Last quote about Italian elections
All quotes about Italian elections
There's no doubt that in certain moments it is best to consult voters. But to call voters to an early election is a very serious choice.
There must be clear and effective voting rules so that electors can express, with efficacy, their will and find it applied in an elected parliament … Today, these rules do not exist.
The jobs act was an important reform insofar as it helped to shift people from precarious to full-time employment.
Since the referendum constitutes a risk for the PD (Democratic Party, led by Matteo Renzi), I suspect that Renzi will ensure that elections are held this Spring before such a referendum can take place. That will push the referendum off the agenda until – I believe – 2018.
It seems to me that the prevailing attitude is to go to elections soon, before any referendum on the Jobs Act.
The country was occupied by foreign countries for long periods, so the people had to adapt to each new situation. That plays some part, too.
You can give a lot of seats to a party but the problem is a day after they don't follow the [party] line and they are prone to rebellion. Also, the fact the state and republic is relatively young there's no sense of stability and belonging to the state, for a lot of different reasons.
The markets appear to be taking the developments in the banking sector quite positively and the cabinet chosen by Gentiloni has reassured investors.
The aim is to guarantee stability, especially internationally and regarding Italy's banking system. Operationally, the main aim is to approve a new election law that will lead to fresh elections.
We need to recognise our errors and radically change course, and the PD needs to do it with a courage that sadly has been lacking up until now.
The next elections, presumably in June, will be held with a proportional voting system.
During the negotiations, we noted the reluctance of the opposition parties to share the responsibilities of the new government. Therefore, we are not doing this by choice, but rather because we have the duty to do it. And so, we will proceed with the government and the current majority.
It's up to the PD to express and sustain a government for the remaining part of the legislature, which has to be as short as possible.
In the coming hours I will evaluate what has emerged from these discussions and will take the necessary initiatives for the solution of the government crisis.
It is important to end this government crisis quickly, because of the urgent pressures we face.
The event overnight will not change our strategy and we plan for the long term.
There is a monstrous hangover on Italian banks looking to raise capital, including UniCredit.
So if other political forces want new elections, once the Constitutional Court has made its ruling on the electoral law, they should say so clearly because here we all have to be responsible.
Budget law approved. At 7 p.m. formal resignation. A thank-you to everybody. Long live Italy.
Two big political events have passed without calamity. The market is starting to digest the terrible level of politics in Europe and the focus has turned back to the economy. European equities are cheaper than U.S. stocks on valuation grounds and dividend yields are more attractive. It seems a geographical rotation is taking place now.
Despite the fact that the probability of early elections has risen, the market is focusing on the banking sector and the fact the government seems to be showing more urgency in dealing with that problem.
I will bet all my political life on it.
As regards the current banking situation in Italy, we are in close contact with the Italian authorities.
We think that any government or the Italian government, likewise the European authorities will be absolutely mad to let the Italian banks go to the wall just because the hell it could unleash on the European banking sector.
The genie had escaped and it was impossible to put it back in the bottle.
If Monte dei Paschi's plan fails, then that spells bad news for the other Italian banks that need recapitalizing. If Italy can't sort out its banks, then they will be in a real mess. Once again Europe finds itself in a position where politics, the ECB, and the banks are dangerously entwined.
The statement highlighted a mixed economy with caution around labour, growth and inflation.
The euro has bounced due to a short-squeeze, but this doesn't mean that it has entered a rising trend. I think it's reasonable to stay with the view that it will eventually head lower, to levels below $1.05.
Global risk sentiment roared back after falling prey to the initial (Italian Prime Minster) Renzi fallout and whatever negatives Italy creates for the eurozone, yesterday (Monday) was not the time for a euro implosion.
I am increasingly convinced that creating a government after this government is very difficult, that this legislature is coming to its conclusion.
There are commitments and deadlines which the institutions need to respect, to guarantee answers consistent with the problems of the moment.
If I had to bet a euro I would say that we will go to vote not in the spring but in the winter, in February 2017.
The referendum outcome makes the recapitalisation of Monte dei Paschi harder to achieve, with potential negative knock-on effects on the rest of the system and in particular on UniCredit's equity raising plans.
It doesn't take a lot for the Dow to be at an all-time peak anymore. Another half a percent climb has seen the index break 19250 for the first time, continuing its astonishing post-election rise.
The currency market was really the only market that was open at that time, so the euro bore the brunt of the news of the referendum not passing.
My government’s experience ends here. I believe that in order to change this political system, in which leaders remain the same and switch different positions, but don’t change the country, we cannot pretend for an umpteenth time that everything remains as before. They don’t change their habits and they will never leave their seats. I wanted to cut extra seats, but I didn’t succeed. Therefore, it is my seat which is becoming vacant.
When a prime minister who will always be remembered for taking office through an old-style party coup calls a national referendum in a country that's still struggling to emerge from a triple-dip recession, he can expect an unfavourable result.
Our base scenario is a caretaker (Italian) government which could be in place before Christmas, and no new elections before 2018.
Italy is systemically important, the Eurozone cannot survive without Italy, there's no speculation about that.
I wasn't able to win, I beg you to believe I did everything I thought was possible at this stage.
These restructurings are likely to be followed, or accelerated in parallel, by a long overdue consolidation of the Italian banking system through mergers and acquisitions of small and mid-sized banks.
It has to be feared that reform activity in Italy will now slow down again. And that would be an ominous development not just for Italy.
I hope things get better. Until now they have ruined us, with the Fornero Law (pension reforms). It's been terrible, especially for our young people it's been a disaster. Let's hope things get better.
I voted 'No'. So let's see what the situation is. At the moment it seems very confused. I don't see an alternative from a political point of view. I don't know what scenario awaits us. I'm a bit sceptical. There are few positive prospects at the moment.
The profile of M5S activists and supporters casts doubt on whether it would be able to govern effectively. A vote for the M5S is a straightforward protest vote.
The electoral law might not survive in its current form. If Renzi loses, then the electoral law will have to be revised and the prospect of an M5S majority government will retreat accordingly. For the law's operability depends on the constitutional reforms being passed and it is opposed by powerful groups from across the political spectrum.
Today the caste (elites) in power lost.
This won't push Italy back into crisis for now. But it means lost time for a country that faces huge problems with its banks, its enormous public debt levels and high unemployment. There is a significant danger that the reform course will now slow.
This vote looks to me to be more about the euro than constitutional change.
The French election will be the crucial test for Europe. To counter Le Pen, Fillon may have to move to the center. He will have to put quite a bit of water in his traditionalist wine.
Now I say that we need to vote as soon as possible.
Real change only happens through electoral victory.
The risks of a new political instability for economic development, the financial markets and the currency union are increasing further.
There is no reason to talk of a euro crisis and there is certainly no reason to conjure one up.
[Investors] are now drawing back, they think the situation is too volatile both in Italy and in the European Union. It's going to be very difficult to do a raise of capital for Monte Paschi and the regional investment banks, and I think then what happens is Italy is going to be at loggerheads with the European Union and European Central Bank.
We don't want to see a delay in the recapitalization [program] for Italian banks. If there is a delay, we could see more pressure on the euro.
Populism is not inevitable. The extreme right is not irresistible.
Renzi thought he could tackle (the rise of anti-establishment sentiment) by making it about him; we see now that was a radical big mistake for him and now he's paying the ultimate price by having to resign much like David Cameron last June when they try to leverage that personal popular support for him on a wider canvas and ultimately it just simply failed, Squawk Box.
If you take a look at the political environment in Italy, Renzi's center-left Democratic Party is probably the only mainstream party that still supports the EU and the euro zone.
Just the premise alone of a referendum on euro zone membership would create a major crisis.
We know that the referendum was technically on constitutional reforms but the Italian government linked the vote to its own political future.
I am sad that the referendum in Italy did not turn out as the prime minister wished because I always supported his reform policies, but it is of course a domestic Italian decision that we must respect.
We want to go to the ballot box soon.
The ball's in President Sergio Mattarella's court. As far as we go, never, never would a second mandate to Renzi [be acceptable].
I think the euro is going to strengthen a lot now. I think it is way oversold. There's a view out there that the euro is going to blow up and I don't buy it. Ultimately, yes, we do think it will weaken in the longer term. But short-term I don't believe in this idea that there is an imminent blowup.
Whatever solution is found for Monte dei Paschi, I believe there is a significant risk of contagion to other Italian banks in particular.
From my point of view, we will continue our work in Europe and we have set the right priorities.
I lost and the post that gets eliminated is mine. The government's experience is over.
I'm very confident in the capacity of the eurozone to resist all kind of shocks. I think that we have now a very solid system.
We've had some big moves and we decided to reduce our short.
This is a crisis of government, not a crisis of state, and it's not the end of the West. But it's certainly not a positive contribution against the backdrop of the crisis in Europe.
The ECB has some space to step up purchases of Italian bonds, at least in the short run, as they have done in the past for Irish and Portuguese bonds. What Draghi says to the press on Thursday is also key. If he says something like 'the ECB is always ready to step in', or something like that, ... it could have added significance.
Our base scenario is ... a caretaker government that could be in place before Christmas, and no new elections before 2018.
Most market participants don't expect an early election. Even though Renzi has said he will resign, a new government is likely to be formed and that will lead to a bit more stability. People are conscious that the ECB is buying Italian bonds and, now that the Italian referendum is over, the focus turns to Thursday's ECB meeting.
Italy has to continue in a consistent manner on the path that Prime Minister Renzi has taken economically and politically over the past three years. Those responsible in Italy know that.
I think we should see the situation in Italy with a certain calmness. That is how democratic and constitutional processes work in the member states. The Italians have decided, that is to be respected. They will make the best of it. I think there is no need to talk about a euro crisis.
Initially, a phase of instability now lies ahead of us – how will one of the biggest countries in the European Union now stabilize itself? It is also a setback for those who want readiness for reform, those who want European countries to change. That is the only way we can deal with globalization.
It would be bad for the euro if the government crisis dragged on for a long time.
In my view the biggest risk is actually for the banking sector, even more so than political risk, and there will be some political instability.
The 'No's' have won in an extraordinary clear-cut way. I lost and the post that gets eliminated is mine.
We did a great job, thus the important thing is, if we must lose, we don't blame anybody. If the Italians choose something else, we'll respect it.
For example, if only 30 per cent of eligible voters turn out, the result will hardly be influential.
We didn't exit from Europe, but we didn't 'exit,' from the Constitution either.
Arrogance lost, from which we'll learn many things in forming our team for government and our platform. Starting tomorrow we'll be working on a government of the 5-Stars, we'll involve the energies and the free persons who want to participate.
We are ready to vote as soon as possible.
No' will win, everything will collapse so we might as well all go on holiday.
If 'Yes' wins, Italy will be the strongest country in Europe.
I believe that ... (if defeated) Renzi will go to the head of state and hand in his resignation.
It is not for us, it is not for a political party, it is for them.
If 'Yes' wins, Italy will become the leader of Europe.
Think of your future and the future of your children.
If a yes vote prevails, then we would assume (Prime Minister Matteo) Renzi stays in and he has a mandate to continue with his economic reform program. That would most likely be the best outcome from a credit standpoint. If the referendum is defeated by a very wide margin, and then snap elections are called, this raises the political uncertainty...We are concerned about investor sentiment in this environment.
The picture is not so clear cut. It is not like with a 'yes' vote the Euro lives, with a 'no' vote, the euro dies. It's a more complicated picture, what I certainly see is major problems for the euro in the future if Italy doesn't make the reforms that make its public debts sustainable.
Saying that there is a risk of an authoritarian regime in Italy where obviously the risk is of a bureaucracy, non-functioning, too slow process of legislation.
We made a mistake in personalising this reform. But I think we can still win this. Italians realise this is not about Renzi, but about how the country should be governed for years to come.
We got positive answers on all the questions on the table.
According to the 5SM, people won't be able to choose their own representatives in the parliament and this is the most important point.
(In the context of Europe), if Renzi wins then he may well become more confrontational and stretch EU deficit laws even further while pursuing a more expansionary monetary policy which could be interesting but if he loses … Well, it's anyone's guess.
Also, many of the rebellious young people who oppose Renzi may not bother to vote. Whereas the outcome is thus no foregone conclusion, I put the probability of a 'no' vote at 60 percent.
If the outcome is a win for the 'no' camp, which appears the most likely, then it is dependent on the margin of the victory. Any clear victory for the 'no' camp would mean an election is inevitable.
The result (of a 'yes' victory) would be a parliament full of bureaucrats chosen from their parties that, once elected, will just get to satisfy their leader instead of people's needs.
Some whispers suggest that more than half of the up to 20 percent of undecided voters may back Renzi in the end.
Around the corner there's Grillo, not Berlusconi.
Governing Italy has always been a difficult affair. Pushing reforms has been difficult.
The world is changing. We have to throw our 'No' back in their faces. This is not a political 'No', it is an existential 'No' and a social 'No' ... Our world is coming.
Sunday's referendum on constitutional reform is Italy's Brexit moment and a 'No' vote would send tremendous shockwaves through the markets and the banking system. It could also heap pressure on the euro.
To the financial markets we say that we have always received the message that structural reforms are the prime asset of Italy's future. I think that's something everybody has always said, everywhere. And we think that structural reforms is what the country needs.
Stability and reforms in my own country are crucial. And this is the reason why the approval of our constitutional reforms through the referendum is so important.
There are colossal short positions on Italy from the U.S. and other countries where big investors are based.
Italian stocks and government bonds are heavily correlated in Italy. They are basically seen as expressions of the same risk. We are seeing a correction right now. It seems financial markets are getting more relaxed about the idea of a 'No' in the referendum.
That government won't be able to do anything but electoral reform, so Italy won't get the structural reforms that it needs.
If you have a crisis in the Italian banking sector kicking off again, not only that could spread across Europe but also the solution that Renzi may come up with to just break the rules and bailout the banks, in which case he would be massively undermining (the) banking union, which is actually the only area where they made progress in Europe since the beginning of the crisis.
Investors may not be interested in participating anymore if you have all this political instability in Italy off the back of this referendum.
Renzi is not obligated to step down, but has said he intends to if he loses, which has weighed on the euro.
We think that is somewhat overstated. It's making a series of assumptions. One is that Renzi resigns. Two is that you're giving up on any plans to help stabilize the banking system. And both of those are big assumptions.
With the Italian referendum, the French presidential election and the German general election, we are essentially attempting a political triple jump in Europe. Matteo Renzi will likely lose the referendum on the constitution, but we don't expect that to pave the way for an early election into the first half of next year.
I think that the Italian majority - maybe it will be a thin margin - but it will be a majority. They will not lose this opportunity. It's the first time that those things discussed for 30 years were decided by the parliament and the reform now has to be confirmed by a referendum.
We had a completely different economic and financial environment in Italy at this time.
But in the case they win, they win. This is democracy.
My personal opinion is that Renzi should stay. What needs to be considered ... is what is good for the country.
All those who are demanding a 'No' vote should support a government that prepares the way for elections. But that won't happen. They are going to create an almighty mess and expect us to clear it up.
Renzi can't serve as a safety car.
Italy is an essential part of Europe, should we lose it as Europe's architect, inspirer and artisan, it would not be the same.
I don't know whether I would be useful to Renzi saying I would like to see 'Yes' win, I just say I would not like to see 'No' prevailing (in the referendum). Italy is a great nation and Renzi has contributed to this, we have to admit this.
At the moment, the management of this situation has been flawless, especially with citizens taking part.
But its value lies in its recognition of the willingness of the country to change. It is time to stand behind the prime minister on this.
Italy is a country that deserves better.
I think it is completely unnecessary for Italy to risk that exposure.
If Renzi suffers a big loss, he can't continue easily. A 60-40 vote means Renzi will likely resign, and then it will depend on the parliament to figure out what to do next.
I'm quite positive and quite optimistic because whatever happens, in the end, the reforms will be made. The reforms have to be made, so they will be made … My view is that politics slows down or accelerates reforms but at some point they will have to be made.
We need stability in Italy because we need to continue the reforms that have been started by this government.
The market is reacting to the better political environment and, bar the Italian referendum which will probably be another source of concern, there is a sigh of relief that the year's turbulent and somewhat surprising politics are behind us.
The prospect of a Fillon presidency clearly is welcome in Berlin. If Le Pen loses and Renzi survives, Merkel will have a chance to shape European responses to Brexit, the refugee situation, the problems with the euro and Russia.
This government was born to make constitutional reforms, as you remember. We've made them and it's up to the citizens to decide if they are good or not. But our mission was to give Italy a reboot, it is stronger than before but still not as much as we would like, and the approval of the constitutional reforms which, as you know, is now in the hands of the people sovereign.
There's a clear acceleration for 'No' and the Trump factor seems to have tipped the balance among many who were undecided.
Nearly all the undecided voters would have to vote 'Yes' for Renzi to recover, and that is certainly not the trend that we are seeing.
Trump's victory was important because Renzi strongly backed Hillary Clinton and so people link him with the loser and the mainstream establishment that Clinton was seen as representing.
It's all about disenchantment with Renzi because the economic crisis isn't finished and the lives of most Italians aren't improving. I don't think it has much to do with the constitutional reform itself.
It seems those who back the reform were the first to decide and now we are seeing the undecideds, who are mostly less interested in politics, moving towards 'No' because they want to get rid of Renzi. I think Renzi is going to lose.
It is clear that as things stand, the present law would have brought the 5-Star to power. By changing it, many different electoral outcomes will open up.
If no-one wins a clear majority, then the two (political) blocs will have to reach a (coalition) deal, as happens in Germany.
We are thinking in the long term ... but they will never accept our proposal. They will draw up an electoral law that is the most anti-5-Star they can come up with.
This shows people that we are different and don't do things purely out of self-interest, like the other parties.
His words were totally unacceptable.
The markets are afraid of Italy, and that has been behind the spread widening. Italian banks are one of the reasons and, of course, the fate of Renzi.
We have Renzi now saying he won't head up a technocratic government in the event he loses the vote so it's turned into a straight referendum on the prime minister and his government. It's going to be that much harder to fix Italian banks if he loses and it looks like it's going that way.
I'm not willing to take part in old-style political games. Either we change or I have no role to play.
I can't be someone who negotiates a deal with the other parties to create a little government or one with a limited goal (to change the electoral system).
If the aftermath of a 'no' victory results in an early election, in which parties propose a referendum of leaving the euro then this is much more of a problem, there will be serious contagion effects for the whole of the euro zone.
For me, this is the biggest political risk for the euro zone this year … Less the referendum and more the tail risk.
We give 20 billion to Europe and the EU gives us back 12, but if Hungary or Slovakia preach to us about migrants and don't give us a hand and when want our money, we will say 'there is no way, absolutel.
It's an extremely complex and delicate transaction, where the concrete risk is that current shareholders will be the most penalised.
It may be that a significant number of those in the south who say they are going to vote 'No' will end up staying at home.
2017 could be a difficult but also a wonderful year.
December 4 is their last chance to get back into the game. That is what this is all about.
We are at a fork in the road. The referendum pitches the past against the future, cynicism against hope, hope and ideals against nostalgia and yesterday.