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Last quote about OPEC

James Woods - Rivkin Securities
This (extension) has been highly factored into the price of oil, and at this stage it is unlikely that we will see a deepening in the level of production cuts, with OPEC officials preferring to wait and see the impact of an extension in helping rebalance the market prior to taking any more drastic actions.feedback
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NEW May 25 2017
OPEC has been commented on by 340 key people in the news. You can find all of them on this page with their statements. People who have been most quoted about OPEC are: John Kilduff, Helima Croft, Khalid al-Falih and Alexander Novak. For instance, the most recent quote from John Kilduff is: “Going to Iraq to shore up support and push not just for six months but to push for nine months is getting the attention of the market. There are rumors that they want out of the deal. They want an exemption like the Iranians.”.
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All quotes about OPEC

Helima Croft - BC Capital

Once we had the Russia and Saudi announcement a week ago, the expectation is that we will get a nine-month extension as opposed to a six-month extension. I'm a little bit concerned if we just get a nine-month extension without a deeper cut it would kind of be a nonevent for the market. The argument is that you need to go beyond Q1 of 2018 to get inventories below the five-year average. That was the sort of surprise announcement that came out a week ago, but that puts a lot of pressure on this meeting.feedback

Amrita Sen

A lot depends on this meeting, at least in the wording, . Even if they (OPEC) don't do extra cuts, it's very important to come out and say: 'Look, we are going to concentrate on the exports', and not just say it, actually do it.feedback

Virendra Chauhan

It seems of the 0.5 million bpd production growth this year, 0.4 million bpd will come from large oil companies ... that are less sensitive to factors such as the curve shape.feedback

Fawad Razaqzada - Forex.com

With the U.S continuing to win market share by producing more oil at lower price levels, the global supply excess will take a long time to eradicate.feedback

Sushant Gupta - Wood Mackenzie

This (stocks decline) is a bit tricky as production cuts cause higher prices which will incentivize more production for the U.S. shale oil and reduce the impact of the production cuts. So it's a bit cyclical.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

With oil stocks nowhere near OPEC's self-assigned objective of the recent five-year average level, an extension of cuts seems all but a forgone conclusion.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

A mildly positive opening call comes as investors weigh up Moody's credit downgrade for China on debt sustainability concerns, a lukewarm reception for Trump's first budget (does it all add up?) as well as rising optimism ahead of tomorrow's OPEC meeting (especially after more favourable US inventory data) and news of potential M&A in the soft commodity sector.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

Congress needs to agree to this which is rather uncertain. But of course, it could weigh on the back end of the forward curve.feedback

Michael Tran - RBC Capital Markets

If you're bringing oil back into the market, that's going to pressure prices in the longer run. It dampens or mutes any swift moves to the upside given that selling SPR barrels will be lumpy in nature going forward.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

It has been some time since we had such a strong consensus going into an OPEC meeting. Despite a supply cut extension being factored in by the market, oil prices have made only modest progress. It may take more than an extension to rekindle bullish spirits.feedback

Aldo Flores-Quiroga

Stable markets help provide a stable framework for investment, and that helps Mexico.feedback

Virendra Chauhan

The U.S. has likely become more sanguine when it comes to having a very large SPR holding, given lofty medium term forecasts for the Permian basin.feedback

Neil Atkinson - Lloyds Bank

The difference is today very few countries could significantly increase their production even if they wanted to.feedback

Joseph McMonigle

They have to renew, otherwise prices would collapse. Some people are floating, Oh there could be deeper cuts.' That's nearly impossible for most Opec members, even the Saudis.feedback

Joseph McMonigle

A big macro change is the Aramco IPO driving Saudi policy.feedback

Neil Atkinson - Lloyds Bank

The first imperative for the Saudis [with last year's deal] was they needed to bring some order to their finances. But as far as Saudi is concerned, yes, the Aramco IPO is a factor.feedback

Alan Gelder - Wood Mackenzie

Deepening cuts requires almost a renegotiation [on last year's agreement], whereas an extension is relatively administratively easy to do. What you can say is the role of US tight oil has reduced the influence of Opec. But Opec still has a significant influence.feedback

Neil Atkinson - Lloyds Bank

There may be constraints, be it availability of equipment and crew.feedback

Essam al-Marzouq

He (Falih) has talked to several countries including Norway, including Turkmenistan, including Egypt, and they have made signs of their willingness to join the collaboration.feedback

Igor Sechin - Rosneft

Restrictions (under the OPEC deal) are mainly applied to greenfields. We will maintain mature fields as they are and won't cut production there. Our priority will be maintaining mature fields.feedback

Dharmendra Pradhan

Gone are the days of market stability for consumers. Now, producers seek market stability.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

I think this is the big holdout country because Oil Minister Luaibi didn't really want to do the deal in November. He was calling back to his prime minister saying we can't take the second largest cut in OPEC. He's complained about the deal ever since, saying Iraq should've been exempt in the fist place.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

Going to Iraq to shore up support and push not just for six months but to push for nine months is getting the attention of the market. There are rumors that they want out of the deal. They want an exemption like the Iranians.feedback

Peter Cardillo - First Standard Financial

While the headlines of the Trump visit are overshadowing the geopolitical and domestic political concerns, oil prices are moving higher ... on OPEC expectations. We see a cautious trading session ahead as investors warm up to commodities.feedback

Bjarne Schieldrop - SEB Bank

The decision (to extend cuts) seems to be almost a done deal. There seems to be a very high harmony in the group. If you cut production, it's no free lunch. You get something in the short term, but you get a backflip in the medium term, which is more production in 2018 and 2019.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

Getting Iraq on board is going to be interesting….I think Iraq in the end will get on board but they might make it difficult along the way. If you want a price rise they're probably going to have to go deeper. Do you roll over 1.8 million barrels or do you throw in another 500,000? That's how you'd move in significantly higher coming out of OPEC.feedback

Majid Jafar

The key issue is actually what's happening in the U.S. The kickstart of the shale oil production there is faster than anybody thought…, you're seeing it in the rig count, you're seeing it in the cost of production, they can drill wells at a third of the cost and in a third of the time now. The key question not always in focus is China. What's really going on with their growth? Indian growth of oil demand is even faster than China's now. There needs to be a little more focus on the demand side as well to truly get a view of the overall picture.feedback

Alvin Tan

Last week was all about U.S. uncertainty but we have had a reminder that Europe still has plenty of uncertainty too.feedback

Monica Malik - Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank

The fiscal situation is going to remain challenging, especially in the context of an economy that has slowed. The government is going to have to pick up spending to support growth and diversify the economy, and for this it needs high revenues. They need to see oil prices at the very least at current levels.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

A positive opening call comes after a Wall Street relief rally on Friday suggested investors putting last week's political chaos behind them. Asian counterparts have also made a solid start to the week, buoyed by continued optimism towards Oil and Thursday's OPEC meeting delivering a production cut extension and a hitherto un-eventful Trump visit to the Middle East.feedback

Asim Jihad

The two ministers will discuss boosting bilateral relations and the upcoming OPEC decision to help boost global prices and reduce the glut in the market.feedback

Mohammed Barkindo

What we did is history. It's a complete turnaround, a new chapter. Bringing a broad coalition of global producers to agree on supply adjustments…that's the way forward.feedback

Jamie Webster

OPEC's attempt to regain power via a super-OPEC may be a smart strategic move. It's hardly the recipe for a strong organization that can effectively exert itself through market downs and ups.feedback

James Woods - Rivkin Securities

The potential for deepening cuts remains limited... (as) officials are likely to monitor the impact of an extension of the cuts before they resort to such action.feedback

Michael Cohen

It's been our contention that they'll roll over their cuts and compliance may not be as high during the summer when a lot of the OPEC countries have summer demand needs. It's going to be very difficult for many of these OPEC countries, especially Saudi Arabia to agree to extend the cuts beyond the December time frame without an agreement from other non OPEC countries to comply. I think it's got to be difficult for countries like Russia and Kazakhstan to agree to keep their output under wraps.feedback

Tony Atti

Interest rates inched up, which satisfies those who own the bank stocks, gives you hope [that] maybe there are a couple rate hikes coming. Deere put up such good numbers this morning that anything related not just to agriculture but to construction equipment soared. The oils came alive with pleasure over OPEC short-selling badmouthing and natural gas garnered fans thanks to the heat.feedback

Richard Mallinson - Energy Aspects

I don't think it does on its own. I think we're heading in that direction with the OPEC deal and rebalancing more widely but in terms of Iran the question is now really can its exports grow from current levels, can they stay at current levels or do they actually fall back? If the deal collapses they fall back - not all the way down to the 2012/2015 levels but they would have to come off a bit as some European buyers would get more nervous.feedback

Amrita Sen

People were impatient and thought we'd start drawing 10 million barrels a day since the first week of January. We're still in excess, and there's lots of inventory around.feedback

Chris Bake - Vitol

This 550 million barrel-plus inventory build of crude and products that started in 2014 is still very much there. How much is going to come out? That is an ongoing debate among all of us.feedback

Geoff Dennis - UBS

After being the best-performing EM sector in 2016 (up 32.5 percent versus up 8.5 percent for MSCI GEMs), Energy has fallen right to the bottom of the EM sector performance rankings this year, with a gain of only 4.9 percent, while MSCI GEMs is up 16.2 percent. We would not lose faith in the EM Energy sector. We stay overweight and advise investors to selectively re-build positions in the sector.feedback

Neil Atkinson - Lloyds Bank

If, as a scenario and not a forecast, the current (OPEC) output cuts were to be extended for the rest of 2017, oil stocks would start to fall quite sharply… but because they are falling from such a great height, they won't get down to the five-year average until much later in the year and possibly not then.feedback

Greg McKenna

The fall in stockpiles undershot the expectation of a 2.36-million draw.feedback

Gina Sanchez

If you look at it, Saudi Arabia is over 100 percent of the compliance, and everybody else is kind of cheating a little. And that's the story with OPEC – supplies just aren't coming down.feedback

Yemi Osinbajo

At the moment it would be very difficult, but not impossible. I can't see a path to that kind of outcome, but this is Nigeria.feedback

Sandy Fielden - Morningstar

We expect that momentum to continue when (Dakota Access Pipeline) opens and as more Permian production hits Corpus Christi docks. Early May spot prices showed both Brent and Dubai trading at around a $3 per barrel premium to Brent and WTI Cushing, which is an open window.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

The numbers beneath the surface were rather mixed with gasoline stocks falling only slightly on weaker demand and sharply higher imports suggesting sufficient availability of crude oil internationally despite OPEC cuts.feedback

Mike Wittner - Société Générale

It's something they've been thinking about - these two countries, and others - all along. They knew they needed to support prices but then the U.S. producers would see that and there would be an investment and supply response. The bottom line - these two countries are acting in their own self-interest. Their own self interest is higher prices , and their own self-interests coincide.feedback

Daniel Yergin

You can certainly say a lot of shale today will be competitive between $40 and $50 a barrel. The question mark is what's going to happen to costs. We do think the costs this year in the Permian will go up 15 to 20 percent. Rising costs will temper activity somewhat.feedback

Mike Wittner - Société Générale

We expected big stock draw downs in the second half and we still expected big stock draws in the second half. We think we get to around $60 [WTI] in the fourth quarter…There may be a little downside on the fact that draws are happening more slowly than we thought.feedback

Francisco Blanch - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Basically U.S. supply is coming on faster than we anticipated. Now you have a higher inventory level to begin with, and a slower decline. That means in our view, prices are likely to be lower on average. I think it's pretty risky to deepen the cuts when they'll be losing market share to shale. It feels to me that Saudi, Russia, and even the U.S., everyone needs $60 oil. The problem is you can't have the quantities and the prices.feedback

Edward Morse - Citigroup Global Markets

We don't think U.S. production is going to stop the re-balancing of the market this year. We think next year will be more problematic.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

Other plays still remain on the sidelines in this $50 environment. When we were growing at a million barrels in the U.S., it wasn't Permian. It was Bakken and Eagle Ford. The other thing about shale is it has a very high decline rate. The shale did come back stronger. Rigs are returning and for now it remains largely a Permian story.feedback

Edward Morse - Citigroup Global Markets

I think this market will re-balance itself very quickly. The extension alone should result in deeper cuts.feedback

Neil Atkinson - Lloyds Bank

We think the rebalancing is here and the rebalancing will continue.feedback

James Woods - Rivkin Securities

The pressure is now on officials to deliver on these pledges. As we have seen over the past six months, rising U.S. production and record inventories have kept upside limited and a nine month extension at this stage is unlikely to break that.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

I think people will wait to see what happens at the May 25 meeting, because there could be some countries like Iraq that could say, We want to bring on more production. We may extend until the end of the year, but we're not signing up going into 2018. So the details are not finalized yet. This has been a long time coming, and what's interesting is I think the Russians have friends on all sides in the Middle East.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

You have this new world order with Saudi and Russia. This is not a one off that Russia got involved in OPEC…It's not like Russia joined OPEC but you have this new framework. Putin's influence in the Middle East has done nothing but soar, as [the U.S.] pulled back.feedback

Chris Weafer - Eurasia Group

We have the Russians supporting not just OPEC but mainly Saudi Arabia. To extend the production cuts is being pushed by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. For him, he wants the Aramco IPO to be successful and for that he needs $55 oil. I think that's why this deal has been pushed. For Russia, It's good politics.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

For the bulls to regain the full upper hand, a close over $50 is what we need.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

Extending the cuts until March 2018 would take account of the fact that demand in the first quarter of a year is lowest for seasonal reasons. That said, we are skeptical about Russia's willingness to actively participate in any extended cuts.feedback

Alexander Novak

We believe that the extension at least until the first of April next year, is reasonable in order to continue our joint efforts to stabilise the market.feedback

Khalid al-Falih

We've come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended, we will not reach the desired inventory level by end of June.feedback

James Butterfill

Every time oil tests that level…you see clients trading around it. Every time it goes below that $50 a barrel level, it's a buying opportunity and roughly when it hits about $50, we see a lot of selling at that point. Every time Saudi Arabia or OPEC try to manipulate oil prices they're being undermined by the United States.feedback

William Jackson - Capital Economics

The news that there's been a consensus on extending the OPEC cuts has provided some support to oil prices and some of the oil currencies such as the rouble. Maybe that has spread through to a more general improvement in sentiment towards emerging markets.feedback

Khalid al-Falih

There has been a marked reduction to the inventories, but we're not where we want to be in reaching the five-year average. We've come to the conclusion that the agreement needs to be extended.feedback

Virendra Chauhan

I think OPEC and Russia recognise that in order to get the market back on their side they will need 'shock and awe' tactics where they need to go above and beyond a simple extension of the deal. The market will also be looking at export cuts and not just production cuts, which is what is required to rebalance the market.feedback

Richard Mallinson - Energy Aspects

What they looked to do is send a positive surprise by exceeding market expectations.feedback

Oystein Berentsen - OPEC

Saudi and Russia are clearly working closely together. Saudi seems very determined to push oil prices higher by making this joint statement now.feedback

Matt Stanley - Freight Investor Services

With the U.S. rig count increasing for its 17th consecutive week, I think we can safely say that the crude oil battle is well and truly on.feedback

Eugen Weinberg - Commerzbank

The fairly short-lived effect of production cuts on oil prices shows that OPEC's market impact via 'supply control' is very limited. We have been pointing out for years that OPEC has lost its 'pricing power'. Even so, OPEC is unlikely to throw in the towel already and make another U-turn, but will extend the agreement instead.feedback

Alan McIntosh

The relentless increase in U.S. shale supply has offset the production cuts that OPEC and Russia agreed and so there is still a scepticism within supply and demand balance.feedback

Greg McKenna

We saw the biggest draw in (U.S.) inventories for the year last week with stockpiles down more than 5 million barrels, and it looks like OPEC's production cut is finally biting.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

I think they had a hard time getting this deal together, and I don't particularly think that most of the OPEC countries want to cut any more. Now they're going to cut another couple thousand [barrels]? And how are they going to divvy that up?feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

I don't think there's huge risk of a really big plummet because so much of the net length has already been taken out of the market.feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

I think OPEC is in a very delicate balancing act, focusing not only on price, but market share and global inventories as well. There could be reluctance to deepen the cuts because then they really lose market share. They know for their own credibility's sake they have to at least extend the cuts. The question is what sort of sneaking will be done on the sidelines, because everyone still wants market share. It's kind of like the boy who cried wolf. We're all a bit savvier this time around.feedback

Howard Gruenspecht

Increased drilling rig activity is expected to boost to U.S. crude oil production this year and next, with forecast production in 2018 averaging 10 million barrels per day. Higher oil production from the United States, along with rising oil output from Canada and Brazil, is expected to curb upward pressure on global oil prices through the end of 2018.feedback

Konstantinos Venetis

OPEC's output cuts will most probably be extended at the May 25 meeting, yet things do not look so rosy for the cartel beyond the near term. Come 2018 OPEC members will be hard pressed to choose between maintaining a price floor and protecting market share, unless global demand is surprisingly brisk.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

It's pretty apparent that any sustained rise back above $55 will get more and more shale online. Also, we should start to see Dakota Access pipeline and other infrastructure improvements liberate more and more U.S. barrels. We have only just started to see the real rebound in shale.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

Soothing words from Saudi Arabia about extending the production cut deal, possibly into 2018, supported prices.feedback

Naeem Aslam - AvaTrade

In order for us to have any faith in the current upward move, we need to see the price breaking the level of 48.32 and also its 200-day moving average. As long as we are staying below the 200-day moving average, we think the floor is open towards the downside and we may test the support at 42.18.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

We're five months into this deal, almost six, and we're just not seeing a whole lot of progress being made. They're just out of bullets verbally and in actuality.feedback

Alexander Novak

Russia is in solidarity with the efforts of our partners to rebalance the market and considers that the joint initiative to stabilise the world oil market is currently effective. We are discussing different options and consider that an extension for a longer period will help to speed up the return of the markets to a healthier condition.feedback

Adeeb Al-Aama

There's a growing conviction that a six-month extension may be needed to rebalance the market, but the length of the extension is not firm yet.feedback

Mark Watkins - U.S. Bank

What you're going to have to see is global supply across the world drop and U.S. crude ship out before you start to see a meaningful drop in U.S. inventories.feedback

Mark Watkins - U.S. Bank

As long as U.S. producers are able to pump oil at a profit then the rebalancing in the U.S. is going to take time. It's going to be an extended period of time still. I would look to at least the end of the year. And that's something that's started a little bit, but it's pretty marginal.feedback

Tamar Essner - Corporate Solutions

The single biggest factor underpinning the bull case for oil has been the OPEC cuts and the belief that this would meaningfully reduce global inventories and, critically, that the cuts would be extended for the second half of the year.feedback

Michael Tran - RBC Capital Markets

People often reverse-engineer an explanation. But, I think the velocity of the move this week stems from China and its liquidity tightening. That spooked the market across all commodities. It's a commodities story rather than oil-specific.feedback

Matt Smith

It's all about this meeting on May 25, and so they'll be going into that meeting knowing that they have cut exports by far more than they said they would. [They'll] go in there and bang the table and try to get everyone else in line.feedback

Robert Halver - Baader Bank

The opinion polls definitely have not reflected reality in recent times and last year. But in the case of France, the belief among stock exchange traders here is very clear – Mr Macron will win the election. We can't exclude the risk that Madam Le Pen will make it, but the likelihood clearly is that it will be Macron, and the stock exchange is happy about that!feedback

Neil Beveridge

So far Opec's strategy to draw down inventories has not worked.... It seems obvious to us that Opec will need to keep the cuts in place for longer than the next six months if their strategy is to have any chance of success.feedback

Anthony Grisanti

While fracking has come back I don't see production from them increasing much more from these levels–banks won't finance those operations like they used to–and as the price falls some of those new wells become unprofitable once more.feedback

Miswin Mahesh - Barclays

We expect fundamentals to improve over Q2, but the path to rebalancing may not be fully clear for the market without some data cleansing. Overall for Q2, our balances show a stock-draw of 1.2 million barrels a day. We expect North American supplies to grow 600,000 barrels a day year-on-year in Q2, but this is offset by fall in supplies elsewhere in non-OPEC.feedback

Christopher Haines - BMI Research

US production will grow, though likely not as strongly as many people are expecting. While drilling has been strong, we have yet to see the same level of activity in completing wells, which will limit the aggressiveness of growth.feedback

Jim Ritterbusch - Ritterbusch & Associates

The energy complex is slowly succumbing to an opinion that this year's OPEC production cuts have been ineffective. We feel that the (OPEC) cartel has come to a fork in the road in which the current agreement will be abandoned or steps will need to be taken to double down on current efforts by increasing production curtailments.feedback

Quincy Krosby - Prudential Financial

OPEC is going to continue the cuts. The question is, is that enough to keep oil prices at a level that is good for business and for producers? Today it has helped to the overall turn on the markets.feedback

Adeeb Al-Aama

There's an emerging consensus among participating countries on the need to extend the production agreement reached last year.feedback

Eugen Weinberg - Commerzbank

Despite a possible extension of the OPEC agreement… prices are likely to continue their slide in Q2 and I see higher chances of them dropping below $45 than rising above $55.feedback

Harry Tchilinguirian - BNP Paribas

There is an obvious compelling fundamental reason to extend cuts given the inventory objective–these are simply not declining fast enough (as acknowledged by Saudi Arabia and other producers) even if we were to account for seasonal factors that limit crude oil demand like refinery maintenance. Right now, it is all about supply and not demand.feedback

Victor Shum - IHS

OPEC producers have under-estimated the volumes to be taken off the market. The drawdown in the U.S. inventories is not going to be fast and furious. Ultimately, the objective is to support prices. Gulf producers need money to balance the budget. That's a strong incentive to cut more than they have.feedback

Adeeb Al-Aama

There's an emerging consensus among participating countries on the need to extend the production agreement reached last year. Based on today's data, there's a growing conviction that a six-month extension may be needed to rebalance the market, but the length of the extension is not firm yet.feedback

Michael Hewson - CMC Markets

The FTSE100 was held back by a collapse in crude oil prices to their lowest levels since last November, on the back of concerns about slowing demand from China, rising US output, and a reticence on the part of Russia to commit to extending the quota cap into the end of this year.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

A negative opening call comes after oil took yet another leg lower on heightened concerns about global oversupply, whether OPEC and Russia can agree to extend production cuts this month to offset rising US production. Off their worst overnight levels, much damage has been done, with 9-month Oil price uptrends and 2017 lows meaningful breached.feedback

Oystein Berentsen - OPEC

This collapse seems to be due to stops being hit. However I feel it is a bit strange so close to (an) OPEC...meeting where a rollover seems likely.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

Negative sentiment has perhaps been tempered by Trump claiming a small victory in getting his healthcare bill through the House of Representatives (just; tight vote). While this is a step towards tax reform and other stimulus, Senate approval is sure to prove tricky and could prove a bridge too far in terms of concrete legislative approval for the new President.feedback

Michael Hewson - CMC Markets

This was later clarified by the Russian energy minister who said the OPEC cuts deal should be extended, a little late in the day it has to be said, though probably nothing to do with the fact that prices closed at their worst levels in five months, maybe.feedback

James Woods - Rivkin Securities

Oil prices tumbled amid concerns over rising U.S. production despite the high probability that OPEC members will agree to extend production cuts when they meet on May 25th, lthough any likelihood of an increase in the level of cuts remains slim with OPEC officials playing down this possibility.feedback

Tapas Strickland

In the words of ABBA, it seems U.S. shale oil production is presenting a Waterloo moment for OPEC.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

It is the growth-dependent commodities like industrial metals that have really had the biggest problem over the last 48 hours, and that is all because of softer data out of China. The spending on infrastructure in 2016 is starting to fade, and banks are raising lending rates. There are signs that 'speculative longs' are throwing in the towel. God help the market if there is no deal.feedback

Zhong Zhenhgsheng

Investors should be cautious about downward risks in the economy.feedback

Zhong Zhenhgsheng

We think we could see falls in house sales of 15pc or 20pc in the second half.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

The bears are in control of this market. My base case is that they extend the cut at current levels, but I think the chances of them doing a deeper cut are higher than a non-extension scenario. No one wins in 30 below conditions.feedback

Michael Cohen

The drilling activity has been very robust, and a lot of that has come from non-publicly reporting companies and started to see evidence that publicly reporting companies were adding rigs. We would expect a topping off of the rig count in the next several months.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

I think the market is telling us without a guaranteed extension, we have too much oil around. Once we get the guarantee of six months, we'll see if the market really ignores it. Are they putting their foot back in the trap? They're getting gmore aggressive about ramping up their drilling with all that production they're bringing on. If it wasn't for the reduction in supply coming in from the global producers, instead of $50 oil, you could be talking $30.feedback

Michael Cohen

We expected this time of the year to be a weak for demand. We're not into driving season yet so we see this a temporary correction lower but we maintain our bullish stance for Q3, especially if OPEC maintains its cuts. If anything, this type of price environment gets all the deal makers to the table, more so than if it was at $55 or $60.feedback

Eric Lee - Citigroup Global Markets

We're going to see if the overhang from the first quarter wears off. We think the OPEC cuts are pretty substantial and they help re-balancing the market by drawing down inventories. If markets are unconvinced the cuts can meaningfully tighten the market, part of it is because they've been looking at first quarter.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

I think there's a consensus view that the glut is slimming down, but ... it is at a painstakingly slow pace that makes a glacier look like a rocket.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

People keep forecasting that global inventories are going to come down, but so far, they haven't for the most part.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

The problem is that gasoline demand in the U.S. certainly appears to be off compared to last year, and if we don't pull gasoline inventories during the driving season, what it means is we're just turning the crude oil surplus into a petroleum products surplus.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

The market continues to hunt for a bottom. We've dropped to a five month low. We still have a near record overhang and signs of increasing production in areas of the world outside the producers that agreed to the cuts.feedback

Abhishek Kumar - Interfax

While the cartel is expected to extend a self-imposed production cap by another six months, it will be a challenge to convince several non-OPEC members to follow suit, Persistent growth in US oil production ... will also make extensions of the OPEC cap beyond 2017 unlikely.feedback

Eugen Weinberg - Commerzbank

At some point, the market should recognize OPEC isn't the most important player in the market any more. That is non-OPEC, and, above all, U.S. shale. Still, the damage is there and I wouldn't be surprised to see lower levels this summer after the meeting.feedback

Rich Ross - Evercore ISI

It's not pretty here in the short term, examining a chart of the ETF.feedback

Gina Sanchez

I do think it's going to be a challenging road for oil, and we seem to just continue to be on a roller coaster that bottoms at $40, and tops out at $55. And we can't seem to get off of this roller-coaster ride. We are probably going to see OPEC cuts hold, but we are seeing less and less compliance, and that's going to be a challenge.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

(U.S.) production growth has slowed during the past couple of weeks. If continued today it may also add some glimmer of hope for the bulls, who increasingly have been losing patience.feedback

Tamas Varga

The API statistics are helping the market recover, but the underlying sentiment is still bearish.feedback

Mike van Dulken - Accendo Markets

Australia's ASX is down almost 1pc as miners are hurt by fresh China jitters putting base metals prices back into reverse while precious metals remain under pressure. Energy took another hit from global oversupply concerns although a US API inventory drawdown has brought prices off their lows as has some positive OPEC extension comments from Nigeria.feedback

Harold Hamm

We're about two weeks from school being out, people on vacation. We'll see those invents come down.feedback

Brian Gilvary - BP

If OPEC cuts roll into the second half of the year we anticipate crude oil stocks would get back into the top end of the historical range. I wouldn't describe it as being majorly bullish, but it would certainly firm up and underpin prices from where they are today. If you look at total stocks right now, they are starting to decline. If the OPEC cuts get rolled into the second half of the year that will underpin oil prices. If they don't get rolled into the second half of the year we will continue to see more volatility.feedback

Brian Gilvary - BP

From BP's perspective we're managing things around $50-55 a barrel, that's probably the range we would expect for the rest of the year.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

It's going to be tough for that PR machine to really get something going before the actual meeting takes place.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

The market continues to hunt for a bottom. With four months of the cutting in effect we haven't seen a sizable reduction in global oil fuel inventories. It's not sizable enough to see some proof, and the market is having trouble holding most of its gains since 2016.feedback

Fadel Gheit - Oppenheimer Holdings

Their attitude is, We can't control the price, so we might as well keep producing because we desperately need the cash flow.feedback

Fadel Gheit - Oppenheimer Holdings

The bids and asks [between buyers and sellers] have never been wider, because a few years ago we had $110 oil, and last year we had $27 oil. Which is the real price? They can't agree.feedback

Jarand Rystad

We see a risk for a weaker oil price towards the end of the year … because shale is delivering so much oil and OPEC might fight back. A volume war is if they do not extend the production cuts and bring all the fields back into production.feedback

Giorgos Beleris - Thomson Reuters

Key Middle East producers seem willing to cap crude output for another six months, hoping to see crude prices close or above the $60 a barrel mark.feedback

Daniela Corsini - Intesa Sanpaolo

Revival of U.S. production is having a negative impact on crude prices. However, in recent weeks this negative influence has been offset by expectations that more consumption from refiners ahead of the driving season will draw U.S. stocks.feedback

Abhishek Kumar - Interfax

Growing oil production in the U.S. will remain a deterrent to further extensions to the output cap by OPEC and non-OPEC countries ... (and) once again reinvigorate debate on defending market share among countries participating in the deal.feedback

Wang Tao - Reuters

Brent oil looks neutral in a range of $51.30-$52.32 per barrel.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

It is clear that the world has plenty of oil in stock, making OPEC's life that much harder ahead of its June production cut rollover date.feedback

Patrick Pouyanne - Total

For us, this is a new era. During the last few years, 2015, 2016, we have not been able to take more capex (capital spending). Now we have room, we have more cash.feedback

Oswald Clint

No question Total is through the worst of it and in a sweet spot.feedback

Georgi Slavov - Marex Spectron Group

Supply of crude is likely to decline over next three weeks (to mid-May), which will support the market and create the conditions for a rebound in prices.feedback

Sukrit Vijayakar

Not only did the American Petroleum Institute report a crude build ... it also reported a 4.4 million barrel build in gasoline inventories, which is a massive build at this time of the year.feedback

Stephen Schork

OPEC has failed miserably in its endeavour to balance the oil market.feedback

David Seaburg - Cowen and Company

You still have supply growth that's overhanging the market, and the OPEC tailwind is being overshadowed by that, referring to the tug of war between OPEC production cuts and increasing U.S. supply. On the [trading] desk, we're seeing nothing but sellers in all these names, and especially the winners. I think even the bulls are capitulating here.feedback

Lukman Otunuga

The resurgence of U.S shale continues to sabotage the cartel's efforts to stabilise the saturated markets.feedback

Khalid al-Falih

There is consensus building, but it's not done yet. We are talking to all countries. We have not reached an agreement for sure, but the consensus is building.feedback

Mohammad bin Hamad al-Rumhy

The number of countries that are supporting the extension I think would be quite high, per centage-wise.feedback

Essam al-Marzouq

We have a noticeable increase in compliance from non-OPEC, which shows the importance of extending the agreement. Compliance from Russia is very good. Everyone will continue on the same level.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

OPEC seems more like a magician who is keeping the audience's attention fixed firmly on his hands (its production policy) while the actual trick takes place elsewhere (non-OPEC supply).feedback

Robert Yawger - Mizuho Securities USA

If they're (OPEC) so busy complying, how come we're taking so much extra inventory? Why is the whole curve in free-fall when supplies are supposedly tightening?feedback

Jamie Webster

If stocks are still rising strongly, you've still got an oversupplied situation. It doesn't make sense for OPEC to pat itself on the back for strong compliance. That's what they agreed to, not what the impact is.feedback

Essam al-Marzouq

Russia is on board preliminarily ... Compliance from Russia is very good. Everyone will continue on the same level.feedback

Ammar Al Hakim

But we are with the principle of reducing the overall OPEC supply to lift prices.feedback

Ammar Al Hakim

Given these sensitive circumstances, it is the right of Iraq to hope for an exemption by the other OPEC member states and have an opportunity to increase its production.feedback

Art Cashin

The oil prices haven't fully kicked in down here. If oil breaks $50 here, I think it's going to be going to center stage.feedback

Mike Wittner - Société Générale

That tug of war in the mind of the market is bullish OPEC cuts, bearish U.S. recovery. That's still the market driver.feedback

Gene McGillian - Tradition Energy

There's a lot of talk the [OPEC] agreement is going to be extended, but we have a full month to go before the [OPEC] talks are held. I think the real thing is without signs the production cuts are really impacting global inventories the market has trouble holding up near the upper end of the trading range. The market has a hard time sustaining itself within striking distance of the year's highs.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

There was a big jump in refinery utilization. We went from 91 percent to 92.9 percent. We're approaching full capacity when you start getting up around these numbers. It's bearish for gasoline in particular, to the extent the end product value comes down and pulls down the price of oil with it. The fact we're only down a million barrels on crude in the face of the refinery run rate speaks to how well supplied we continue to be. There was a misperception out there that when the refinery runs are finally cranked back up that you'd see these crude oil inventories plummet, and that's not the case.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

We've gotten down pretty quickly to test $50 support. It's been sticky … the big number to watch is $47. If we break that we're going to go to $42 and touch the November lows.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

[Wednesday's] crude drawdown was not as large as expected. There was also a large jump in refinery capacity utilization ahead of the peak summer driving season. That's weighing on the perception of the [EIA] report. That's another bearish sign for oil prices.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

In other words, production of these refined products is expected to rise, increasing inventories.feedback

Kemi Adeosun

I'm not sure that I agree that OPEC is the reason that we will get out of recession. We will get out of recession because we are following the right type of policies. Our objective is not just to get out of recession, our objective is to grow and grow sustainably. I'm confident that all the players involved know that we need stability.feedback

Kemi Adeosun

We very much are benefitting from the improved oil price, you know it went as low as $28 a barrel. So the region that it is in at the moment, it gives us the ability to plan. What we didn't need was volatility, we need much more stability which the OPEC deal has given us.feedback

Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo

We are giving the implementation process the top priority that it deserves because our credibility is at stake… I can tell you that we are very committed to complying fully with the voluntary decisions that we took and so far so good.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

Is sentiment on the oil market now taking a negative turn again? Looking at the latest price reactions, one might conclude that the only reason for the previous price rise was the expectation of further production cuts on the part of OPEC. After all, the oil price has stopped reacting to the factors which would normally support it ever since the Saudi oil minister (Khalid) al-Falih put at least something of a dampener on such expectations.feedback

Sukrit Vijayakar

Unless the (EIA) data shows something drastically different, this report should cause a severe dent in the bullish case (for oil prices).feedback

Noman Ali - Manulife Asset Management

Energy has been a drag in Canada, mainly on concerns around increased U.S. production out of the U.S. shale names and some uncertainty around the OPEC decision in May.feedback

Alexander Kornilov - Aton

The rouble has let the (oil) companies down - the first-quarter results will be worse because of the strong rouble.feedback

Andreas Fibig

That's the reason why we went into that kind of technology. What everybody wants now in the U.S. ... is a clean label, so not too many chemicals on the label. And that's something which helps us to facilitate that market trend.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

(The) Saudi Arabian production reduction appears to be ahead of forecast and gave oil a boost.feedback

Michelle McGrade

There are some conflicting forces out there. There's OPEC and there's U.S. shale gas and oil. U.S. is making shale oil like crazy and therefore the supply is greater than demand.feedback

Michael Cohen

We're still of the view that we're going to see a sharp price rally at some point occur in this quarter, and we believe inventories continue to be drawn down.feedback

Michael Cohen

Now you're kind of placing a wedge between the key players because of this [U.S.] policy. The question is whether oil policy can be separate from economic or national security policy. I think it aligns in some places and it's a concern in other places. In history there have been many cases where OPEC countries were at each other's throats, but they were able to come to a deal.feedback

Ryan McKay - TD Securities

We're seeing encouraging inventory reports. They've been building much less.feedback

Michael Cohen

What really matters are three people – [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani , [Saudi Deputy Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Salman and President Putin. If you figure out their positions, then you have a good idea of what's going to happen. I haven't seen a quote from any of those three lately.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

You have to question whether the Syrian situation has now become a proxy that divides them more than the low oil prices united them. So that's a big deal here. The real test is going to come as we get to these warmer months and do the Saudis ramp up production to meet their internal demand. On the surface, it will look like Saudi production is spiking. These are the easy days to comply with the deal. But the hard days are coming.feedback

Michael Cohen

For the geopolitical situation you could bend bearish or bullish. When you have Iran and Saudi Arabia now in even further conflict, and also Iran and Russia in alignment on one side of the U.S. and Saudis, and Russia not seeing eye to eye on Syria, it complicates the ability of those OPEC ministers and Russia to have an amicable outcome. That could be bearish.feedback

Michael Cohen

OPEC wants to rip off the Band-Aid as soon as possible, and allow the prices to move back up to the $60 range on the force of the market alone. They realize they can't do that if the deal stays in place and they all have to comply. Eventually the compliance is going to show that certain countries are bearing more of the burdens than others.feedback

Michael Cohen

They see rig count increase in the United States and forecasts by a bunch of tight oil producers that production should be higher ... so at some point the question of whether they continue this is going to hinge on whether OPEC wants to continue seceding market share ... to non-OPEC producers.feedback

Michelle McGrade

This is the worrying thing…Not only these countries but also our oil majors as well. They need oil around…somewhere between $65 and $75 a barrel and once they get there that whole industry will relax - but it's just not getting there.feedback

Stephen Jones

Having been through their own recession, U.S. exploration and production companies – and those focused on shale – are now able to operate in a lower oil price environment.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

We're coming out of refinery maintenance season, so, we're going to start to see draws of the U.S. inventory - those high U.S. inventory numbers have really been depressing prices. If you are sovereign head of state in one of these oil producing countries, you fear more than anything a price reversal back into the $40s or the $30s.feedback

Phil Flynn

There are a few geopolitical problems at the moment. On top of that, Libya isn't producing oil, so that's adding to the bullish side of the market.feedback

Tariq Zahir

U.S. shale is going to continue to weigh on market. With refineries coming out of maintenance season, maybe we'll see some real strength around here soon.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

We see it grinding higher over the back half of the year, recently. . If these strikes are not followed up by a serious effort to oust the Syrian leader [Bashar Assad], none of these scenarios may materialize and the oil implications will remain negligible. However, given that President Trump had previously signaled deep disdain for humanitarian interventions and Middle Eastern military engagements, we are now in uncharted waters.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

We see that 1.8 million barrel a day OPEC, Non-OPEC coordinated cut. We see them rolling that over for another six months. That's why we are constructive going into the back half of the year.feedback

Shakil Begg - Thomson Reuters

Speculation that global crude supply is tightening has led to firmer prices this week but Thomson Reuters oil research indicates actual crude shipments from Opec remain steady with exports for both February and March near levels since last November, after a seasonal dip in January.feedback

Ben Luckock - Trafigura

Contango is a very basic play. It's lazy. But I think you've seen contango has come out of the market.feedback

Jean-François Lambert

The traders picked the right time to sell. If you have an opportunity to sell assets to lighten your balance sheet without losing control then you do it.feedback

David Wech - JBC Energy

While over the next couple of months backwardation may temporarily come back ... we see a strong comeback of U.S. shale supplies joining in on many long-planned supply additions in the Atlantic Basin.feedback

Owain Johnson - CME Group

What really matters is the difference between the bid and the ask. The more you can narrow the bid/ask - the cheaper it is for companies to hedge and that makes a huge difference.feedback

Sukrit Vijayakar

The immediate reason for the move was an unplanned production outage in the North Sea.feedback

Pierre Andurand - Andurand Capital Management

I think oil prices are likely to recover to around $70 … I think the market will switch to backwardation – sustainable backwardation – by late summer and that will bring the next wave in oil prices. I don't think Trump has much impact on oil supply and demand for now. If there is going to be a big change it's going to be with Iran - if he puts sanctions back on Iran.feedback

Pierre Andurand - Andurand Capital Management

U.S. shale producers have been hedging a lot of their production, capping prices, so the improvements in fundamentals were not priced in at all, but I believe that now when people will really see that inventories are going down fast, that eventually the fundamentals will win and prices will go higher.feedback

William Baruch - iiTrader

Oil prices are going to be heading lower. Right now, we're just seeing a relief rally. Oil's back above $50. … The bulls are liking it, but this newly found downtrend is going to resume.feedback

William Baruch - iiTrader

I expect to see production pick up about 100,000 barrels per day in each month going into the summer, and that's going to add quite a bit of oil, as we're already 400,000 barrels per day ahead of where we were in November when OPEC cut, at 9.1 million barrels per day right now.feedback

Gina Sanchez

The energy slump that we saw really was about natural gas, not about oil, because oil was actually doing reasonably well, and we had very a high compliance within OPEC. So everybody was reasonably positive on oil stocks, while natural gas got hit by the double whammy; they went into the winter with huge stockpiles, and then the winter was very warm, and so we had very low demand, and that's what really killed the energy sector.feedback

Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking ahead of the weekend after the strong gains in recent days. The expected rise in the U.S. rig count later today provides some arguments to sell at last.feedback

Fatih Birol - International Energy Agency

If we see the prices go up as a result of any push from the producer ...we will see more oil coming to the market, not just from the U.S.; we will also see Brazilian and Canadian oil coming to the market.feedback

Stephen Brennock

Opec is now facing the prospect of falling short of its objective. Bulging global oil stockpiles will not draw down to the five-year average unless Opec-led cuts are extended.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

I think there's going to be strength in crude oil prices because over the next couple of weeks, we're going to continue to hear rhetoric from OPEC members wanting to extend their production cuts for the balance of 2017, and I think that's going to happen. Otherwise, the market would continue to be pressured under $50, which is not what they want.feedback

Steven DeSanctis

We think the pullback in crude oil and even natural gas has created an opportunity for energy to outperform going forward. OPEC continues to indicate that they are going to hold to production cuts and with demand and supply coming into balance in the back half of the year, oil prices should head higher. We think the infrastructure spending that the market was very excited about last year may take much longer to deliver, and thus these stocks have gotten ahead of themselves.feedback

Mike Wittner - Société Générale

The bottom line is imports edging lower and exports edging higher. That's all positive for crude, not to mention crude runs. This is what's going to turn the U.S. crude stocks situation around. Net imports and crude runs going up. ... Imports on their own should be edging down and exports should be increasing. Put the two together. I think it's pretty positive. It's constructive.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

I think when you look at vehicle miles traveled and you look at car sales, we had a funky start to the year.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

There are signs elsewhere that some inventories are getting liquidated, like for storage in South Africa, we're seeing oil come out. We don't see floating storage of crude oil in the North Sea so there are some signs that things may be getting better for OPEC.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

I'm pretty confident we're going to get a run higher in crude and we're going to get a run higher in gasoline. April is going to set the tone in the second quarter.feedback

Andy Lipow - Lipow Oil Associates

What we're now seeing in the U.S. is refinery utilization increasing, as the maintenance season draws to a close. At the same time, there's good demand for gasoline and diesel which is helping get inventories under control. Those product inventories are less than they were this time last year.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

It should be somewhat supportive of [U.S. oil prices] in the short run, particularly if the exports keep up. But it obviously is a challenge for the global market and a renewed threat to OPEC and their designs of keeping prices up. Certainly if it keeps up at this pace, you would think it would help the balance. But we were up again in the lower 48 states in terms of production.feedback

Tom Kloza - Oil Price Information Service

I think April will see considerably higher demand than March, if you throw in the wild card of exports as well as imports, you have enough tinder there to spark an increase in gasoline prices.feedback

Helima Croft - BC Capital

One thing OPEC has to worry about is if they don't extend the production cuts, a lot of that Permian production was hedged when oil was in the mid $50s. Even if we fall back further, that production is coming on.feedback

Andy McConn - Wood Mackenzie

The key message ... is the producers can stick to the plans they originally set out for 2017.feedback

John Kilduff - Again Capital

This is looking like a complete backfiring on OPEC and what they were trying to do.feedback

Christopher Granville

One is the OPEC production restraint deal including with Russia in late November last year, which drove the oil price up to mid-$50 a barrel or higher. And secondly and much more interestingly, hopes for a geopolitical easing of tensions between Russia and the United States, and Europe, with both the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the European mood might become less hostile to Russia, and that hope was based in particular on the prospect back then of Francois Fillon would be the most likely winner of the French Presidential election.feedback

Greg McKenna

That (Libya), along with the Iranian oil minister saying there is likely to be an extension to the production cut deal, helped crude oil rally overnight.feedback

Jeffrey Halley

OPEC and non-OPEC decided to get ahead of the game this weekend, announcing they are reviewing whether the output curb deal should be extended.feedback

Ole Hansen - Saxo Bank

OPEC has used up most of its arsenal of verbal weapons to support the market. One hundred per cent compliance by all is the only tool they have left, and on that account they are struggling.feedback

Jamie Webster

The world has gotten awfully light. It's a nice problem to have, but if you have a coker, the last thing you want is to have a stranded asset.feedback

Alan Bannister - S&P Global

Admittedly, (the current agreement came) at the cost of some member countries to reduce the amount of crude oil they can sell, but I think they will be broadly satisfied that the agreement they came to and the steps they're taking are leading to a higher price than would have been the case otherwise. We're seeing that to a point. The case for an increase in demand in emerging markets is strong, particularly with rising sales of new vehicles and two-wheelers.feedback

Michael McCarthy

The failure of the US Republican party to pass legislation repealing the universal healthcare act may come back to bite markets. The failure of the Obamacare repeal is not economically significant, but a hostile parliament threatens the positive outlook.feedback

Alexander Novak

For today, obviously, this is within the sphere of our questions. The dynamics are positive here, I believe.feedback

Jabar Ali al-Luaibi

The secretary-general of OPEC is making a comprehensive investigation, analysis, of the market ... he may recommend an extension of the declaration and this will be seen by the next OPEC meeting (in May). Any decisions taken unanimously by members of OPEC ... Iraq will be part of the decision and will not be deviating from this.feedback

Bart Melek - TD Securities

It does on the margin allow more of that heavy crude to make it to the refineries, which is a a positive, or be exported. Really we're just talking incremental here. It's not really moving the needle either way. It just assures some of the plans to expend the sands continues and we don't have to use trains. They're expensive, and it's not an efficient way to move crude.feedback