when you say the campaign has been polluted by the corruption scandals some of us are implicated in. Well, I'm sorry, but not me, and I think I should remind the audience this concerns just two of us up here , Mr Fillon and Madame Le Pen, and the three others have nothing to do with

François Fillon

The real serial killer, is Marine Le Pen with her plan to leave the euro, rampant inflation….feedback

Michael Roth

We're interested to see that our closest partner in the EU returns to political, cultural, social and economic stability. This path of renewal and change has to be accelerated dramatically. We should keep the political costs in mind. If, in the end, a European policy that we are also responsible for propels Marine Le Pen into office as president, I do not think we should support

Emmanuel Macron

The trap you are falling into, Mrs Le Pen, through your provocations, is dividing society. It is making enemies of the Republic out of the more than four million French men and women whose religion is Islam, the vast majority of whom are absolutely not leading ethnically separate lives but instead living in our Republic. Well I won't do that!feedback

Emmanuel Macron

I'm not putting words in your mouth. I don't need a ventriloquist. The trap you are falling into, Madame Le Pen, with your provocations, is to divide

Jean-Marie Le Pen

After all, they can say, Le Pen was right,' . Public opinion – the voters, the citizens – has realized that the ideas we defend are not 'extremist,' as our adversaries say, but that they conform to the truth. If I were Marine Le Pen, I would run exactly the same campaign as Trump, showing the rejection of the establishment, which I believe is majoritarian in France. When someone criticizes, I say, how would you say it otherwise? What can we say? Is there a truth?feedback

Jean-Marie Le Pen

After all, they can say, 'Le Pen was right,' . Public opinion - the voters, the citizens - has realized that the ideas we defend are not 'extremist,' as our adversaries say, but that they conform to the truth. If I were Marine Le Pen," "I would run exactly the same campaign as Trump, showing the rejection of the establishment, which I believe is majoritarian in France. I regret the persecution of which I was the object, unjustly. When someone criticizes, I say, how would you say it otherwise? What can we say? Is there a truth?feedback

David Lammy

This week Nigel Farage met Marie Le Pen and we are sending a message that we don't want that kind of fascism and xenophobia across our planet and in our country. My parents arrived in this county in the 1950s to signs that said 'no blacks, no Irish, no dogs' and we thought because of so much strife that by the time we got to the 21st century we had turned our backs on racism. And then, we get June the 21st. We get a rise in hate crime across the country almost by

Thomas Guénolé

The meetings do not show that the FN's ideas have more credibility . . . but that everyone is scared of Ms Le Pen

Michael Sapin

Voters from the left, right and center will know to react with one concern – put Mrs. Le Pen on the side, reassure what France is, its principles but also reassure from an economic, financial, budgetary, European point of view. Reassure on the future of the euro, reassure on all these points and we will have the opportunity to do so. We need to show to the rest of the world that the extreme right, extreme right-wing nationalism, extremism, including xenophobic extremism is not France and we should all unite to put them

Michael Sapin

I don't know who will be the president of the Republic in France – this is maybe the first time I don't know, but I know this won't be Mrs. (Marine) Le Pen and I know this will be someone European and favorable to European construction. I think that anyone can measure that in our deeply democratic countries, even if they are hurt when they see a very high number of voters turning to extreme right-wing movements, they know how to react. France will know how to

Ken Orchard - T. Rowe Price Associates

From a fixed income perspective, the focus is now on France. While the probability of a Le Pen victory remains slim, it is a major risk that the markets are wary of and would deal a serious blow to the future of the euro

Anna Stupnytska - Fidelity Solutions

Markets will of course now turn their attention to France, where the candidacy of the far-right Marine Le Pen arguably poses greater risks. To whatever extent this vote is a signal on France, the high turnout and rally around towards the mainstream center look bad for her. The structure of the French presidential election also create additional obstacles to any far-right victory in France. As such, the Dutch result may be remembered as the turning point in the popularity of populism for

Arne Petimezas

Some of that fear around Brexit, Trump, and then Wilders and (France's) Le Pen, may now be seeping out of the markets - you see some of that fear

Michael Birnbaum

Geert Wilders, a fiery fixture of the Dutch far-right who wants to ban the Koran and shutter mosques, topped polls for months, unnerving mainstream leaders in France and Germany who face elections later this year. His support has waned in recent weeks, but he has already forced many Dutch parties to sharpen their rhetoric toward immigrants. … A Wilders defeat would likely slow the momentum of French anti-immigrant leader Marine Le Pen, who if she captured her nation's presidency in May would try to lead France out of the European Union, shattering the bloc in the

Masafumi Yamamoto - Mizuho Securities

The euro's rise was an initial reaction to the Dutch exit polls and the currency could rise further when the European 'mother market' comes into session later in the day. How much further support the euro can garner would depend on how the Dutch vote could now impact the French presidential elections, for example by eroding support for (Marine) Le Pen. We could see the euro gain further if spreads between French and German government bonds tighten

Hajo Funke

The bloc for Le Pen is very consistent, which is different than the other

Carsten Brzeski - ING-DiBa

From an economic point of view, obviously France with a president Le Pen would face the biggest

Raphaël Glucksmann

They've reached this point ... hooked nose, the alliance of capitalism and Bolsheviks (the red sickle and the cigar) ... Even the [far-right Front National] wouldn't

Kathryn Rooney Vera - Bulltick Capital Markets

Le Pen could feasibly win. Populism could sweep her into office. It's not being priced in, but she's going to win in the first round. She could then pull out a surprise in the second round. If she were to, then we would see the euro fall and we would see dollar

James Franey - Euronews

And in the second round, who will you vote for between Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron?feedback

David Rachline

The reality right now is that Marine (Le Pen) is in front in almost all

Larry McDonald -

Even if [Le Pen] wins, if the government there is going more conservative, it's a better risk-reward in French equities, and they're very, very cheap to U.S.

Ely Mbareck

For me it's not an excuse, but we should ask questions. Often it's due to a lack of jobs, a social misery that put them totally on their knees, and the only outcome they see is criminality, unfortunately. Here in Les Mureaux, there is a big population coming from migration. They are as patriotic as the others. Now, Marine Le Pen? She is stigmatizing us every day, so I don't see me voting for Marine Le

Natalie Nougayrède

France is a country beset by scandals and security fears – and with the mainstream parties crumbling, anything is possible. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National party has never been closer to power. That is not to say she will be elected president in May. When in 1962 Charles de Gaulle introduced direct universal suffrage for the presidential election, he cushioned it with a two-round voting system in which a 50% majority is required in the runoff. Le Pen seems set to pass the first hurdle, but not the second. In that case, the biggest danger lies not so much in her entering the Elysée Palace, but in her party becoming the largest opposition force in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections in June. But don’t be mistaken, a worst-case scenario is

Gerard Larcher

I cannot resign myself to the idea of a second round where it's Le Pen versus

Maria Demertzis - Bruegel

The ECB has several lines of defense if there is a surprise result in the elections this year but if Le Pen is to announce, as she promised, she is going to hold a referendum to quit the EU then I don't see the ECB granting any lines of defense to try and

Christian Lenk - DZ Bank

We saw a peak of panic in February when the focus was on Le Pen. It's always been clear that the odds of Le Pen becoming the next president were quite low and now we see confirmation of that in the

Thomas Guénolé

Basically the ideology of Mr Macron is opportunism. He waited as long as possible before telling us what his platform is. I don't think Marine Le Pen will benefit from this because in fact those who are right-wing voters and think Marine Le Pen is better already want to vote for Marine Le Pen. So I don't think she's going to win extra voters, but Emmanuel Macron can be an alternative for those who are right-wing voters and do not want to become far-right

Jan Randolph - IHS

It's all closely linked to the probability of a Marine Le Pen victory in the final two candidate Presidential round. That would be the horror scenario for the markets and the EU given her radical euro-exit

Norbert Wuthe - BayernLB

The slight deterioration in exit polls for Marine Le Pen in the run-off ballot helps stabilizing market

Roger Hallam - JPMorgan Asset Management

This (Le Pen winning) is still not a central scenario. (But) relative to the Greek experience it is much clearer for my money that if France was to leave it would be a much more negative event for the euro than if Greece was to leave. If that probability continues to rise we would anticipate that would continue to weigh increasingly heavily on the

Marcel Ceccaldi

The searches on Monday took place while Marine Le Pen was in Lebanon, a fact of which the authorities were well aware. It was an attempt to get around her parliamentary immunity and, is in fact, an attack on her right to the free exercise of power as head of a political

Maurice Levy

No-one in business really believes, at least in France, that Marine Le Pen will make it. Clearly she is leading in the first round but if you look at history and what has been the case (for) many years there is no chance that she is getting

Marco Stringa - Deutsche Bank

Italy represents, in our view, the main risk to euro-area stability. We think that the probability of a negative development in Italy in the short- or medium-term is greater than a victory of the leader of the National Front, Le Pen, in the forthcoming French presidential

Peter Chatwell

It looks superficially that Hamon and Melenchon were not looking to tie up and that reduces market pricing of a Le Pen victory. But there's still a decent probability the two candidates are forced

Diego Iscaro

Most polls suggest the Front National will lose the election. That said, polls have been wrong recently, so we have to take it with a pinch of

Diego Iscaro

Again, it's not impossible, but it's also not a done deal that if the Front National win, that France will

Josh O'Byrne - Citi

It seems like a broader, but fairly small, risk-off move. We saw the odds for a Le Pen victory move a bit higher this morning. That seemed to drive a bit of weakness in (bond prices in the euro zone) periphery as

Maris Ogg

If he doesn't straighten it out in the next, I would say, 30 days, people will just stop listening to him. When you look at the underlying fundamentals, they're quite good. The big question on the horizon is Marine Le Pen. If she wins, we're going to have a

Teresa Villaverde

With unemployment and everything like that, people get lost and then comes someone like Donald Trump or, in Europe, ... these new right-wing people like Marine Le Pen. There are many countries that have had a long democratic tradition and to our surprise we see the return of right-wing parties across Europe - we thought we'd never see this

Cas Mudde

Based on all the polls, as well as the polarization in France, she has virtually no chance. People argue she can win because they doubt the polls after Brexit and Trump. However, in both cases the margins were much smaller than between Le Pen and Macron or

Simon Baptist

Le Pen has taken care to present herself as a candidate with reasonable views, which has helped her to push the National Front from the fringes to the mainstream. Recent events, such as the refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, and the rise of populist leaders elsewhere, have also played into her

Tony Nash

The day before the U.S. election, pollsters gave Trump a 1.6 percent chance of victory, so while I wouldn't consider a Le Pen victory a baseline scenario, I wouldn't count her

Callum Henderson - Eurasia Group

I think the market is telling us a clear message that investors are finally waking up to the risk of a Le Pen win. It is highly questionable whether she would be able to (initiate a French exit from the EU or the euro) if she did win because parliament would not likely pass much ideas, but the initial market reaction would be very volatile and very

Valentin Marinov - Crédit Agricole

The risks for euro/dollar are firmly on the downside from here. We are short euro at the moment against the dollar, and we believe that short euro/yen is another interesting hedge going into the election. I describe it as a hedge because our central case is still that Le Pen won't win. Euro/yen is attractive especially, given that in the options space the markets are very short yen, which makes long positions in the currency space very

Axel A. Weber - UBS

In Britain we've seen that over the last summer. I'm pretty sure Marine Le Pen will be one of these candidates (in the final round) but I don't think she will be the winner of the

Jörg Krämer - Commerzbank

At that time the then-British (Prime Minister David) Cameron wanted to negotiate with the other EU members to obtain more leeway for the U.K., and put the result to a referendum. However, Marine Le Pen is likely to achieve even less than Cameron in this respect, and France leaving the EU would have far greater repercussions than

Joerg Kraemer - Commerzbank

Risk premia on French government bonds are back up to the levels seen during the 2012 crisis. But even if Marine Le Pen (the leader of the far right) does not win the French presidential election, the real problem of monetary union would remain: Different approaches to economic and monetary policy. Radical euroskeptics are no longer in the mood for compromise, and are pushing to restore full national control over economic and monetary policy. More tumult lies ahead for the euro zone, with no end in sight for the ECB's loose monetary

Ronan Carr - Bank of America

That's clearly the downside risk. I think if Marine Le Pen was elected … it would call into question the integrity of the euro zone. I think it's quite conceivable we're sitting here in May and the markets find the outcome quite bullish. Between now and then the markets could be choppy, kind of like we saw with some of the political events we saw last year. Ultimately, I think once we work through the uncertainty the backdrop is very

Beat Wittmann

A Le Pen win in France with a clear program to put the EU, the euro, NATO, etc up for referendum of course is going to drive these spread yields as we get closer to the

Daniel Lenz - DZ Bank

The move (in bond yields) is very much triggered by political uncertainty, especially in France. The market is pricing in the tail risk of Le Pen winning the presidential

Philippe Gudin - Barclays

Such a withdrawal would leave (Fillon's) party, Les Républicains, in disarray only two months before the first round of the elections on April 23, and there is no obvious substitute. Last week's surveys pointed to a second round between Le Pen and Macron, with Macron winning by a wide margin, 65/35. However, the opinion remains very volatile and uncertainty remains

Valerie Pecresse

Well, you know … I didn't believe in Brexit and I didn't believe in (President Donald) Trump's election so nobody can tell for sure but we are going to work a lot against it. All of us, all of the Republican party (and) the Republican voters so I think, well, (a Le Pen victory) shouldn't

Christian Lenk - DZ Bank

The likelihood of Le Pen winning is unlikely, but the situation in France is certainly raising fears among investors. French bonds will continue to underperform even though a lot is priced into the

Graham Sharpe - William Hill

We've picked up a lot of interest from (French) expats who can have a bet here but can't have a bet in Paris. We took the biggest single bet we've ever taken for a foreign election, other than the British or American ones. Ten thousand pounds for Marine Le Pen to win, from someone who walked into one of our south London betting

Michael Hewson - CMC Markets

European markets have really struggled to make any headway today with investors once again reluctant to try their luck against a backdrop of rising political risk. Narrowing opinion polls in Germany eroding Angela Merkel's lead, along with Marine Le Pen launching her bid for French president at the weekend, has seen European stocks roll over, and that's after the geopolitics surrounding US President Donald

Walter Fraudin

He does what he says. If you're on a battlefield you'll follow him. ... Marine Le Pen, I would follow

Roberto Magnatantini - SYZ Asset Management

The likely withdrawal of Mr Fillon from the presidential race not only eliminates a pragmatic pro-business candidate but also puts the whole traditional right in disarray and thus in a dismal position to face the election. The most obvious beneficiaries are the candidates and parties that vocally contest the status quo, led by Marine Le Pen. Their economic agendas are worrying enough to probably explain an increase in France's risk

Martin van Vliet - ING Group

The France spread to Belgium is the gauge we use for political risk, and that has widened further after an adviser to Le Pen fleshed out their Frexit plans. And with Fillon under the microscope as well, France is definitely

Jan Randolph - IHS

The more recent widening of this spread is clearly linked to anxieties over the French Presidential elections in April and the appointment of radical-left winger Benoit Hamon two days ago, together with the possible emerging scandal associated with Francis Fillon's wife as paid-secretary, that together makes the establishment parties chances weaker and the presidential race much more open and uncertain that before. A win for far right Marine le Pen, though still less likely but closer than any time before, certainly would (provoke any new action from the European Central Bank).feedback

Mariano Rajoy

I don't even want to think about it that would be a disaster, it would simply mean the destruction of Europe. Mrs Le Pen has announced plans for a referendum. She wants [France] to leave Europe, as if Europe were the source of all misfortunes. I would like it if she visited the rest of the world. This is not going to happen. I am convinced that things will turn out alright in Germany and I am absolutely convinced there won't be a problem in France. It is essential for the future of Europe that the elections in Germany and France go

Richard Benson

A Le Pen victory would probably be an exogenous shock for the world, so if we were heading into a period where you were expecting the U.S. to raise interest rates at the mid-year point, you would wipe out those moves and perhaps the euro would just go up,

Jonathan Fenby

You've got Marine Le Pen steady on 28 percent for the first round but not really increasing that, and then you've got Macron coming up, you've got (Jean-Luc) Melenchon ? who is kind of hard left ? and if the socialists get a candidate they don't like, a lot of them may vote for Melenchon, so you really have an enormous mix

Hélène Rey

If we look at the recent polls it is true that Marine Le Pen has been polling first for the first round, but I will remind you that one of the very important characteristics of the French electoral system is that we have two rounds for the presidential

Florian Philippot

For Marine Le Pen to make herself better known, as a woman, as a candidate, is certainly a key, because a presidential election is not only about a project but also about a

Sebastien Chenu

I'm just out of a meeting where we talked about our online viral campaigns and all the trips the candidate (Le Pen) will undertake, with one key theme per trip. We had one campaign ready for (Fillon's losing opponent Alain) Juppe and one for Fillon, so we could push it out

Stephen Gallo - BMO Capital Markets

Maybe people have reduced their expectations of downside. It is difficult to get a clear reading (from options pricing) but the consensus is that it is going to be very hard for Le Pen to get