Last quote about Front National
All quotes about Front National
Some of that fear around Brexit, Trump, and then Wilders and Le Pen, may now be seeping out of the markets - you see some of that fear dissipating.
Some of that fear around Brexit, Trump, and then Wilders and (France's) Le Pen, may now be seeping out of the markets - you see some of that fear dissipating.
The decent predictive performance of opinion polls in the Dutch vote is likely to restore confidence in French surveys, which have consistently ascribed a low probability to Marine Le Pen winning. It's probably a little too soon to sound the all-clear, however.
From a fixed income perspective, the focus is now on France. While the probability of a Le Pen victory remains slim, it is a major risk that the markets are wary of and would deal a serious blow to the future of the euro zone.
Geert Wilders, a fiery fixture of the Dutch far-right who wants to ban the Koran and shutter mosques, topped polls for months, unnerving mainstream leaders in France and Germany who face elections later this year. His support has waned in recent weeks, but he has already forced many Dutch parties to sharpen their rhetoric toward immigrants. … A Wilders defeat would likely slow the momentum of French anti-immigrant leader Marine Le Pen, who if she captured her nation's presidency in May would try to lead France out of the European Union, shattering the bloc in the process.
The euro's rise was an initial reaction to the Dutch exit polls and the currency could rise further when the European 'mother market' comes into session later in the day. How much further support the euro can garner would depend on how the Dutch vote could now impact the French presidential elections, for example by eroding support for (Marine) Le Pen. We could see the euro gain further if spreads between French and German government bonds tighten today.
They've reached this point ... hooked nose, the alliance of capitalism and Bolsheviks (the red sickle and the cigar) ... Even the [far-right Front National] wouldn't dare.
Le Pen could feasibly win. Populism could sweep her into office. It's not being priced in, but she's going to win in the first round. She could then pull out a surprise in the second round. If she were to, then we would see the euro fall and we would see dollar strengthen.
And in the second round, who will you vote for between Marine Le Pen or Emmanuel Macron?
For me it's not an excuse, but we should ask questions. Often it's due to a lack of jobs, a social misery that put them totally on their knees, and the only outcome they see is criminality, unfortunately. Here in Les Mureaux, there is a big population coming from migration. They are as patriotic as the others. Now, Marine Le Pen? She is stigmatizing us every day, so I don't see me voting for Marine Le Pen.
France is a country beset by scandals and security fears – and with the mainstream parties crumbling, anything is possible. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Front National party has never been closer to power. That is not to say she will be elected president in May. When in 1962 Charles de Gaulle introduced direct universal suffrage for the presidential election, he cushioned it with a two-round voting system in which a 50% majority is required in the runoff. Le Pen seems set to pass the first hurdle, but not the second. In that case, the biggest danger lies not so much in her entering the Elysée Palace, but in her party becoming the largest opposition force in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections in June. But don’t be mistaken, a worst-case scenario is possible.
The ECB has several lines of defense if there is a surprise result in the elections this year but if Le Pen is to announce, as she promised, she is going to hold a referendum to quit the EU then I don't see the ECB granting any lines of defense to try and help.
We saw a peak of panic in February when the focus was on Le Pen. It's always been clear that the odds of Le Pen becoming the next president were quite low and now we see confirmation of that in the polls.
Basically the ideology of Mr Macron is opportunism. He waited as long as possible before telling us what his platform is. I don't think Marine Le Pen will benefit from this because in fact those who are right-wing voters and think Marine Le Pen is better already want to vote for Marine Le Pen. So I don't think she's going to win extra voters, but Emmanuel Macron can be an alternative for those who are right-wing voters and do not want to become far-right voters.
It's all closely linked to the probability of a Marine Le Pen victory in the final two candidate Presidential round. That would be the horror scenario for the markets and the EU given her radical euro-exit policies.
The slight deterioration in exit polls for Marine Le Pen in the run-off ballot helps stabilizing market sentiment.
The searches on Monday took place while Marine Le Pen was in Lebanon, a fact of which the authorities were well aware. It was an attempt to get around her parliamentary immunity and, is in fact, an attack on her right to the free exercise of power as head of a political organisation.
This (Le Pen winning) is still not a central scenario. (But) relative to the Greek experience it is much clearer for my money that if France was to leave it would be a much more negative event for the euro than if Greece was to leave. If that probability continues to rise we would anticipate that would continue to weigh increasingly heavily on the euro.
No-one in business really believes, at least in France, that Marine Le Pen will make it. Clearly she is leading in the first round but if you look at history and what has been the case (for) many years there is no chance that she is getting elected.
Italy represents, in our view, the main risk to euro-area stability. We think that the probability of a negative development in Italy in the short- or medium-term is greater than a victory of the leader of the National Front, Le Pen, in the forthcoming French presidential election.
It looks superficially that Hamon and Melenchon were not looking to tie up and that reduces market pricing of a Le Pen victory. But there's still a decent probability the two candidates are forced together.
Most polls suggest the Front National will lose the election. That said, polls have been wrong recently, so we have to take it with a pinch of salt.
If Le Pen wins, we're going to have a crisis within the euro.
Again, it's not impossible, but it's also not a done deal that if the Front National win, that France will leave.
It seems like a broader, but fairly small, risk-off move. We saw the odds for a Le Pen victory move a bit higher this morning. That seemed to drive a bit of weakness in (bond prices in the euro zone) periphery as well.
If he doesn't straighten it out in the next, I would say, 30 days, people will just stop listening to him. When you look at the underlying fundamentals, they're quite good. The big question on the horizon is Marine Le Pen. If she wins, we're going to have a recession.
With unemployment and everything like that, people get lost and then comes someone like Donald Trump or, in Europe, ... these new right-wing people like Marine Le Pen. There are many countries that have had a long democratic tradition and to our surprise we see the return of right-wing parties across Europe - we thought we'd never see this again.
Based on all the polls, as well as the polarization in France, she has virtually no chance. People argue she can win because they doubt the polls after Brexit and Trump. However, in both cases the margins were much smaller than between Le Pen and Macron or Fillon.
Le Pen has taken care to present herself as a candidate with reasonable views, which has helped her to push the National Front from the fringes to the mainstream. Recent events, such as the refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, and the rise of populist leaders elsewhere, have also played into her hands.
The day before the U.S. election, pollsters gave Trump a 1.6 percent chance of victory, so while I wouldn't consider a Le Pen victory a baseline scenario, I wouldn't count her out.
I think the market is telling us a clear message that investors are finally waking up to the risk of a Le Pen win. It is highly questionable whether she would be able to (initiate a French exit from the EU or the euro) if she did win because parliament would not likely pass much ideas, but the initial market reaction would be very volatile and very negative.
In Britain we've seen that over the last summer. I'm pretty sure Marine Le Pen will be one of these candidates (in the final round) but I don't think she will be the winner of the race.
Risk premia on French government bonds are back up to the levels seen during the 2012 crisis. But even if Marine Le Pen (the leader of the far right) does not win the French presidential election, the real problem of monetary union would remain: Different approaches to economic and monetary policy. Radical euroskeptics are no longer in the mood for compromise, and are pushing to restore full national control over economic and monetary policy. More tumult lies ahead for the euro zone, with no end in sight for the ECB's loose monetary policy.
That's clearly the downside risk. I think if Marine Le Pen was elected … it would call into question the integrity of the euro zone. I think it's quite conceivable we're sitting here in May and the markets find the outcome quite bullish. Between now and then the markets could be choppy, kind of like we saw with some of the political events we saw last year. Ultimately, I think once we work through the uncertainty the backdrop is very strong.
A Le Pen win in France with a clear program to put the EU, the euro, NATO, etc up for referendum of course is going to drive these spread yields as we get closer to the election.
The move (in bond yields) is very much triggered by political uncertainty, especially in France. The market is pricing in the tail risk of Le Pen winning the presidential elections.
Such a withdrawal would leave (Fillon's) party, Les Républicains, in disarray only two months before the first round of the elections on April 23, and there is no obvious substitute. Last week's surveys pointed to a second round between Le Pen and Macron, with Macron winning by a wide margin, 65/35. However, the opinion remains very volatile and uncertainty remains high.
Well, you know … I didn't believe in Brexit and I didn't believe in (President Donald) Trump's election so nobody can tell for sure but we are going to work a lot against it. All of us, all of the Republican party (and) the Republican voters so I think, well, (a Le Pen victory) shouldn't happen.
The likelihood of Le Pen winning is unlikely, but the situation in France is certainly raising fears among investors. French bonds will continue to underperform even though a lot is priced into the market.
We've picked up a lot of interest from (French) expats who can have a bet here but can't have a bet in Paris. We took the biggest single bet we've ever taken for a foreign election, other than the British or American ones. Ten thousand pounds for Marine Le Pen to win, from someone who walked into one of our south London betting shops.
European markets have really struggled to make any headway today with investors once again reluctant to try their luck against a backdrop of rising political risk. Narrowing opinion polls in Germany eroding Angela Merkel's lead, along with Marine Le Pen launching her bid for French president at the weekend, has seen European stocks roll over, and that's after the geopolitics surrounding US President Donald Trump.
He does what he says. If you're on a battlefield you'll follow him. ... Marine Le Pen, I would follow her.
The likely withdrawal of Mr Fillon from the presidential race not only eliminates a pragmatic pro-business candidate but also puts the whole traditional right in disarray and thus in a dismal position to face the election. The most obvious beneficiaries are the candidates and parties that vocally contest the status quo, led by Marine Le Pen. Their economic agendas are worrying enough to probably explain an increase in France's risk premium.
"The France (bond yield) spread to Belgium is the gauge we use for political risk, and that has widened further after an adviser to Le Pen fleshed out their Frexit plans,"
The France spread to Belgium is the gauge we use for political risk, and that has widened further after an adviser to Le Pen fleshed out their Frexit plans. And with Fillon under the microscope as well, France is definitely underperforming.
The more recent widening of this spread is clearly linked to anxieties over the French Presidential elections in April and the appointment of radical-left winger Benoit Hamon two days ago, together with the possible emerging scandal associated with Francis Fillon's wife as paid-secretary, that together makes the establishment parties chances weaker and the presidential race much more open and uncertain that before. A win for far right Marine le Pen, though still less likely but closer than any time before, certainly would (provoke any new action from the European Central Bank).
It's with pain and anger that we learn the identity of terrorist Alexandre Bissonnette, unfortunately known to many activists in Quebec for taking nationalist, pro-Le Pen and anti-feminist positions at Laval University and on social media.
I don't even want to think about it that would be a disaster, it would simply mean the destruction of Europe. Mrs Le Pen has announced plans for a referendum. She wants [France] to leave Europe, as if Europe were the source of all misfortunes. I would like it if she visited the rest of the world. This is not going to happen. I am convinced that things will turn out alright in Germany and I am absolutely convinced there won't be a problem in France. It is essential for the future of Europe that the elections in Germany and France go well.
A Le Pen victory would probably be an exogenous shock for the world, so if we were heading into a period where you were expecting the U.S. to raise interest rates at the mid-year point, you would wipe out those moves and perhaps the euro would just go up, perversely.
You've got Marine Le Pen steady on 28 percent for the first round but not really increasing that, and then you've got Macron coming up, you've got (Jean-Luc) Melenchon ? who is kind of hard left ? and if the socialists get a candidate they don't like, a lot of them may vote for Melenchon, so you really have an enormous mix here.
A lot of French people will vote against Le Pen.
If we look at the recent polls it is true that Marine Le Pen has been polling first for the first round, but I will remind you that one of the very important characteristics of the French electoral system is that we have two rounds for the presidential election.
For Marine Le Pen to make herself better known, as a woman, as a candidate, is certainly a key, because a presidential election is not only about a project but also about a person.
I'm just out of a meeting where we talked about our online viral campaigns and all the trips the candidate (Le Pen) will undertake, with one key theme per trip. We had one campaign ready for (Fillon's losing opponent Alain) Juppe and one for Fillon, so we could push it out immediately.
Maybe people have reduced their expectations of downside. It is difficult to get a clear reading (from options pricing) but the consensus is that it is going to be very hard for Le Pen to get in.
This is an issue for France but if Le Pen were to win, then it's an issue for the concept of the euro zone as a whole. I think the markets would vote with their feet first of all and spreads would widen significantly.
The left wing vote will be split by at least three candidates; Melenchon on the extreme left, the socialist candidate Manuel Valls and more to the center-left if you like, Mr (Emmanuel) Macron. If the second round is between Fillon and Le Pen then potentially many voters will abstain from voting for Fillon but I still don't think Le Pen will get very close to the presidency.
It is true that she's expanded the support of the Front National very successfully in the course of the last five or six years since she controlled the party, but I think still for a great majority of French voters and citizens, the Front national remains a rather frightening political party.
The failure of the right to do something and the failure of the left to change anything makes Marine Le Pen the person who represents change.
The French election will be the crucial test for Europe. To counter Le Pen, Fillon may have to move to the center. He will have to put quite a bit of water in his traditionalist wine.
I think the biggest single risk event will be the French election, where in the event Marine Le Pen wins the election, I think people would be very nervous about what the implication of that would be for the euro zone going forward. The outcome of the recent primaries appear to have reduced that probability, but I think we've all learned the elections are becoming increasingly unpredictable.
I don't see how the credit spread can go tighter under the risk of Le Pen, but I can see how it would go wider.
In France, the [polling results] gap between Le Pen and Fillon is far wider than the outcomes of Brexit and the US presidential election. The closer you get to an event, the more investment opportunities there are.
The polls don't really know the outcome. The markets won't be able to shake the fear that Le Pen has a one-in-four chance of winning.
The prospect of a Fillon presidency clearly is welcome in Berlin. If Le Pen loses and Renzi survives, Merkel will have a chance to shape European responses to Brexit, the refugee situation, the problems with the euro and Russia.
There had been some concern that if Sarkozy was up against Le Pen, that would not be a particularly good circumstance.
I think we have to be very careful not to have an immediate reaction after seeing Trump win and assume that Le Pen will also win in France. It's a very different system.
It's almost certain that Le Pen will finish in the top two in the first round of the presidential election. Remember this is a two-round election (so) Le Pen will finish top with around 30 percent (of the vote) -- so the important thing is who finishes up there with her. So really this Republican primary in November is a kind of presidential election in advance, because the left really doesn't have much of a chance.
What Mr. Wilders shares in common with Mr. Trump, Mr. (Viktor) Orban, Mr. (Milos) Zeman, Mr. (Nobert) Hofer, Mr. (Robert) Fico, Madame (Marine) Le Pen, Mr. Farage, he also shares with Da'esh (ISIS).
Most likely the center-right candidate is going to face a run-off against Marine Le Pen from the far-right and what you need in that second-round run-off is that ability to win over the disappointed voters of the Socialists whose candidate is probably going to drop out in the first round.
Marine Le Pen is bound to go. The date has not been set, it would be at the end of May or early June. She would go for a day or half a day. no details had been set yet except that "she will campaign for Brexit.
Obviously, the Front National has nothing to do with this private affair, neither directly or indirectly.
The consequence of this is populism – exemplified by Trump and Le Pen.
When she compares prayers in the streets to the German occupation, Marine Le Pen is in fact summoning up hatred. She is laying the Muslim community open to victimisation, in the usual style that the National Front employs, via fantasies, fear, waving the red flag of extremism, and this rebounds on the whole Muslim community.
We have in France, the Front National. We have a debate on that in Italy. We have a strong debate in the UK. It is going to be very, very difficult.
They are policies that one would more usually expect to see come from more right-wing political groupings and this is an indication of the cumulative effect of the attacks in 2015 on the political landscape in France. President Hollande is now competing with Nicolas Sarkozy on Sarkozy's natural battleground – security – and the broader shift to the right is playing into the hands of the Front National.
Jean-Marie Le Pen should show some wisdom. He should draw the consequences of the trouble he himself has created and perhaps give up his political responsibilities.
2017 is far away and we don't yet know who the candidates will be except, of course, for the Front National. It has a small advantage since the party won't be holding primaries. There's no contest over who will represent it. The election remains open on the right and, in any case, if the presidential election were to be held today, Marine Le Pen wouldn't win.
But the real question is: by how much will she lose? We can be certain she won't lose to the same extent as her father, Jean Marie Le Pen, in 2002. We're not looking at 82 percent to 18 percent. It will probably be a much-tighter race.
So, on the one hand we have institutions made for a simple, left-right split in political life. And on the other, the Front National, which is growing and, little-by-little, has led to the existence of three – rather than two – political forces, which split the cake into fairly even pieces. That means, eventually, French politics may go through a major restructure.
We are the new right. For Sarkozy it seems to be over. Marine Le Pen is already the head of the opposition. When we see the President of the Republic's score we have to ask ourselves, comparing it with Marine Le Pen and say, objectively, haven't people understood that we're in a new world and need a different perception of what the right will be.
When we ask them about their voting motivations and why they voted for Marine Le Pen, they say that at least she has it in her to call things by their name, to describe a situation with words and arguments that match their daily lives.
Where the Front National is ready to prevail in the second round, the left and the right are responsible for creating the conditions to prevent it.
The Front National success signifies a national force and also, from now on, a great local force. It's a vote calling for us to grow roots in all the territories of the Republic, to prepare for tomorrow's alternative.
The left lost badly except in a few strongholds. The Front National only ran in 600 cities; this means only one French voter in three had the chance to vote FN. The five percent score it got across the country is an illusion compared to its real potential.
Round two should switch from yellow card to red card; women and men who voted for the Front National, next Sunday should massively go over to UMP candidates to really make their opposition to the left felt.
Because we feel that their politics, whether their leaderships reflect it or not, within those parties, the Front National certainly, there are still elements of the old anti-Semitic brigade and that's of no interest to us.
Well, we want to embrace globalisation. We are not an anti-globalisation party. Le Pen is against globalisation, we are not. We want to embrace globalisation. We cannot embrace globalisation as part of a European Union which is stopping us, prohibiting us, from reaching out and having trade deals and agreements with the other parts of the world. Madness.
For me, a Holocaust denier can not be the doyen by age of a multinational assembly. I hope measures will be taken to avoid Le Pen presiding at the next parliament. The best solution would be that the French don't vote for him.
Sarkozy did extremely well. His strategy to attract at least one-third of the voters of the National Front, of the extreme right, proved to be a triumph. He destroyed Le Pen.
The Front National has demonstrated today that people subscribe to this movement's ideas. I believe that no one can say otherwise. Our voters want our candidates, to defend their ideas, therefore our ideas.
I think it's too early to know if France has abandoned its two-party- right-left system. Let's see the results of the European elections before judging whether Marine Le Pen's politics have borne fruit. At the end of May, we'll see if the Front National achieves a high score. We mustn't forget that the European elections are decided by proportional representation, which gives a clear advantage to small parties such as the FN. I think that, come May, we'll see if there's a third political force on the French political landscape.
The Le Pen family's been fighting for France for 30 years, and for ordinary people, not the rich.
I think that a lot of people […] are attracted by Le Pen.
The defeat of the Slovak nationalists who they considered in their camp was a blow to them and also the Sweden Democrats look like they may not join the Le Pen group, so she may struggle to actually form this group.
We are still independentists, federalists. We want independence everywhere, from Scotland to Catalonia or Crimea to Veneto. With Marine Le Pen we share some battles on immigration, taxes, agriculture, the euro, and the traditional family model. We still are federalists. She has another political vision. We want to create a movement at a European level because Italy cannot fight alone.
The 'No' itself is not compatible. I'm sure that if you put Le Pen and de Villiers and also the left who are against (the Constitution) and put them in one room and ask them to come up with an alternative they will be completely incapable of doing it. So they are quite incompatible. I think the 'Yes' is compatible but the 'No' is not.