World Economic Forum
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Here at the World Economic Forum in Davos, there's hope that 2017 will be the year that the global economy comes out of the doldrums and also an understanding that policy making in the United States will be critical.
There's always a cycle in life – ups and downs. But I think we need to always feel optimistic, looking forward.
With so many geopolitical shifts taking place, the answers are impossible to predict – but some are deeply concerned about what 2017 might bring.
We've had hopes every year at Davos – they've never come right, and I've been coming here now for 25 years. Two to three years ago we never knew that (Indian) Prime Minister Modi would come, that Brexit would happen, or that President-elect Trump will happen. So, forecasting in Davos is not a very easy thing.
I very much hope that this part of the world – the leaders, the privileged, the rich – will be able this year to include, take care, and solve the problems of the other part of the world. Of the refugees, of the people who come across the seas, and of the kids of Syria – all of those problems that haven't been solved yet, unfortunately.
So there are also big changes on the horizon as you're well aware, we've got a potential pull back from globalisation, it is something we're hearing about a lot here in Davos. How concerned are you about that?
Well, obviously Europe's uncertainty is coming more for the multiplication of elections in Europe, important elections in Europe in 2017, that is where the uncertainty is coming from, but from the economic point of view, I think Europe is gonna have a good year. Not a flamboyant growth, it is going to be a reasonable growth, a moderate growth, waiting for the election to take place, and hopefully with a 2018 which will make a more clear steering on the economy.
He (Trump) could end up being the entrepreneur's entrepreneur. I think if you see the corporate tax getting reduced and less regulation, I think you'll see a lot of capital flow into the US. That kind of capital come (meaning: capital flow) and that kind of growth – the US, just by the size of its market and the size of its economy, will bring the global economy with it.
Is globalisation in retreat? Is Russia going to be the United States' new special relationship? Is the future of the EU, or of NATO even, in jeopardy? These are some of the big questions that have been swirling around the Davos forum this year.
What about Donald Trump then, how do you think he is going to affect the car industry, because he has been quite vocal in that respect.
So I think, in some ways, (Davos) is an incredibly important place to start.
You have to be full of optimism and determination (when fighting causes).
The world's biggest problems will not be solved without business being part of it… (not) without business being concerned about the environment and equality and all those issues.
I was in a meeting at Davos with the President of Rwanda, the President of Ethiopia, the Prime Minister of Sweden… all of whom are committing to putting their work next to the Sustainable Development Goals, so I think Trump will change his mind.
Today, we are facing climate change, and we know this is caused by our use of energy. That is why the Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of clean energy.
They see it in their economic self-interest to do so. And if the United States wants to cede the playing field, they'll be happy to capture as big of a share as they possibly can.
Countries are competing to succeed in this new space. At the same time, Mr. Trump is signaling a kind of fearfulness of America's capacity to succeed in a clean economy.
To make America great again, climate action is very logical. This is a very convincing story for job creation and economic growth.
It was a roll-up-your-sleeves kind of session. The sense was that we need to keep moving action forward, because we don't have time.
Having said that, perhaps he learnt a lot from that (his business failures) – and it was very clever how he got the presidency, PR-wise he did a fantastic job. So let's give him the benefit of the doubt.
If you have only the focus on the United States, with no support for the institutions (such as EU, NATO) that are the glue that keeps the world together – then it will be a very difficult time indeed.
If he's going to run America like a business, then I hope not – because in the real estate business, he was bankrupt, bankrupt, bankrupt.
You don't want to see that now. That would be a catastrophe of untold proportions. I think we should try not to talk ourselves into a trade war and I think we're seeing a lot of that.
One of the greatest things about Davos is that everyone is approachable.
Most countries, including the G-7 and G-20 major economies ... are strongly committed to promoting global trade, and so can help prevent protectionism from spreading.
Then you have to look at the types of stories that are being told when you have these diverse casts, to look at whether it deals with gender issues, or it's dealing with sexuality issues or class issues, … there's still so much to still be dealt with, to be worked on, to be just looked as a whole.
Yet there has been progress made definitely.
No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war. The tapestry of film has become more diverse. I think we also have to look behind the camera. It's become more diverse, but there is still a lot of room for growth, room for growth in both areas and all these areas.
If you provide true medical differentiation coupled with a strong intellectual property position, I think the U.S. will continue to reward this kind of innovation. If you don't offer that then, frankly, I think it is the right thing that prices should come down.
It's going to probably be very difficult to issue legislation on drug pricing.
Clearly, the industry has an obligation to deliver value-creating innovation and it needs to price it at a level that is deemed to be acceptable.
The tweets will be what they will be, but the subject matter of the tweets has been a challenge before the election and I think it will remain a challenge after the election.
I think we are in good position to prove the value of our products but, of course, there will be challenges.
It's very difficult to understand what all those comments and tweets will end up being.
Pricing will remain a challenging issue for those of us who are in the research-based pharmaceutical industry, as well as a challenge for the overall healthcare system in terms of what it can afford.
The new administration has been pretty vocal about supporting innovation. They understand that when you spend money on research and you develop intellectual property there needs to be some level of return for that investment. I believe, based on who the president-elect has put in place around him, that there is a clear understanding of investment and return on investment.
Industry has to price in an empathetic way. Just because you can demonstrate value doesn't mean it is affordable.
The actual capital spending in the industry has declined in this cycle more than any other cycle. We've seen, according to the HIS, almost two trillion dollars now and last year we were about a trillion – almost two trillion – over the last … From 2014 to 2019 five year cycle and that will have a significant impact on the availability of additional capacity in the future.
I gave them one very, very silly game of, like, smiling ridiculously at each other, and talking about their first kiss, or a co-worker they don't like, or how do they like to eat their eggs? Just silly stuff.
She's quite something.
Do I really think we're gonna go back to protectionism? I don't really know yet and I can promise you I'm paying a lot of attention to it because trade matters to us. It's a little too early to press the panic button; we ought to see what ends up happening here.
We may be at a point where globalization is ending.
People just played because they loved to play. You know how we all have prejudices about things, but no. I think everybody wants to play.
It was also an opportunity for me to really tell them about what I'm seeing, because at the end of the day, I'm the one on the ground working with the people.
I think people are shell-shocked after 2016. It is clear we have to deal with lots of issues ourselves ... the UK and U.S. are busy doing their own thing.
We have gone from everyone thinking it was a fantastic story to everyone thinking it's a terrible one. (African countries) are slowly changing, ultimately disciplined by the market. They sooner or later will come around to what the market wants because of the cost of capital.
A combination of politics and populism is continuing to take precedence on a worldwide basis compared to Africa.
Africa has a lot of long-term potential but people are questioning how quickly they can realize that potential so they are not spending as much time on that compared to the rest of the world.
It is clear we have to deal with lots of issues ourselves ... the UK and U.S. are busy doing their own thing.
There's a lack of Africa-centric issues (at Davos). It's a big gulf this year. We are seeing countries which are on the brink of default on debt. If (U.S.) interest rates rise quickly many countries ... will quickly move into insolvency. The knock-on effects will be very substantial.
There are some African countries I'd write off for 15 years. There are 9-10 countries that won't go anywhere but the rest are going to advance.
People like simple stories and the simple story was that commodity prices rose, many African countries did better on the back of that and some people then dressed it up as Africa Rising.
We all should be aware right now that we are going to be living in a world of a strong dollar.
Overall, it probably won't be net positive.
The forces of liberalism, free trade and globalization that have had, and continue to have, such an overwhelmingly positive impact on our world ... are somehow at risk of being undermined.
If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger.
That is going to raise challenges, particularly given the political context.
Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this revolution is going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going to affect everyone.
The idea that we would ban automation as part of an evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part of the discussion.
I think what we're reaching now is a time when we may have to find alternative careers through our lifetime.
The irony is that when more walls show up, it is a good opportunity for services companies to help do business across those walls.
Jeff Dean would periodically come up to me and say 'look, the computer made a picture of a cat' and I said 'OK that's very nice Jeff' … and fast forward a few years and now Brain probably touches every single one of our main projects. This kind of revolution in deep nets has been very profound and definitely surprised me even though I was right inside there … it's an incredible time. What can these things do? We don't really know the limits.
Inflation is slowing down in general, not only at a single group. As long as inflation continues to surprise, the trend is for the central bank to keep its current pace of rate cuts.
What we're doing is setting out very clearly for people what the position will be.
I'm optimistic, I anticipate, I expect we'll be able tonegotiate a good deal. But we're not going to sign up to a bad deal.
If we look at free trade and globalization, I'm a promoter of free trade, I believe in free trade. I believe that it brings economic growth and prosperity. And globalization does.
But it must accept that some people they do feel like they have been left behind.
If we can find more opportunities like that (Saudi), we are building a safer world for our investments.
I see that the Saudi government believes in itself. If you see such confidence, investors will believe in this too.
I'll be very clear about this, I'm not a fan of getting rid of Dodd-Frank, from the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
But if we're at a solid 3 percent growth, I think that's a really good outlook for the U.S.
Four percent would be a massive move.
There's a lot of uncertainty right now but I could just as easily see that uncertainty being clarified over the coming months, Steven Ciobo, the Australian minister for trade said in Davos.
Even if after this we come back to the old ways, at least we had a debate, we've had the controversy, it's crazy, it's madness, but why not? Shaking up things once in a while is good.
Multilateral trade has served us very well.
The current situation – as unsettling as it might be for us technocrat elites – is actually the most interesting time I can remember in easily a decade. I think it may end up being surprisingly useful that President Trump is coming in and shaking things up to such an extent.
I am cautiously optimistic.
There is no doubt we need to adapt. All car makers have to revise their strategy as a function of what is coming.
In the last two years I have observed a number of incredible innovations in China, you see that in many high-tech sectors.
Also in transportation, in aircraft even - highly sophisticated technology. I think they are really addressing the innovation of tomorrow in a more sustainable way. They are really serious about it. You look at the rules they are putting in place for the cities to reduce pollution.
Brexit, respectable but regrettable. It's a wake-up call for us. We need to co-operate more because union is the best way to co-operate for our member states. Second, of course Europe will be there, and I can tell Joe Stiglitz, that hopefully, Euro will also be there. But we need to do what's necessary for it to be capable of creating convergence between our economies.
Simply put, Mr Putin has a different vision of the future. It seeks to return to a world where the strong pulls this world to its military might, corruption and criminality while weaker nations have to fall in line.
With 3D printing, for example, some of the supply chain will reshore and come back to the local economies. I think we will see supply chains becoming more regional.
The basic message is to be more national, don't just be global. Let's try and pre-empt that tweet by having a long-term discussion about the supply chain.
That is a result of more wealth accumulating at the top and people moving down. With lower growth, more inequality, and much more transparency, I think you have good ingredients for what is now identified as a crisis of the middle class in the advanced economies.
Of all the speakers we're getting, either from Davos or from less ostentatious spots, the one I'm going to listen to most for now will probably still be Janet Yellen. As the U.S. economy approaches full employment, as wages rise but inflation rises nearly as quickly, how hawkish the Fed dares to be will determine how much the dollar rises.
We want to go on being that kind of open, welcoming society which people choose as a venue to do their business.
Obviously we can't be in the full customs union because the restrictions that implies goes beyond the political imperatives from a UK point of view.
But we have a lot of reasons on both sides of this discussion to want to try and maintain the most frictionless border system possible.
The issue on Trump is what you win on the U.S. swings, you may lose on the international roundabouts.
It could mean increased investment in the U.S.
"The easing of sanctions will reopen cheap foreign capital markets again for Russian companies,". "It will stimulate local business, allow the central bank to cut interest rates and as a result spur Russia's GDP growth.".
"This is one of the most positive forums in the last few years. Today our Western counterparties - bankers and investors - can talk freely again about investments in Russia,"
We are going to increase investment, we are going to have lot of new cars coming, better batteries, better performance, lower prices.
Commodity prices are strong, which for us could limit the strong dollar effect.
The pace of 75 bps (per meeting) is our new pace but at some point it may change.
With automation... certainly there are going to be jobs that will be displaced, but most jobs will be impacted by technology in terms of specific tasks within the job that will change.
Bottom line is I think this is going to be a tougher transition than we are recognizing. Long term, (there is) optimism but a lot of the fear out there that you are seeing and hearing deals with this retraining if you can't keep up with technological improvements.
Employment, prosperity, wealth and automation goes hand in hand if deployed in the responsible way.
But overall, the actual job description we believe in the end is not going to be as dramatic as some have mentioned... so we have an optimistic view on (automation) and it is confirmed by our research.
Populism is not just the belief that there is a wealth gap ... But it's also a sense that they don't represent me. It's a matter of nationalism, it's a matter of getting greater control. It's a matter of increased polarity - the left becomes more left, the right becomes more right - and that particular dynamic, I would say that this is the first year where populism is the most important issue globally.
It did not get much traction.
Well, I hope people will listen now.
But if the Chinese really believe in globalism, and they really believe in the words of Lincoln, they have to reach now towards us and allow us to create this symmetry, because the path to globalism in the world is through the American worker and the American middle class.
Asia is still the powerhouse for growth. Obviously China we heard about their vision for globalization. We're in China, we are growing in China and we see real opportunities for both Chinese domestic work … but also outbound work from Chinese companies.
I think you heard yesterday from the President himself, that they have found a way for making globalization work for China and this is the next iteration. Having that center stage yesterday explaining the vision for China, it's coming into a new era.
I don't know how much interest or time he's really spent in the developing world engaging with these issues and so I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt. At a certain point, our work isn't dependent on the political winds and we just have to keep doing the work that we're doing.
President Trump could be one of the last, great hopes for globalism because he is focused on something that we have to fix internally in the United states in order to create a more burgeoning market.
I think that's the fear out there. I think we just got to let it play out for a while.
The easing of sanctions will reopen cheap foreign capital markets again for Russian companies. It will stimulate local business, allow the central bank to cut interest rates and as a result spur Russia's GDP growth.
I cannot discuss sanctions... As far as the meeting is concerned, we have a feeling the new administration is ready to support business and economic contacts between Russian and U.S. companies. This is an important step towards mutual understanding.
I see that foreign investors are ready again to buy the Russian risk. This year, we will see new portfolio investors ... we will see more share flotations, the Eurobond market will also develop very actively.
We would like to see more reform and decline in political risk but we are not convinced (this will happen). So we are mildly positive in Russia.
This is one of the most positive forums in the last few years. Today our Western counterparties - bankers and investors - can talk freely again about investments in Russia.
Investment will also be flowing into the rouble bond market and the rouble carry trade will also likely continue.
You see Xi Jingping, the president of China, going to join Davos to show how much he supports the market-based economy. China from now on is going to perform against what Donald Trump is going to do.
It has a lot to do with hospital infrastructure. You can't administer modern cancer medicines if you don't have sophisticated lab facilities. We're going to institutionalise cooperation in this area.
Financial services in London generate 1.3 billion euros of lending into European companies. Of that, 70 percent of that comes from banks – UK banks or overseas banks that take advantage of London as a base. That is going to be a critical part of any transition arrangements – because if it's not sorted out, if it's not agreed and negotiated, the real risk to the European economy is they will see a real slowdown in their bank-driven capital growth.
I think (May) needed to get out and lay out the road map and I think she did a pretty good job with that.
She's fairly clearly said, okay here is where (the U.K.) is going and surprise, surprise... the markets reacted (and) they cheered so in that sense there is more certainty now which is a good thing.
I think (the idea of a transitional Brexit) is very welcome, it is something that the CBI and our members have been arguing for a while now... the danger of that sudden cliff-edge change is damaging for business so the commitment to an interim period (or) an adjustment period is extremely welcome.
You start to say this is a pretty interesting world where you have the president of China quoting the great American president.
The conclusion to reach is that the business and growth model which worked for many countries, especially in Asia, won't provide the same growth opportunities as before.
Regardless of how you view Trump and his positions, his election has led to a deep, deep sense of uncertainty and that will cast a long shadow over Davos.
Commitment is not a word, it's an action. And people are coming here and at least trying to the best of their abilities to figure out the challenges ahead. It's not just governments doing this, it's not just business, it's not just the academics or the social entrepreneurs. It's actually all of them, coming together – because we have to think about this collectively.
There is a consensus that something huge is going on, global and in many respects unprecedented. But we don't know what the causes are, nor how to deal with it.
All we're asking for now is to create more symmetry in these trade agreements. (Globalism) It's hollowed out American manufacturing, it's hurt the American middle class and it's crippled the American working class ... We have to come up with policies to change that.
Because if you can create rising wages in that part of the world ... You can create more purchasing power and the virtuous circle of consumption that will lead to more global trade and it will lead to more global peace and more global prosperity.
We can hope that China in this new world will assume a responsive and responsible leadership role. So in some ways it is very symbolic to have the president of China here.
Such rosy results have led more countries to become interested in free trade talks, and even some have asked me for the agreement text sealed by China and Switzerland. I'm sure every country that enters such a trade arrangement with China will become a winner.
You're in a world of uncertainty, low growth, very little pricing power, because there's very little inflation … and that eventually will bring a problem prior to the next presidential election.
We all talk to one another in this bubble here in Davos, echo chamber in London, and it's true of the East Coast, West Coast liberals. In terms of their businesses, in terms of their regulation,in terms of intervention, I think most industries favored a more Republican route … so it's a question about why were the pollsters wrong. Because nobody really told them the truth.
The more guidance and direction we get now the better interms of certainty. We at Lloyds have our plans in place to go onshore in the EU with a subsidiary to allow the market to continue to operate whatever the outcome of the negotiations.
The message that we want,and others want, is clarity.
They all are under pressure to act strong but in a multilateral world, not everybody can look strong–someone has to give, and the question now is who's gonna give?
We should hope and pray that we don't get unnecessary action on that front.
The overarching risks facing Asia is the end of the consensus between China and the U.S. on the mutual benefits of global trade.
Water is our number one ingredient so we are very water-conscious.
The poorest of the poor pay more than the middle class in many countries as they were shut out of the infrastructure.
People want to participate in their own solution, they want a hand up not a hand out.
We want to have a phenomenal relationship with the Chinese. The new administration does not want a trade war. We would like to have a process of free and fair trade.
The more jobs you destroy in México, the more immigrants the American people will have.
There is a missed-boat aspect for industrial output especially for Africa.
The two countries will strive to maintain world peace and stability, promote common development and jointly maintain a global trade system which is open and tolerant. We will push global governance toward a fairer and more reasonable direction.
That's the big challenge for emerging economies that are only just trying to take off ... it's much harder to do than 20 years ago when all you needed to do was attract investment, produce and export.
We see a lot of hand-wringing - and clearly Trump's victory and Brexit give that new impetus this year - but there is a lack of concrete alternatives to business as usual. There are different ways of running capitalism that could be much, much more beneficial to the majority of the people.
I believe it continues to be important for the World Economic Forum to support the gender parity agenda, but it's also critical to provide more support for female delegates, as they are still in the minority as attendees.
Ideally, in decades to come we will not need to have conversations about gender parity because there will be tremendous leaps forward. But for now, it is imperative that we all take a stance on this issue and double down to help bring about change.
There's a sense that the system is broken. The most shocking statistic of this whole study is that half the people who are high-income, college-educated and well-informed also believe the system doesn't work.
Whereas, more authoritarian regimes, they believe in business....So they think of Davos as an arena for influence for the people who matter.
People will be asking, Will he say anything about Trump? He would want to play his cards close to his chest at this stage. It would not make sense for him to say anything about Trump at the moment.
Bear in mind that elites, bankers and top businessmen are not usually popular with voters in democracies, so I can see that democratically elected leaders don't rush to show themselves in Davos.
I think right now they must be very busy watching and wondering what will come next. But I have no doubt that he (Xi) will try to portray China as open, corporatist, stable, predictable, reliable on a number of global issues. Even if he doesn't cite the Trump administration, he'll try to project a contrast.
This is the key uncertainty because you don't know how much the rhetoric is a ploy to get better deals. I'm worried about the people he is surrounding himself with. If they have a more protectionist world view and believe the reason the U.S. is not doing well is because others are cheating that creates a certain kind of rhetoric that could end up very badly for the world.
Just when you think the euro zone is stable it might turn out not to be. If U.S. interest rates continue to rise and the dollar appreciates against the euro it's going to start getting very hard for (ECB President) Mario Draghi to tell the story that he's doing QE to prop up inflation. If he ever slows down on QE, the vulnerabilities of the periphery countries are huge.
It is no coincidence that Xi chose this year to make the trip up the magic mountain.
China is still one of the biggest risks and I think the only reason it is not at the top of the list is that the United States has become such a locust of uncertainty.
I am more optimistic than last year. If no major political or geopolitical uncertainties materialize and derail the world economy, it might even surprise to the upside in 2017.
They are more concerned about more things, as the world has become more complicated. The risks that they are worried about are longer-term risks.
Economically, most clients we talk to are less worried and even some are bullish. But the geopolitical risk, everyone, their eyebrows go up. They say they don't know.
What hasn't been listened to in Davos is persistent warnings from people like Klaus that the benefits need to shared, and that you can't have winner-take-all capitalism.
It's our response to how capitalism has failed us – and how we need to fix it.
We always want the most comprehensive political attendance in Davos, to help support public-private cooperation, which is what we do. That inevitably means current, serving political figures. There are politicians in office now – and coming to Davos –– who reflect this emergent agenda that you've seen in the U.S.
"They have witnessed the rise of the Davos class, a hyper-connected network of banking and tech billionaires, elected leaders who are awfully cozy with those interests, and Hollywood celebrities who make the whole thing seem unbearably glamorous,"
Political surprises may fundamentally alter the currently favourable economic and financial outlook for 2017.
The benefits of globalization are there to see, in jobs in China, India and many emerging markets. Billions of people owe better lives to it.
Trump's election victory is a clear indication that the majority of people are not interested in a world government, but want to return to a classical, local democracy. Strange as it may seem to the Davos men, most people tend to love their 'patria,' the land of their fathers.
It is too early to give the all clear. This cyclical upswing hides but does not solve the world's underlying structural problems, which are excessive debt, over-reliance on monetary policy, and adverse demographic developments.
The state of global politics is worse than it's been in a long time. At a time when we need more coordination to tackle issues like climate change and other systemic risks, we are getting more and more insular.
The mainstream corporate types don't want Trump and far-right authoritarians. They want a sustainable global economy in which they can do business. More and more of them are sensible enough to realise that they have overreached.
It is going to be a long haul in persuading a lot of people that there is a different approach. But you don't have to throw the baby out with the bath water.
If you want to find people who are going to rally together and say capitalism is fundamentally broken, Davos is not the place to go.
They are not containers actually and even less 'shipping containers' as some wrote but temporary wood structures like these.
There are open channels of communication. Trade protectionism will lead to self-isolationism and it is in the interests of no one.
This tour will provide many great opportunities to engage directly with Canadians, and will now be taking place over a longer period than previously planned.
The problems we face technologically, economically,socially and politically are so tremendous, such that sustainable solutions require a systemic, holistic approach .... And particularly the collaboration of all global stakeholders, united in one mission - improving the state of the world.
Without economic development, social progress is not possible and without social progress, economic development is not sustainable. Every simplified approach to deal with the global complex agenda is condemned to fail.
We are at some kind of a turning point of history – we need new concepts, we do not have the solutions or the intellectual concepts for everything which we confront. We have to be modest and provide the young generation with the possibility even more to make a contribution.
With the rise of populism, protectionism, and nativism, the world has come to a historic crossroad where one road leads to war, poverty, confrontation and domination while the other road leads to peace, development, cooperation and win-win solutions.
Many of these risks have been highlighted in past reports, except now they are moving in the direction of having a higher impact.
(People) have witnessed the rise of the Davos class, a hyper-connected network of banking and tech billionaires, elected leaders who are awfully cosy with those interests (neoliberal policies), and Hollywood celebrities who make the whole thing seem unbearably glamorous.
As you may know, the Prime Minister will soon be embarking upon a town hall tour across different regions of our country in order to meet with and remain connected to Canadians, at home and in their communities. This tour will provide many great opportunities to engage directly with Canadians, and will now be taking place over a longer period than previously planned.
The forum is a prime opportunity to highlight Canada's strength as a place to invest, grow, and establish new business opportunities – and our ministers will be doing that work and building new relationships.
During a trip to Davos in January 2015, amid about 20 people, I made a comment to a journalist about her clothing and put my hand on her back. There was no aggressive or sexual intent in my conduct but the mere fact that the person was shocked shows that those words and this gesture were inappropriate, and I was, and still am, sorry.
You need to have a strategic vision. These reforms are not reforms per se. They are part of a broader picture of diversifying the economy, bringing about more growth, creating employment and I think Kazakhstan has had this big vision.
We are working very hard and we are looking forward to doing some more steps that, next year at the Davos forum, we can see some additional achievements that we can do in the future.
I was very impressed today with the point that was made that if you stop reforming it doesn't mean the country will stand still. It will go backwards. It is very important to continue the very strong reforms.
We don't yet have a handle on costs, but I'm sure the one definite winner out of the referendum, whichever way it goes, will be lawyers and advisory firms we'd all have to hire to make sure we have every base covered.
Timing is critical.
And even though you don't think it's going to happen, as a leader you've got to have a backup plan.
Although Africa contributes the lowest share of carbon emissions, it is the continent most susceptible to climate change. Its unique vulnerability is exacerbated by widespread poverty.
Winter came late to Davos this year and there are fears over the shorter ski seasons of the future. But for now, the snow and the sun are here to be enjoyed.
Climate change undermines development gains. If we do not properly police this Paris agreement, then the remaining 16 sustainable development goals will be undermined.
We have problems today in Europe because of some hundreds of thousands of people emigrating. But if it is a question of thousands of millions of people, what will happen?
There are some concerns about the Chinese financial structure – banking structure – but if you look at the world generally the strength, the financial strength, of financial institutions is much stronger than it was say seven or 10 years ago.
The drop of oil prices, the Chinese economy slowing down, tightening liquidities of the bank, all are affecting the economy. I hope the picture will look brighter as we go on in the year, but for the moment it doesn't look bright.
What I myself am nervous about is that if we continue to get these market jolts it will begin to undermine consumer confidence in some of the developed world.
The World Economic Forum has described the 4th Industrial Revolution as a 'tsunami' of technological advances that will transform our economy. But what of the impact on the labour market? Where will the work come from for all those people now doing jobs that will disappear as they are replaced by machines?
If you think about the 3rd Industrial Revolution, that was really computerisation – that was the digital age that started around mid-20th century. And what we're seeing is that the 4th Industrial Revolution is really building on that with all these exciting technologies, whether it's biotech, artificial intelligence, 3D printing – all of these different, exciting things that are coming together.
This year's Davos theme looks to the transformation of the world economy over the decades ahead – but it's the challenges of the 'here and now' that are set to dominate the discussions. 2016 has begun with several warnings about the global economy and the rockiest January for the financial markets that many here can remember.
China's poor policy response to its financial troubles is probably a big near-term risk [for the global economy]. I don't think it will lead to a global recession – but it creates a lot of investor anxiety and has been creating these ripple effects across the financial world.
Last month in Paris world leaders reached an historic agreement that provides concrete framework for carbon emissions. This is an important first step but we're a long way off from claiming victory in the fight for our future and for the survival of our planet. The Paris agreement was a call to action but it's now up to all of us to build this progress with ingenuity and a commitment to change.
Europe and North America are doing okay but if you look at many emerging markets, there are real concerns. We're seeing the impact on commodities, especially oil, and that is going to have major ramifications. The energy sector is what has got everybody as nervous as anything else.
You've got the second largest economy in the world that until now has seen very, very good growth rates when many others were really struggling, and now we are seeing a real slowdown. There are big concerns with regard to currency and the stockmarket, and there are real questions about what this means for China's ability to transform its economy.
It's change that can broaden opportunity, or widen inequality. And whether we like it or not, the pace of this change will only accelerate.
Almost every risk is now up over the last couple of years and it paints an overall environment of unrest.
It is not on the table at this moment. We have to look at the situation – if indeed the situation deteriorates any further. At the moment at least we need to remain with the present sanctions.
Well, the feelings are running high in terms of this terrible crash. The Netherlands has been asked by the world to lead the independent investigation, and I expect results over the course of this year and that means that I cannot at all assume who might be behind this, who has done this. I know there are many theories around, but I really have to be silent on this.
Yes, I think so, I do believe so. The Minsk process, the peace process, means that Europe is really taking leadership in solving this.
Ángel Gurría, Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has said here in Davos that an ECB stimulus package could really give Europe a shove in the right direction, economically speaking. Your take on that?
Business as usual for the elite isn't a cost free option. Failure to tackle inequality will set the fight against poverty back decades. The poor are hurt twice by rising inequality – they get a smaller share of the economic pie and because extreme inequality hurts growth, there is less pie to be shared around.
We would definitely like to see constructive dialogue – what we have in Russia, for example, with the Russian government … trying to find ways to provide economic growth, rather than trying to blame each other. I think that is a way which will lead nowhere.
I think that the economies are looking in the wrong direction. They shouldn't look at the financial side of the development, but to the scientific explosion that will take place. It is not the pockets that enrich our brains, it is our brains that fills our pockets.
The web at the moment is only used by 20% of the world. People think it is a wonderful thing that everyone can access, NO, not everyone can access it.
For us one area that we are focusing on at Interpol is that we are going to create the world's first International Anti-corruption Academy, so that police around the world can learn via the Internet and e-learning on how to prevent crimes from occurring involving corruption.
We heard today, here at the World Economic Forum, both Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, saying monetary union needs an economic union which needs a political union – that is the logic of the situation. My own view is that most European countries are not ready to follow that logic to the end including Germany which is clearly not ready.
While there has been a temporary glitch in confidence in the European idea and in the euro, the fact of the matter is that it has provided an opportunity for China to invest significantly in euro assets, both at a sovereign level and private sector investment is increasing as well.
A major recession or a stock market downturn has a lot of implications beyond pure economic reasons, so frankly if we would not be debating this here then we would not be doing our job either, and I think, especially here, we can look at it in a much more holistic way than we would in a government view or in a pure economic view.
We foresee a recovery in the second part of the year. It is a situation where you have a positive contagion on the financial market and for the financial variables, but we don't see this being transmitted into the real economy yet.
Well Europe is coming back after five years of decline where the European market slid more than 25 percent. For the first time we have a positive forecast for Europe for 2014. It is not very big, a 1.0 percent increase after a 25 percent decline, but you know it is good to see an inflection in the European market. I think Europe will be on a slow growth mode for the car industry thanks to resuming consumer confidence. So I am cautiously optimistic about the prospect of the European market but nothing is going to be quick nothing is going to be significant for two or three years to come.
It is clear to us that being a global citizen – being able to operate seamlessly in multiple cultures and be effective at all levels of an organisation are the key leadership qualities that we look for.
China is maintaining a much higher growth of the BRICs, much higher because obviously it is the highest growth rate and I think in terms of investments in infrastructure, investments in education – which are the underlying forces of economic growth – they are doing a superb job. I think what Russia, Brazil and India are trying to do is to beef up their investments in infrastructures and education in order to catch up to the growth level they need or that they have the potential to have.
I think it is going to be a year of recovery; that is how I would qualify it. Recovery in Europe, recovery in Japan, recovery in some of the emerging markets which didn't have a great year in 2013 – like Brazil Russia and India where the car market was down. Recovery in the United States where the car market continued to recover to reach the level before 2013 that is how I would qualify it.
Without any doubt China.
President, many thanks for joining us on the programme. Your visit to Davos is historic: it's your first visit to Europe as a head of state; the first visit of an Iranian president to the World Economic Forum in 10 years. You are coming here after many years of mistrust and you are meeting world leaders in business and politics: what are you saying to them?
Well, some here in Davos argue that the spectre of a referendum in Britain brings yet more uncertainty. Others fear complacency and welcome the chance to renegotiate a more competitive view.
Well I have been in the European Council now for more than six years, and there are always differences. I think the idea of the European cooperation is that we can respect this and work together.
Let's not forget the billions of people living below poverty levels with expectations and hopes, who are ready to work hard to have an acceptable standard of living.
I think emerging markets, India and China especially, have to be seen from two perspectives. Number one, they are very large markets by themselves and therefore they would be the reason for market rebanging back into a growth market. So, attractiveness from that point of view. And then there is a diverse innovation that you should watch for.
The resilience piece is really the fact that in an interdependent world there's going to be future shocks and that you really have to be able to bounce back rather than try to anticipate or predict them, the dynamism side is really about the fact that you have to take some risks to get to a better future. It's a combination of being aware of the risks but at the same time taking some bold action. That's what the theme is this year.
Before the summit in Davos, one of the big issues, and it's moving so quickly now, was rating agencies and their downgrade of several European countries. How credible are the rating agencies in your opinion, because they have made some colossal mistakes in the past?
Probably the moment when I met a good old friend that I didn't imagine that I could meet here. He is now CEO of a large company. We met in other lives – but it was a very good moment, a very emotional moment.
Well first of all, what we have done for 12 years is we have been very, very successful. It is an evidence based programme so there is no guess work anymore. Our children learn how their brains work, they understand how to take a brain break during the day, they understand stress, they become self-aware and they have a neurological corelet now because their emotions now have context. So they can regulate their emotion, they can handle their stress and they understand how to become empathetic and engage in the classroom.
I think businesses are putting cash into their compassion. And you see this every year – the commitments that are made at Davos. And they continue to make those commitments throughout the year.
I don't see deflation in the euro area.
In the last few months we have observed a stream of survey data which is becoming more and more solid. So we are seeing the beginning of a recovery which is still weak, which is still fragile and it is still uneven. It's a recovery that is primarily driven by exports, but now we see a gradual spreading to consumption, but it's a recovery.
Our message is 'Don't let them decide for you.' And we're not putting this slogan in front of them, in front of the self-called global leaders, but in front of everyone else, of the 99 per cent.
He's steely, determined, soft-spoken, persuasive. He's the ultimate networker. He is really, if you like, Davos man. He's a member of all those inner circles around the world where the power elites meet and he's highly regarded in those circles.
What's brought me here – and I've had the great fortune to be able to come here several times – is to first and foremost understand what the zeitgeist is: what are people talking about this year? Is it going to be US engagement, is it going to be the financial crisis? Obviously, I'm also very interested in women's role here.
I'm here as chairman of the group on well-being and mental health, so I'm trying to get across to participants here the importance of the right kind of recovery. I think everybody feels that the euro crisis is not completely behind us by any means, but that we are past the worst. And as we go into the recovery, trying to make sure that the recovery benefits everybody and that we look after not just increasing GDP, but increasing the well-being of the population.
I don't think you can suddenly stop the reform process because you are going to have an election. I think if you now see who are the most successful leaders that really picked it up,- picked the ball up and ran with it – they are the ones who are inspiring their people, they are the ones who are leading who are having the courage to say, we need reform.
One cannot deny that it is a place to network, that's a fact. What's more important is the exchanging of ideas. So I see this as a platform where leaders can come together, exchange ideas and see how we can change the world for a better place.
This year's World Economic Forum is boldly entitled 'The Reshaping of the World'. Although the eurozone economy as a whole has finally returned to growth, Europe's political and business leaders are bracing themselves for a year of new challenges.
Crisis brings you together for a moment, but I believe in the year ahead that Europe really has to come together – to kick-start, jump-start, refresh that vision. That's something I hope they can work on and sort out here in Davos.
The banking sector is clearly benefiting from the tremendous initiatives being taken by governments and by central banks. But there's also a risk of the timing and the impact of the exit strategies which is an unknown to all of us because we've never gone through that.
We directed it to investments in research and development, in a 'put work first' principle. And also combined with very active labour policy, on-the-job training and measures like that. I think that has given us a position where we were trying to increase mobility, and to give resources to what was to come, not so much give money to what has been.
Well it was a referendum so it was the Swedish people who said 'No'. And of course now the Swedish krona is very strong, but I think for the future the euro is a very good idea. It keeps Europe together, so I'm not certain that given some time we might not have a new discussion again.
Well, first of all we did not give our taxpayer's money to banks, we did not give it to cover costs or losses in non-competitive industries or companies.
Well, it's very hectic. I came in last night, and I stay until tomorrow morning. I will be on panels, I have a few meetings on my own, I'm meeting with President Calderon from Mexico and Trichet, the ECB President, so for me it's very good use of working hours, and very hectic.
Well it comes out that David (Cameron) and I know each other, and we are fairly the same age, and both of us became prime ministers, and we have talked to each other through this period, and therefore, of course, learned from each other. I've listened to David about a lot of his climate engagements, and he has been discussing a lot with me on the education reforms that we have done in Sweden for instance.
If we don't change banking rules, if we don't change accounting rules….it is not only a technical matter, it is not only a matter for experts…..where do we want capitalism to go?
We have to have austerity measures, we have to cut back this rocketing budget deficits, because it is not only a problem for this generation it is a load on the next generation. And we have to do that also by showing to the people that there is light in the tunnel, that there is a hope, that there is a way out. And the biggest wealth Europeans have is this huge market of 500 million potential consumers.
It's time now to call all the good will and to make peace a fact in the Holy Land.