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Last quote about OPEC

Shane Chanel
OPEC is desperate to bring the market into equilibrium and mop up as much of the excess stockpiles, which was caused as a result of the free for all production approach over the last few years. I am expecting OPEC and Russia to agree on a further 9-month extension to production cuts.feedback
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Oct 18 2017
Multiple people spoke about OPEC in the news. We gather all their quotes on this page, an easy way to see all views about this topic at a glance. To go deeper, all quotes are redirected to the article from which they come. John Kilduff is the person who had the greatest number of quotes. The most recent one of them is: “There are times like these when they'll push the envelope, especially when the envelope is getting stuffed with cash.”.
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All quotes about OPEC

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

At the same time, we've seen a number of strategic petroleum reserve releases that have added to supply that the market has easily absorbed.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

We urge our friends, in the shale basins of North America to take this shared responsibility with all seriousness it deserves, as one of the key lessons learned from the current unique supply-driven cycle. At the moment we (OPEC and independent US producers) both agreed that we have a shared responsibility in maintaining stability because they are also not insulated from the impact of this downturn. The call by independents themselves (is) that we need to continue this interaction.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

The speed and pace (of destocking) has accelerated as a result of anticipated and projected demand growth in the second half of 2017 to the tune of 2 million bpd. We are witnessing a fast return to a balanced market.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

Demand-supply is returning to rebalance through massive destocking that we have been witnessing of stocks in OECD across regions in a very massive way. In the past four months alone, we have seen destocking to the tune of 130 million bpd.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

There is clear evidence that the market is rebalancing. The process of global destocking continues, both onshore and offshore, with positive developments in recent months showing not only a quickening of the process but a massive drainage of oil tanks across all regions.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

Just a mere 25 million barrels are products, almost converging with the five year average.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

It is a big market and demand is very strong. Between the first half and second half this year, demand growth is almost about 2 million barrels (per day), which is very robust. So everybody has a role to play.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

Crude in floating storage is down by an estimated 40 million barrels since the start of the year with help of a narrowing contango since June and then Brent flipping into a clear backwardation from the second week of September. This trend will obviously make it unprofitable to continue to store crude. We have recently seen a deceleration in U.S. tight oil growth compared to the first half of the year, evidenced recently by falling productivity of wells particularly in the Permian basin as well as growing concerns from the investment community.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

Oil news is contradictory. OPEC and Russia are talking about extending production limits, but there's still plenty of supply with U.S. crude exports up sharply.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

Oil prices remain supported by ongoing supply restrictions from the OPEC and Russia, with the agreement likely to be extended ... Any weakness in oil prices are thus likely to be short-lived.feedback

Alexander Novak

We believe that perhaps for the first time in its history OPEC has succeeded in reaching a very high level of implementing an agreement, at a level of almost 100 percent. And that is an impressive figure, we are very pleased with this figure.feedback

Vladimir Putin

What we've done at OPEC serves the entire global economy well. We will look at the situation in late March. I think this is possible.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

Together with the Russian Federation and other countries, I can assure you that we are in the process of writing a completely new chapter in the history of oil. We would like to carry everyone on board on our way to Vienna on November 30, where we will take a collective decision; it will be a historic decision because it is on the anniversary of the first declaration of cooperation.feedback

Vladimir Putin

Everyone is interested in a stable market. What we did with OPEC, I believe, is beneficial for all the global economy. When we decide on whether to extend or not, we will decide on the timeframe. But on the whole, if speaking about a possible extension, this should be at least until the end of 2018.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

What I cannot rule out is the continuation of what is working. We started this mechanism in January and every month we continuously review the structure, the mechanism, the level of implementation and we have been in active consultation, not only within the GCC ( the Gulf Cooperation Council) but all other participating countries. They are satisfied, we are all satisfied that the structure, as well as the mechanism, is working. So I cannot rule out the current mechanism.feedback

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh

It depends on a collective decision and consensus within OPEC, but I think there is no objection against this proposal. Yes. I'm discussing.feedback

Mark Watkins - U.S. Bank

Any time we get above 50 dollars a barrel drilling starts to ramp up, and that's going to bring the price of oil back down again. Tomorrow's report we'll have to look at that data.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

You've reached a place where the market needs a drumbeat of positive information to sustain a rally. The question is if demand and the supply cut are enough to offset the increase in (U.S.) production that's coming.feedback

James Williams

The big short-term risk is obviously the pipeline. So far Turkey hasn't closed the Kurdish pipeline.feedback

John Tjornehoj - CHS Hedging

We've seen them add rigs for the first time in seven weeks, so that changes sentiment as well. We've seen a run up in heating oil futures, and I think that particular product has supported the rise of WTI. As we reverse here lower we see the recent strong correlation continuing.feedback

Rick Meckler - LibertyView Capital Management

Investors are trying to get in front of earnings that are expected to be pretty good and there's still some optimism over corporate tax relief.feedback

Phillip Streible - R.J. O'Brien & Associates

Investors have really gained confidence in oil, after the OPEC cuts that were originally discussed earlier in the year are starting to take shape here, and oil production is being curbed.feedback

Adam Wise - John Hancock Financial

We had a terrific run up in the past week. I think the market is still processing what's happened in terms of supply and demand dynamics from hurricanes and a lot of noise from OPEC. I think it's taking a little bit of a breather.feedback

Spencer Welch

But there is no denying that supply cuts are finally having some effect and the oil market has the highest level of optimism in three years.feedback

Jodie Gunzberg

I think Hurricane Harvey really gave (oil) a boost, it was a catalyst for some of the disruptions in the refineries. We are seeing real rebalancing in the oil market. When we look at the index data, we can see the price could move even as high as $80 to $85 (a barrel). Not immediately, but with their structural backwardation and shortages in the market, you just can't replenish it overnight. We have seen some structural backwardation where there are shortages and once there are shortages it's really hard to replenish.feedback

Jodie Gunzberg

Whether we can ramp up quick enough, that's a big question. Probably not so fast.feedback

Jodie Gunzberg

It is now in a bull market, Brent is up about 30 percent since June and we also had WTI up 23 percent.feedback

Spencer Welch

The third quarter, which has highest demand, always makes oil market look healthiest. Lower demand in fourth and first quarters is still a risk, and some price weakness may return.feedback

Ben van Beurden - Royal Dutch Shell

It's a mix of OPEC, it's shales, it's large complex projects and they each have their own dynamic in terms of response time to prices ... And on top of it, there's a lot of sentiment that is feeding the markets.feedback

Robert Campbell - Energy Aspects

This is a products-led rally ... Even prior to Harvey, products were driving the (price) rally and were incentivising high refinery runs ... What Harvey did is accelerate a process that was already underway.feedback

Matti Lehmus

The big surprise ... has been on the distillate side, where it looks like we will hit 1.6 percent growth.feedback

Nadia Martin Wiggen - Rystad Energy

If OPEC does not extend their cuts beyond 1Q 18, we would no longer see stock draws from 2Q 18 and we forecast builds from 3Q 18.feedback

Janet Kong - BP

Global demand growth is way higher than what we have observed in the last couple of years, coming somewhere close to 1.6 to 1.7 million barrels per day and is driven by distillates. Two to three years ago, we were talking about the end of the industrialization cycle in the emerging market and as a result gasoline demand growth would drive the barrels rather than distillate, but 2017 is different.feedback

Franco Magnani - Eni Trading & Shipping

There are forecasts that demand could pass the threshold of 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and liquids even in the next months or next year. Demand and supply is slowly aligning. Most of the economies in the world are still growing or relatively stable. The region where we come from, Europe, after years of trouble, apparently is starting to digest the consequences of the crisis that we had 6 to 7 years ago.feedback

Peg Mackey - OPEC

We see slightly higher non-OPEC growth versus demand growth. In that situation, it's hard to imagine a dramatic decline in inventories next year.feedback

Tomomichi Akuta - Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting

The high compliance of producers in jointly curbing output as well as the news of (Turkey's response to) the referendum helped oil prices.feedback

Franco Magnani - Eni Trading & Shipping

There are forecasts that demand could pass the threshold of 100 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and liquids even in the next months or next year. Most of the economies in the world are still growing or relatively stable.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Even at these prices levels, they\'re still bleeding cash. So they want more money and I think the incentive to stay together starts to decrease.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

The market anticipates that OPEC and non-OPEC [exporters] are going to continue with their production cuts through 2018.feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

It's not profitable to grow at $50. They can [grow], but their investors don't want them to anymore.feedback

Matt Smith

We haven't really seen a number of OPEC [members] dialing back on their exports. For this momentum to be upset, it would have to come from the demand side.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

There are times like these when they'll push the envelope, especially when the envelope is getting stuffed with cash.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

Exempt members Libya and Nigeria may be bought into the fold of the production cut deal. There also remains the possibility that an extension of the agreement or an increase in the cuts may be announced.feedback

Khalid al-Falih

Exports have now become the key metric for financial markets.feedback

Mark Watkins - U.S. Bank

Over the next two to three weeks, the EIA inventory numbers will be rather sloppy because you have production disrupted, refineries going offline and online. That's why you have to look out further.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

A lot of what's going to drive oil markets is anticipating the U.S. (stocks). As showed by the Reuters poll, the range of expectations is quite wide ... a lot of volatility past the release is possible.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

Certain countries do need $60s for their policies. I don't know why they are actually included in the agreement. They sign up and keep pumping.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

We went from a situation pre-U.S. shale boom where we were talking about peak production, now we're talking about peak demand. For U.S. shale producers…when it's $45 no-one is really happy but you get to $50 and they're willing to hedge their production so there's a question of 'is this a cap on near-term prices'?feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

Is Saudi going to do more to make up for the states that are not honouring their commitment?feedback

Tamas Varga

If the Harvey impact was potentially and possibly short-term bullish for oil prices the same cannot be said about Irma. There is no refinery capacity in the region therefore the main concern lies in the hit of oil demand.feedback

Michele Della Vigna - Goldman Sachs Group

I think any sign of global instability overall should be supportive for the oil price.feedback

Tony Nunan - Mitsubishi

This hurricane has thrown a spanner in the works and rebalancing is delayed further than expected.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

Harvey's impact is in the process of going global, as buyers of U.S. crude and refined product now have to scramble to cover. Remember the U.S. was one source of diversification away from OPEC for Asian buyers.feedback

Rick Joswick - S&P Global

In previous storms, including Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, and Isaac, gasoline prices peaked within 2 weeks after landfall at a level 20-80 cents/gallon higher than before the storm hit. But prices always declined rapidly and were back to the same level or below pre-storm values within 2-4 weeks. PIRA's outlook is for gasoline prices to spike by a similar degree for the next week or so. After then, prices will decline, but more slowly than in prior outages due to the increased pull by regional importers which is much higher now than back during the prior storms.feedback

Cobus de Hart

But given the pressure the finances are under, it is hard to drive diversification.feedback

Jose B. de Vasconcelos

It is better to cut the level of production and make the price of oil rise instead of producing at the max level and selling at low prices.feedback

Jose B. de Vasconcelos

If we look at the reality today, that would be very difficult.feedback

Lukman Otunuga

Sentiment towards oil remains bearish amid oversupply fears and the possible threat of OPEC's supply cut deal falling apart.feedback

Essam al-Marzouq

At our next meeting at the end of November...the most important items will concern the fate of the agreement to extend or terminate the production cut.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

U.S. crude oil stocks have been falling consistently in recent weeks. If the downtrend in oil inventories is maintained, then a bullish case can be made for oil, especially given the ongoing supply restrictions from the OPEC and Russia. The closure of Libya's largest oil field due to a pipeline blockade may also lend prices some support in the short term.feedback

Stephen Kallir - Wood Mackenzie

Just those two projects are going to (add) over 200,000 barrels (per day).feedback

Chris Cox - National Rifle Association

Until we see things like Trans Mountain go ahead, there is really not a lot these producers can do to try and mitigate those structural headwinds.feedback

Mark Sadeghian - Fitch Ratings

As long as there is OPEC action targeting reducing heavy and medium sour crude to the Gulf Coast, that would be supportive of the price differential, but we have no control of what the OPEC does.feedback

Tamas Varga

The EIA data suggest the U.S. oil market is becoming more balanced, with crude inventories falling. But the big jump in production was the focus.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

The recent rise in drilling activity means more shale supply is coming on stream.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

People are taking a hard look at what the balance is. We had seen in the past few weeks that demand growth was robust, and this turned that on its head.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

Above all, it is the ongoing fundamental issue of excessive supply that is continuing to weigh on oil prices. On this front, not a lot has changed despite the OPEC and Russia efforts recently. While these producers have tried to limit their oil output, U.S. shale oil continues to rise.feedback

Neil Wilson - ETX Capital

This report raises fresh doubts about whether Opec's production curbs are working. As ever the question mark is over compliance, which has slipped to 86pc – not as good as before but not terrible for the cartel by any means – and we need to see whether this can be shored up, or if it's a signal that the deal is coming apart.feedback

Bjarne Schieldrop - SEB Bank

This is the march toward the flattening of the curve. The major event now going forward is the Middle East and Asian refineries rushing back into operation and consuming more crude, just as Saudi Arabia says it will cut September deliveries to Asia.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

It seems like the market wants to go higher, The market is searching for it, the question is will it get it.feedback

Bob Takai

Oil is stuck in a range of US$45-US$50 for WTI and a bit more for Brent for now. That said, U.S. shale production is slowing down a bit, looking at the rig count, as drillers cannot make money when WTI is under US$50, so a push higher above US$50 is possible.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

Assuming that nothing comes from OPEC/Non-OPEC's technical meeting in Abu Dhabi today, oils near term fate will most likely be determined by the official U.S. Department of Energy inventory data tomorrow evening Asia time.feedback

Chris Weafer - Eurasia Group

They may discuss what to do about Libya's rapid oil recovery, although I doubt we will hear much stated publicly about that.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

Five weeks of crude draws is lending some credence to the idea that the Opec cut is beginning to impact the market. The market needs continuing signs of improvement in the inventory picture to really drive the prices higher.feedback

Keith R. Phillips

I think OPEC had more success in stabilizing prices than people thought at the end of last year. They have done pretty well in holding back production, but that means production in the U.S. can now be pretty significant in terms of how it affects oil prices.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

The coup de grace came from the American Petroleum Institute's (API) Crude Inventory release late in the New York session ... bringing an end to the last few weeks' trend of falling supplies in storage. Traders stampeded for the door to lock in profits from the last eight days' bull-run.feedback

John Driscoll

It's still sheikhs versus shale. I would put an average price for [the third quarter] at just under $50. In the past year it's like Brent was following the U.S. speed limit: 55 max.feedback

Giovanni Staunovo - UBS

While a single data point is not a trend, it may confirm that the low prices seen in recent weeks are not sustainable for U.S. shale producers.feedback

Johannes Benigni - JBC Energy

We see Brent prices sustained at or slightly above $50 per barrel over the next few months. However, this hinges on compliance not only in terms of reported production figures but also in terms of actual arrivals at consumer hubs ... otherwise the credibility of the deal and outright oil prices will suffer.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

Since oil inventories are the barometer by which the oil market judges OPEC's success in rebalancing the market, a decline in stocks will be positive for market sentiment and the oil price, which on a WTI basis, stands a good chance to once again trade above $50.feedback

Daniel Yergin

The price range seems to be shifted downwards because of greater efficiencies, new supply and demand not being strong enough to pick up all that extra supply.feedback

John Driscoll

Any perception that there will be 'leakage' will take air out of the balloon.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

U.S. producers are not prepared or able to keep up production at any price. These developments have left OPEC with a window of opportunity. If successful, the price of Brent crude oil is likely to rally back towards $55 during the coming months before renewed weakness sets in as the focus turns to 2018 and the potential risk of additional barrels hitting the market if OPEC and Russia fail to extend the production cut deal beyond Q1 2018.feedback

Brian Gilvary - BP

Global demand is looking pretty strong, and prices will firm around the levels seen today.feedback

Michael Tran - RBC Capital Markets

So many tankers out there are looking for work it would not be surprising for somebody to get a sweetheart deal to take it to Asia.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

The simple truth is that OPEC and Russia have to contend with the fact that there is output growth elsewhere diluting their efforts at reducing supply. Nigeria, Libya and U.S. shale oil feature prominently as an offset to OPEC's efforts.feedback

Abhishek Kumar - Interfax

OPEC's compliance is expected to remain under pressure over the coming months as scepticism grows over the pace of market rebalancing, despite actions taken by the cartel and some non-OPEC countries.feedback

Giorgos Beleris - Thomson Reuters

OPEC was swift to reaffirm its commitment in the production deal after Ecuador's announcement. The group vowed to tackle low compliance among its members, although it remains unclear how. Saudi Arabia continues to lift most of the weight of the cuts.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

The longer prices remain low, the greater the risk is that some OPEC countries will no longer comply with the production cuts as strictly as they have been doing so far.feedback

Nicolas Maduro

We have stood strong during this global campaign and we have stood strong when dealing with the terrorist and criminal violence and here we are, a country at peace.feedback

Ignasius Jonan

This is all part of an effort to have a more open dialogue with our business partners.feedback

Ignasius Jonan

There is no option. It they don't, it's OK, but they cannot export.feedback

Ignasius Jonan

We would have to have a concession for not following cuts from time to time.feedback

Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui

We are optimistic about ... compliance from OPEC and non-OPEC countries and we look forward to ... gradual improvements toward market balance. Saudi Arabia and Gulf states (have) an excellent track record of compliance to OPEC decisions and together with Iraq carry most of the cut.feedback

Alexander Novak

I think that these countries should join other responsible oil producers and contribute to the market stabilisation initiative, as they reach a stable level of output. We believe that once oil output in Libya and Nigeria stabilises, there will be less uncertainty on the market as to their future moves.feedback

Mouhammed Choukeir

Oil is behaving in a very atypical way if you like and that's largely because people are not convinced that OPEC is going to be able to comply and shale producers are going to continue producing.feedback

Mouhammed Choukeir

Oil price has a life of its own…. You can see that since the beginning of the year clearly OPEC has tried its best to keep that oil price going higher and higher (but) it has failed to do so for a number of reasons.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

It may provide some clarity on the outlook for further rate hikes in light of recent poor inflation data, and investors are eager to know more about the timing of its balance sheet unwind, however, Yellen may again only offer crumbs with which we can ponder for the rest of the summer.feedback

Khalid al-Falih

We must acknowledge that the market has turned bearish with several key factors driving these sentiments. Some countries continue to lag [on compliance with cuts] which is a concern we must address head on. Exports have now become the key matrix to financial markets and we need to find a way to reconcile credible exports data with production data.feedback

Victor Shum - IHS

Various producers will try to comply, but I think compliance will slip versus what has happened in the first half of this year. It seems like OPEC really faces a mission impossible at this time, which is to try to tighten oil markets and to sustain oil prices.feedback

Robert McNally

I think the meeting revealed that there are some tensions starting to grow within the group.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

I think we're set up for a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' type of market. The only surprise to the market would be if the Saudis stood up and cut more. But there doesn't appear to be much appetite for further cuts.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

We are pretty sure that the rebalancing process may be going at a slower pace than earlier projected, but it is on course. It is bound to accelerate in the second half.feedback

Kaname Gokon - Okato Shoji

The committee may issue a statement on cooperation in production cuts, but output cuts by Libya and Nigeria would be next to impossible considering Libya was just re-emerging from the civil war, for example.feedback

Frank Schallenberger - Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg

I don't really think the meeting will result in further output cuts. And Libya and Nigeria won't bee too enthusiastic to cap their production.feedback

Sukrit Vijayakar

Market participants seem to be convinced that the supply glut is here to stay and that the market is unlikely to rebalance anytime soon.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

We're keying on everything ahead of the OPEC meeting; they can't add even a barrel right now.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

They cannot get out of this one very easily. It's either fast death, slow death or death by a thousand cuts. If they decide to break up the deal and increase production, it's a fast death. If they keep the deal as it is, it's a slow death. If they cut production and give away market share to U.S. shale, it's a death by a thousand cuts.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

There's been talk of a Saudi cut being thrown around. … I don't think it's very likely right now.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Clearly, OPEC has a lot of cracks. The cartel is certainly under a fair amount of pressure from members that feel they shouldn't be cutting production here. I think the meeting is going to be more routine than anything else. There will be some recommendations.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Ecuador wants to pull out, and then Iraq has been talking about increasing output by a half million barrels.feedback

Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui

We have seen healthy demand and a flattening of rig counts in the United States. This is the beginning of the third quarter and demand picks up in the third quarter and I hope the agreement will have a significant impact in the third and fourth quarter. The UAE is committed to its cut. We have seen some increase in production in some of the countries that were not part of the agreement because of their special stance.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

The report was squarely supportive with the across-the-board inventory declines.feedback

Daniel Gerber

OPEC-14 supply is expected to exceed 33 million bpd in July which represents an increase of 145,000 bpd over June, driven by higher supply in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria. July volumes represent an increase of more than 600,000 bpd over the first-half 2017 average.feedback

Essam al-Marzouq

We are in the first two weeks of the extension period. It is too early to say now what I will do in November.feedback

Elvira Nabiullina

Of course, I welcome all the normalization of monetary policy. I think monetary policy should be normal. We try to normalise our policy, but it's the opposite direction – we are now in the easing cycle – but other countries are in a different way.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

Over the past 15 weeks, U.S. oil inventories have fallen ... 13 times, and in most cases, the falls were more pronounced than expected. Yet, U.S. crude oil inventories still remain near the upper half of the average for this time of the year.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

The report was more good news for the oil industry as inventories declined across the board for crude and products by over 10 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are now nearly 5 per cent lower than this time last year. That is a reflection of good consumer demand.feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

Today's story was that the Saudis are merely considering further export cuts, but this hasn't materialized yet and what we do have hard data on shows that Nigerian and Libyan exports are up, in defiance of expectations.feedback

Mohammad Syed

The investment themes we set out at the beginning of the year have performed well, and we continue to see potential for growth in these areas. In the meantime we've added emerging market bonds to our portfolios and funds, to benefit from strengthening economies in the developing world. As ever there are risks on the horizon but uncertain times bring new opportunities into view.feedback

Abhishek Kumar - Interfax

U.S. crude output has maintained its upward trajectory despite oil prices remaining below $50 a barrel. This "poses serious questions on the effectiveness of the output cut deal agreed upon by OPEC and some non-OPEC countries.feedback

Carlos Perez

There's a need for funds for the fiscal treasury, hence we've taken the decision to gradually increase output. What Ecuador does or doesn't do has no major impact on OPEC output.feedback

Joseph McMonigle

Ecuador's exit from the Opec deal is like a rounding error due to its low production cut target. But Ecuador's exit combined with Kazakhstan's intended 'soft exit' from the deal undermine Opec market narrative and could potentially prompt others in the deal to look for the doors.feedback

Joseph McMonigle

Crude draws in the US now are critical to Opec's plan and can't come soon enough with production increases in Libya and continued expansion in US shale. Ecuador's decision just increases the pressure on Opec.feedback

Carlos Perez

Unfortunately, we are currently at a reduction of around 16,000 barrels per day. We are not meeting the quota imposed on us because of the obvious needs the country has. We need funds for the fiscal treasury and for that reason we've taken the decision to gradually increase production, although not to the country's full potential, because of OPEC's output restrictions and the ceiling that we have as a result. There is an unwritten agreement with OPEC to have some kind of flexibility regarding Ecuador's needs.feedback

Stacey Gilbert - Susquehanna

It really has to do with oil; once you get oil above $50 [per barrel], it's obviously a very different story. What I would say from the options perspective on the oil market, $40 to $50 seems to be the range we've obviously seen it trade there pretty tightly. The options seem to suggest that it will continue to trade in that type of range, which means that these stocks probably just continue to kind of hover around these lows where they are.feedback

Stacey Gilbert - Susquehanna

I think it's the contrarian way to go, so I actually like travelling a bit in XLE calls here. Technically, if there is any sort of rally in oil, I think that these names really have the potential to turn and really rip higher in a lot of ways. You could miss that rally.feedback

Elvira Nabiullina

We observed that the reaction of oil markets to this prolongation of the OPEC agreement is a bit different to what markets expected, and the oil price is a bit lower than many expected as a result of this OPEC agreement. We see many medium-term factors that are absolutely unclear about oil markets. That's why we think we should be conservative in our forecast of oil markets. We think these factors are so changeable that oil markets could stay quite volatile.feedback

Neil Beveridge

We are definitely seeing robust demand growth (in China), driven by low oil prices and growth in SUVs. The very strong import growth is partly being helped by declining domestic production.feedback

Erik Wemple

In addition to covering Russia, Russia, Russia and President Trump, CNN - an organization of nearly 4, 000 “news professionals” - finds the organizational wherewithal to provide some topical variety on CNN.com. “Look out, OPEC! U.S. to become top 10 oil exporter by 2020, ” says the headline on a Tuesday story by Ivana Kottasová on CNN.com. Based on data from PIRA Energy Group, the story says that exports of U.S. crude will increase fourfold from 2016 to 2020.feedback

Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu - OPEC

Hopefully, in the next two to three months we can see how predictable the production return has been and then can say we feel stabilized and need to make the corresponding cuts.feedback

Mohammad Barkindo - OPEC

We remain very optimistic ... (about) helping the market to rebalance itself. We are fully satisfied that member countries are maintaining a very high level of conformity.feedback

Lukman Otunuga

While further upside could be expected in the short term amid the speculations of a cut in U.S production, gains may be limited by the firm oversupply dynamics of the markets.feedback

Scott Shelton - Icap

That tells you demand globally is a lot stronger than people thought it was going to be and that is having a net positive effect on heating and gasoline prices.feedback

Michael Cohen

(U.S. producers) were able to add more volume in 2016 than they were in 2012 at half the price. So even though we expect some cost inflation over the course of this coming year, it won't be enough to limit them and to handicap them just because of the productivity gains and efficiency gains that they've been showing.feedback

Daniel Yergin

We still see U.S. shale continuing to grow and being an important part of the supply but I think this year you've got this really powerful rebound and it's baked in for the rest of the year.feedback

Alexander Novak

When the first agreement was signed for six months, people immediately started asking me, what's going to happen in six months? And then as soon as we extended it for another nine months everyone is interested in what will happen in nine months. It's an endless and eternal question.feedback

Alexander Novak

If necessary, we can extend the agreement. If necessary, we can increase the amounts that need to be reduced or on the contrary, we can move to reduce them.feedback

Lorenzo Simonelli - GE Oil & Gas

When you look at the energy requirements, the increasing population, we feel there's going to be a necessity from an oil and gas perspective as we go forward. LNG (Liquefied natural gas) continues to grow at 3 to 4 percent, oil continues to grow at about 1 percent, you've got natural gas growing at 2 percent, as you look long term that supply demand balance is going to be there. What we've got to focus on is making sure that we drive productivity through that value chain to let the investments go forward.feedback

Lorenzo Simonelli - GE Oil & Gas

Clearly we look at the price of oil, At the same time, it's only one of the data points we look at. What we're focused on right now is really driving the costs of synergy and revenue synergies.feedback

Lorenzo Simonelli - GE Oil & Gas

I think right now there's still a sense of optimism with regards to the direction of energy, there's optimism with regards to the aspect of tax and if we can get some of these reforms through, you'll actually see the economy continue to grow.feedback

Lorenzo Simonelli - GE Oil & Gas

We're still early on in the actual presidency. You've got a number of initiatives that have been started, you mentioned the energy policy, you've got tax reform, health care, we've got to see how those come through over the course of the next few months.feedback

Loh Chin Hua

We are watching carefully … As far as we are concerned, the bulk of it is done.feedback

Matt Smith

The stream of relentless supply continues. We've seen exports last month from OPEC much stronger than they were in April and May, seemingly indifferent to the OPEC production cut deal.feedback

Daniel Yergin

It looked like the world was making progress toward rebalancing, but (these) two things have really pushed out rebalancing.feedback

Herman Wang - S&P Global

There are plausible scenarios where you could see, perhaps not $120 a barrel, but an elevated oil price, say $70 to $80 on some of these geopolitical and some of the supply concerns. Venezuela certainly is a mess right now.feedback

Neil Dwane - Allianz Global Investors

Venezuela's 2 million barrels of oil a day could literally go any day. Mexico looks poor. Azerbaijan's in trouble. China's own production is collapsing rapidly.feedback

Spencer Welch

This plus the U.S. effect is neutralizing the impact of the supply cuts and keeping a firm lid on crude prices. This is a worry for the supply cutting coalition.feedback

Neil Dwane - Allianz Global Investors

One only has to have one mistake and the only thing you'll be talking about all morning is oil at $120.feedback

Spencer Welch

Libya and Nigeria were given a free pass when the deal started in Jan 2017 because civil unrest meant their production was significantly down on what they have historically achieved. Both were also given a free pass for the roll-over of the deal through to end 1Q 2018, it was always a big risk that either or both would find a way of increasing production.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

We're seeing some head scratching today. Following a sharp rally, which was mostly driven by short-covering, the failure of Brent to break back above US$50 earlier in the week has once again given sellers appetite for sending it lower.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

If they hedge production at the current price point, and now calendar prices for next year, are below $50, they are locking in a loss.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

The bottom line is if oil falls below $40 per barrel on average, which is why I don't see a lot of downside, we start to lose shale. In the context of OPEC not waging a price war, we need prices high enough to encourage some amount of shale drilling. If prices are $55, we think shale supply grows by 1.1 million barrels a day.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

I don't see a lot of downside below $40/$45 range. Maybe we get a little bit of a dip below but I just think the market is pretty oversupplied. Inventories are finally declining but the real issue is we need to have forward prices low enough to discourage shale. We need to see a slowdown in the fracking industry, and we just added 12 rigs which doesn't help at all.feedback

Daniel Yergin

We are seeing that people can operate in the $45 range when people thought it was going to be in the $50s, because people keep figuring out how to push down the cost.feedback

Daniel Yergin

It shows you there is so much supply, the focus is on the inventories, the focus is on how U.S. production keeps coming up, so something that in other circumstances would've sent shudders to the oil market doesn't happen.feedback

Daniel Yergin

Forget that world of $100 – that was not the new normal; that was an aberration.feedback

Sukrit Vijayakar

Prices have managed to recover ever so slightly after API released its inventory data which showed U.S. crude inventories falling.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

OPEC's ability to maintain exports should be tempered by the need to keep more oil at home to meet increased domestic demand during the peak summer months.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

The air is getting thin for oil prices. The price increase just ran out of steam, which is not very surprising, given the news flow of rising OPEC supplies.feedback

Kathy Bostjancic

The minutes from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting underscore that the start of the balance sheet reduction is on course for this year. On the interest rate front, we believe rising concerns that the slowdown in the inflation rate could be long-lasting will lead policymakers to forgo additional rate hikes this year and to only raise rates twice (total 50 basis points) in 2018.feedback

Yoshihiro Okumura

Investors were picking up cyclical stocks, particularly automakers as they have laggard behind the rises of the overall market.feedback

Phil Smith

The Italian services economy has seen its strongest quarterly performance for almost ten years in the three months to June, despite the upturn losing some momentum in the past couple of months. The latest survey data also confirmed the absence of any serious inflationary pressures, with prices charged for goods and services rising at the slowest rate for four months in June.feedback

Andrew Harker - Markit

The Spanish service sector ended the first half of 2017 with a flourish, with PMI data for June signalling the strongest increases in output and new orders for almost two years and employment growth picking up as well. Firms also took advantage of strong demand conditions to raise their selling prices and provide a welcome boost to profit margins. Companies see little reason to doubt the sustainability of the upturn at present, reflected in our business confidence data remaining around the highest seen over the past two years.feedback

Andrew Harker - Markit

Combining this release with Monday's manufacturing PMI, the data suggest output rose more quickly in the second quarter of the year than in the first, boding well for the Q2 GDP outturn.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

It's all about market sentiment. These ... (temporary) factors outweigh the sharp increase in OPEC oil production in June ... and the continued increase in Libyan and Nigerian output, at least at the moment.feedback

Jacques Rousseau - Clearview

What that means is this is OPEC's big chance. As long as they can keep oil supply relatively constant, this higher demand is going to draw down inventories.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

We thought this market was actually a bit oversold. We think the fundamentals are better than where the price was earlier.feedback

Stephen Schork

Given that all these bearish headlines have been priced into the market, if you're going to have any sort of risk of a large outside move, I think it would be to the upside at this point.feedback

Dennis Gartman

...It WILL, the effects of which are obviously long term very, very bearish.feedback

William Baruch - iiTrader

I am long-term bearish oil, but I'm staying out of the way until $47 to $48 [per barrel]. At that point, we could see a good sell opportunity.feedback

David Thompson

Typically June/July represents the seasonal peak in refinery demand for crude. It gets tougher to use up all that crude as refinery utilization starts to ease off as we move past the peak of summer driving season.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

The rise in OPEC production will further delay the point at which balance is restored on the oil market.feedback

David Fyfe - International Energy Agency

That arithmetic ought to persuade Opec and Russia of the value of sticking with it, maybe cutting sufficient extra barrels to offset Libya and Nigeria increases and reaping the reward of higher overall 2017 revenues. But the politics of apportioning further cuts will get messy.feedback

David Fyfe - International Energy Agency

I think the extent to which Saudi Arabia bled revenue during 2014-2016 forced them back to the Opec table before the job of really turning the screw on US shale and other non-Opec supply was completed. However, the production deal has at least staunched the cash hemorrhage for now.feedback

Tim Dove - Pioneer

I personally believe (the oil price) where we are right now is not sustainable. It comes in the form of two words: Saudi Arabia. They cannot have a scenario, which is $43 or $44 (per barrel) oil, and sustain their national budgets.feedback

Tim Dove - Pioneer

We're not going to not drill because this very well may be the time where the well costs are as low as they're ever going to be. We can pare away and still be profitable even in a $45 (per barrel) environment. We may just dial back at the margin in that scenario and not be a significant over-spender.feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

We are not yet at the highest level of short positions on record, but nearing it, which means we could start to move higher in the back half of the year.feedback

Andrew Lebow

I think in the market, over the last four weeks or so, every news item has been uniformly bearish, even the technical situation has been bearish and a lot of the entrenched bulls were really throwing in the towel. The downside momentum was clear and today it just got to a level where it's been arrested for the time being.feedback

Matt Smith

We're seeing a fairly widespread rebound in the June numbers. That's been the trend of OPEC loadings all year: move to compliance and move out of it from an export perspective.feedback

Matt Smith

None of those three are showing signs of a materially tightening market. I think the global market is showing signs of strain simply because you've got floating storage off Singapore and Malaysia close to the highest levels of the year. They're not dropping. In fact, they're tipping higher.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

What the market is in the process of doing is trying to draw out a response from the industry. Until they get it, they're going to keep grinding it lower and lower.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

I don't want to call [Tuesday's price rise] a dead cat bounce. But it's a nominal bounce. It's certainly nothing that proves that the bear market is over. I think it's the notion that the next $7 will be a move up as opposed to a move down.feedback

Patrick DeHaan - GasBuddy Organization

So many Americans love to hold onto that myth that gas prices go up for the holiday, and yet, here we are. Gas prices down 15 cents a gallon in the last few weeks.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

We've fallen a long way. If you're initiating a short position now, you missed a lot of the ride down.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

The hedge fund community has clearly lost their faith in OPEC and the Saudis to be able to achieve balance, which was a much ballyhooed position over the last couple of months.feedback

Phillip Streible - R.J. O'Brien & Associates

The drawdown we'll expect is just right around 1 million barrels for crude oil, so data coming out of course is going to be quite bearish for oil going forward.feedback

Miswin Mahesh - Barclays

(The falling price) reflects ample supplies of light sweet crude in the Atlantic. Higher output from Libya, Nigeria; and offers of North Sea crude from floating storage are looming on the market.feedback

Nannette Hechler-Fayd

Since the coming up of shale oil in the U.S., (oil) has been caught up in this broad range between $40 and $60 and we are again testing this lower bound. Whether one likes it or not, there are a number of shale producers that are really not going to look very profitable at this moment. So production is likely at this point to react a bit more than what we have all been expecting in the last half year, Also the inventories are starting to be drawn.feedback

James Williams

It's not surprising the rig count has been rising in the Bakken because producers there will not see the full extent of the crude price drop we've had over the past month. They just got access to a new pipeline, which will reduce the cost of transporting their crude by train.feedback

James Williams

The higher rig count this week reflects decisions made a couple of months ago when oil prices were higher.feedback

Ashok Sharma

There might be a slow creep up towards 60 (on the Worldscale measure). W60 is at least on the horizon. Rates from West Africa to China are already at W56. The storage play has gained traction. If oil prices head lower, floating storage will get more traction. If prices go to $20 a barrel it will be great for shipping – good for oil tankers.feedback

Ian Reid

I think that's going to be a very hard ask to be honest. We actually see this OPEC agreement breaking up towards the middle of next year. In that case, we're going to see a huge amount of extra oil on the market next year.feedback

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh

We are in discussions with OPEC members to prepare ourselves for a new decision. But making decisions in this organisation is very difficult because any decision will mean production cuts for the members.feedback

Jabar al-Luaibi

Iraq supports the agreement that we reached; if developments happen contrary to OPEC's interests, the (OPEC) ministers will hold an extraordinary meeting.feedback

Jabar al-Luaibi

We are now in talks with Exxon Mobil, if we don't reach an agreement, we have other options.feedback

Ian Reid

I think that's going to be a very hard ask to be honest. They can't get the price up to a level where they can keep the shale guys out of the game so unfortunately they're just chasing their tail at the moment.feedback

Beat Wittmann

Net-net lower prices are positive for G-7 countries and certainly for emerging markets where it's an important input factor…It takes off some pressure, of course, from interest rates and inflation rates as well, so I don't see that as negative as long as we don't go really much lower. Low oil prices - as long as we have orderly markets - is quite positive.feedback

Greg McKenna

A deeper cut could arrest the price decline but OPEC needs to actually do it rather than just talk about it.feedback

Oystein Berentsen - OPEC

Global supply outages have fallen to a new low not seen in years. U.S. shale is returning at full force ... (and there are) high storage levels afloat and on land.feedback

Robert McNally

You cannot fight the Federal Reserve but you can fight OPEC. Somebody at OPEC has to cut further but no one is willing.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

What didn't help were those conflicting comments from OPEC ... and Iran. They need to be singing from the same hymn sheet if we are to believe that there's positivity to be taken from these cuts while the U.S. continues to produce more and the rig-count goes up. As we saw yesterday, even a drawdown in stockpiles offered absolutely no help because it just added to the murky outlook.feedback

Amrita Sen

This is like a falling knife right now, I genuinely haven't seen sentiment this bad ever. We have had clients emailing saying they have been trading this for 20 or 30 years and they have never seen something like this.feedback

Jenna Delaney - S&P Global

We definitely have seen U.S. production take a lot of players by surprise. People are really watching to see whether U.S. production is going to grow, taper off or skyrocket.feedback

Robert McNally

The so-called 'cuts' implemented in January were off of record high levels producers reached in October last year.feedback

Philippe Crouzet - Vallourec

All this means that in terms of volumes, we are, if not back to the volumes of 2014, at least not far from that level.feedback

Philippe Crouzet - Vallourec

The rigs are much more efficient today than three years ago. They run much faster, drill more wells, and each well is longer than in the past.feedback

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