All quotes about OPEC
OPEC has been commented on by 318 key people in the news. You can find all of them on this page with their statements. People who have been most quoted about OPEC are: John Kilduff, Helima Croft, Jeffrey Halley and Mohammed Barkindo. For instance, the most recent quote from John Kilduff is: “Now the OPEC and the non-OPEC adherents to the deal that was cut have a big problem on their hands because these guys aren't going away as quickly this time.”.
All quotes about OPEC
WTI crude may be in store for further punishment moving forward with production in the United States rising consistently and the inflated inventories simply counteracting the efforts of OPEC to stabilize the oil markets.
OPEC has used up most of its arsenal of verbal weapons to support the market. One hundred percent compliance by all is the only tool they have left and on that account they are struggling.
A look below $50 (for Brent) is quite possible today if DoE data show a similar pattern, but it's impossible to say how far below $50.
The idea that we couldn't see some type of pullback in Q2 or early Q3 as you head into the summer months is kind of silly. We've seen issues on whether or not OPEC, and specifically Saudi Arabia, can in fact curtail the supply of oil.
The market is increasingly worried that the continued overhang of supply is not being brought down fast enough. For Opec to extend the cuts into the second half of the year will be fraught with problems because in order to have a continued successfu[...]
Global demand for 2017 is expected to remain healthy and surpass long-term average growth in demand of 1.2 million barrels per day by between 0.2 and 0.4 million barrels per day. As such, the combination of robust demand and weaker global supply lea[...]
They will more likely opt for income and will push to get help from non-OPEC.
It's too early to talk about it in the middle of March, (the matter) should be discussed and a decision should be made at the end of April or in the middle of May.
I can tell you that in the first four months we will be well above our commitment. So we committed, but we seek equal commitment by others.
So prices have just kind thrown in the towel in the last week. I think we'll get a bounce here in the short term today. We're seeing lower imports and a draw coming through. We're bouncing from key support now. It'll depend over the next couple of m[...]
Everybody was focusing on long speculatives' interest in this market – [there was] also one of the biggest short commercial positions in this market because [drillers] have all taken advantage of the rise above $50 to lock in their cash flows going [...]
U.S. oil stockpiles have gained around 50 million barrels since the start of the year, raising some doubts over the effectiveness of OPEC cuts.
There are also certain doubts as to whether all OPEC members will stick to their quotas (notably Iraq), which combined, could very well see the Brent oil price slip towards $50 over the coming fortnight.
It's really healthy that shale producers understand the importance of OPEC. We're all in the same boat.
We're back to growth in the Bakken.
We have this great opportunity to run with. We can develop what we have and grow.
From there you could accelerate.
We achieved this great achievement of 4 million barrels per day ... middle of 2016, and now we have climbed up and we are reaching about 5 million barrels per day beginning of second half of this year.
Though I would caution that my optimism should not tip investors into what I would call irrational exuberance or wishful thinking that OPEC or the kingdom will underwrite the investments of others at our own expense and long-term interests.
History has also demonstrated that intervention in response to structural shifts is largely ineffective, and I believe we in the organization have learned that lesson. That's why Saudi Arabia does not support OPEC intervening to alleviate the impact[...]
We feel that there is a great deal of upside (to the cuts) and it was about time OPEC had an agreement. If an extension came along, we would comply with it... Considering the current environment, it could be positive.
It will depend on oil prices and market stability. If OPEC decides cuts, then Iraq will cut.
That's very premature at the moment...That's a long time in this market. When we meet in May and we'll be able to look at the numbers and see where they are. We are talking about stock levels and stock draw downs...to what extent we achieved our [go[...]
It depends who you talk to and it depends on what inventories you are looking at. But overall, I think so far, so good. Inventories are responding if you look at both onshore and offshore inventories.
We expect a balanced oil market in 2017 for the first time in nearly three years.
The oil market has been rebalancing and the powerful forces of supply and demand have been working. The mood will be different this year.
It's exciting now to see the rig count rising and business activity picking up again.
There's a lot of worry about what the U.S. supply picture will look like, and there's a lot of worries about the OPEC cuts. We think you're going to get good inventory numbers, which will propel a rally in the commodities, and take the exploration a[...]
People just don't seem to realise how big the Permian is. It will eventually pass the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia, and that is the biggest in the world.
Saudi Arabia is the key to the market right now. They have cut more than their commitment under the deal, carrying the load that is driving the high compliance rate. If [the Sauids] waver on IPO'ing Aramco or see a real loss of market share, they co[...]
The Trump Administration is modestly bearish for prices of crude oil, but demonstrably bullish for domestic crude oil production.
That was a key relationship for the dialogue they made for this OPEC, non-OPEC agreement, which really hasn't happened before, and the compliance is higher than it's been in the past. I think they're committed to this deal, and that's one of the mai[...]
Well, you've seen OPEC make a difference in the market here in the short term. Certainly, the Permian and unconventional play brings a new dimension to the marketplace, and it's just a question of how OPEC intends to respond to that. You saw earlier[...]
Barkindo, he's like the whip of OPEC. There are stories of Barkindo going to these capitals and trying to drive compliance. He drove the deal home. He's the one really forcing compliance. He knows he needs to talk to the heads of state rather than t[...]
I think what you're seeing is the shale play was totally without majors. I think part of my problem is we've seen too many times where there was a double dip. I don't want to be a pessimist but we're relying on OPEC and it's in their best interest t[...]
OPEC has very low production costs and so they have a lever they can pull in the choices they can make there. So what you're seeing in the U.S. is just a response to whatever that market price is. That gives us some flexibility to move as the market[...]
It's an exciting day for me because it's my first chance to talk to the investment community, talk a little bit about our plans, talk about what we see as being the advantages that we have as a company and the opportunities we have in front of us.
We're looking at a phased investment where we can bring in an initial early production within five years of that discovery, which is almost unheard of in this industry, and then as we continue to explore that block, bring on more production.
The market is largely a range-bound market, although positioning is quite skewed at present which could mean that when things do pop it could be a violent swing. The weakness at present is also a follow through from U.S. inventory statistics which h[...]
I think that the price is going up. But clearly we are going to an imbalance between demand and supply.
It feels like there is a bit of growth in 2017 (in the energy business).
It is currently at the stage of a proposal. What is more important is that all governments, which are the main producers and exporters of primary aluminum, agree on principles of single policy in the area of standards and technology.
When there's a shortage, there's no value to storage. So, there's a premium put on having the oil right now. That's where you want to be sitting up front in the near contract.
The big bet is that OPEC/non-OPEC complies with the cuts and inventory draws. If over the next few months inventory surveys show little in the way of confirming the cuts, back to the mid $40s we go.
At these price levels, the specs are more inclined to enter the oil market on the long side as they feel we just won't go below $30 as world demand keeps rising.
Energy stocks usually lead crude oil ... so if history is any guide, the decline in the XLE should be telling us that the recent bounce in WTI is not going to last. The Commitment of Traders data shows that the 'specs' are loaded to the gills in cru[...]
Right now, traders aren't incentivized (to store). It won't all stampede out of the gate, but inventory levels will come down. What will happen is that some of it will go to refineries, but a fair amount will be exported too.
There is unlikely to be much more of a tail to the increased flow from the Middle East into the U.S.
With those two together, the U.S. is becoming an export juggernaut.
Current oil prices are neither sustainable for OPEC or the industry. As such, inventories will have to fall, which we expect will be clearer in the spring after the seasonal build.
OPEC's strategy is targeting inventories – given the scale of the overhang, the market won't rebalance in six months – we expect an extension into (the second half of 2017).
It does clearly show the market is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. U.S. production increases are unlikely to outweigh cuts that we're seeing from OPEC and then adding expectations for a continued strong rise in global demand we have a mar[...]
OPEC's got a competitor. No doubt about it. They certainly have to be concerned with U.S. oil producers eating into their market share. If you're bullish, this should make you worry. I think by late March, April, the market should be concerned about[...]
OPEC is definitely looking over its shoulder at these rising numbers of exports, and it's undermining their efforts on a daily basis. Some of it's going to Asia. China is one of the more unusual buyers in there. The shale guys are filling the gap of[...]
The pressure on prices is going to stay in place and ultimately break us out of this range to the downside. I'm not sure the Saudis don't throw it down … but history says the shale guys will cut back.
We are an oil nation now. We are a petroleum state. You have to see how far down our shale producers can drive down their costs. It's hard to see them competitive with the likes of Saudi Arabia, but they are competitive with some other countries.
It looks like compliance is going to be well below 80 percent. Exports are on the upswing. We're seeing the tanker data.
It's a battle between how quick OPEC can cut without shale catching up. What OPEC really has to do is get the inventories down.
It is a very important parameter to show whether we are heading towards market stability or not.
All countries involved remain resolute in the determination to achieve a higher level of conformity. I think it would be very premature for the fact that the market is so dynamic it is becoming increasing challenging to forecast. It is too early for[...]
The OPEC cuts have ... led to an open arb for long-haul cargoes, leading to a rise in long-haul crude imports (which) make up for the decline in OPEC (supplies).
Under current oil market conditions, OPEC risks losing market share with further production cuts.
The whole reason arb opportunities are there is because of weak freight.
We are nearing the top of the trading range for West Texas and Brent and so the next couple of sessions will be crucial from a technical point of view, at least in determining which way we break. The DoE data tomorrow will be where we get our next i[...]
All countries involved remain resolute in the determination to achieve a higher level of conformity. It was evident in the last quarter of 2016 that total OECD commercial oil stocks were falling, and it is expected that we will see a further drop du[...]
All countries involved remain resolute in the determination to achieve a higher level of conformity. We will continue to focus on the level of inventory drawdown to bring the level closer to the five-year industry average.
We will continue to focus on the level of inventory drawdown to bring the level closer to the five-year industry average.
OPEC must at some point recognize and understand that they are no more the marginal producers and marginal production will be coming from shale oil so prices will come under massive pressure during this year once investors recognize oil supplies are[...]
"As bullish positioning by hedge funds continues to push on in unchartered territory, the risk of a swift, sharp snapback in prices continues to build,". "Especially given the bearish backdrop of record crude and gasoline inventories amid lower fuel[...]
As bullish positioning by hedge funds continues to push on in unchartered territory, the risk of a swift, sharp snapback in prices continues to build. Especially given the bearish backdrop of record crude and gasoline inventories amid lower fuel dem[...]
"Despite the headlines, the massive inventory glut in both oil and gasoline continues to thwart any upward momentum,"
European refiners are well positioned versus the OPEC cuts. The supply that is taken out of the market hits primarily the Asian market.
We're raising our output and it has more than a parochial impact: it's not so much that it makes the U.S. inventories unwieldy, it's that it adds to the global inventory. That really is the concern in the global oil market: we tend to import the med[...]
Europe's refineries are the world's marginal refineries. They are the swing capacity.
It's a confluence of factors. It's crude availabilities and it's strong (fuel oil).
In general, the more locally grown crudes ... were not included as part of the (supply-cut) agreement.
Despite the headlines, the massive inventory glut in both oil and gasoline continues to thwart any upward momentum.
In the fourth quarter of 2018, global oil demand will most likely surpass 100 million barrels per day.
Brent oil looks neutral in a range of USD55.38-USD56.44 per barrel.
[Customers are] looking at other types of crude to fill the gap left by a reduction in OPEC production, and at the same time you're seeing continuing demand in China, as world oil continues to increase. That supports the price of crude and certainly[...]
We're seeing cargos go out to Asia more and more. We've been waiting for this to happen. We'll see how it goes. We're going to face competition. It's incredible that we were able to put 9.5 million barrels into storage last week, while exporting a m[...]
This is the future. It's not what it was in the shale boom, where there was just too much production, and we had these big discounts for crude in the United States.
It's the type of barrel that chokes the market. We called it the Nigerian barrel last year.
The inventory trend in the U.S. raises doubts about whether the OPEC production cuts have actually resulted already in a tighter supply situation.
"The inventory trend in the U.S. raises doubts about whether the OPEC production cuts have actually resulted already in a tighter supply situation,"
Should this figure be confirmed by the EIA later today, U.S. crude stocks will have risen to a fresh record high.
It'll be tougher for the Saudis and some of the other Gulf producers to hold production steady during the late spring and through the summer. Other producers will be tempted to try and meet surging summer demand rather than hold the line and allow p[...]
Yes, you could maybe have an Angola fall off, but I think the core GCC powers this decision through.
If [prices are] slipping, there's a great incentive to continue to stabilize the market.
Output will likely increase. There's going to be a slippage in compliance.
With the current price some fields can be developed profitably though the majority of fields today will not be satisfied with this current price and will not be able to justify further development in high-cost oil fields, especially deep-water and u[...]
How long Saudi Arabia is going to be willing to shoulder the burden of these cuts if it proves that some of their cohorts are not fully complying with the deal, that remains to be seen.
I think the reason that they're sticking to this agreement is necessity and what it means to their own national budgets.
"What it (OPEC and non-OPEC cut) does is basically avoid an even worse surplus than what has been the case in 2015 and the first half of 2016,". "But it does not eliminate (the surplus) in the first half of the year,".
What it (OPEC and non-OPEC cut) does is basically avoid an even worse surplus than what has been the case in 2015 and the first half of 2016. But it does not eliminate (the surplus) in the first half of the year.
"Our view has always been that there was a good chance of an extension largely because we always recognised that the focus was on bringing down that overhang and that that process is very likely to take more than six months,"
"If OECD stocks were to continue to draw in 2017 at the same pace as that seen over July-December, then it would take us around a year to return to the five-year average in stocks,"
Our view has always been that there was a good chance of an extension largely because we always recognised that the focus was on bringing down that overhang and that that process is very likely to take more than six months.
If OECD stocks were to continue to draw in 2017 at the same pace as that seen over July-December, then it would take us around a year to return to the five-year average in stocks.
"It could be higher if the current higher demand trend persists,"
It could be higher if the current higher demand trend persists.
OPEC spent much of the last half of last year talking up this deal. We wanted to see whether they were actually going to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. The 10 members that were required to cut production under this deal have achieved 91 p[...]
Saudi Arabia is bearing the brunt of these cuts. They are going above and beyond, compensating a little bit for some of their cohorts within OPEC that are not quite in full compliance. Now how long Saudi Arabia is willing to shoulder the burden of t[...]
I think oil is in a very dangerous zone now precisely because demand is not there. The irony of this whole thing is that OPEC cuts are holding, but the demand is not there. And the longer oil wallows at this $52 level, the more likely it's actually [...]
I think from a trading perspective here for the near term, it looks like it's a level you probably want to step in and take a look from the long side. They're comfortable with that, therefore you probably get a trade here I think for the near-term t[...]
We remain highly sceptical of the overnight price action.
The resurgence of U.S shale amid the rising oil could undermine the efforts of OPEC and Non-OPEC members in mitigating the global oversupply consequently leaving oil prices vulnerable. There is a threat of the OPEC production cut deal falling apart [...]
The market is gradually accommodating for shale oil as well as shale gas – the demand is healthy. With that continuous demand increase, I think all available oils are going to be accommodated. All indications show we are heading in the right directi[...]
There's a recognition that even with the Opec production cuts, it's going to take some time for this large inventory overhang to be reduced to more normal levels. It leaves the oil price vulnerable to a move back below $50.
While we believe there is a 30 percent chance for the tax adjustment to go through, it also reinforces our belief that OPEC will do anything that is necessary to push oil prices higher as soon as possible.
Bottom line is: Bullish OPEC cuts versus bearish U.S. shale recovery. The OPEC cuts look like they'll be around a million barrels a day. The U.S. recovery is not a million barrels a day. It's 200,000, 300,000 and maybe 500,000 by the fourth quarter [...]
It's an eye-popping number, but I have no idea what to make of it. If you do the arithmetic, imports are up a million barrels a day so that's half of it. ... I'm not sure what to make of it. We'll get the real numbers [Wednesday]. For the time being[...]
Oil is under tremendous pressure now. It's below the major moving averages and we're going into the shoulder demand season.
"The general perception is that OPEC is cutting production, which is supporting prices, but high stock levels, rising rig counts and growing U.S. production are capping gains,"
If everything holds in terms of what OPEC has said I think we will hold north of US$50 a barrel.
The general perception is that OPEC is cutting production, which is supporting prices, but high stock levels, rising rig counts and growing U.S. production are capping gains.
It's a supply-driven setback ... We are within 2 million barrels of the record in U.S. gasoline stocks that we saw last February. A strong build in inventory reports could weigh on gasoline in a seasonal time frame where gasoline demand is weak.
Rig counts are increasing at an accelerating pace, and given the technological advances of the past three years, this should translate into significant supply. U.S. shale is coming back, and it's coming back strong.
I think $63, $65 (for Brent), I think you might be a little bit ambitious there because the OPEC producers have got this basic issue: they don't want the price to go too low, clearly, because their economies wouldn't stand it. But if the price goes [...]
"But if the price goes too high then that's going to attract a lot of investment in other parts of the world, principally the U.S. shale producers,"
For OPEC, and here we mean the Mideast countries, Asia is their core and growing market. The last thing OPEC ... would want is that as they develop newer markets outside the region, some other players like Rosneft or Venezuela [would] increase their[...]
Obviously we saw some solid gains in prices in the previous session so there might be a little bit of profit taking in the Asian session after the market rallied unexpectedly. But prices are still very much range-bound.
Oil stocks are drawing, especially in Europe. In Asia, strong demand is tightening the market, but it will take time.
The oil price is reacting to the implementation of production cuts by OPEC And non-OPEC producers. Inventory statistics today showed products building across the board. If we're seeing not only inventories here but inventories worldwide increase the[...]
We're waiting for America to drive again. I think it's new cars. I think it's an older demographic. It's gasoline that has to be cleared as you go into the spring weeks. It's almost every year you have the glut. Unfortunately, it has to be cleared a[...]
If we come out of turnarounds and margins are terrible because product inventories build instead of draw, we could be looking at a correction in late February, March time frame, which sets the stage for basically higher lows.
Something else that jumps off the page is how much gasoline demand is down. We're down 5.7 percent from the same period last year. Sometimes it says something about the economy.
You might have the oddity of gasoline prices moving higher while crude oil stays in a range. That's because there's enough refinery maintenance that there's going to be substantially less demand for crude oil from Feb. 15 to April 15. U.S refiners a[...]
Crude prices are still receiving support due to the weakening US dollar index and as markets look ahead to the upcoming OPEC report highlighting the level of compliance by the cartel on oil output cuts.
We are also noticing a significant decrease in speculative pressure to the prices.
Some countries have cut more than it was planned and are moving ahead of schedule. Russian oil production was down by 117,000 bpd in January.
We're not having any technical difficulties with this.
"If they hold 1 million bpd cuts into 2017, and the Russians contribute something, there could be a 250 million-barrel draw,"
If they hold 1 million bpd cuts into 2017, and the Russians contribute something, there could be a 250 million-barrel draw.
Opening up the environmentally sensitive areas that Obama had closed could make a difference that could increase conventional fuel production by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) or more, but that would take five to seven years, so in the short-term, [...]
We expect to see the momentum that began in the fourth quarter of 2016 continue in the year ahead.
We will conscientiously support OPEC ... but we will not appoint ourselves custodians of the policies of OPEC, nor will we be willing to play the role of swing producer at all.
I have a strong feeling that this will work out and that OPEC will be in the driver's seat.
"Saudi Arabia tried in the past to play the role of the swing producer by reducing production to maintain a specific price, but the result was unfavorable to the kingdom,". "Despite the fact that its production fell from more than 10 million bpd in [...]
That's a good start ... to cut production to bring the market back toward balance.
Saudi Arabia tried in the past to play the role of the swing producer by reducing production to maintain a specific price, but the result was unfavorable to the kingdom. Despite the fact that its production fell from more than 10 million bpd in 1980[...]
The key, this is the big game changer is that the OPEC cuts that they announced in November, these were the first major cuts in eight years, they're actually working. OPEC… they never cooperate. And it really is working this time.
The Trump presidency should benefit the oil sector. It's not clear which measures will be implemented, but lower taxation and lower concerns about tighter environmental constraints would benefit U.S. domestic production.
At the end of the day, U.S. shale oil drilling will depend on the prevailing market prices and there's not much Trump can do about that.
U.S. shale oil production could surprise to the upside this year.
The sour crude is really very, very valuable. I would expect Europe to be in a pretty big deficit of sour crude for a few months.
On the whole, there is a lack of medium and sour crude, which is leading (buyers) to look for alternatives.
OPEC supply is on track to decrease by 900,000 bpd in January, suggesting a high level of compliance thus far into the production curtailment agreement.
We hope by mid-year tankers which carry 1 million barrels of oil will be able to dock.
This investment project will further strengthen OPEC and non-OPEC relations. The investment (Rosneft deal) is very strategic for all the parties involved.
It's teamwork. Everybody worked very hard, especially Russia.
I have very little doubt that supply to market will come in for January just under 10 million barrels per day. That's as good as it gets at this point in time.
BP as well and some other companies are responding. So far everything is moving smoothly as far as the oil companies are concerned.
Shale remains a very real danger in terms of its resurgence and what that does to OPEC's plan to keep prices in the $50-$60 a barrel band.
We are abiding by OPEC policy and the OPEC agreement. We are cutting from all Iraq. BP as well and some other companies are responding.
We will not accept anything less than 100 per cent compliance.
We are building a factory of trust when we do one, two, three deals which will lead to big, important energy alliances. To a big extent what we are seeing today is OPEC 2.0 because it is not OPEC alone anymore but OPEC plus Russia. An alliance of su[...]
This is the trend of the future. For a long period of time it was not possible because of political obstacles. But today this trend is strengthening including because of Russia's active role in the Middle East.
That's why I think this OPEC compliance meeting this weekend is important. If there is some negative headline coming out of that, that's a catalyst to have a sell-off.
That's why we don't think we're going to break out into the $60s or $70s anytime soon.
It's really in the interest of these countries. No OPEC agreement is perfect but if there's large compliance it brings a sub-sense of stability. These countries were all looking at their budgets and needed to do something.
OPEC now sees shale as part of the global mix.
I think the whole oil industry worldwide has re-calibrated to a lower oil price level and shale is a lot more efficient.
At the end of the day we are definitely going to see more oil coming from the United States. We will see a bit of a zig zag and we will see a greater volatility of the prices.
As a result of the increase in prices. We are going to see a substantial amount of oil pouring into the market from the United States.
Margins will be supported as these outages will affect the ability of the region to stock up before maintenance picks up in March.
Lower supplies due to these disruptions have already pushed the Asian naphtha and fuel oil cracks up in the last week or two.
For each USD 10 per barrel increase in oil prices, oil demand will decline by 10 basis points. While consensus expects demand growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2017 (vs 1.4 million bpd in 2016), we see risks to the downside as demand growth in China and [...]
It's probably just a sentiment thing, there's a lot of uncertainty in oil price regarding OPEC and U.S. oil producers.
Many countries are actually going the extra mile and cutting beyond what they've committed ... I am confident about the impact ... and I am very encouraged about those first two weeks.
My expectations (are)...that the rebalancing that started slowly in 2016 will have its full impact by the first half. Once we get close to the 5-year average of global stocks and inventories we will basically let our foot off the brakes and let the [...]
Next week, Venezuela will send a letter with a new proposal, a new formula for stabilizing real and fair prices (for oil) so that all the governments that signed the deal (on cutting oil output) could study and discuss it.
Oil pricing will be driven this week by the movement of the U.S.-dollar rather than crude itself, with President-elect Trump's inauguration ... being the main event.
We remain optimistic Mr. President that with the full and timely implementation of this historic decision between us and non-OPEC, in 2017 the situation of our economies will improve tremendously. And stability to the oil market that has eluded us f[...]
"I would expect that we will see a rebalancing of the markets within the first half of this year,". "The name of the game is volatility.".
I expect the U.S. shale oil will go back to increasing production this year.
There's still real questions about the OPEC/non-OPEC deal. It's only getting about 60 percent of compliance. That's what the observations are to date, based on shipping and other monitoring.
I am confident ...I have no doubt about it.
With the OPEC deal, the risk of a serious oil price correction has been reduced.
If things go well in those countries, it could be quite hard for OPEC to maintain a 32.50 million bpd production target.
My gut feeling is that the joint cut by OPEC and non-OPEC in early December stirred up strong interest from refiners and traders to bet on higher prices, particularly from those independent refiners which have not exhausted the usage of quota at the[...]
I remain confident that ... this historic and landmark decision will be implemented fully.
We have been moving towards rebalancing the markets for some time. Even better, the pace of rebalancing will be accelerated by recent production agreements within Opec and outside. I have confidence in these agreements to bring stability to the glob[...]
The real correction will happen when we see the actions of all of those ... concerned nations who came together to try to help the market. We want moderation. We want to reduce volatility; we cannot eliminate it. We also want prices that are support[...]
I'm not sure we fully understand what would be Mr. Trump's policies, but I'm sure it will be America first.
I remain very confident with what I have seen in the last several months. The level of commitment from both sides ... is unparalleled.
I am confident that the combination of capping production by 25 countries and growth of demand will continue to balance and prices will respond accordingly.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are focusing their cuts on U.S. and European customers as they target excess inventories and protect market share in Asia. Southeast Asian demand is small when compared to North Asia.
The real market battleground is East of Suez.
The sad thing is that history suggests (OPEC countries) do not tend to stick to this kind of deal… I mean it is probably in their interest to but investors could well be disappointed.
We could expect 80 to 90 percent compliance (from OPEC and non-OPEC countries) by the time we get through to Q2 and then the question of course is whether that is going to continue into the second half of the year.
It is one of the reasons why we see (oil) prices higher in the first half and lower in the second half because I think what is likely to happen is that many of these OPEC countries will start to see the fruits of this compliance (deal) and they see [...]
It's unusual to have these agreements last for very long because inevitably someone cheats. It's certainly conceivable that the agreement falls apart and you get more production than anticipated in addition to already thinking that it (the oil price[...]
Probably around August to September last year we started to see an increase in the amount of need out there from companies that are looking to hire and that continued through the holidays, which is rare. I think we're going to see a very busy year f[...]
I think there still is quite a bit of caution in the market. There is building confidence as we move through 2017, as we see if OPEC can deliver on the cuts.
We are not necessarily set for an immediate price take-off. One problem is the very high OPEC production in fourth-quarter 2016, . The still-rising crude oil production in Libya is also creating concerns that OPEC's cuts might be less effective.
Towards the second half of this year, U.S. shale starts to kick in.
The Middle East SWFs may breathe more easily now that oil has recovered to some extent. OPEC countries have agreed on production cuts, so the dollar flows will continue to be steady, and that will increase the pool of sovereign wealth.
Of the Middle East producers that agreed to the cuts, [Iraq] is probably the one that has the most [international oil company]-operated production; there are a lot more parties involved, which makes it more complex.
Really, these guys have been going hell for leather here, pedal to the metal, before screeching to a halt as they try to reach compliance. It's the most transparent way we have to see if they're adhering to the production cuts, given they depend upo[...]
We expect the deal to only be partly implemented, many of the non-OPEC countries are likely to renege as are many of the smaller OPEC members, but cuts should still be large enough to help rebalance the market.
Crude prices should trade most of the time above their 2016 average. A stronger upside potential should become evident especially in the second half when the market fundamentals will record a significant improvement (under the assumption of strong c[...]
A broad risk for the recovery of oil prices is the U.S. dollar, which has risen to multi-year high levels... The greenback will eventually mount pressure on oil prices and may curb any gains seen from tighter fundamentals.
Markets will be looking for anecdotal evidence for production cuts. The most likely scenario is OPEC and non-OPEC member countries will be committed to the deal, especially in early stages.
The most likely scenario is OPEC and non-OPEC member countries will be committed to the deal, especially in early stages.
There will be a supply impact.
We'll see some compliance with the OPEC quotas and the non-OPEC agreement, but it will fade into the second quarter and it may not be there at all in the second half of 2017. As you see prices go up above $55 a barrel in the forward markets, you wil[...]
I do think we'll see [demand exceed supply] in 2017, but I think it's going to be front-end loaded.
Emerging market demand, and specifically from China, has been really strong in 2016. However, they've been on these sorts of bouts of bargain hunting and opportunistic purchases to essentially fill their stockpiles, their strategic reserves. And so,[...]
We're the bread basket and the refiner to the world. There's wild cards out there. Does the OPEC production deal hold together? Do the frackers come back in a big way? This is a tough year to call. In my opinion, it's the hardest one to call in a wh[...]
The boat is loaded to one side in the market right now. Shorts have covered. People have piled in from the long side, waiting for these cutbacks to come through. If they don't, there's going to be big punishment in this market. He also said that Chi[...]
Oil prices have likely topped out in the $53 to $55 a barrel range due to the threat of more U.S. supply coming back into the market. He too warned that OPEC supply will remain too high to balance the oversupplied market if the cartel only achieves [...]
It's inevitable. Somebody's going to cheat. You get until Jan. 21 to believe your hoped-for outcomes and then you converge with reality. Historically OPEC always blows past its targets. We've been waiting to see this come through for decades. Is thi[...]
Energy Minister Novak, even yesterday, did sort of leave a get-out-of-jail-free clause by saying Russia would look at the cuts, but within technical parameters. It's possible that what the Russians are looking at is saying, well, we were planning to[...]
OPEC production cuts will help alleviate the current oversupply, allowing recent price gains to be sustained, and possibly providing momentum for even higher prices. But, as higher prices kick in, shale production would likely quickly ramp up, effec[...]
Even if the government was committed to contributing, it's difficult to see how they would get the companies to do it.
A stronger dollar puts pressure (on financial balance sheets for some countries, like Venezuela).
Accelerating non-OPEC (production) declines and OPEC's decision to cut were key to the price rise in 2016. But the rebalancing process is still in its infancy and speculators want to position for that.
I expect the steel price rally to continue in the first half of 2017 when stock pilling will be at a final phase and infrastructure construction programmes will start.
But the rebalancing process is still in its infancy and speculators want to position for that.
You saw a big increase in their crude oil demand to feed those refineries. The problem is that they just turned that all right around and exported the refined product to the global market, particularly out in Asia.
From a seller standpoint – from an OPEC standpoint – your propensity to cheat and increase production to take advantage of dollar-denominated sales will increase. But if OPEC reverts to being OPEC – that is to say 60 to 70 percent compliance – then [...]
If we do see continued strength in the dollar that will have a double whammy on oil prices.
In spite of a strong dollar, today might just be the day we touch Dow 20,000. I think that'll be based on the fact that oil prices could make a stab toward $55.
Certainly we planned (before the OPEC deal) to grow (output) more aggressively.
I am proposing a new system, a new formula to fix markets and oil prices to enable stability, harmony, continuity. I aspire to at least 10 years of stability with realistic, fair prices of oil, and I am going to achieve it.
We will meet... in January with OPEC and non-OPEC countries and we will coordinate over the method in which (compliance with) the cut will be implemented. I personally think that the announcements coming from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, [...]
I think it is the usual reversal of fortunes that exist in the Asian time zone after the previous session's close. In this case there is some profit taking after the last session gains. Oil prices are also weaker due to the stronger dollar. But over[...]
We're pretty close to the closing level – it'll be interesting to see if the upward momentum is maintained as the Europe and U.S. sessions open up. It is a safe assumption particularly in the early stages that OPEC and non-OPEC producers will abide [...]
If you look at where the biggest production cuts are coming from its largely about the Gulf states and Russia – this gives me even more comfort there will be material compliance. Russia invested a lot in securing agreement so you wouldn't expect the[...]
I welcome the statement by the Rayayina Patrols Company of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, Western Branch, announcing lifting of the blockade on all the pipelines. There were no payoffs and no back room deals. For the first time in nearly three year[...]
If we stay (at $55 a barrel), the world's biggest oil companies start to make money again. If we go back down to $50 (or lower) in 2017...then those companies are in the negative territory and they go back into survival mode where they have been in [...]
We reached an historic accord. In the next few days, I will go to the oil nations and leave everything ready for a consensus formula for market stability and the fixing of prices for the next 10 years.
For prices to go up further decisively, these inventories will first have to be clear out.
Show the need for those cuts – the oil needs to move. If they are respected, the physical impact would be later. It will take some time.
If they start taking crude from Nigeria again, they're not sure they'll get it next month.
We continue to believe Total should be one of the first majors that currently offers a scrip to move away and towards a full cash dividend, given the strength of its growth pipeline over the next few years.
All companies agree to cut output.
They're getting some benefit from the higher flat price.
Buyers are loading as much sour (crude) as they can. The light sweet is not as interesting – there is a glut of it.
That suggests that as much as we might want to believe that OPEC has discipline, the longer-term and in many ways more important markets are signaling that what you see is what you'll get, and no more than that.
So, just be careful here. Diamondback Energy is up 50 percent for the year ... the stuff its pulling out of the ground has to keep climbing before you can get too excited about participating in still one more equity deal from the oil patch. I'm not [...]
The Federal Reserve hike ... saw bond yields rise, dealing a blow to commodities in general.
The Federal Reserve hike … saw bond yields rise, dealing a blow to commodities in general.
This is exactly what [OPEC members] had been worried about: this deal gave new life to the shale industry. OPEC's going to have its hands full with them for a time.
It's clear that the Trump administration puts a high priority on energy, that oil and gas are engines of economic growth going forward.
You clearly have to have a new chapter of rising oil prices to attract investment, to grow supply, to keep up with growing demand. I think we're now in an upward trajectory of prices.
At the end of the day, what's most important for oil and gas supply? The price. We have to have the price signal to make sure we have enough supply to be affordable, that it's going to keep price stability, and it's also going to have supply securit[...]
We expect Asia trading to have a slightly negative bias as traders trim longs into the Federal Reserves' main event this evening.
Momentum continues to wane in oil markets with both Brent and WTI slightly lower overnight, following higher than expected API inventory numbers in the United States ... (which) showed an unexpectedly large increase of 4.7 million barrels. We expect[...]
If you continue to see this strong push toward the end of the year, you don't see investors feeling the need to short. It's certainty versus uncertainty in the market, and right now, right or wrong, the market feels fairly certain about some of the [...]
With U.S. equity markets making new all-time highs post-election, sentiment has turned extremely bullish in the options market. Not only have demand for calls reached record highs in the S&P, we see this upside chasing across many of the sub-sectors[...]
OPEC and non-OPEC countries have concluded that in order to keep the market in good health and restore balance between supply and demand, they have to play an active role. The market has felt this, and there is a real demand and will for that to hap[...]
We have started advising our customers of the expected reductions in oil deliveries to ensure the State's compliance with OPEC's allocations.
With this era of low gas prices, many Americans were trading in their vehicles, selling their vehicles, buying new vehicles that have been less fuel-efficient. If gas prices do start to inch up, there's a lot of Americans that bought a new vehicle i[...]
This country is chaotic and every day it gets worse. What's the point?
The thinking is that OPEC will probably stick with it because you have the leaders shouldering the bulk of the cuts and they seem to be committed.
The one bullish argument is stocks have been cheap relative to bonds, but guess what? The 10-year is nearly 2.50 and headed toward 3.
I think at some point, we're going to need some fundamentals to substantiate the expectations that are built in. I think there's some quick hit. If you could lower the corporate tax rate and do it quickly, that could be a bounce [for stocks].
Interest rates and oil prices tend to move closely together. It's kind of geared to growth. The oil price hike over the last couple of weeks you could argue is supply related rather than demand. At least based on where oil prices are, interest rates[...]
There's no question that 2017 is gonna be more expensive than 2016. But it's impossible to make a case for it to be anywhere near as expensive as, let's say, 2011, 12, 13 and 14, when we regularly saw prices go above $3.
Something we have not seen very often is that gas prices have been rising during the month of December. I think we'll continue to see prices picking up.
But it's impossible to make a case for it to be anywhere near as expensive as, let's say, 2011, 12, 13 and 14, when we regularly saw prices go above $3.
Everything we've dealt with so far is promises as opposed to results. They tend to overpromise and under deliver.
We are not talking about a fuel apocalypse.
I like the bottoming formation in crude, but I think better opportunity rests in trading in the actual energy stocks.
I think we'll set the stage for it in 2017, if prices remain in the $55 to $60 range on average or higher.
Fifty-dollar oil will put them all back in business. It is the breakeven point which continues to decline.
I think there's a big question of whether producers will spend out side of cash flow or within cash flows.
Prices will go higher but not in a straight line. It never does, and it never will.
In the sheiks versus shale fight, score one for the shale patch. It's not really that simple, but clearly the Saudis have stuff to gain from this ... They have things they need to achieve, from their social constraints and things get worse when pric[...]
Shale is coming back. Shale will come back with a vengeance. Shale, in my view is a technology in its earliest stages. We are not in the seventh or eighth inning. We are probably in the third. The recovery rate in shale is still low. What we get out[...]
There's a whole host of other companies that were part of the growth story over the 2013 to 2015 time frame that added a significant amount of volume and those guys were the ones that were really hurting over the last two years. I think there's a bi[...]
There's a lag with everything. Just as there was a lag when the industry stopped. It took a year to start to see declines. It's the same thing on the way back up. It's kind of a big ship that isn't going to turn quickly. It's not a light switch. I t[...]
The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 per cent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices. The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.
It could mark a sea change in the oil market going into 2017. It's definitely one to watch I think. But as ever with these OPEC and non-OPEC nations, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, so let's not get our party hats on too soon.
They (the Fed) really don't want to scare the market. I think they will remain quite cautious in their forecasts for next year. They may not be as hawkish as the market currently prices.
It's going to be hard to have the energy to make new lows (on the euro) before the Fed.
We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is also boosting reflation expectation around the world. Traders want to be hedged against this situation, so people are buying financials globally. Everyone wants to benefit from a reflation [...]
Investors who have been overweight cash and fixed interest are continuing to push stocks higher as confidence builds.
This is not a deal they just sign off and forget. It's a deal they are committed to and they will work to make sure they adhere to the actual goal set in the agreement.
If even non-OPEC countries are joining the oil output cuts, there is a pretty good chance we get a deficit in oil supply. This is why bond markets are now pricing in a higher inflation risk.
The OPEC deal made two weeks ago hinged on the non-OPEC members also agreeing to cut production - many members of OPEC had stated that they would only agree to cut production on the basis the non-members also agreed. The agreement puts the issue of [...]
The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.
This market has gone up without taking a breather and will enter a cautious trading day as it awaits the Fed.
The question of whether the production agreements are adhered to is one for the future. At this stage the safe assumption is that they will be, especially in the first few months.
The intent by all those who participated is to contribute to drawing down oil inventories that are excessive. And whether the reduction in that over-supply comes from deliberate intervention – like it is the case in Saudi Arabia – or by simply manag[...]
We will know the exact numbers tomorrow but I am expecting about 10 to 11 (non-OPEC) countries to be on the final declaration with specific numbers.
For non-OPEC expect cuts of 600,000 barrels per day or more... This is a very historic meeting... This will boost the global economy and will help some OECD countries to reach their inflation targets.
Non-OPEC has also made the largest contribution we have ever seen.
Recently, due to the OPEC decision, that has blown that spread out again and that will only further serve to incentivize higher exports.
With these cuts, it's a big opening for more U.S. oil to go out that way.
It is still in testing the phase. The export ban was lifted last last year, and since then, we're seeing this evolution of the U.S. export industry, as there's this period of exploration to figure out how best to get these exports out, how to make t[...]
Given how you keep driving these costs down in some of the more prolific shale plays, it doesn't matter what the spread is. If there's enough meat in the profit margin, they're going to send it no matter what the spread is.
As prices move up and US shale production rebounds, it remains to be seen how sustainable prices are and how OPEC will respond.
We're hoping for 600,000 (barrels per day to be cut) from non-OPEC (countries) so that is going to be a substantial volume that will bring health back into the market.
We had record-high output (in November) and we think we can at least talk about freezing at the November level on our part.
Every time they lower interest rates the cartel, because I call it a cartel, the illegal monopoly, raises oil prices. So the monopoly, because that is all it is, it's a total illegal monopoly – if businesses ever formed OPEC, everybody would be put [...]
Nobody calls! Who is going to do it? Condoleezza Rice?
Nobody in this country calls and says get that goddamn oil price down. You get it down, and they can do it! In the old days our people, our presidents used to call. We don't call anymore. They ought to call, and they say you get that price down, and[...]
At the end of the day, the risk (in these options) is defined and limited. It's either going to work out in a big way or fizzle out.
These kind of producer hedges are net short volatility overall.
The only time you get real collective cuts, including by non-OPEC, is when prevailing prices are at rock bottom lows. My sense is the fear factor is not strong enough to get countries to do anything but promise cuts that they never intend to make.
They understand it's good politically to give support to this deal because it provides support for the oil price through the winter, but in reality I don't think anyone expects this to be carried through in any credible way.
Russia will gradually cut output in the first half of 2017 by up to 300,000 barrels per day, on a tight schedule as technical capabilities allow.
That's 200,000 barrels that will be coming to market that someone else will have to cut to balance the market.
You have to cut production. This decision is a positive step forward.
Passenger demand growth in October was consistent with long-term trends but represented a deterioration compared to September. While the negative traffic impact from terror attacks and political instability in parts of the world has receded, the lon[...]
All companies have supported our proposals for an oil production cap.
It's going to be a cat and mouse game between OPEC and shale oil in America. OPEC members will say, if you (raise output), we are going to ramp up production and push oil back down to US$35' ... I hope shale in America will be responsible and realiz[...]
In some core Bakken areas, it's economical to drill in the US$45-US$55 WTI price. I would expect that as we lock in some of the low US$50s, activity picks up a bit.
I would expect that as we lock in some of the low US$50s, activity picks up a bit.
It is important that all the other (parties to the talks) reach an agreement. We have calculated our (production and consumption) balance and we have our own clear position. Our oil producers will not suffer.
Looking into 2017, I would expect refining margins to be down year-on-year, especially if OPEC and Russia cut.
Nobody believed me three years ago. Now we have over half the U.S. rigs in the Permian Basin. Most of the rigs that are drilling in the world today are in the Permian Basin. And so it's ready to take off, especially with this recent OPEC agreement.
OPEC is putting U.S. shale oil to the test... (and) we will truly see what it can deliver.
With both Russia and OPEC producing at record (levels), the market is scratching its head about how both blocs will manage to comply with the Vienna production cut targets. The point is valid, as the more OPEC and Russia produce, the higher the star[...]
While the negative traffic impact from terror attacks and political instability in parts of the world has receded, the long downward trend in yield – which helped to stimulate travel–has levelled off. Furthermore, the recent OPEC (Organisation of th[...]
OPEC knows this dynamic. As such they have been quite clever by only pledging a cut lasting six months to begin with. This tightens up the front end of the market. OPEC would prefer though not to lift forward prices further out on the curve. They do[...]
The ever-rising expectations of the Federal Reserve raising US rates in December have left Gold extremely vulnerable to losses with the metal hovering around 10-month lows at $1170 as of writing.
We are not the biggest oil-producing country outside OPEC, we will see what out partners' position is.
OPEC's decision to cut production has removed a lot of downside risk for 2017.
Alone in India, oil demand is projected to rise to more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, from 4.1 million barrels per day now.
If you can bet on one thing in this world, bet on a mother's love, and bet on the fact that OPEC cheats. But it will be a month or two before we see that happening.
The strong dollar is going to continue to be overhead resistance on commodity prices. Clearly that adds to the price of crude oil and that is bearish in the long run.
I've said for a long time that i don't expect oil to get above $52. There are so many people caught on the short side of WTI and that's what you are seeing right now. That will end sometime in the coming weeks.
There are so many people caught on the short side of WTI and that's what you are seeing right now. That will end sometime in the coming weeks.
There has been some speculation that the ECB would step and front load purchases of Italian bonds if markets became unsettled by a 'No' result, so perhaps it is the thoughts of a central bank liquidity sugar pill driving things again.
The peak of daily production for November was 11.231 million barrels. All our agreements will clearly be formed around this figure.
You kind of had no choice, mostly due to the fact that it was really the Saudis leading the charge. In the bond market, they say don't fight the Fed. In the oil market, you have to remember not to fight the Saudis.
When there's moves like we've seen in energy, it can be 40 percent of our futures trading.
It's not the old oil market. There's just a lot of flexibility, a lot of moving parts to it. It's going to be volatile.
Normally, it would be maybe 15 or 20 percent.
We came to refer to it as verbal intervention.
Shipping is a volume game, so higher OPEC production has supported the tanker rates over the past few years.
That had a pretty big move, basically the rates went up from around $5,000 (per day to hire a vessel) to all the way up to $15,000 to $18,000. That's why the move in the Baltic Dry Index looks very amplified.
Despite the recent uptick in maritime prices, overcapacity continues to impact carriers; 2016 prices were close to 50 percent lower than 2014 ocean prices.
Acquisitions by the carriers with large enough war chests to weather the storm is inevitable but fewer ship owners doesn't mean fewer ships or less capacity. It may bring a brief respite but the underlying overcapacity has not changed and is in fact[...]
This decision should be supported by all Russian oil companies.
This is positive news that will make a sustainable difference to the oil market over the coming months.
WTI has arrived at the peaks from the middle of last year and again in October.
The consumer isn't really focused on gasoline since prices remain low. A better economy, a better labour market -- those matter much more.
In light of earnings produced by some of TD's peers, we would expect relative underperformance on its valuation today, with TD's now noticeably lagging capital ratio likely adding to the pressure.