Interest rates

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Last quote about Interest rates

Diane Swonk
I think there's still two rate hikes. What they want to do is set up a trajectory so there's a path to rate hikes and unwind the balance sheet in a measured and slow way before Chair Yellen leaves office.feedback
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May 24 2017
In this page you'll find all points of view published about Interest rates. You'll find 461 quotes on this page. You can filter them by date and by a person’s name. The 4 people who have been quoted more about Interest rates are: Janet L. Yellen, Peter Boockvar, Quincy Krosby and Thomas Simons. Janet L. Yellen specifically said: “We think a gradual path of increases in short-term interest rates can get us to where we need to be, but we don't want to wait too long to have that happen.”.
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All quotes about Interest rates

Diane Swonk

If any of his budgets are really realized, they're deficit-inducing and he wants to keep interest rates low. Any president that's wanted to keep interest rates low has ended up with a lot of inflation, like Truman, Johnson and Nixon. It's interesting. This also illustrates the gap between the administration and the House and Senate. The House and Senate have consistently wanted someone more hawkish at the Fed than Janet Yellen. It doesn't surprise me one bit.feedback

Diane Swonk

Without border adjustment, you're $2.3 trillion in the hole and that means you have to move to a higher corporate tax rate.feedback

Ward McCarthy - Jefferies

His position on Yellen has changed a lot since he was candidate Trump. Now that he's President Trump, a low interest rate policy is not so bad because he wants the economy to grow well. A big focus of President Trump's objectives is trade and consequently he just doesn't want a dollar that's too strong. It's going to hurt the U.S. trade position.feedback

Michael Feroli

Giving lip service to strong dollar policy had been accepted for 20 years or more. On interest-rate policy, I think it's tricky, because arguably the third mandate of the Fed is low long-term interest rates. So I don't think just being a low-interest rate person is a problem. I don't think this is per se a threat to Fed independence, but it's definitely a little bit different than what we've become used to.feedback

Greg McBride

As president, having a steady hand at the controls of monetary policy is better than switching jockeys midrace.feedback

Scott Clemons - Brown Brothers Harriman

The norm is for presidents to observe the importance of an independent central bank. The norm is for presidents to pay lip service to a stronger dollar, almost as if it's a point of national pride. But like so much else about his presidency, he says out loud what other holders of that office have been more circumspect about.feedback

Steve Moore

Trump is walking a policy tightrope. A president of course has to adapt to changing circumstances, but he also has to honor his central campaign promises. Janet Yellen and Obamacare have to go.feedback

Carl Tannenbaum - Northern Trust

Maybe he's learning on the job. It's not easy to find somebody who is going to have credibility in that job. The confirmation process is not an assured thing these days. And the markets weigh in if they were to nominate somebody who didn't share the Fed's view of itself as independent.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We think a gradual path of increases in short-term interest rates can get us to where we need to be, but we don't want to wait too long to have that happen.feedback

Richard Koo

When Trump came up with this infrastructure spending (plan), you notice that both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer came out and welcomed that as the real pillar supporting the U.S. economy.feedback

Jan Hatzius

I think it makes some sense. Personally I don't think it's really urgent for them to start reducing the balance sheet, but assuming that you want to do this at some point in the next year or two, I think it does make some sense to get started before the leadership transition at the Fed. There will likely be a new Fed chair after early 2018, when Janet Yellen's term comes to an end and having already established a bit of a baseline path for how the balance sheet is going to be adjusted probably makes sense at that point to reduce the uncertainty that you otherwise get in that period.feedback

Jim Caron - Morgan Stanley & Co. International

If they're talking about doing it this year, then Janet Yellen is saying under the Janet Yellen Fed, they are starting the balance sheet winddown. They are not kicking the can to the next person. That's kind of setting the course for the next Fed chairperson to handle it.feedback

Josh Feinman - Deutsche Asset Management

I think the operative word here is going to be gradual. They're not going to want to go cold turkey. They don't want to do anything disruptive. When the process is underway, the Fed doesn't like to shake the trees too much. That's another reason I think they would like to get this plan articulated, announced and on its way before Yellen leaves.feedback

Adam Posen - Bank of England

The Fed is going back to normal in the sense that it's not scared to do the moves that it would normally do in response to the forecast. You're nearing the end of this Fed regime and it's not just Chair (Janet) Yellen, Vice-Chair (Stanley) Fischer (who get a say), President Trump gets to appoint five members of the seven member Federal Reserve Board of Governors in the next 10 months and so you want to get this policy of tightening underway before that uncertainty kicks in.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Young adults who regularly or sometimes worried when they were children about care, safety or having enough to eat are also less likely to be employed, less likely to have consistent income month-to-month and less likely to pay all of their current monthly bills in full, compared with those who never or rarely worried about these concerns as children.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

The market has embraced the Trump agenda through thick and thin. Anything that looks as if that may be delayed or watered-down or that he is not the great negotiator that he campaigned on has an extended, overbought market questioning whether or not valuations at this point are correct.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

There's a real policy timing mismatch here. Yellen is moving the ball down the court, while Trump still has failed to put the ball in play.feedback

David Rosenberg - AeroFarms

My recommendation is to stop wasting your time trying to explain something that is as simple as an asset class that is priced for perfection at some points realizes that the world is not a perfect place. A president can certainly fly a drone whenever and wherever he wants, but he is never bigger than the business cycle and over time has little influence over investment returns as well.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

The different perspectives of Chairwoman Yellen and President Trump further underscore the potential for a future collision, rather than productive collaboration.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

We are so used to a market that has been underpinned by accommodative monetary policy. We have gotten away from what markets are supposed to do. They are supposed to recalibrate, take time, burn out froth and wait for the next catalyst to push the market higher.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

This research underscores the value of starting young to develop basic work habits and skills. These habits and skills help prepare people for work, help them enter the labor market sooner, meet with more success over time and be in a position to develop the more specialized skills and obtain the academic credentials that are strongly correlated with higher and steadier earnings. Ensuring that all of our kids have 'strong foundations' will help build a similarly strong foundation for the U.S. economy.feedback

George Selgin

The bigger the Fed's credit footprint, the more it interferes with the efficient employment and pricing of credit. By directing a large share of savings to purchases of longer-term MBS and Treasury securities, for example, the Fed has artificially raised both the prices of those securities, and the importance of the housing market and the federal government relative to the rest of the U.S. economy. It has also dramatically increased its portfolio's duration gap and, by so doing, the risk that it will suffer losses should it sell assets before they mature.feedback

Daan Struyven - Goldman Sachs Group

This could be important for balance sheet policy because many Republican-leaning economists have criticized quantitative easing (QE) and have expressed a preference for rapid balance sheet rundown, perhaps even through asset sales. Our forecast is that the discussion around reinvestment continues for most of this year and the plan is formally announced in December 2017. At that meeting, we expect the committee to hold the funds rate steady after hiking in both June and September. We expect the quarterly hikes to resume in March 2018.feedback

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

The markets are relaxed for two reasons: first, the Dutch voted in favour of Europe which definitely helps the European atmosphere. I am convinced the French will also vote the same. The other issue is that the US rate increase happened as expected. The rate hike is being interpreted as the US economy doing better than expected. So, a rate hike is acceptable. But much more important is that Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear we shouldn't worry about more rate increases any time soon.feedback

Alex Edwards - European Central Bank

The euro has reacted positively to Rutte's win, or at least it's been well supported since the result. The Fed decision and statement last night got more of a reaction - Yellen was a lot less hawkish than investors were expecting. Expect EUR/USD ranges to be fairly narrow over the next month or so in the run up to the much anticipated French elections, arguably the biggest market event of the year.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We're operating in an environment where the U.S. economy is performing well and risks seem pretty balanced. I think people can feel pretty good about the economic outlook.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The unemployment rate has moved way down and many more people feel optimistic about their prospects in the labor market. There's job security. We're seeing more people who are feeling free to quit their jobs, getting outside offers for other opportunities. So I think the job market, which is an important focus for us, is certainly improving.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

What we'd want to have is confidence in the economy's trajectory, a sense that the economy will make progress, that we're not overly worried about downside risks with adverse shocks that could hurt the economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Our short-term interest rate target is our key active tool of policy. We think it's much easier using that tool to communicate the stance of policy. We have much more experience with it and have a better idea of its impacts on the economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

That is a great question. I appreciate your asking it. The simple message is the economy is doing well. We are seeing more people who are feeling free to quit their jobs, getting outside offers, looking for other opportunities. I think the job market which is an important focus for us is certainly improving. We know there are problems that face particularly people with less skill and education, and in certain sectors of the economy.feedback

Jared Bernstein

The story regarding the Fed right now is less about today's expected rate hike and more about the tension between Trump's ideas and the policies that would really help the economy.feedback

Christopher Whalen

They're late. What they should have done was stopped reinvestment at the end of last year, mostly as a symbolic gesture. Then you could selectively let the (trading) desk (at the New York Fed) sell MBS when there's a rally – trickle the stuff out, get 100 to 200 billion (dollars) off the books each quarter. The street is starving. These are all signals the Fed should be paying attention to.feedback

Andrew Hollenhorst - Citigroup Global Markets
Ebrahim Rahbari - Citigroup Global Markets

Chair Yellen has previously indicated that balance sheet reduction will occur once the FOMC has 'confidence the economy is on a solid course'. Any calendar or policy rate threshold guidance relative to market expectations of Q1 2018 would provoke a market reaction.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

If you let the balance sheet start to run off, you'd see a rise in long-term interest rates. You'd have gotten an immediate steepening of the yield curve. The Fed did it somewhat backwards.feedback

Christopher Whalen

The problem is, they should be adjusting the balance sheet first. By keeping all of this duration locked up at the Fed, they're actually keeping rates artificially low, so there's no response to policy. When they change the fed funds, the whole curve should move, but it doesn't.feedback

Mark Hamrick

Right now the number one question is what is the likelihood that rates could be rising more aggressively than what people and investors currently expect. The two words that Janet Yellen seems to be voicing more often lately is 'policy uncertainty.' That is as close to directly referencing the outcome of the election ... as she is going to get.feedback

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

With the economy improving a rate increase is doable, but what's much more important is what comes next. I believe Janet Yellen will continue to play her rate game, but you musn't be scared that there are going to be further radical rate increases. Her rate changes will be gradual. No one will get hurt because she knows full well that with the world's debt as it is, a sharp rate increase is not manageable.feedback

Omer Esiner - Commonwealth Foreign Exchange

Any hint that further policy normalization over the coming months is likely should keep the dollar biased higher. Additional hikes in June and September would open up the calendar for a possible fourth interest rate hike this year at the Fed's final meeting of 2017 in December.feedback

James A. Wilcox

The thing that makes it relatively easy for the Fed is that fiscal policy usually takes a long time. Financial markets don't wait for all of that to happen, of course, but the actual spending and employment effects – they usually take a while to show up.feedback

Jon Faust

The thought that by tweaking the funds rate you could send some kind of political message is crazy, and they know that, and they're not going to do it. On the other hand, this is the first first quarter in about six years that isn't looking scary, so it's not surprising they would be considering a rate increase.feedback

Mitsushige Akino - Ichiyoshi Investment Management

The market is holding up well considering how much it had already rallied in the previous session. But we have the Fed meeting coming up. An interest rate hike by the Fed is almost fully expected, and with the yen unlikely to weaken much further with a tightening mostly priced in, participants are wary of taking domestic stocks much higher.feedback

Masahiro Ichikawa - Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management

The markets are focusing on when the Fed will raise rates next time or the pace of its rate hike, so the tone of Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be closely watched.feedback

Dan Suzuki - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

In the near term, the commentary and the dot plot could drive a short-term movement in the market, but I wouldn't think it's going to be the spark of a long lasting sell-off in the market, given the macro backdrop is very supportive. But that doesn't mean you couldn't get a 1 percent down move on the day, if [Fed Chair Janet Yellen] sounds more hawkish or the dot plot comes in more hawkish than the market is expecting.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

The wage pressure was the key in today's data, and it has gained most significant attention among other readings. The wage number released today was not really a blowout number, but still a very decent one. Only if the number was extremely vile, then the Fed was going to stop their interest rate hike, but now it looks like that we are going to see a rate hike next week.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

This is the last piece of puzzle when it comes to the US interest rate hike which the Fed is going to make. So far the Fed has adopted a very hawkish tone when it comes to the interest rate hike.feedback

Bill Gross

In China, the ratio has more than doubled in the past decade to nearly 300 percent. Since 2007, China has added $24 trillion worth of debt to its collective balance sheet. Over the same period, the U.S. and Europe only added $12 trillion each. Keeping the cost of credit at a yield that is not too high, nor too low, but just right. (Federal Reserve chair) Janet Yellen is a modern day Goldilocks.feedback

Sean Spicer

Let me get back to you on that one. I don't have any comment on the Federal Reserve.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

At our meeting later this month, the (Federal Open Market) Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. Given how close we are to meeting our statutory goals (of maximum employment and price stability), and in the absence of new developments that might materially worsen the economic outlook, the process of scaling back accommodation (raising interest rates) likely will not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016.feedback

Scott Redler

The market does have a bit of an exhaustive feel. I think the bears would love to think with two major events like the Trump address to Congress and the Snap IPO, with heavy valuations, and now Yellen pretty much signaling three rate hikes will happen, it would be the kind of week they sell the news and we finally get a corrective phase. Traders are trying to stay with the rally but the higher we go, the harder it is.feedback

Mark Cabana - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

This is quite unusual in relation to recent history. It does make one wonder if there was some kind of coordination, intentionally, to talk up the market. The last time we heard from Yellen and [Fed Vice Chair Stanley] Fischer, they were discussing a gradual approach. Just the drum beat of Fed speakers this week shows they at least wanted to have the option of going at this meeting. The fact the market is handling it means it would be disappointed and quite surprised if it didn't hike. That makes you think the Fed will follow through.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I really liked the form of reasoning. [Economics] has a way of analyzing issues that is systematic and it appealed to the math side of me.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

It came together that my concern about people and jobs, and my love of math, found a happy marriage in economics.feedback

Ian Shepherdson - Pantheon Macroeconomics

The Fed will hike unless next week's payroll report is calamitous. That's unlikely, so we expect rates to rise.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Fiscal and regulatory policies – which are of course the responsibility of the administration and the Congress – are best suited to address such adverse structural trends.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy has essentially met the employment portion of our mandate and inflation is moving closer to our 2 percent objective. [We] realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.feedback

Zoltan Varga

If the good mood returns next week, OTP could rise again.feedback

Roberto Perli - Cornerstone Macro

I think Yellen probably still would prefer to be cautious, but it is becoming hard for her to corral the growing number of FOMC members who prefer to move when, like now, there is a clear opportunity.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

All are on the same page, including hawks and doves, and especially Dudley. Hopefully, we'll see some consistency in the commentary of Brainard tomorrow, and if we see something neutral to slightly hawkish from Yellen Friday, you'll have to lock it in. The fact you had Harker, Williams, and Dudley all basically speaking at the same time and trying to make it clear a rate hike is coming is interesting four days before the blackout begins.feedback

Andrew Liveris

All the CEOs that were here today and in the last meeting are very encouraged by the pro-business policies of President Trumpand his cabinet.feedback

Richard Clarida - Pimco

March would make a lot of sense to me but if the Yellen Fed wants to get that priced in, they've got some work to do. This is a Fed that expects that if the data play out, they're going to be hiking three times this year. The only question for them is do they want to tee up the March meeting so that it's not a surprise or do they want to be really bold, not tee up the market and then hike in March.feedback

Gina Sanchez

I think the trend is still going to be for dollar strength, but I think that this dollar weakness is interesting and telling, because Yellen was really out talking the dollar up. I mean, she was making fairly hawkish comments, and that should lead to a stronger dollar.feedback

Boris Schlossberg

The market is not buying what Janet Yellen is saying. And that is actually a very, very telling sign. When the Fed chief says, pretty much unabashedly, that she's going to go to three rate hikes, and she sort of talks up the economy, and yet the market remains skeptical, that's telling me something. That tells me that both markets remain skeptical about the continuity of this potential growth as we go forward.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

[Yellen] made it very clear that the economic data matters, and the trajectory of monetary policy is predicated on better economic data, along with inflation moving higher. We're going to be watching the data releases that come out tomorrow.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Nothing going on in these international discussions binds us to carry out things in our rule making process.feedback

Andy Barr

Maybe we shouldn't be expecting so much from unconventional policies.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I think central banks all over the world have recognized that an independent central bank that can focus on the long-term health of the economy . . . gives rise to a better economic environment.feedback

Neil Massa - Manulife Asset Management

She (Yellen) has made it clear that she wants to raise rates. Before she spoke yesterday, the March meeting wasn't in play, but now that is definitely on the table and I think the numbers today bode well for her to do that.feedback

Jeb Hensarling

After eight years, there is zero evidence that zero interest rates and a bloated Fed balance sheet lead to a healthy economy. Clearly, Americans have a newfound expectation that our economy will grow healthier with different policies coming out of Washington.feedback

Jeb Hensarling

We must be vigilant to ensure that our central bankers do not one day become our central planners. There is zero evidence that zero interest rates and a bloated Fed balance sheet lead to a healthy economy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy is recovering from a very severe crisis. We've put in place stronger financial regulation that has forced our banks to build up their capital buffers to deal with problem loans and to strengthen themselves to the point where they have been to support economic growth and recovery in our economy. The Federal Reserve has put in place highly accommodative monetary policies meant to spur spending in the economy and restore low unemployment or to achieve the goal of maximizing employment and price stability as assigned to us by Congress.feedback

Takuya Takahashi - Daiwa Securities Group

The market took heart from Yellen's comments and such positive sentiment will likely last throughout the day.feedback

Ayako Sera - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust

There are no big factors preventing the Fed from raising rates in March. Unless the emerging markets become volatile or the U.S. economic data shows weakness, the March rate hike is highly plausible.feedback

Rodrigo Catril - National Australia Bank

Triggered a sell-off in U.S. Treasury yields and a broad dollar rally as she left the door open for a rate hike as soon as the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March.feedback

Avery Shenfeld

There's a nod to further tightening ahead and the risks of waiting too long, and there is a reference to the need at upcoming meetings to evaluate if the economy is evolving in a way that makes further hikes appropriate. Note the use of the plural on 'meetings,' so there was no specific allusion to a March hike in the statement, and Yellen also emphasized that any hikes will be 'gradual.feedback

Paul Christopher

People want to put money into that because they want to believe that growth will be stronger, that inflation will be more of an issue - a more normal economy, in other words. If they wanted to raise rates a third time and they wanted to start priming the pump or preparing the markets, especially the equity markets, now would be the time to do it.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Consumer spending has continued to rise at a healthy pace, supported by steady income gains, increases in the value of households' financial assets and homes, favorable levels of consumer sentiment, and low interest rates. Of course, it is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity.feedback

James Angel

Often politicians will want central banks to do things that are short term expedient, but long term dangerous for the economy. So, for example, politicians often want central banks to print lots of money, because in the short run printing money is like taking a drink, it feels really good, but if you print too much, you'll have an awful hangover later.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We will continue to coordinate with the Treasury Department, which is itself a member of several international forums related to financial services, such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors, as well as with the other U.S. supervisory agencies that participate in various international forums.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

In exercising our longstanding authorities and responsibilities for consulting with our foreign counterparts, we share the objective that the whole U.S. government must work constructively to ensure a strong, stable U.S. economy and financial system. Strong regulatory standards enhance the stability of the U.S. financial system. By participating in the development of international regulatory standards, the Federal Reserve can influence the standards in ways that promote the financial stability of the United States and the competitiveness of U.S. firms.feedback

Omer Esiner - Commonwealth Foreign Exchange

The tone is overall more hawkish than what the market had expected. The market seems to be under-pricing an upcoming rate hike. This doesn't mean they will move in March, but the Fed wants to have the option to move.feedback

John Briggs - NatWest

She's less cautious, that's for sure. Normally, Yellen talks about downside risks. She just talked about the upside risk.feedback

Ward McCarthy - Jefferies

She's being more balanced rather than overwhelmingly dovish and consequentially means it's broadly hawkish.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise. At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate. I can't tell you which meeting it would be. Changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook. It is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold.feedback

Kathleen Brooks - GAIN Capital

The euro is being propped up by real weakness in the pound which is allowing it to maintain its gains against the U.S. dollar. While the weaker pound is helping to lift the euro, we also saw weak data out of the euro zone today which might show that the European recovery story has hit the skids.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We don't want to base current policy on speculation about what may come down the line. We will wait to gain greater clarity on policy changes. We want to wait to start this process until the process of normalization is well underway. I can say emphatically, that partisan politics plays no role in our decisions about the appropriate stance of monetary policy. I believe we would have a much weaker economy if … we had followed the dictates of that rule.feedback

Simon Derrick - Bank of New York

We're still early into the new administration so we're yet to get details of fiscal strategy and that's going to have an important impact on how the Fed guides policy.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

That's right. It's too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold.feedback

Martin van Vliet - ING Group

If Yellen wants March to be a live meeting as other Fed officials have suggested it is, she will have to adopt a more hawkish tone beyond the usual reference to data dependency, . Currently we calculate a market implied probability of around 17 percent for a March rate hike.feedback

Jakob Christensen - Danske Bank

This (inflation data) is important in that it continues a trend we have seen and fits in with this global reflation theme. 2.5 percent is still short of the 3 percent target that the central bank has but if this trend continues, the central bank will have to consider tightening monetary policy. There are some structural factors we should keep in mind - one is the impact of the fear of terrorism on tourism, and trade with Russia is also slow to pick up.feedback

Chris Weston

Fundamentally, the U.S. banks are simply being used as a vehicle to express reflation and 'Trumponomics'. Although last night really belonged to Janet Yellen whose prepared comments that waiting too long to tighten would be 'unwise' and a further review its policy stance will take place at its upcoming meetings.feedback

Peter Tuz - Chase

It's actually a very wise move to try to get the rate hikes going sooner rather than later to cut off the potential for inflation, although I really don't see inflation picking up all that much over the next year or so.feedback

Alan Gayle - RidgeWorth Investments

Yellen seemed to have her dancing shoes on this morning and was able to steer clear of any comments that might upset the market. In so doing, the stock market has been able to hold onto its gains.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Precisely when we take an action -- March, May or June -- I can't tell you. I would say every meeting is live. I would also hope that fiscal policy changes will be consistent with putting U.S. fiscal accounts on a sustainable trajectory. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity.feedback

Andre Bakhos - Janlyn Capital

The market is pricing in good times ahead but the question is whether the administration is going to be able to deliver on the promises made. The world listens to what Yellen has to say and her speech does have a potential to create an interesting reality check.feedback

Henry Croft - Accendo Markets

It's mostly those sectors that are more FX influenced, importing and exporting to the United States, that will be impacted (by Yellen's speech). A weaker dollar so far today has seen them fall off.feedback

Kaneo Ogino

People are just waiting for Yellen's testimony, and depending on what she says, the dollar could test the upside again.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

Yellen does not need to say anything in detail. I think she'll be very cautious, so currencies might not move so much. She might suggest some possibility of the Fed hiking rates in March, but I think that risk is very small.feedback

Jon Faust

There are just a lot of ways this could go wrong, like spinning off toward a trade war.feedback

Kumiko Ishikawa

The news weighed on the dollar against the yen because it's a hard situation to understand, and also to understand what kind of broader fallout it will have.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

We're increasing the probability of rate hikes. The ECB is cutting [quantitative easing] QE this year, the Bank of England is going to end QE this year and possibly raise rates. You have the Bank of Japan getting tested every night in their yield curve control experiment. I think that central banks don't matter is unrealistic.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

The market's thinking central banks aren't going to matter this year. I don't see that as realistic.feedback

Michael Arone - State Street Global Advisors

I do think the market underestimates that a bit. For 10 years, global central banks have been easing. I think she's going to want to demonstrate the need for the Fed's independence, so I expect comments on that, particularly given it's been called into question by some Republicans and even the president himself. She'll continue to talk up three rate hikes this year, and she'll continue to suggest the Fed remains on track to raise rates gradually.feedback

John Stoltzfus - Oppenheimer Holdings

I don't think Janet Yellen will provide anything of shock value. I think if she's perceived in any way of being more hawkish, it's probably because the market has had an awfully good run here. When she senses animal spirits in the market, she'll step up to the plate and indicate the Fed can raise rates as well as lower rates, and just cool the animal spirits a little.feedback

John Stoltzfus - Oppenheimer Holdings

The market is up 49 percent since that high, or 4.36 percent annualized. That's not a raging bull market. it's a recovering market and it's climbed a wall of worry. Now I think we're getting ready for a bull market because we're getting rid of the monetary policy stimulus. We're moving toward normalization and we're moving toward fiscal stimulus.feedback

Ian Lyngen

There's been a lot of chatter about how she's going to put March back on the table. Of course, she's going to say every meeting is live. I think it's a matter of nuance; how much jawboning does she attempt to do; how adamantly does she stress that a March rate hike is a possibility, how emphatically is she going to tell us each meeting is in play?feedback

Mark Grant - Hilltop

I think what the Fed says at this point is, for all practical purposes, irrelevant, because Mr. Trump is going to be able to appoint three members of the Fed. I think they're going to be business people and the days of an academic, economist Fed are going to be over. I also believe that Trump and company, as I call them, know as they put in the infrastructure or the military expansion that there's going to be a balance to the balance sheet, and … that the new people on the Fed are going to keep interest rates low.feedback

Christopher Whalen

The Republicans are feeling their oats in terms of pushing their agenda, which goes very much contrary to what the board's been doing for the last few years. She'll defend the Fed's position in what they have done to date. But ultimately, it's not her job to tell them what to do. The institutional memory of the Fed during that battle of Dodd-Frank is when they came very close to having all their regulatory powers stripped away. They're going to have to be very aware of the political winds, because they've clearly changed.feedback

Dick Bove

The elimination of Daniel Tarullo as a force within the Fed and American banking is a very positive step toward real deregulation in core banking. It suggests that the banks will be able to operate more freely in the financial markets in obtaining funds and manufacturing products. This is a big, big plus.feedback

Dick Bove

The opportunity to rein in the Fed will exist. More importantly, the Tarullo regulations can be eased. The ability of banks to acquire raw material and make loans based on free market considerations will be enhanced. The Fed's stranglehold on the banking industry and its ability to function freely will be eased.feedback

William Lee

The new supervisory emphasis will likely reshape the way in which the Fed implements Dodd-Frank requirements to relieve smaller banks of some of the associated compliance burdens and costs. The riskiness of bank activities may play a growing role in setting capital levels, rather than stress test results.feedback

Hussein Sayed

The Fed's statement on February 1 didn't provide any additional clues on monetary policy direction, and as of last week, markets were only pricing in 13.3 percent chance for a rate hike in March and 23.7 percent in May. ... it's going to be interesting on which side will Yellen move the needle.feedback

Mark Grant - Hilltop

So all this talk of a three interest rate or four interest rate hike, in my opinion, is baloney.feedback

Danielle DiMartino Booth

It is a culture where you're not allowed to raise your hand and say, You know what? There's something wrong with this picture.feedback

Koji Fukaya - FPG Securities

Trump has just taken a positive approach to tax reforms and infrastructure spending. It remains to be seen if this has any impact on Yellen, as the Trump administration's lack of policy clarity seemed like a factor that made the Fed hesitant to raise rates.feedback

David Woo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

A growing number of investors are worried that potential trade wars with Mexico and China could lead to tariffs and higher prices. With many investors having loaded up on Trump trades after the elections, their willingness to continue to give the benefit of doubt to the new administration appears to be wearing thin.feedback

Tom Porcelli - RBC Capital Markets

Given the uncertainty of timing on the fiscal agenda and the relatively modest uptick in inflation thus far this year, we think it will be difficult for the committee to get enough members onboard for a hike in March. But Yellen could certainly move the 'perception' needle on this.feedback

Mark Zandi - Moody's Analytics

A lot of what the Federal Reserve will do this year will depend on what President Trump and Congress do, and at the moment we have no idea what will emerge from Congress. Until there is some clarity about what President Trump and Congress have in mind, I think the Fed is going to be cautious.feedback

Diane Swonk

The Fed has been pretty consistent that it wants the rate hikes to come at a gradual pace, but that could change if Fed officials believe the budget-and-tax package that Trump is pushing is too big and coming too late in the economic cycle, with the economy already at full employment. She is going to want to fly under the radar as much as possible this week.feedback

Jack Ablin

I actually think Trump and Yellen are on the same page. I think they want the same thing. Let the economy run hot and drag your feet raising rates.' I don't see a lot of controversy. The controversy could be around the independence of the Fed and [Sen.] Rand Paul wanting to audit the Fed.feedback

Daniel Tarullo - Federal Reserve

On or around April 5. It has been a great privilege to work with former Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen during such a challenging period.feedback

Justin Lederer - Cantor Fitzgerald

You have Yellen, and we have to wait two or three weeks to see what the tax announcement looks like.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

I think ideally, [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen, in her models, wants to raise three times for the next three years and get to her magic 3 percent. They said they're not even going to raise once until June. I think she is going to be a little more hawkish next week. I think she wants to give herself flexibility that March is a real possibility. [And] I think the market is not set up for that.feedback

John Briggs - NatWest

Yellen is next week. So what's going to entice you to put capital to work right now, and we're in fiscal limbo and any large decisions you make can get turned around.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

Regardless of what Harker thinks we know that it really only matters what Yellen, Fischer and Dudley think. As its clear that the Fed only likes to raise rates on days where there is a press conference and they are scheduled for 4 this year at the same time they want to hike 3 times, they better get moving then. We still are calling for a March hike but the fed funds futures market barely blinked after Harker.feedback

Michael Metcalfe - State Street Global Markets

While inflation is forecast to rise sharply later this year, online measures of inflation warn that it is already a growing concern. The good news, is even the possibility of an interest rate hike in 2017 may lend some support to sterling, the weakness of which has been one of the main drivers of higher inflation.feedback

Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

No one anticipates that Janet Yellen will add restrictive measure at 2 p.m.. However, analysts will search for clues for whether the Committee has an inclination to do so in six weeks. The limitations of the text give the FOMC little opportunity this afternoon to convey a discernible shift of sentiment within its ivory tower. Using the futures market as a guide, investors currently estimate the probability of adding restrictive measures at the next gathering at 36 percent. As a reminder, the 'dot plots' extrapolate to three separate rounds of tightening for 2017.feedback

Craig Erlam

In the absence of a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen following today's announcement, investors will be left to pour over the statement that it released alongside the decision to see whether views have changed on the path of interest rates this year since the last meeting. Given that the Fed is none-the-wiser when it comes to President Donald Trump's spending and tax plans, I would imagine the views of policy makers will be unchanged since the middle of December and they will reiterate an intention to hike three times.feedback

David Bahnsen

Yellen kind of had control of where things were going all by herself, and now we see President Trump and the postelection kind of movement and this anticipation, that's really running the show. What happens when we get these two forces going against each other, is perhaps some movement forward in fiscal stimulus and then some tightening in monetary. That's our big thesis that we think 2017 has. We don't know is what that tug of war between the two persons will look like.feedback

Larry McDonald - Amazon.com

There's disconnect between [Fed Chair] Janet Yellen and the Fed and Trump. This past week we saw something very interesting. Yellen was talking the dollar up and Trump was talking the dollar down. That's highly unusual, so the market's going to be looking if there's a continuation of that disconnect.feedback

David Roche - Hotels.com

A lot of [Trump's policies], such as border tax and spending more money in a full employment economy, while the act of an economic ignoramus, are nevertheless going to boost inflation, which means, Mrs. Yellen, who is not the world's most exciting person but is certainly not an economic ignoramus, will be increasing interest rates, which pushes up the dollar.feedback

Wang Chunying - State Administration of Foreign Exchange

The process of U.S. Fed rate rises as well as the strengthening of the U.S. dollar needs more observation. As everyone remembers, the Fed was widely expected to raise rates three or four times in 2016 after the rate increase at the end of 2015, but it only raised it once.feedback

Koji Fukaya - FPG Securities

Yellen did not particularly talk about speeding up the pace of rate hikes, which may have sounded as less hawkish for some.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

As seen in the US treasury market response to a still dovish Janet Yellen and the rise in rates after her speech, the same thing is happening in longer term bonds in Europe after the very dovish commentary from Mario Draghi.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

It's fair to say, the economy is near maximum employment and inflation is moving toward our goal. As the economy approaches our objectives, it makes sense to gradually reduce the level of monetary policy support.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

After the weekend and Monday, it's going to be very interesting. What happens when we get to brass tacks will be interesting for sure.feedback

Aaron Kohli - BMO Capital Markets

She certainly gave the market a big push. Just looking at March probabilities, they went form an 18 percent chance (of a rate hike) to 25. The market went from pricing slightly less than two hikes to slightly more than two hikes in 2017.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

Next week we'll have 2-, 5- and 7-year auctions, a little bit of supply, and a light data week, so the focus is going to be on Trump, and for the most part, the first stuff that comes out of the gate is probably going to be (bond) market negative and it will be risk positive.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

I don't think we're going to see a huge surge in optimism again. We're not going to get another leg off of it, but I also don't think we're going to go back to where we were in October.feedback

Aaron Kohli - BMO Capital Markets

There's a short base that will get even bolder if rates get to that level. I think it's very possible you get that kind of spike up. What I would suggest is as soon as that happens you might go the other way.feedback

Simon Quijano-Evans - Commerzbank

Essentially the big part is how much they will actually hike this year - instead of two (rate rises) it could be three now. It does indicate that U.S. dollar strength seems to be staying in place, whether that is being driven by the reflation story in the U.S. or resulting from a more hawkish Fed, does not really matter.feedback

Jeremy Stretch - CIBC World Markets

It will be interesting to see whether (ECB President Mario) Draghi is pressed in the briefing on any degree of dissent within the council.feedback

Jeremy Stretch - CIBC World Markets

We have washed out a few positions this week and we're back to thinking about the underlying fundamentals, . Yellen's comments are interesting and constructive overall ... but the market does not want to be caught long ahead of the president-elect speaking (on Friday). For now it is cautious dollar buying rather than anything stronger.feedback

Masahiro Ayukai - Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities

Yellen spelled out fairly clearly that the Fed is going to raise rates a few times a year to three percent.feedback

Kit Juckes

Of all the speakers we're getting, either from Davos or from less ostentatious spots, the one I'm going to listen to most for now will probably still be Janet Yellen. As the U.S. economy approaches full employment, as wages rise but inflation rises nearly as quickly, how hawkish the Fed dares to be will determine how much the dollar rises.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Figuring out what the neutral interest rate is and setting the right path toward it is not like setting the thermostat in a house: You can't just set the temperature at 68 degrees and walk away.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The economy is vast and vastly complex, and its path can take surprisingly twists and turns.feedback

Junya Tanase - JPMorgan Chase Bank

If the US government officials further talk down the US dollar, the greenback could weaken and the correlation to the interest rate differentials may end.feedback

John Doyle

It just adds to the Fed's story and an argument that the economy is ready to weather interest rate hikes.feedback

John Canally - LPL Financial

The market's kind of treading water. We're in a tight narrow range here and we haven't really busted out of the range in a while. Once the earnings season heats up, once we get past the inauguration, maybe you'll get some sort of movement once companies start to give guidance.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

We will factor (any changes in economic policy) into the outlook and take account of their impact on what we need to do to achieve our dual mandate objectives.feedback

Joe Manimbo

The chair's remarks were consistent with the Fed adopting a quicker pace of tightening this year, a backdrop that's bullish for the dollar. I didn't see any increase in bullishness or hawkishness in her remarks today, but given the dollar's difficulties over the past couple days it shined a spotlight on rosy U.S. fundamentals, which are supportive of the U.S. currency.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Our foot remains on the pedal in part because we want to make sure the economic expansion remains strong enough to withstand an unexpected shock, given that we don't have much room to cut interest rates.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

Markets cannot be too optimistic about the UK parliament having the final vote. Brexit, hard or not, will weigh on the UK economy.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

The pound is still on a downward trend according to the technical analysis, compared to the highs marked in September and December last year.feedback

Stephen Stanley - Amherst

It seems like it will have a kind of dovish tint to it. Yellen is speaking a couple of times and Brainard. It felt kind of hawkish this week. I don't know if that's who is speaking or the general feel of the committee now. We'll know that next week.feedback

Jim Vogel

The broad anticipation was for hawkish thinking in particular with regard to inflation risk. But instead it turned out that the meeting talked a great deal about how to anticipate and plan for potential fiscal stimulus. That was something that (Fed Chair) Yellen appeared to downplay in the December press conference.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

Janet Yellen said some members built fiscal stimulus into their forecasts. She didn't say how many there were and what it means. How do they look at 2017? How do they view the risks given the new administration and what does that mean for policy response? That was the biggest question I had coming out of the last meeting.feedback

Greg Valliere

Trump is inclined to appoint critics of Janet Yellen, and I would view this as part of his long-range plan to get rid of her.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Economists are not certain about many things. But we are quite certain that a college diploma or an advanced degree is a key to economic success. Those with a college degree are more likely to find a job, keep a job, have higher job satisfaction and earn a higher salary.feedback

Alvin Tan

The biggest impact you see from the attacks in Berlin and Istanbul is the Swiss franc/euro. But apart from that the dollar continues to be strong after we had some rather positive comments from Janet Yellen.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The drivers of this increasing demand for those with college and graduate degrees are likely to continue to be important.feedback

Eric Viloria - Wells Fargo Securities

It seems like (Yellen) is acknowledging the continued improvement in the jobs market. That's pretty consistent with what she and other policymakers have been saying.feedback

Matt Jones - AXA Group

Traditionally, as you head into the week before Christmas, you see volumes slow down and a somewhat trendless market as people begin to position their portfolios for next year.feedback

Hussein Sayed

Although I believe that the market has run a little ahead of itself, as long as there's no bad news, this momentum trade can record new tops. For the rally to be justifiable in the longer run, we require earning expectations to overshoot, and this is still missing from the equation.feedback

Megane Greene - Roubini Global Economics

We couldn't get to sustained 4 percent growth even if we really tried. Let's pretend that Trump does get all of his stimulus. That will help around the edges, but it won't fundamentally change potential GDP growth in the United States. A massive stimulus probably wouldn't hit the real economy until 2018 or 2019, and then it would be just a sugar boost that quickly peters out.feedback

Ed Keon

I'm sure that the president-elect would like to have his pro-growth agenda not be killed in the cradle by the Federal Reserve. He's fortunate to have a chair at the Federal Reserve who shares a similar set of ideas about how the U.S. economy should perform to reach a greater percentage of people in the next couple of years.feedback

Ed Keon

Actually there's a good chance that [it] will, despite some friction, be a positive relationship for both of them. They both have a similar agenda in trying to improve the lives of people who have been left behind by improvements in markets and the economy over the past few years.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

Going into this, there were so many questions about what could the Fed say that could be a road block to Dow 20,000. I guess the Fed was more hawkish than the market had wanted even though Janet Yellen at the press conference basically said we're data dependent, and we don't know what the future holds in terms of stimulus and tax cuts.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Some of the participants, but not all of the participants, did incorporate some assumption of a change in fiscal policy into their projections, and that may have been a factor that was one of several that occasioned the shifts.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I believe my predecessor and I called for fiscal stimulus when the unemployment rate was substantially higher than it is now. So I would say at this point that fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I think it's very important that we have reduced the odds that a systemically important firm could fail by requiring higher capital, higher liquidity, by performing stress tests that provide is another way of insuring that the firms we count on to supply credit to households and businesses would be able to go on doing that even in the face of a severely adverse shock.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I would say that fiscal stimulus is not obviously needed to get us back to full employment - but I'm not giving advice to the new administration.feedback

Nicolas Forest

Janet Yellen is in a corner for the December meeting. She has to hike interest rates but the dollar is strong, so she has to decide between a dovish and a hawkish hike.feedback

Michael Hewson - CMC Markets

Last year the Fed guided the markets to expect at least four rate rises this year, guidance that proved to be woefully wide of the mark, and it is likely that they won't want to make the same mistake again. That suggests that Fed chief Janet Yellen can expect some serious cross-examination of how the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) view not only the economy, but also President elect Donald Trump's plans for it.feedback

Jim Cramer

As of the end of September, Hess remains Elliott's third largest position, and they're Hess's second largest shareholder, but to use less diplomatic language, this investment has been disastrous.feedback

Tom Jorden - Cimarex Energy Company

What we're hoping for out of the federal government are compliance partners to work with us and not just enforcing these regulations. We can live with whatever regulatory environment that the U.S. wants to establish, [and] we're going to comply fully, but some of these regulations are horribly complex and we look forward to a compliance partner out of the federal government.feedback

Jim Cramer

With all of the money pouring from bonds into stocks, I'm not sure if that source of funds argument is as central as I initially thought.feedback

Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

Although the Fed will likely add restrictive measures for only the second time in a decade, the announcement arguably has far less uncertainty surrounding it than usual. Janet Yellen and her colleagues have unambiguously signaled a desire to pull the trigger at its next gathering and will surprise no one by doing so.feedback

Ned Naylor-Leyland

Right now, people are expecting, for some reason, more rate hikes than inflation even though (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen has explicitly said that the pace of rate hikes will undershoot inflation.feedback

Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

Janet Yellen will add restrictive measures in December and has an unambiguous intention to do so on two separated occasions in 2017. However, her pace toward normalization still trails that for expectations for inflation which will allow the yield curve to steepen further to encourage financial institutions to lend to both businesses and individuals.feedback

Jim Paulsen - Wells Fargo Asset Management

One thing that's been AWOL the entire recovery ... has been animal spirit behaviors, and I think that has a lot to do with lack of confidence in the future, and that has a lot to do with the deflationary abyss. That could be coupled with some behaviors that we just haven't seen that could really bring a good feel to the whole thing for a while.feedback

Alan Rechtschaffen - UBS Wealth Management

The No. 1 tool the Fed has always had is to manage inflation expectations. If they can do that in a way that tempers the enthusiasm somewhat, the president can accomplish many of his goals of funding a fiscal program – a balancing act that could be extremely successful.feedback

Alan Rechtschaffen - UBS Wealth Management

What would be extremely helpful to the economy as a whole would be for the Fed to recognize the fiscal approach of the new administration and be able to foster that. Janet Yellen's speech where she talks about a high-pressure economy gives us an indication or a window into her desire to do that.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

If you have an economy that's being reflated but productivity hasn't picked up, then all of the stimulus that comes from the fiscal side is negated by rates moving higher. What you want to see is real growth. You want to see productivity picking up, because that's the basis of growth.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

The dollar rally has taken to another level on the back of the US durable good data which was really stunning and mind blowing. The economy is strong and the data is telling you that clearly. The question is how much attention the Fed is going to pay in relation to their future path of interest rate hike. Under the current situation, we expect the Fed to remain very hawkish during the first quarter of 2017.feedback

Kaneo Ogino

The economic figures were better than expected, which also pushed up chances of an interest rate hike next month, to nearly 100 percent, with more hikes possible after that.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

You get the minutes at 2 o'clock for whoever is left. They made it pretty clear in November that we were close to a hike, and I think [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen sealed the deal when she went before the [Joint Economic Committee] saying the election didn't have an impact on the outlook.feedback

Mark Hamrick

If you come at it from a common sense approach, there is a proverbial low-hanging fruit at the top of that list. Everybody from (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen on down has said there is a concern that those smaller financial companies have had a difficult time competing in the wake of the new law's enactment.feedback

Dawn Fitzpatrick - UBS

I really hope Trump doesn't politicize the Federal Reserve. I think Yellen is doing actually a very good job.feedback

Vinod Nair - Geojit BNP Paribas

There is a major liquidity issue in the domestic market due to the banknotes action and the volatility in the rupee because of rising U.S. bond yields will likely continue for some time. The 8,000 level for Nifty is very important, but the risk of it falling below that mark will be there as the market will continue to remain cautious for a while amid domestic and global uncertainties.feedback

Sue Trinh - RBC Capital Markets

It's the same theme, which is continued backing up of U.S. yields as the market reprices the prospects of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Those who were non-believers of a December hike have now moved into that camp, us included.feedback

Michael Feroli

Yellen's testimony before Congress . . . further cemented in place expectations that the Fed will hike rates next month.feedback

Tapas Strickland

The boost to equities and to the U.S. dollar continued overnight, driven by comments from U.S. Fed Chair (Janet) Yellen and supported by strong U.S. economic data.feedback

Luke Bartholomew - Aberdeen Asset Management

Yellen is saying it's full steam ahead for a Fed hike in December. The big question is what happens after that. Trump's election has given investors plenty of reason to question the lower for longer mantra.feedback

Kaneo Ogino

Everybody wants to buy the dollar on dips, and is waiting for dips, but there is no dip. The Trump rally can continue, unless some cautious comments come out from the U.S. side.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

When there is greater clarity about the economic policies that might be put into effect the (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to factor those assessments of their impact on employment and inflation and perhaps adjust our outlook.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The progress in the labour market has continued and economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. And inflation, while still below the Committee's 2.0 percent objective, has increased somewhat since earlier this year.feedback

Erik Wytenus - JP Morgan Private Bank

A December rate hike is priced in. A number of Fed speakers have indicated that and they want the market to be prepared for when they do. The Fed, though, is sensitive to the strength of the dollar and they don't want to hike too far too quickly.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

The appropriate path for the federal funds rate will change in response to changes to the outlook.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

I would not want to see the clock turned back on all the improvements we have made.feedback

Chris Beauchamp

With chances of a rate hike now at 94 per cent for December, there is a risk that the Fed's leader could spark a bout of dollar weakness if she so much as hints at the possibility that the central bank won't move in December. Thus, currencies like the yen and the euro, which have fallen hard over the past few days against the U.S. dollar, could be due a decent bounce, with worrying consequences for equity markets in those countries.feedback

Per Hammarlund

(Yellen) has been quite consistent on her message that the U.S. needs to hike rates gradually. She may hold out the possibility of future change, depending on the program of the next government - because it is still so uncertain what he will actually get through Congress. It depends how well he spends his political capital.feedback

Nicholas Hyett - Hargreaves Lansdown

The decline is in line with company expectations but it's still painful.feedback

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Despite the remarkable sell-off in the U.S. bond markets and the rising inflation expectations, Janet Yellen is expected to sound cautious and to refrain from giving too much credit to recent turbulences in the financial markets. This is the major downside risk in the U.S. and global equity markets today.feedback

Greg Valliere

I would think given the opportunity, she would try to steer people away from any legislation that would curb the Fed's authority. I think the House is going to move on something next year, at least an audit.feedback

Scott Redler

Typically when you hit the tightest range bar, you get some expansion. The question is which way does it break. It still looks like it's going to be higher. If the S&P goes above 2,181 and holds, we should be seeing new highs by the weekend. If it doesn't hold, and we trade back to 2171, new highs might be more toward Santa Claus rather than Thanksgiving.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

I'd like to hear a clear signal that we're going to get a rate hike in December and the outlook. But things are going to be so politically charged that it's hard to know if we're going to get any useful information out of it. I think Republicans will be galvanized by the win and the fact they are at the helm now.feedback

Daniel Clifton

I think it's going to be a lot of battling. … Donald Trump wins the election and all of a sudden interest rates start to go higher, and people think the economy is going to get better. …The market is starting to like this and she's going to be caught up in questions about why this is happening.feedback

Daniel Clifton

You're going to hear a lot about infrastructure spending. You're going to hear a lot about tax reform. This is the first debate we're going to have on public policy for 2017.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

Meanwhile, the Democrats are going to try to be picking apart Trump's economic plan just because this is the forum to do that.feedback

Greg Valliere

She's not going to encourage that kind of speculation. She knows she has 15 months to go.feedback

Greg Valliere

I think the real concern is whether Trump aligns himself with people who want to curb the Fed's authority. If there's one appointment that would send a chill through the Fed it would be Jeb Hensarling, and I think that would send an alarm through the Federal Reserve and maybe be viewed by concern in the financial markets.feedback

Thomas Simons - Jefferies

At 8:30 [a.m.], you get CPI, housing starts, Philly Fed and claims. All of that is 30 minutes after we get the text of Yellen's speech too.feedback

Margaret Yang - CMC Markets

The greatest uncertainties, namely the election and the Fed rate hike, were significantly reduced over the last two weeks, which gave the market a good reason to refocus on the fundamentals of economic and corporate earnings.feedback

Louis Gargour - LNG Capital

I have been long the dollar against the euro for three days. $1.05 is not out of the question. Will I be in the trade that long (until Trump's inauguration), maybe not. Let's look at the cabinet, let's look at who he puts in place and whether his policy will be as good (for the dollar) as people expect.feedback

Valentin Marinov - Crédit Agricole

All eyes are on Yellen today. She may not share markets' enthusiasm about the future impact of Trump's policies. And she could express concern about the dollar's rapid gains and the tightening of conditions through higher bond yields. That could spur some profit-taking on the bullish dollar positions.feedback

Shinichiro Kadota - Barclays

Rises in U.S. yields have been a significant factor behind the dollar's strength, but since that has started to calm down for now, moves in the dollar against yen have also settled down.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

The December interest rate hike is very much a done deal now and what matter the most for us is to listen to the Fed statement carefully (in December) as this will provide enough clues for future interest rate hike trajectory.feedback

Mark Cabana - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

We do think all of this means the Fed will likely have to be more active. We are going to hear from Chair (Janet) Yellen this week. She is likely to reiterate a December hike is on the table, and any type of fiscal stimulus will be well received.feedback

Stanley Fischer - Federal Reserve System

On more expansionary fiscal policy, I think many members of Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Board have commented that it would be useful to have a more expansionary fiscal policy. These statements were made over several months recently. I'm on record with that as having believed that.feedback

David Wessel

The only reason Yellen would quit is if (Trump) put people on the board she found offensive. Or she was being outvoted.feedback

David Wessel

In my experience, there are not many people who get elected president who press the Fed to raise interest rates.feedback

James Pethokoukis

I think it's plausible that she would find this an intolerable situation where she not only doesn't have the confidence of the president, but that he thinks she's undermined the credibility and independence of the Fed.feedback

George Saravelos - Deutsche Bank

It is reasonable to assume that the Fed may put December rate hike preparations on hold until more clarity is reached on the data, but even more importantly the market will be looking for confirmation that Chair Yellen will not resign. Trump has been particularly critical of her term so policy continuity will be particularly important.feedback

Carlo Messina - Intesa Sanpaolo

The main point is that this stops uncertainty so now we have a president and we have to deal with the situation and in reality U.S. is a country of big institutional investors, big pension funds. At the end, from a macro point of view, you can have a devaluation of the dollar and the postponement of the U.S. interest rate hike from Federal Reserve.feedback

Paul Ashworth - Capital Economics

Given the adverse market reaction we have already seen, the Fed's planned December rate hike is now off the table. There is a possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen and even some other Fed Governors (Lael Brainard??) will resign immediately.feedback

Ward McCarthy - Jefferies

It would have been bad for (Fed Chair) Janet Yellen if you had two consecutive meetings with three dissents. It looks like there was probably some kind of agreement on the language and he backed away.feedback

Diane Swonk

Yellen wants to run a high-pressure economy by overshooting inflation and pushing the unemployment rate lower. She wants to hedge against another recession.feedback

Lewis Alexander - Treasury

They will probably want to do something like have [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen give some relatively high-profile speech a couple weeks before the [December] meeting. That's probably a better way than putting something in the statement that inevitably is going to be pretty cryptic.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

It is difficult to compare Mario Draghi with Janet Yellen, Carney or Kuroda because he is in charge of a lot of countries. He has to face the music from Germany, France with respect to his policies – the two countries which have made the most noise.feedback

Donald Luskin - Trend Macrolytics

It's hilarious that Yellen thinks, at this point, she has the power to wave a magic wand and 'run a high-pressure economy.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

The Fed is going to have to move. They painted themselves into a corner so they've been looking excuses all year long: Chinese equity markets at the beginning of the year, Brexit, U.S. elections. At this point in time, they are not going to go in November, but Janet Yellen is going to have to pull the trigger in December.feedback

Jim Paulsen - Wells Fargo Asset Management

I've heard similar thought, that maybe this is all posturing by Yellen and a few others that don't want to be forced to move too fast or too aggressively to tighten.feedback

Diane Swonk

If they do put it in, I think it would reduce the number of dissents. I don't think Janet Yellen minds having a pretty big showdown, even with her own vice chairman.feedback

Stanley Fischer - Federal Reserve System

The limitation on monetary policy imposed by low trend interest rates could therefore lead to longer and deeper recessions when the economy is hit by negative shocks.feedback

David Mericle - Goldman Sachs Group

Fed officials who believe that there is a clear trade-off between running a high-pressure economy and the expected duration of the expansion are unlikely to be persuaded by these benefits.feedback

Doug Roberts

Despite the fact that rates were not raised at the September FOMC meeting as we predicted, the truce at Federal Reserve has never been more tenuous and appears to be on the verge of an outright civil war. The truce between hawks and doves is now being renegotiated.feedback

Doug Roberts

At this point there is a civil war, and the consensus is, the hawks are saying 'We'll allow you to raise rates very slowly, we just want you to start raising rates'. What the new (consensus) will look like is being renegotiated. ... That, to me, is going to act as an overhang for the market.feedback

David Mericle - Goldman Sachs Group

[I]t is hard to have great confidence in the productivity benefits of a high-pressure economy.feedback

Jeffrey Gundlach

It seems to me that Janet Yellen doesn't really want to raise rates, at least not very much.feedback

Masahiro Ichikawa - Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management

Yellen's remarks are likely to lift Japanese bond yields too, which should support financial shares. The Nikkei is likely to be supported by a weak yen as well on the whole.feedback

David Keeble - Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank

Maybe she is preparing for a December rate hike, but she doesn't want the market to run ahead of her ... She doesn't mind more inflation that's why the U.S. yield curve is steepening.feedback

Lou Brien

China giveth and China taketh away. This being the Halloween season, the markets are almost looking for something to spook them.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

Increased business sales would almost certainly raise the productive capacity of the economy by encouraging additional capital spending. In addition, a tight labor market might draw in potential workers who would otherwise sit on the sidelines and encourage job-to-job transitions that could also lead to more efficient – and, hence, more productive – job matches.feedback

Christian Lenk - DZ Bank

I think markets are trying to find a new equilibrium, and the 5 basis point yield (for German 10-year Bunds) is the point at which the sell-off seems to consolidate.feedback

Christian Lenk - DZ Bank

There is a bit of nervousness ahead of Yellen's speech, and with the European Central Bank meeting next week. An increasing number of Fed members are pushing for a December hike, but there always remains the uncertainty of 'data dependency', so Yellen's speech today will be watched to see which way she is leaning.feedback

Peter Boockvar - The Lindsey Group

The minutes told us nothing. We came out of the last meeting and, in the press conference, Yellen said the case for a rate hike had strengthened. Nothing seems to have changed that based on a lot of the speeches. We know it was a close call based on three dissenters, and the minutes basically confirmed that.feedback

Jeffrey Gundlach

I didn't hear, We are going to tighten in December. I think she is concerned about the trend of economic growth. GDP is not doing what they want.feedback

Jeffrey Gundlach

Inflation can go to 3 percent, if the Fed thinks this is temporary. Yellen is thinking independently and willing to act on what she thinks.feedback

Jeffrey Gundlach

I'm still defensive but one notch less than maximum negative on Treasuries.feedback

Jeffrey Gundlach

GDP Now keeps fading away. If we get only 1.9 percent GDP for third - and fourth quarters - we are looking at only 1.5 percent GDP this year.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

If strong economic conditions can partially reverse supply-side damage after it has occurred, then policymakers may want to aim at being more accommodative during recoveries than would be called for under the traditional view that supply is largely independent of demand.feedback

Janet L. Yellen - Federal Reserve System

This post-crisis experience suggests that changes in aggregate demand may have an appreciable, persistent effect on aggregate supply - that is, on potential output.feedback

Masashi Murata - Brown Brothers Harriman

Expectations of a Fed hike this year or next year aren't enough of an incentive to buy the dollar far above these levels. It's kind of like a tug-of-war, so the current level around 104 might be the highest level today, and some market participants might try to sell the dollar against the yen ahead of the retail sales.feedback